Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, May 10, 2023

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DAY 222 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/11/2023 04:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 52.63°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 33.75°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 43.19°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.683 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 21 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 311 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.13 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.51 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.32 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.83 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 132 in SWE DAY: 129 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 448.85 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 59.16 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -63 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 9.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-05-11 04:00:08	OBSERVATION	2023	222	-63	52.62998	33.74996	43.18997	131.80747916667	0.13	0.51	2.32	2.83	F	F	20.62998	310.62998	129	448.85493722843	59.162437787592	0.68255210200787	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2023-05-11 00:00:01	FORECAST	2023	222	-62	46.382	29.156	37.769	131.2229352	0.03149608	0.41149608	2.32	2.73149608	F	F	14.382	304.382	130	449.19961588673	58.945292087369	0.45728854902465	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-05-10 12:00:01	FORECAST	2023	222	-62	45.482	29.372	37.427	132.2529472	0.00787402	0.38787402	2.32	2.70787402	F	F	13.482	303.482	130	449.58814190562	59.45935679319	0.42421654935818	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-05-10 08:00:01	FORECAST	2023	222	-62	45.734	29.552	37.643	132.2309056	0.05511814	0.43511814	2.32	2.75511814	F	F	13.734	303.734	130	449.57983833532	59.448349162581	0.43343333875019	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-05-10 04:00:14	FORECAST	2023	222	-62	47.246	30.164	38.705	132.4127501	0.02755907	0.40755907	2.32	2.72755907	F	F	15.246	305.246	130	449.64832937893	59.539171870935	0.48932151635285	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-05-10 00:00:02	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	46.886	31.082	38.984	132.737036	0.0393701	0.0893701	2.32	2.4093701	F	F	14.886	302.886	129	449.20642859222	59.626329883477	0.47595414630897	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2023-05-09 20:00:02	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	46.022	30.2	38.111	133.1782616	0.03149608	0.08149608	2.32	2.40149608	F	F	14.022	301.022	129	449.37297806976	59.846712029346	0.44401102359229	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2023-05-09 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	47.21	28.976	38.093	133.1133176	0.04724412	0.09724412	2.32	2.41724412	F	F	15.21	302.21	129	449.34847536403	59.814266314207	0.48798399101401	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-05-09 12:00:02	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	46.436	28.832	37.634	132.894968	0.05905515	0.10905515	2.32	2.42905515	F	F	14.436	301.436	129	449.26606465172	59.705199285376	0.45928466637866	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-05-09 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	46.904	31.514	39.209	132.778364	0.09448824	0.14448824	2.32	2.46448824	F	F	14.904	301.904	129	449.22203660111	59.646967092643	0.47662199775681	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-05-09 04:00:10	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	46.562	31.388	38.975	132.83581287143	0.09448824	0.15448824	2.32	2.47448824	F	F	14.562	302.562	129	449.24373012657	59.675656068756	0.46394618066725	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-05-09 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	48.074	30.668	39.371	134.48282438167	0.05118113	0.28118113	2.32	2.60118113	F	F	16.074	304.074	129	449.86432114078	60.499024495555	0.52008729274323	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-08 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	47.156	30.434	38.795	134.76188553034	0.01574804	0.29574804	2.32	2.61574804	F	F	15.156	302.156	129	449.96921391831	60.638699698237	0.48597796107736	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-05-08 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	47.804	29.498	38.651	134.7324112	0.02362206	0.29362206	2.32	2.61362206	F	F	15.804	302.804	129	449.95813869517	60.623944965465	0.51005921737031	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-08 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	47.48	30.758	39.119	134.5202446453	0.00787402	0.27787402	2.32	2.59787402	F	F	15.48	302.48	129	449.87839088881	60.517751202997	0.49801768628181	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-05-08 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	46.256	29.606	37.931	134.85691635859	0.00787402	0.33787402	2.32	2.65787402	F	F	14.256	300.256	129	450.0049168914	60.686275438176	0.45263521600348	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-05-08 04:00:12	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	46.328	29.696	38.012	134.54162202785	0.01574804	0.36574804	2.32	2.68574804	F	F	14.328	299.328	129	449.8864280296	60.528449755417	0.4552935085683	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-05-08 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	46.112	29.57	37.841	135.8425823458	0.01181103	0.36181103	2.19	2.55181103	F	F	14.112	298.112	129	450.37472266578	61.180065350193	0.44732511204159	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-05-07 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	45.968	30.236	38.102	135.62753153081	0.03543309	0.44543309	2.18	2.62543309	F	F	13.968	300.968	129	450.29411805845	61.072279695112	0.44202443285149	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-05-07 12:00:02	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	44.51	30.362	37.436	136.45823461831	0.05118113	0.44118113	2.18	2.62118113	F	F	12.51	294.51	129	450.60523603688	61.488795019359	0.38909546038446	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-05-07 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	44.69	30.38	37.535	136.00877754741	0.02755907	0.41755907	2.17	2.58755907	F	F	12.69	298.69	129	450.43698522598	61.263383722724	0.39554052250915	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-05-07 04:00:11	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	46.382	29.228	37.805	135.22775822259	0	0.24	2.1	2.34	F	F	14.382	299.382	129	450.14415935047	60.871985545955	0.45728854902465	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-05-07 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	43.484	29.786	36.635	136.01840157437	0	0.41	1.96	2.37	F	F	11.484	295.484	129	450.44058991952	61.268209045071	0.35298703375914	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-05-06 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	43.502	30.254	36.878	136.67074491291	0	0.51	1.96	2.47	F	F	11.502	293.502	129	450.68472078332	61.595416510323	0.35361031831187	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-05-06 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	43.052	29.318	36.185	137.19293021543	0	0.64	1.94	2.58	F	F	11.052	294.052	129	450.87985043353	61.85752785607	0.33814981794075	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-05-06 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	44.006	28.94	36.473	136.29679785981	0	0.48	1.96	2.44	F	F	12.006	293.006	129	450.54482552742	61.407817011694	0.37121607348162	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-05-06 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	44.06	28.562	36.311	136.60930108128	0	0.51	1.97	2.48	F	F	12.06	293.06	129	450.66174349446	61.56458580285	0.37311924995652	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-05-06 04:00:11	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	44.96	28.76	36.86	137.08562270791	0	0.85	1.91	2.76	F	F	12.96	296.96	129	450.83977300287	61.803651023592	0.40526137551804	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-05-06 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	41.936	28.328	35.132	140.46854156573	0	0.87	1.97	2.84	F	F	9.936	291.936	129	452.09799131974	63.50554548548	0.3010100289251	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-05-05 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	43.88	30.83	37.355	136.74362596886	0	0.78	1.99	2.77	F	F	11.88	300.88	129	450.71197044175	61.631989105773	0.36678762441404	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-05-05 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	44.132	30.722	37.427	135.39837156545	0	0.54	1.99	2.53	F	F	12.132	301.132	129	450.20817663774	60.9574539822	0.37566163309653	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-05-05 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	39.542	29.408	34.475	137.59861857271	0	0.36	2.09	2.45	F	F	7.542	295.542	129	451.03126908751	62.061279559538	0.22826458688745	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-05 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	37.328	28.076	32.702	138.20848307462	0	0.41	2.12	2.53	F	F	5.328	289.328	129	451.25860083185	62.367766695345	0.17081860658045	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-05 04:00:11	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	38.048	30.524	34.286	138.90599051984	0	0.24	2.18	2.42	F	F	6.048	291.048	129	451.51817083585	62.718578757658	0.18839741195005	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-05 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	39.83	30.146	34.988	139.60210900397	0	0.41	2.2	2.61	F	F	7.83	287.83	129	451.77676585869	63.068989312864	0.23646022193815	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-04 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	39.02	29.912	34.466	143.1517585759	0	0.3	2.32	2.62	F	F	7.02	278.02	129	453.08830761159	64.860388024776	0.21382427048388	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-04 16:00:08	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	37.202	29.75	33.476	142.63792071013	0	0.23	2.24	2.47	F	F	5.202	276.202	129	452.89918350432	64.600597826371	0.16785356661674	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-04 12:00:06	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	35.24	25.988	30.614	142.45137341772	0	0.28	2.36	2.64	F	F	3.24	270.24	129	452.83046146964	64.506321161729	0.12597137602509	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-04 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	37.238	27.068	32.153	142.12778603491	0	0.3	2.41	2.71	F	F	5.238	278.238	129	452.7111780685	64.342837452133	0.16869732858582	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-04 04:00:15	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	38.714	26.294	32.504	142.46585064547	0	0.24	2.36	2.6	F	F	6.714	280.714	129	452.83579589163	64.513636864417	0.20561210800604	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-04 00:00:07	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	43.142	30.722	36.932	140.86712007426	0	0.05	2.69	2.74	F	F	11.142	275.142	129	452.24552503614	63.706524678313	0.34122118466492	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2023-05-03 20:00:06	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	43.97	30.236	37.103	144.38201879708	0.07086618	0.07086618	2.65	2.72086618	F	F	11.97	283.97	129	453.5401177264	65.483037802802	0.36994903254197	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2023-05-03 16:00:07	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	42.62	27.986	35.303	144.95848893114	0.21653555	0.21653555	2.62	2.83653555	F	F	10.62	276.62	129	453.75133971758	65.775108555943	0.32355966890001	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-05-03 12:00:08	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	42.944	28.616	35.78	144.04291139515	0.1574804	0.2674804	2.94	3.2074804	F	F	10.944	274.944	129	453.41572225941	65.311320706582	0.33447835350265	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-05-03 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	43.25	28.04	35.645	143.59536032424	0.15354339	0.24354339	2.88	3.12354339	F	F	11.25	277.25	129	453.251382071	65.084795525943	0.34492073296192	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-05-03 04:00:20	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	37.274	29.768	33.521	148.29183491521	0.42126007	0.77126007	2.85	3.62126007	T	F	5.274	261.274	129	454.96665090969	67.467839488628	0.16954380480493	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-03 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	35.834	29.516	32.675	146.93071193393	0.89370127	0.98370127	2.43	3.41370127	T	F	3.834	262.834	129	454.47163905204	66.775841479695	0.13780354875471	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-02 20:00:07	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	36.482	30.758	33.62	151.26792501522	0.89763828	0.97763828	2.31	3.28763828	T	F	4.482	258.482	129	456.0430490067	68.984685740859	0.15154900239445	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-02 16:00:07	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	46.4	33.008	39.704	145.78812620032	0.54330738	0.62330738	2.32	2.94330738	F	F	14.4	271.4	129	454.05478128354	66.195795755623	0.45795380428638	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-05-02 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	36.896	31.604	34.25	146.44609967268	1.22441011	1.22441011	2.29	3.51441011	T	F	4.896	262.896	129	454.29498220804	66.529728245236	0.16079126554317	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-02 08:00:07	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	36.158	31.208	33.683	148.11688068968	1.36614247	1.36614247	2.4	3.76614247	T	F	4.158	261.158	129	454.90311953937	67.378831082177	0.14456654236918	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-02 04:00:15	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	38.39	32.288	35.339	146.74951373989	1.07086672	1.18086672	2.75	3.93086672	T	F	6.39	265.39	129	454.40561190058	66.683802587086	0.19712382994504	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-02 00:00:06	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	41.684	29.12	35.402	143.65135926161	0	0.15	2.04	2.19	F	F	9.684	267.684	129	453.27195503684	65.113132456211	0.29288441370301	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-05-01 20:00:07	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	37.418	26.474	31.946	146.78487341092	0.1181103	0.3381103	2.31	2.6481103	F	F	5.418	251.418	129	454.41849906432	66.701761860736	0.1729568351887	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-01 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	41.504	29.318	35.411	149.9351352364	0.22047256	1.02047256	2.28	3.30047256	T	F	9.504	261.504	129	455.56200888126	68.304751410177	0.28714340863349	16	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2023-05-01 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	43.682	28.256	35.969	145.6114109831	0.06299216	0.58299216	2.14	2.72299216	F	F	11.682	280.682	129	453.99020090772	66.106153726672	0.35986450291709	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-05-01 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	42.746	27.536	35.141	146.72428626937	0.07480319	0.65480319	1.99	2.64480319	F	F	10.746	272.746	129	454.39641680485	66.67098993905	0.32778846364373	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-05-01 04:00:12	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	54.86	28.976	41.918	147.45801598002	0.06692917	0.62692917	2.15	2.77692917	F	F	22.86	279.86	129	454.66361156576	67.043794099799	0.7525812539741	16	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2023-05-01 00:00:07	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	29.642	24.998	27.32	152.41117944292	0.33858286	0.68858286	2.27	2.95858286	F	F	-2.358	253.642	129	456.45438509695	69.568751194521	0.047617104746305	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-04-30 20:00:06	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	31.838	26.906	29.372	153.70629899999	0.33858286	0.69858286	2.21	2.90858286	F	F	-0.162	247.838	129	456.91892062374	70.231316232148	0.071708840453225	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-04-30 16:00:06	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	26.888	24.206	25.547	154.96564532556	0.04330711	0.56330711	2.91	3.47330711	T	F	-5.112	244.888	129	457.3691619084	70.876507327148	0.027045430068718	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-04-30 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	38.318	34.7	36.509	147.84806245037	0	0.43	3.25	3.68	T	F	6.318	287.318	129	454.80544816737	67.242104303416	0.19526668856455	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-04-30 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	38.318	34.7	36.509	147.38862184091	0	0.48	3.39	3.87	T	F	6.318	282.318	129	454.63836233531	67.008521660609	0.19526668856455	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-04-30 04:00:17	FORECAST	2023	222	-63	41.918	40.694	41.306	143.6553299977	0	0.04	2.78	2.82	F	F	9.918	301.918	129	453.27341370017	65.115141824282	0.30042627254438	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L