morageology.com :: DFH V2

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, May 1, 2023

[ Sunday, April 30, 2023 | Index | Today | Tuesday, May 2, 2023 ]

DAY 213 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/02/2023 04:00:09 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 40.64°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 31.40°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 36.02°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.332 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 9 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 180 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.01 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.01 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 3.75 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 3.76 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: True P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 147 in SWE DAY: 120 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 449.60 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 66.20 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -72 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 2 D₁: 1 D₂: 1 D₃: 1 D₄: 1 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 2.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-05-02 04:00:09	OBSERVATION	2023	213	-72	40.64	31.40006	36.02003	147.24551173913	0.0099999999999909	0.0099999999999909	3.75	3.76	T	F	8.64	179.64	120	449.60017157531	66.201607341607	0.33198013817983	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2023-05-02 00:00:02	FORECAST	2023	213	-71	41.306	29.12	35.213	148.551788	0.00393701	0.00393701	3.75	3.75393701	T	F	9.306	180.306	121	450.65201319391	66.945162325755	0.35544548449896	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2023-05-01 12:00:02	FORECAST	2023	213	-71	40.856	28.616	34.736	148.5603488	0.05118113	0.05118113	3.75	3.80118113	T	F	8.856	179.856	121	450.65521498294	66.949495926404	0.33952403066315	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2023-05-01 08:00:02	FORECAST	2023	213	-71	41.342	29.408	35.375	148.5288608	0.05118113	0.05118113	3.75	3.80118113	T	F	9.342	180.342	121	450.64343794476	66.93355646493	0.35673061096405	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2023-05-01 04:00:08	FORECAST	2023	213	-71	42.224	29.282	35.753	148.45352986667	0.01181103	0.01181103	3.75	3.76181103	T	F	10.224	181.224	121	450.61525909435	66.895425824338	0.38869146506261	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2023-05-01 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	41.342	29.948	35.645	149.5137664	0	0.02	3.75	3.77	T	F	9.342	173.342	120	450.45212472506	67.348793750526	0.35673061096405	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2023-04-30 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	40.586	29.894	35.24	151.5957728	0	0	3.75	3.75	T	F	8.586	173.586	120	451.22981463211	68.404532459555	0.33010460376531	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2023-04-30 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	40.586	29.642	35.114	151.553756	0	0	3.75	3.75	T	F	8.586	173.586	120	451.21416076272	68.383200823979	0.33010460376531	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2023-04-30 12:00:02	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	41.162	29.066	35.114	150.5265584	0	0	3.75	3.75	T	F	9.162	174.162	120	450.83094569163	67.862030675179	0.35032151616773	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2023-04-30 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	40.28	28.832	34.556	150.6816368	0	0	3.75	3.75	T	F	8.28	171.28	120	450.88886465719	67.940672141439	0.31955815743038	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2023-04-30 04:00:14	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	40.442	28.922	34.682	150.31359251667	0	0	3.75	3.75	T	F	8.442	172.442	120	450.7513696156	67.754057698729	0.32512409961747	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2023-04-30 00:00:02	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	40.46	29.642	35.051	150.3548704	0	0	3.75	3.75	T	F	8.46	166.46	120	450.7667967262	67.774983302392	0.32574498117103	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2023-04-29 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	39.452	29.534	34.493	154.6230888	0	0.01	3.75	3.76	T	F	7.452	163.452	120	452.35329284672	69.944263368811	0.29176121896129	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2023-04-29 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	39.164	29.786	34.475	154.74004925495	0.01968505	0.03968505	3.75	3.78968505	T	F	7.164	163.164	120	452.39652537573	70.00386061941	0.28236355473226	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2023-04-29 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	43.934	30.38	37.157	152.67903464202	0.16535442	0.20535442	3.75	3.95535442	T	F	11.934	167.934	120	451.6328207717	68.954863088075	0.45265983443369	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-04-29 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	44.798	30.416	37.607	153.01586108698	0.29133874	0.37133874	3.75	4.12133874	T	F	12.798	167.798	120	451.75790455817	69.126124768818	0.48556596737172	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-04-29 04:00:11	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	45.212	31.874	38.543	151.34452293333	0.18503947	0.28503947	3.75	4.03503947	T	F	13.212	170.212	120	451.13618356292	68.276990479295	0.50138232540307	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-04-29 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	44.258	30.974	37.616	151.16550020838	0.20472452	0.32472452	3.75	4.07472452	T	F	12.258	160.258	120	451.06943227938	68.186136359221	0.46497379246297	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-04-28 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	45.158	31.442	38.3	155.07996256561	0.14960638	0.22960638	3.75	3.97960638	T	F	13.158	160.158	120	452.52209592253	70.177109695776	0.49931891397292	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-04-28 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	46.058	31.838	38.948	154.96011345126	0.13779535	0.19779535	3.75	3.94779535	T	F	14.058	160.058	120	452.47783371665	70.116016446914	0.53366908720121	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-04-28 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	45.392	32.396	38.894	152.95786631801	0.06692917	0.10692917	3.75	3.85692917	T	F	13.392	160.392	120	451.73637526077	69.096632098118	0.50825978639155	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-04-28 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	44.654	31.748	38.201	152.59288097321	0.01181103	0.02181103	3.75	3.77181103	T	F	12.654	161.654	120	451.60080957586	68.911068583013	0.4800686768583	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2023-04-28 04:00:12	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	45.914	32.864	39.389	152.75341020709	0.01968505	0.03968505	3.75	3.78968505	T	F	13.914	162.914	120	451.66045007027	68.992674003903	0.52818323377325	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2023-04-28 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	48.308	31.874	40.091	153.28794185742	0.05118113	0.10118113	3.75	3.85118113	T	F	16.308	160.308	120	451.85886630054	69.264515625238	0.61791358363884	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-04-27 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	47.804	31.46	39.632	157.23856153986	0.02755907	0.02755907	3.75	3.77755907	T	F	15.804	155.804	120	453.31699875845	71.278912806345	0.5993756611352	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2023-04-27 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	42.818	30.38	36.599	158.27539406867	0.04330711	0.05330711	3.75	3.80330711	T	F	10.818	145.818	120	453.697265044	71.809113412718	0.41066426220329	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2023-04-27 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	41	29.156	35.078	156.45968410419	0.03149608	0.05149608	3.75	3.80149608	T	F	9	146	120	453.03068004209	70.881037088891	0.34458946652788	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2023-04-27 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	40.91	28.904	34.907	156.43805614894	0.03149608	0.07149608	3.75	3.82149608	T	F	8.91	146.91	120	453.02272142649	70.869993931264	0.34142023597286	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2023-04-27 04:00:11	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	42.512	29.948	36.23	156.06830540076	0.0393701	0.0793701	3.75	3.8293701	T	F	10.512	148.512	120	452.88659356845	70.68124319695	0.39930521352259	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2023-04-27 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	39.956	28.166	34.061	157.9483808	0	0	3.75	3.75	T	F	7.956	142.956	120	453.57743851854	71.641821981414	0.30854826473219	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2023-04-26 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	39.56	27.356	33.458	160.4839128	0	0	3.75	3.75	T	F	7.56	140.56	120	454.50392547314	72.940568342889	0.29532249672156	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2023-04-26 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	41.288	28.238	34.763	160.3510728	0	0	3.75	3.75	T	F	9.288	142.288	120	454.45553352382	72.87243234044	0.35480353569073	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2023-04-26 12:00:07	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	42.854	29.102	35.978	159.22579752855	0	0.23	3.75	3.98	T	F	10.854	143.854	120	454.04495418675	72.2956699442	0.4120057586795	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-04-26 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	42.71	28.022	35.366	159.5792868543	0	0.27	3.75	4.02	T	F	10.71	140.71	120	454.17405832597	72.476772335383	0.40664609738545	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-04-26 04:00:14	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	40.262	26.78	33.521	159.98006736471	0	0.31	3.75	4.06	T	F	8.262	131.262	120	454.32029437338	72.682191299006	0.3189421894217	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-04-26 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	37.22	26.402	31.811	160.2129784	0	0	3.7	3.7	F	F	5.22	136.22	120	454.4052101497	72.801612118561	0.22300991072536	16	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	DRY	L
2023-04-25 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	37.076	25.88	31.478	161.9407448	0	0	3.7	3.7	F	F	5.076	135.076	120	455.03356108408	73.688473790952	0.2189146706004	16	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	DRY	L
2023-04-25 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	37.994	26.132	32.063	161.443136	0	0	3.7	3.7	F	F	5.994	141.994	120	454.85287426375	73.432874439754	0.24575320065019	16	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	DRY	L
2023-04-25 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	37.796	26.132	31.964	160.5730832	0	0	3.7	3.7	F	F	5.796	141.796	120	454.5363999761	72.986311170791	0.23981944725649	16	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	DRY	L
2023-04-25 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	38.912	27.662	33.287	160.5021368	0	0	3.7	3.7	F	F	6.912	141.912	120	454.51056297468	72.949916555607	0.27426179331327	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2023-04-25 04:00:16	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	37.4	26.51	31.955	160.75696526667	0	0	3.7	3.7	F	F	5.4	135.4	120	454.60334380892	73.080653950802	0.22818967858716	16	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	DRY	L
2023-04-25 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	38.624	25.808	32.216	163.74574381557	0.01968505	0.01968505	3.6	3.61968505	F	F	6.624	138.624	120	455.68706129427	74.616816798761	0.26514527570646	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2023-04-24 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	40.118	26.276	33.197	159.62277207812	0.01968505	0.01968505	3.67	3.68968505	F	F	8.118	143.118	120	454.18993233434	72.499056049182	0.31403253719993	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2023-04-24 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	42.08	24.746	33.413	159.8328592	0	0	3.67	3.67	F	F	10.08	140.08	120	454.26659862877	72.606729297894	0.38341504023918	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2023-04-24 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	38.102	24.746	31.424	161.07519836283	0	0	3.67	3.67	F	F	6.102	144.102	120	454.71912542475	73.243973327166	0.24902266315064	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2023-04-24 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	39.2	24.188	31.694	160.73030923149	0	0	3.66	3.66	F	F	7.2	145.2	120	454.59364138987	73.066976555266	0.28353026966119	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2023-04-24 04:00:14	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	38.066	24.026	31.046	161.28829681083	0	0	3.66	3.66	F	F	6.066	146.066	120	454.79660397472	73.353369650434	0.2479302812246	16	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	DRY	L
2023-04-24 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	44.024	32.306	38.165	165.76537256536	0	0	3.76	3.76	T	F	12.024	148.024	120	456.41472533489	75.657756989456	0.45607632685941	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2023-04-23 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	45.446	32.342	38.894	165.32925189346	0	0	3.68	3.68	F	F	13.446	153.446	120	456.25790867562	75.432778711814	0.51032263898759	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2023-04-23 16:00:08	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	37.04	26.546	31.793	167.26096283697	0	0	3.68	3.68	F	F	5.04	131.04	120	456.95117990906	76.430094321079	0.21789764896601	16	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	DRY	L
2023-04-23 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	35.114	28.526	31.82	170.33642003843	0.36220492	0.36220492	3.66	4.02220492	T	F	3.114	124.114	120	458.04793503411	78.022245459705	0.16755427645504	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-23 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	36.14	28.958	32.549	170.86689565293	0.40944904	0.40944904	3.66	4.06944904	T	F	4.14	130.14	120	458.23624593947	78.297404819331	0.19336878089564	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-23 04:00:09	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	40.082	30.794	35.438	167.0642808493	0.06692917	0.06692917	3.74	3.80692917	T	F	8.082	144.082	120	456.88074819866	76.328453631697	0.31281020114085	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2023-04-23 00:00:07	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	37.346	27.968	32.657	168.84534180072	0.05511814	0.14511814	3.61	3.75511814	T	F	5.346	139.346	120	457.51726361098	77.249658754124	0.22662869863915	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-04-22 20:00:08	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	36.824	27.77	32.297	169.39476167378	0.07086618	0.18086618	3.53	3.71086618	T	F	4.824	134.824	120	457.71303480289	77.534190445419	0.21185290582193	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-04-22 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	33.908	24.116	29.012	170.15211164163	0.05118113	0.06118113	3.48	3.54118113	F	F	1.908	129.908	120	457.98244889576	77.92668077442	0.14018651595795	16	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	DRY	L
2023-04-22 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	63.266	41.882	52.574	166.30798247647	0	0	3.35	3.35	F	F	31.266	163.266	120	456.60959015312	75.937819717772	0.95858319022615	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-04-22 08:00:07	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	63.5	38.624	51.062	167.15288855511	0	0	3.35	3.35	F	F	31.5	153.5	120	456.912482924	76.374241337634	0.96053941220979	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-04-22 04:00:13	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	57.092	34.088	45.59	166.32535704742	0	0	3.37	3.37	F	F	25.092	156.092	120	456.61582536057	75.946790186597	0.87320000373742	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-04-22 00:00:07	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	43.808	32.558	38.183	168.32818241134	0	0	3.07	3.07	F	F	11.808	118.808	120	457.33273780678	76.981988512219	0.44788268278319	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2023-04-21 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	45.914	33.584	39.749	167.31866003716	0	0	3.07	3.07	F	F	13.914	118.914	120	456.97183457036	76.459915035038	0.52818323377325	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2023-04-21 16:00:06	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	41.396	35.744	38.57	166.68075956768	0	0	2.85	2.85	F	F	9.396	125.396	120	456.74330820052	76.13032153832	0.35866134804199	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2023-04-21 12:00:06	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	38.552	33.566	36.059	167.6140273324	0	0	2.7	2.7	F	F	6.552	114.552	120	457.07752387006	76.612604578984	0.26289040177484	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2023-04-21 08:00:07	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	38.552	33.566	36.059	166.80425316344	0	0	2.6	2.6	F	F	6.552	109.552	120	456.78757840345	76.194110869925	0.26289040177484	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2023-04-21 04:00:16	FORECAST	2023	213	-72	50.666	49.748	50.207	164.67477195026	0	0	2.49	2.49	F	F	18.666	138.666	120	456.02225000684	75.095360024122	0.70050930966187	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L