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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, April 9, 2023

[ Saturday, April 8, 2023 | Index | Today | Monday, April 10, 2023 ]

DAY 191 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/10/2023 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.11°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.55°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.83°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.314
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -46

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.40 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.01 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.69 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.70 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 167 in
SWE DAY: 98
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 444.46 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 74.11 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -94

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-04-10 04:00:12OBSERVATION2023191-9436.1099431.5533.82997166.7516351.42.014.696.7TT4.10994-45.8900698444.46292638315 74.1149196712740.3138857054621116 21151210WETL
2023-04-10 00:00:02FORECAST2023191-9435.25828.99432.126174.05788753911.476378752.086378754.696.77637875TT3.258-46.74298447.2841346142877.8533316007140.284749275523111621151210WETL
2023-04-09 12:00:02FORECAST2023191-9434.4329.15631.793169.593239059621.720473372.330473374.697.02047337TT2.43-47.5798445.5663981674175.5650486813370.257729762429131621151210WETL
2023-04-09 08:00:02FORECAST2023191-9434.66429.22831.946167.764165903761.618111112.228111114.696.91811111TT2.664-47.33698444.8570332165374.6310691239920.265228899194591621151210WETL
2023-04-09 04:00:13FORECAST2023191-9435.31228.72432.018170.755754160711.716536362.326536364.697.01653636TT3.312-46.68898446.0155436111976.1597205167250.286557258634541621151210WETL
2023-04-09 00:00:03FORECAST2023191-9435.56429.22832.396173.026159152171.657481212.357481214.697.04748121TT3.564-45.43698446.888914539477.3234724504350.295065626684541621151210WETL
2023-04-08 20:00:02FORECAST2023191-9435.54629.04832.297173.426486088641.531496892.211496894.696.90149689TT3.546-46.45498447.0423891625977.528990685140.294454047580461621151210WETL
2023-04-08 16:00:02FORECAST2023191-9435.79829.15632.477172.72779529181.519685862.199685864.696.88968586TT3.798-46.20298446.7744282874577.1703619908450.303068781102481621151210WETL
2023-04-08 12:00:05FORECAST2023191-9435.58229.42632.504170.301987395591.515748852.195748854.696.88574885TT3.582-46.41898445.8403855889975.9275037270210.295677789609311621151210WETL
2023-04-08 08:00:04FORECAST2023191-9435.83429.91232.873174.17462250651.547244932.297244934.696.98724493TT3.834-47.16698447.3287866250177.9133225467030.304308598627321621151210WETL
2023-04-08 04:00:11FORECAST2023191-9435.6929.80432.747171.061522844361.488189782.248189784.696.93818978TT3.69-46.3198446.1334592516876.3162689314140.299362950635961621151210WETL
2023-04-08 00:00:04FORECAST2023191-9435.6929.22832.459183.042841311211.625985132.575985134.697.26598513TT3.69-50.3198450.6825309179282.4942109885420.299362950635961621151210WETL
2023-04-07 20:00:04FORECAST2023191-9435.58229.7532.666177.627587057181.720473372.680473374.697.37047337TT3.582-50.41898448.6436017220479.6914804225270.295677789609311621151210WETL
2023-04-07 16:00:07FORECAST2023191-9434.86228.20231.532179.559846990271.657481212.627481214.697.31748121TT2.862-51.13898449.3743485061380.6895892591120.271659623575461621151210WETL
2023-04-07 12:00:03FORECAST2023191-9435.7829.332.54181.495948019231.712599352.702599354.697.39259935TT3.78-50.2298450.10295958781.6918633565030.302449720172081621151210WETL
2023-04-07 08:00:04FORECAST2023191-9436.0529.82232.936180.704450138561.594489052.544489054.697.23448905TT4.05-48.9598449.8055288567281.2818607613380.311794375821321621151210WETL
2023-04-07 04:00:16FORECAST2023191-9436.69829.82233.26177.079760550111.500000812.420000814.697.11000081TT4.698-46.30298448.4357699660179.4088987676830.334712152296361621151210WETL
2023-04-07 00:00:03FORECAST2023191-9436.33829.46232.9181.894807964321.263780212.133780214.766.89378021TT4.338-48.66298450.2526175759781.8986134094120.321897086169561621151210WETL
2023-04-06 20:00:02FORECAST2023191-9435.65429.332.477176.133666352681.362205462.172205465.237.40220546TT3.654-51.34698448.0761636663178.9212975117910.298132252151861621151210WETL
2023-04-06 16:00:04FORECAST2023191-9435.8728.97632.423174.317768766961.185040011.875040015.237.10504001TT3.87-50.1398447.3835230871177.9868975276490.30555066749041621151210WETL
2023-04-06 12:00:05FORECAST2023191-9436.10427.82431.964179.697347150991.137795891.747795895.236.97779589TT4.104-49.89698449.4262120933380.7606980532890.313678188240211621151210WETL
2023-04-06 08:00:05FORECAST2023191-9436.57229.44433.008178.758703797481.236221141.776221145.116.88622114TT4.572-47.42898449.0718053882680.2754938431980.330203983093141621151210WETL
2023-04-06 04:00:14FORECAST2023191-9435.0626.67230.866179.357827241811.29921331.88921335.227.1092133TT3.06-55.9498449.2981159577180.5851338620130.278166944116431621151210WETL
2023-04-06 00:00:06FORECAST2023191-9435.58228.29231.937184.674827803961.586615032.206615035.167.36661503TT3.582-51.41898451.2915204197883.3421838229090.295677789609311621151210WETL
2023-04-05 20:00:03FORECAST2023191-9435.7827.12231.451184.611724876811.500000812.270000815.037.30000081TT3.78-53.2298451.26801991983.3093675389880.302449720172081621151210WETL
2023-04-05 16:00:05FORECAST2023191-9433.5326.94230.236186.83823406891.484252772.304252775.167.46425277TT1.53-56.4798452.0949322095884.4686187655370.2299442694329161115127.5WETL
2023-04-05 12:00:04FORECAST2023191-9434.21429.1231.667189.692511422831.543307922.253307925.127.37330792TT2.214-54.78698453.1481766384785.9588156732270.250906338927181621151210WETL
2023-04-05 08:00:04FORECAST2023191-9434.95230.1132.531189.137691074811.507874832.307874834.987.28787483TT2.952-52.04898452.9440422418985.6687903357210.274608094671651621151210WETL
2023-04-05 04:00:14FORECAST2023191-9433.69229.17431.433190.949408294521.370079482.510079485.077.58007948TT1.692-57.30898453.6095625645986.6164775684450.23481870733134161115127.5WETL
2023-04-05 00:00:04FORECAST2023191-9450.30637.25643.781191.5018231826701.064.375.43TF18.306-18.69498453.8118793846986.905802284120.819534749452241641141212WETL
2023-04-04 20:00:06FORECAST2023191-9430.18222.56826.375194.501581210930.818898082.288898085.117.39889808TT-1.818-57.81898454.9055703882388.4798527421720.14253518965329161115127.5WETL
2023-04-04 16:00:05FORECAST2023191-9431.8225.44828.634195.525290876451.015748582.605748585.17.70574858TT-0.18-53.1898455.2769047434889.0181492292970.18206227104019161115127.5WETL
2023-04-04 12:00:04FORECAST2023191-9432.52226.67229.597198.044441807231.385827523.115827525.128.23582752TT0.522-54.47898456.1865856001190.3452177051210.20091625259888161115127.5WETL
2023-04-04 08:00:05FORECAST2023191-9432.48627.8630.173197.030345834031.374016493.024016495.068.08401649TT0.486-48.51498455.8210891312689.8105868299740.19992183255507161115127.5WETL
2023-04-04 04:00:14FORECAST2023191-9441.66630.93836.302187.316531264050.692913761.472913765.116.58291376TT9.666-36.33498452.2719595683784.7180146543420.524887892575411631141210WETL
2023-04-04 00:00:04FORECAST2023191-9435.97830.03833.008193.107617625341.228347122.448347124.987.42834712TT3.978-48.02298454.3983772863587.7477880905880.309290266477781621151210WETL
2023-04-03 20:00:05FORECAST2023191-9435.97830.03833.008191.540927402141.228347122.4483471257.44834712TT3.978-48.02298453.8261901858486.9262893475750.309290266477781621151210WETL
2023-04-03 16:00:05FORECAST2023191-9436.10428.432.252192.367160890550.933071372.413071374.957.36307137TT4.104-47.89698454.1282311987987.3593585159610.313678188240211621151210WETL
2023-04-03 12:00:03FORECAST2023191-9441.66630.93836.302187.279815847380.692913761.472913765.116.58291376TT9.666-36.33498452.2583780778784.698865761860.524887892575411631141210WETL
2023-04-03 08:00:04FORECAST2023191-9439.36229.82234.592188.547624351430.704724791.574724795.156.72472479TT7.362-40.63898452.7266237874685.3605293957710.434659031713491621151210WETL
2023-04-03 04:00:11FORECAST2023191-9438.49831.87435.186190.138844365860.740157881.830157885.146.97015788TT6.498-43.50298453.3121867215986.1922553202050.4014363064861621151210WETL
2023-04-03 00:00:05FORECAST2023191-9442.20631.71236.959190.22669845190.263779672.123779675.487.60377967TT10.206-36.79498453.3444478026186.238217566990.546021801886091631151212.5WETL
2023-04-02 20:00:03FORECAST2023191-9440.129.82234.961186.34687969970.307086782.117086785.617.72708678TT8.1-45.998451.9128480379984.2125491280830.463416623367531621151210WETL
2023-04-02 16:00:04FORECAST2023191-9439.1128.433.755186.090542560580.283464722.073464725.527.59346472TT7.11-47.8998451.81776538884.0790130995630.424910263875961621151210WETL
2023-04-02 12:00:05FORECAST2023191-9442.67432.10837.391185.266449702470.27559072.56559075.037.5955907TT10.674-37.32698451.5116664085683.6499634347590.564235183797941631151212.5WETL
2023-04-02 08:00:03FORECAST2023191-9443.12431.83837.481184.865846268870.19685052.45685055.047.4968505TT11.124-32.87698451.3626356801483.4415356191590.581620966812171631151212.5WETL
2023-04-02 04:00:16FORECAST2023191-9443.2532.55837.904184.678447855970.240157612.160157615.117.27015761TT11.25-36.7598451.292868468683.3440664772520.586462067425921631151212.5WETL
2023-04-02 00:00:05FORECAST2023191-9446.00432.28839.146177.5003412689501.274.746.01TF14.004-34.99698448.5953536154279.6258283584020.687839148170181631141210WETL
2023-04-01 20:00:04FORECAST2023191-9448.86633.9841.423168.4572037006201.264.685.94TF16.866-29.13498445.1262002212674.9847149831560.779851364265111641141212WETL
2023-04-01 16:00:06FORECAST2023191-9451.51235.36643.439165.9346717023301.124.615.73TF19.512-18.48898444.1442005632273.6989221089520.849073785168261651141214WETL
2023-04-01 12:00:07FORECAST2023191-9450.30637.25643.781167.5018231826701.064.375.43TF18.306-18.69498444.7550189724774.497276547530.819534749452241641141212WETL
2023-04-01 08:00:05FORECAST2023191-9449.24435.76242.503168.1291454520100.914.565.47TF17.244-25.75698444.9988456572174.8172756474780.79072439598456164113129WETL
2023-04-01 04:00:10FORECAST2023191-9450.48635.94243.214164.9628563890400.324.244.56TF18.486-15.51498443.7641992658973.2046098740960.8241595771246164112126WETL
2023-04-01 00:00:05FORECAST2023191-9448.43434.05241.243175.0025089782900.544.755.29TF16.434-23.56698447.6450798640578.3390121079940.76703797127522164113129WETL
2023-03-31 20:00:06FORECAST2023191-9447.58834.5241.054165.8964161230900.514.925.43TF15.588-21.41298444.1292595137273.6794524487260.74078830919634164113129WETL
2023-03-31 16:00:05FORECAST2023191-9449.53235.16842.35166.0981443919800.454.845.29TF17.532-20.46898444.2080298908573.782129488890.79879270471617164112126WETL
2023-03-31 12:00:07FORECAST2023191-9446.41834.30440.361171.098475506400.524.795.31TF14.418-24.58298446.1477033545376.3351918946420.70212330260015164113129WETL
2023-03-31 08:00:06FORECAST2023191-9447.58835.67241.63169.4888136737800.44.745.14TF15.588-19.41298445.5259877707475.5116711281010.74078830919634164112126WETL
2023-03-31 04:00:15FORECAST2023191-9448.32635.8742.098167.1198392199200.054.794.84TF16.326-14.67498444.6063595926674.3025433312790.76377119875046164111123WETL
2023-03-31 00:00:03FORECAST2023191-9437.43633.99835.717170.42795291805004.554.55TF5.436-32.56498445.8890296493775.9919545517560.36157885908731162111122WETL
2023-03-30 20:00:07FORECAST2023191-9436.51834.4335.474170.58439269063004.674.67TF4.518-24.48298445.949420276876.0720110286580.3282793779149162111122WETL
2023-03-30 16:00:07FORECAST2023191-9436.10434.57435.339171.24543546748004.754.75TF4.104-30.89698446.2043386229976.4104562749720.31367818824021162111122WETL
2023-03-30 12:00:05FORECAST2023191-9436.6835.81636.248169.55998952969004.614.61TF4.68-23.3298445.5535324716875.5480523008150.33406664939298162111122WETL
2023-03-30 08:00:08FORECAST2023191-9436.6835.81636.248169.85026894863004.574.57TF4.68-26.3298445.6658176040875.6964589812640.33406664939298162111122WETL
2023-03-30 04:00:15FORECAST2023191-9430.14629.46229.804170.857432714440.043307110.143307114.464.60330711TF-1.854-42.85498446.054764761676.2117719572080.14173700769815161112123WETL