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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, April 7, 2023

[ Thursday, April 6, 2023 | Index | Today | Saturday, April 8, 2023 ]

DAY 189 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/08/2023 04:00:09 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.96°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.47°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.22°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.343
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -34

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.52 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.29 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.07 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.36 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 169 in
SWE DAY: 96
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 444.31 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 75.24 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -96

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-04-08 04:00:09OBSERVATION2023189-9636.9600827.4699432.21501169.351695416670.519999999999981.294.075.36TF4.96008-34.0399296444.31005049619 75.2446603421950.3428534544348516 2114128WETL
2023-04-08 00:00:02FORECAST2023189-9633.0824.99829.039177.043405193670.645669641.415669644.075.48566964TF1.08-37.9296447.2816064820679.1882586920810.21226058372031161114126WETL
2023-04-07 12:00:02FORECAST2023189-9632.57625.59229.084174.958522874110.62992161.39992164.075.4699216TF0.576-38.42496446.4818758947678.1158094966110.1977232788298161114126WETL
2023-04-07 08:00:01FORECAST2023189-9633.15227.03230.092175.117431341040.700787781.470787784.075.54078778TF1.152-37.84896446.5429800820678.1974596553420.21438706990953161114126WETL
2023-04-07 04:00:13FORECAST2023189-9633.72826.7830.254174.828922834060.700787781.470787784.075.54078778TF1.728-37.27296446.4320232506978.0492297435510.23183843177589161114126WETL
2023-04-07 00:00:03FORECAST2023189-9633.00826.45629.732180.68520404260.665354691.505354694.075.57535469TF1.008-38.99296448.6684280325181.0677464665270.21014645318912161115127.5WETL
2023-04-06 20:00:01FORECAST2023189-9632.32425.77229.048173.997277209390.586614491.896614494.075.96661449TT0.324-39.67696446.1117271687477.622225858540.19068549991895161115127.5WETL
2023-04-06 16:00:02FORECAST2023189-9632.68424.94428.814174.1478445020.649606651.959606654.076.02960665TT0.684-39.31696446.1697661169977.6995030512330.20078680722535161115127.5WETL
2023-04-06 12:00:04FORECAST2023189-9631.04624.06227.554177.849743715490.523622331.833622334.075.90362233TT-0.954-40.95496447.5897723056379.6037262942310.15740520986594161115127.5WETL
2023-04-06 08:00:04FORECAST2023189-9631.87424.6228.247177.301182706690.515748311.705748314.075.77574831TF-0.126-40.12696447.3801923323979.3210372200770.17850558921599161115127.5WETL
2023-04-06 04:00:13FORECAST2023189-9629.4823.4526.465178.537859916130.574803461.874803464.075.94480346TT-2.52-43.5296447.8522573442579.9585835848510.12215113025855161115127.5WETL
2023-04-06 00:00:05FORECAST2023189-9631.33424.13427.734183.033372511360.543307381.783307384.075.85330738TT-0.666-40.66696449.5558479756282.2837229871840.16455109483159161115127.5WETL
2023-04-05 20:00:02FORECAST2023189-9630.7423.82827.284182.755644161550.602362531.712362534.075.78236253TF-1.26-43.2696449.4511646401682.1397371129720.1500390058724161115127.5WETL
2023-04-05 16:00:04FORECAST2023189-9631.38824.00827.698183.602852004450.66929171.90929174.075.9792917TT-0.612-42.61296449.7702693996682.5791042085860.1659139369862161115127.5WETL
2023-04-05 12:00:03FORECAST2023189-9631.04624.9828.013183.216209177920.59055151.79055154.075.8605515TT-0.954-42.95496449.6247237669182.3785374412440.15740520986594161115127.5WETL
2023-04-05 08:00:03FORECAST2023189-9630.8324.78227.806182.352755680750.507874291.567874294.075.63787429TF-1.17-42.1796449.2991737370781.930942456040.15218134152151161115127.5WETL
2023-04-05 04:00:13FORECAST2023189-9629.62424.15226.888183.20858258410.578740471.728740474.075.79874047TF-2.376-45.37696449.6218514174182.3745820970240.12514088602139161115127.5WETL
2023-04-05 00:00:03FORECAST2023189-9639.43428.36433.899193.057787181180.842520141.292520144.075.36252014TF7.434-32.56696453.2853074817587.5102584241690.4389773188029162114128WETL
2023-04-04 20:00:05FORECAST2023189-9630.41624.96227.689185.844467607370.405512031.575512034.095.66551203TF-1.584-40.58496450.6112796810483.7436133702010.14249331145705161115127.5WETL
2023-04-04 16:00:04FORECAST2023189-9631.126.04228.571185.98619087490.480315221.640315224.095.73031522TF-0.9-38.996450.6642907054283.817334791640.15872933010245161115127.5WETL
2023-04-04 12:00:04FORECAST2023189-9630.9225.19628.058186.529495897780.523622331.703622334.095.79362233TF-1.08-40.0896450.8673350801584.1000567292760.15434383614965161115127.5WETL
2023-04-04 08:00:04FORECAST2023189-9632.0926.56429.327185.95428046070.464567181.574567184.15.67456718TF0.090000000000003-34.9196450.6523564065183.8007346734910.18428969040417161115127.5WETL
2023-04-04 04:00:13FORECAST2023189-9634.57425.46630.02187.08623634440.59055151.77055154.085.8505515TT2.574-37.42696451.0751100761684.3899446527860.258844107965931621151210WETL
2023-04-04 00:00:03FORECAST2023189-9629.73223.61226.672187.946008520860.673228711.743228714.065.80322871TF-2.268-39.26896451.3953995475184.8379636096340.12741638031351161115127.5WETL
2023-04-03 20:00:05FORECAST2023189-9629.73223.61226.672186.379318297660.673228711.743228714.085.82322871TF-2.268-39.26896450.811238609484.0218913329440.12741638031351161115127.5WETL
2023-04-03 16:00:04FORECAST2023189-9630.99223.57627.284186.552343991670.724409841.754409844.075.82440984TF-1.008-39.00896450.8758677495384.1119499779510.15608835164243161115127.5WETL
2023-04-03 12:00:03FORECAST2023189-9634.57425.46630.02187.049520927740.59055151.77055154.085.8505515TT2.574-37.42696451.0614169656784.3708219524150.258844107965931621151210WETL
2023-04-03 08:00:04FORECAST2023189-9633.74626.45630.101187.170378968380.578740471.818740474.065.87874047TT1.746-38.25496451.1064864711484.43377202790.23239622190654161115127.5WETL
2023-04-03 04:00:11FORECAST2023189-9632.88226.31229.597187.033051747330.547244391.8372443945.83724439TT0.882-39.11896451.0552743269684.3622444640990.20647657544693161115127.5WETL
2023-04-03 00:00:04FORECAST2023189-9634.89829.49832.198187.370047381041.06299272.70299273.996.6929927TT2.898-37.10296451.1809150667384.5377894334730.269601112290291621151210WETL
2023-04-02 20:00:03FORECAST2023189-9634.1628.431.28182.370599524651.043307652.683307654.126.80330765TT2.16-41.8496449.305908673781.940187934790.24542902954592161115127.5WETL
2023-04-02 16:00:03FORECAST2023189-9634.48427.30230.893182.635188136111.165354962.725354964.116.83535496TT2.484-42.51696449.4057385372782.0773016072010.255895903344081621151210WETL
2023-04-02 12:00:04FORECAST2023189-9634.57429.58832.081184.485212130511.484252772.434252774.236.66425277TT2.574-39.42696450.1018852231683.0371417757380.258844107965931621151210WETL
2023-04-02 08:00:03FORECAST2023189-9635.13230.59632.864184.013337460881.543307922.443307924.296.73330792TT3.132-36.86896449.9246338671282.7921334837540.277506789096891621151210WETL
2023-04-02 04:00:14FORECAST2023189-9634.6129.67832.144183.486668600671.275591242.295591244.246.53559124TT2.61-39.3996449.7265489994982.5188262571910.260028284948061621151210WETL
2023-04-02 00:00:04FORECAST2023189-9634.57428.25631.415176.624188934090.846457151.486457154.255.73645715TF2.574-41.42696447.1211411986978.9724089195050.25884410796593162114128WETL
2023-04-01 20:00:04FORECAST2023189-9635.3327.78831.559167.963796100910.838583131.488583134.185.66858313TF3.33-38.6796443.7676498451174.5368990547630.28428341217037162114128WETL
2023-04-01 16:00:05FORECAST2023189-9636.57228.61632.594166.16196915740.677165721.307165724.135.43716572TF4.572-34.42896443.0606248332873.6198258784080.32849148686326162114128WETL
2023-04-01 12:00:06FORECAST2023189-9639.43428.36433.899169.057787181180.842520141.292520144.075.36252014TF7.434-32.56696444.1953486558675.0946827199340.4389773188029162114128WETL
2023-04-01 08:00:05FORECAST2023189-9636.84227.87832.36169.350123055470.763779941.193779944.285.47377994TF4.842-37.15896444.3094370878275.2438578455310.33845830889188162114128WETL
2023-04-01 04:00:09FORECAST2023189-9639.07428.9434.007167.155798789040.318897810.528897814.184.70889781TF7.074-30.92696443.4509971685574.1254056555050.42461319279974162113126WETL
2023-04-01 00:00:04FORECAST2023189-9636.53626.13231.334176.318069319530.440945120.480945124.865.34094512TF4.536-34.46496447.0038584383678.814857298230.32717155050779162112124WETL
2023-03-31 20:00:05FORECAST2023189-9636.53627.48232.009167.660432923090.417323060.477323065.015.48732306TF4.536-31.46496443.6488385543674.3823563378480.32717155050779162112124WETL
2023-03-31 16:00:04FORECAST2023189-9636.75228.32832.54167.592387457710.358267910.398267914.955.34826791TF4.752-33.24896443.6221761764874.3476996346020.33512301847152162112124WETL
2023-03-31 12:00:06FORECAST2023189-9636.98628.25632.621171.94715773140.43307110.55307114.825.3730711TF4.986-33.01496445.319258045476.5713807039640.34382111971655162113126WETL
2023-03-31 08:00:05FORECAST2023189-9638.17428.32833.251170.70418844220.311023790.431023794.775.20102379TF6.174-29.82696444.8367777487775.935501134850.3891775270874162112124WETL
2023-03-31 04:00:14FORECAST2023189-9638.1227.66232.891168.818095951410.011811030.041811034.914.95181103TF6.12-25.8896444.1017423557274.9724105531980.38707729149181162111122WETL
2023-03-31 00:00:03FORECAST2023189-9639.9230.12835.024171.12186971805004.74.7TF7.92-31.0896444.9990780110976.1490742520640.45849358986168162111122WETL
2023-03-30 20:00:07FORECAST2023189-9640.92831.38836.158171.37769349063004.824.82TF8.928-23.07296445.0983995927676.2799370985790.49923833214779163111122.5WETL
2023-03-30 16:00:06FORECAST2023189-9639.1124.94432.027171.99012666748004.94.9TF7.11-29.8996445.3359099663376.5933795646850.42604543566855162111122WETL
2023-03-30 12:00:05FORECAST2023189-9640.31626.49233.404170.47796312969004.764.76TF8.316-23.68496444.7488004655575.8198696077390.47447226214172162111122WETL
2023-03-30 08:00:08FORECAST2023189-9638.33625.80832.072170.53601854863004.724.72TF6.336-24.66496444.7713825934375.8495407518530.39549745170852162111122WETL
2023-03-30 04:00:15FORECAST2023189-9638.9327.89633.413169.9603817059004.614.61TF6.93-34.0796444.5473267917975.5554333478710.41889435013612162111122WETL
2023-03-30 00:00:07FORECAST2023189-9639.2924.24231.766176.0060271401300.094.894.98TF7.29-36.7196446.8842126891578.6543148670620.43322092075191162111122WETL
2023-03-29 20:00:06FORECAST2023189-9641.86426.5134.187175.2439878882500.094.844.93TF9.864-26.13696446.5916265263278.2624975899740.53708894252196163111122.5WETL
2023-03-29 16:00:06FORECAST2023189-9645.10423.19834.151178.1362500543400.115.185.29TF13.104-28.89696447.6991171901379.7514418888880.66348450156047163112125WETL
2023-03-29 12:00:03FORECAST2023189-9651.51224.31437.913182.397808713560.059055150.079055155.895.96905515TF19.512-23.48896449.3161778555981.9542862604130.85829214748301165111123.5WETL
2023-03-29 08:00:05FORECAST2023189-9642.36823.30632.837181.575922297310.047244120.067244125.725.78724412TF10.368-35.63296449.0056715394481.5286189264980.5573534836876163111122.5WETL
2023-03-29 04:00:22FORECAST2023189-9634.66420.98427.824184.167095654960.169291430.219291435.976.18929143TF2.664-41.33696449.982413743282.8719542348940.26180976651821162112124WETL
2023-03-29 00:00:05FORECAST2023189-9620.4817.02418.752183.28299492149005.535.53TF-11.52-65.5296449.6498744270582.4131756510630.018716394510948161111121.5WETL
2023-03-28 20:00:04FORECAST2023189-9620.76817.02418.896184.4467469098005.585.58TF-11.232-66.23296450.0874443964783.0171649438740.02010372254577161111121.5WETL
2023-03-28 16:00:06FORECAST2023189-9625.75420.37223.063185.2661818066900.135.565.69TF-6.246-56.24696450.3947762769783.4429205065140.061379003197883161112123WETL
2023-03-28 12:00:07FORECAST2023189-9622.13617.70819.922184.463593000920.011811030.361811035.275.63181103TF-9.864-54.86496450.0937690231683.0259138213410.027937286404473161112123WETL
2023-03-28 08:00:07FORECAST2023189-9622.44218.2320.336184.042844504910.011811030.351811035.185.53181103TF-9.558-51.55896449.9357238932682.807450469690.02999957569881161112123WETL
2023-03-28 04:00:18FORECAST2023189-9617.00614.75615.881184.2806026105900.834.735.56TF-14.994-51.99496450.0250533704982.9308880249750.0074273037994732161113124.5WETL