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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, April 29, 2023

[ Friday, April 28, 2023 | Index | Today | Sunday, April 30, 2023 ]

DAY 211 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/30/2023 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 65.98°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 51.50°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 58.74°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.989
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 34
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 146

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.05 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.05 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 152 in
SWE DAY: 118
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 450.14 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 68.27 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -74

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-04-30 04:00:11OBSERVATION2023211-7465.9800451.4999458.73999151.66472291667004.054.05TF33.98004145.98004118450.1367551675 68.2698662470870.9888567450898216 5111123.5WETL
2023-04-30 00:00:02FORECAST2023211-7359.50442.96251.233151.7867872004.054.05TF27.504139.504119450.7428221649568.4168048298790.94784345124239165111123.5WETL
2023-04-29 12:00:02FORECAST2023211-7358.56843.39450.981153.7409328004.054.05TF26.568138.568119451.4714314730669.409639007220.9368579220905165111123.5WETL
2023-04-29 08:00:02FORECAST2023211-7358.38842.94450.666153.757464004.054.05TF26.388138.388119451.4775797694669.418047718210.93455288209018165111123.5WETL
2023-04-29 04:00:10FORECAST2023211-7358.5544.74451.647153.24305253333004.054.05TF26.55138.55119451.2861384428569.1564654209630.93663029258447165111123.5WETL
2023-04-29 00:00:04FORECAST2023211-7459.59444.45652.025152.1935536004.054.05TF27.594130.594118450.3351019388768.5380994748950.94881459057292165111123.5WETL
2023-04-28 20:00:01FORECAST2023211-7459.86444.65452.259156.4326456004.054.05TF27.864128.864118451.9154532119370.6943299334650.95164216751439165111123.5WETL
2023-04-28 16:00:01FORECAST2023211-7459.46843.3451.404156.5397048004.054.05TF27.468128.468118451.9551454464570.7489250510290.94745093484475165111123.5WETL
2023-04-28 12:00:03FORECAST2023211-7458.7343.05250.891154.617756004.054.05TF26.73127.73118451.240937285369.769861138390.93887812922895165111123.5WETL
2023-04-28 08:00:04FORECAST2023211-7458.92844.3351.629154.4162328004.054.05TF26.928129.928118451.1658478517569.6673305932860.94127848839603165111123.5WETL
2023-04-28 04:00:11FORECAST2023211-7459.37844.18651.782154.76333591667004.054.05TF27.378129.378118451.2951578199269.843944107250.94645941786136165111123.5WETL
2023-04-28 00:00:03FORECAST2023211-7460.24244.0652.151155.6446392004.054.05TF28.242124.242118451.6229672357270.2926937898370.95538999814041165111123.5WETL
2023-04-27 20:00:05FORECAST2023211-7459.61243.75451.683159.359456004.054.05TF27.612121.612118452.9966926999672.1893065184640.94900708666745165111123.5WETL
2023-04-27 16:00:04FORECAST2023211-7458.08242.5350.306159.5171912004.054.05TF26.082119.082118453.0547362061772.2700189794650.93048574241666165111123.5WETL
2023-04-27 12:00:04FORECAST2023211-7459.05443.2551.152157.5394496004.054.05TF27.054122.054118452.3252806237971.2590757496370.94276717687604165111123.5WETL
2023-04-27 08:00:02FORECAST2023211-7459.5443.12451.332157.549388004.054.05TF27.54122.54118452.3289553980871.2641500976460.94823364300585165111123.5WETL
2023-04-27 04:00:10FORECAST2023211-7459.50444.40251.953157.34630261667004.054.05TF27.504121.504118452.2538451148771.1604703729950.94784345124239165111123.5WETL
2023-04-27 00:00:04FORECAST2023211-7459.34243.53851.44159.1138304004.054.05TF27.342120.342118452.9062609102272.0636499855670.94605869843176165111123.5WETL
2023-04-26 20:00:03FORECAST2023211-7459.43242.76451.098161.5182936004.054.05TF27.432118.432118453.7890878645673.2952391261840.94705608531842165111123.5WETL
2023-04-26 16:00:03FORECAST2023211-7459.84643.05251.449161.5318728004.054.05TF27.846117.846118453.7940583325273.3022041079640.95145762086781165111123.5WETL
2023-04-26 12:00:06FORECAST2023211-7459.943.14251.521160.6061256004.054.05TF27.9116.9118453.4548092271372.8276200446570.9520095825577165111123.5WETL
2023-04-26 08:00:05FORECAST2023211-7458.5541.57650.063160.8144384004.054.05TF26.55114.55118453.5312170577372.9343679680070.93663029258447165111123.5WETL
2023-04-26 04:00:13FORECAST2023211-7457.30840.47848.893160.94074656471004.054.05TF25.308109.308118453.5775264170672.9991057265340.91933421651841165111123.5WETL
2023-04-26 00:00:03FORECAST2023211-7457.50642.02649.766160.89587440044TF25.506116.506118453.5610762826472.97610596230.92230750264261165111123.5DRYL
2023-04-25 20:00:03FORECAST2023211-7459.39641.48650.441162.51451520044TF27.396117.396118454.153285551673.8065010279050.94665889418123165111123.5DRYL
2023-04-25 16:00:03FORECAST2023211-7460.3542.6251.485162.15437120044TF28.35122.35118454.021730817473.6216082718310.95641686320725165111123.5DRYL
2023-04-25 12:00:02FORECAST2023211-7459.75643.05251.404161.40633440044TF27.756121.756118453.7481002991173.2378176102420.95052645341229165111123.5DRYL
2023-04-25 08:00:02FORECAST2023211-7459.4544.45651.953161.51801840044TF27.45119.45118453.7889871298473.2950979729550.9472538022531165111123.5DRYL
2023-04-25 04:00:15FORECAST2023211-7457.3842.65650.018161.473218866670044TF25.38116.38118453.7725876872573.2721203673170.92042516684425165111123.5DRYL
2023-04-25 00:00:04FORECAST2023211-7457.79441.4549.622164.34229277944003.93.9TF25.794118.794118454.8190908721574.7460121937910.92648325380176165111123.5DRYL
2023-04-24 20:00:04FORECAST2023211-7457.54243.26850.405160.389016003.973.97TF25.542119.542118453.3751317482672.7163912599740.92283907616978165111123.5DRYL
2023-04-24 16:00:03FORECAST2023211-7456.37241.68449.028160.7111776003.973.97TF24.372117.372118453.4933466960972.8814497812930.9041114190731165111123.5DRYL
2023-04-24 12:00:04FORECAST2023211-7459.12643.39451.26162.23031596283003.973.97TF27.126121.126118454.0494822153173.6605909625510.94360446915196165111123.5DRYL
2023-04-24 08:00:05FORECAST2023211-7460.40444.54652.475161.99691403149003.963.96TF28.404121.404118453.964176460273.5407956674020.95692311789789165111123.5DRYL
2023-04-24 04:00:14FORECAST2023211-7461.10644.31252.709162.44095441083003.963.96TF29.106123.106118454.1264247730273.7687298633090.96308319025153165111123.5DRYL
2023-04-24 00:00:04FORECAST2023211-7459.61245.84252.727168.28283816536004.064.06TF27.612110.612118456.2440425294976.7780423729010.94900708666745165111123.5WETL
2023-04-23 20:00:04FORECAST2023211-7460.11645.62652.871167.98634709346003.983.98TF28.116114.116118456.1373230442476.6248426711910.95416753404189165111123.5DRYL
2023-04-23 16:00:06FORECAST2023211-7456.62443.12449.874168.84205403697003.983.98TF24.624104.624118456.4451089971477.0671297582060.90840297654561165111123.5DRYL
2023-04-23 12:00:03FORECAST2023211-7456.62441.84649.235169.18261110015003.963.96TF24.624102.624118456.5674166846577.2432676979570.90840297654561165111123.5DRYL
2023-04-23 08:00:05FORECAST2023211-7457.72241.97249.847169.77284409814003.963.96TF25.722106.722118456.7791425882177.548694161910.92545570802912165111123.5DRYL
2023-04-23 04:00:09FORECAST2023211-7459.88244.70852.295168.4656952586004.044.04TF27.882114.882118456.3098203562476.8725511396420.95182615438594165111123.5WETL
2023-04-23 00:00:06FORECAST2023211-7458.71241.3650.036169.78463785055003.913.91TF26.712113.712118456.7833699597977.5547990447750.93865617926525165111123.5DRYL
2023-04-22 20:00:07FORECAST2023211-7459.9942.38651.188170.12435264551003.833.83TF27.99110.99118456.9050835342977.7306815567140.95291838058557165111123.5DRYL
2023-04-22 16:00:04FORECAST2023211-7460.63841.16250.9170.91902848647003.783.78TF28.638107.638118457.1893914480178.1423666206150.95906241940456165111123.5DRYL
2023-04-22 12:00:04FORECAST2023211-7455.18441.0948.137170.90119607647003.653.65FF23.184103.184118457.1830179121478.1331245870340.8818883206954165111123.5DRYL
2023-04-22 08:00:07FORECAST2023211-7452.62839.50646.067171.10591175511003.653.65FF20.62895.628118457.2561686022378.2392336343340.82241693988368164111123DRYL
2023-04-22 04:00:13FORECAST2023211-7458.02842.42250.225169.82938104742003.673.67FF26.028106.028118456.7994066317877.5779604911020.92974829678211165111123.5DRYL
2023-04-22 00:00:07FORECAST2023211-7453.18638.96646.076169.95266801134003.373.37FF21.18685.186118456.8435852081477.6417861699920.83678497853184164111123DRYL
2023-04-21 20:00:05FORECAST2023211-7453.09637.4945.293169.08720323716003.373.37FF21.09681.096118456.5331625653677.1939156431950.83451997075608164111123DRYL
2023-04-21 16:00:06FORECAST2023211-7449.5535.16842.359168.43542836768003.153.15FF17.5592.55118456.2989347817376.8569065436790.7296884032528164111123DRYL
2023-04-21 12:00:06FORECAST2023211-7449.7335.88842.809169.39221373240033FF17.7382.73118456.6426408095377.3517078113380.73570398310946164111123DRYL
2023-04-21 08:00:06FORECAST2023211-7448.70434.71841.711168.43838196344002.92.9FF16.70478.704118456.299997087876.8584331993930.70053170856674164111123DRYL
2023-04-21 04:00:15FORECAST2023211-7448.97436.30242.638167.30638155026002.792.79FF16.97480.974118455.8922714007576.2736863047880.70999075125404164111123DRYL
2023-04-21 00:00:05FORECAST2023211-7452.12440.06446.094169.81678859724002.762.76FF20.12497.124118456.7948934820377.5714418587350.8087760893393164111123DRYL
2023-04-20 20:00:05FORECAST2023211-7452.2540.29846.274165.18234737866002.692.69FF20.25100.25118455.1240626618575.1784610189980.81224499248214164111123DRYL
2023-04-20 16:00:06FORECAST2023211-7454.57240.40647.489163.96581298776002.682.68FF22.572107.572118454.6822030725274.5523370778510.86911969065257165111123.5DRYL
2023-04-20 12:00:05FORECAST2023211-7451.13438.37244.753167.53725251787002.772.77FF19.13498.134118455.975522061576.3928861815860.7801790186203164111123DRYL
2023-04-20 08:00:05FORECAST2023211-7454.60840.65847.633166.79144888795002.832.83FF22.608114.608118455.7064138619176.0079330355610.86989614005472165111123.5DRYL
2023-04-20 04:00:12FORECAST2023211-7469.2641.77455.517167.30944579001002.882.88FF37.26123.26118455.8933766665976.2752681894260.99561496602167165111117DRYL
2023-04-20 00:00:06FORECAST2023211-7440.24425.55632.9172.79241791579003.63.6FF8.24483.244118457.8573596020579.1142802261790.3694154942642162111122DRYL
2023-04-19 20:00:07FORECAST2023211-7440.35225.55632.954171.15871984917003.553.55FF8.35272.352118457.2750322540978.2666091395960.3735628709364162111122DRYL
2023-04-19 16:00:08FORECAST2023211-7448.4744.4246.445166.9407907248003.563.56FF16.47102.47118455.760341679576.084991820980.69222263010578163111122.5DRYL
2023-04-19 12:00:06FORECAST2023211-7437.70633.38635.546173.14444624421003.753.75TF5.70669.706118457.9825230367379.2971303407180.2771894091211162111122DRYL
2023-04-19 08:00:07FORECAST2023211-7442.51238.71440.613173.50265316341003.73.7FF10.51274.512118458.1097684383679.483260264130.45896994892512162111122DRYL
2023-04-19 04:00:11FORECAST2023211-7446.36444.5145.437173.477836514540.074803190.204803193.773.97480319TF14.36492.364118458.1009565829179.4703628532430.61341771584438163112125DRYL