Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, April 26, 2023

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DAY 208 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/27/2023 04:00:09 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 54.22°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 38.68°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 46.45°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.854 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 22 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 47 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.52 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.37 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.89 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 164 in SWE DAY: 115 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 453.02 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 74.26 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -77 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 5 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 10.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-04-27 04:00:09	OBSERVATION	2023	208	-77	54.21992	38.67998	46.44995	163.91863541667	0	0.52	6.37	6.89	T	T	22.21992	47.21992	115	453.02281868837	74.258882252009	0.85375055092192	16	5	1	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2023-04-27 00:00:01	FORECAST	2023	208	-76	50.864	34.7	42.782	165.6895088	0	0.52	6.37	6.89	T	T	18.864	43.864	116	454.22003805978	75.259494993243	0.7652152501379	16	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2023-04-26 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	208	-76	48.758	32.882	40.82	166.9211424	0	0.52	6.37	6.89	T	T	16.758	41.758	116	454.66881684006	75.8938383206	0.6972461990323	16	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2023-04-26 08:00:02	FORECAST	2023	208	-76	49.172	33.188	41.18	166.8963456	0	0.52	6.37	6.89	T	T	17.172	42.172	116	454.65979530145	75.881058327057	0.7112786948624	16	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2023-04-26 04:00:11	FORECAST	2023	208	-76	48.614	34.718	41.666	166.47997776471	0	0.52	6.37	6.89	T	T	16.614	41.614	116	454.50822800929	75.666519692863	0.69229477731311	16	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2023-04-26 00:00:02	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	50.324	35.978	43.151	167.00248	0	0.47	6.37	6.84	T	T	18.324	46.324	115	454.15320370104	75.84471131802	0.74862863655272	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-04-25 20:00:01	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	50.09	36.176	43.133	168.6774056	0	0.47	6.37	6.84	T	T	18.09	45.09	115	454.76344827568	76.708318616852	0.74125362758587	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-04-25 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	50.63	35.294	42.962	168.699644	0	0.47	6.37	6.84	T	T	18.63	45.63	115	454.77153319219	76.719795750856	0.75810285213776	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-04-25 12:00:02	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	51.476	35.672	43.574	167.9582984	0	0.47	6.37	6.84	T	T	19.476	46.476	115	454.5017658294	76.337343208501	0.78325970009896	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-04-25 08:00:02	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	50.342	35.708	43.025	168.0833648	0	0.47	6.37	6.84	T	T	18.342	45.342	115	454.54731171909	76.401841614539	0.74919131329044	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-04-25 04:00:13	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	50.018	36.41	43.214	167.94242846667	0	0.47	6.37	6.84	T	T	18.018	44.018	115	454.49598538304	76.329159513578	0.73896210206646	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-04-25 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	51.512	34.376	42.944	170.54473997944	0	0.37	6.37	6.74	T	T	19.512	45.512	115	455.44074165692	77.673022861923	0.78429560402115	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-04-24 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	51.764	36.446	44.105	166.94344	0	0.44	6.37	6.81	T	T	19.764	46.764	115	454.13164558507	75.814299126833	0.79146628726699	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-04-24 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	51.62	35.024	43.322	167.0001184	0	0.44	6.37	6.81	T	T	19.62	46.62	115	454.15234143848	75.843494791863	0.78738607259804	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-04-24 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	50.612	35.06	42.836	168.78139436283	0	0.44	6.37	6.81	T	T	18.612	45.612	115	454.80125014917	76.761989158138	0.7575509520561	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-04-24 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	50.864	35.06	42.962	168.71615803149	0	0.43	6.37	6.8	T	T	18.864	44.864	115	454.77753668142	76.728318747916	0.7652152501379	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-04-24 04:00:12	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	50.972	34.052	42.512	169.29943441083	0	0.43	6.37	6.8	T	T	18.972	43.972	115	454.98941876728	77.029451260214	0.76845855383193	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-04-24 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	50.162	35.078	42.62	174.91942616536	0	0.54	6.36	6.9	T	T	18.162	38.162	115	457.01494437904	79.940791819778	0.74353471152199	16	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2023-04-23 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	50.144	33.944	42.044	174.51026709346	0	0.56	6.26	6.82	T	T	18.144	39.144	115	456.86845149738	79.728235497384	0.74296542303824	16	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2023-04-23 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	50.144	32.684	41.414	174.69193403697	0	0.56	6.26	6.82	T	T	18.144	38.144	115	456.93351324208	79.822599154566	0.74296542303824	16	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2023-04-23 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	50.774	31.514	41.144	175.02727590015	0	0.54	6.26	6.8	T	T	18.774	37.774	115	457.05353290971	79.996834805724	0.76249345628608	16	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2023-04-23 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	50.72	30.128	40.424	175.96289289814	0	0.53	6.27	6.8	T	T	18.72	35.72	115	457.38785250833	80.483289703834	0.76085211687719	16	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2023-04-23 04:00:07	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	51.8	31.262	41.531	175.4454040586	0	0.54	6.34	6.88	T	T	19.8	38.8	115	457.20303886432	80.214171890371	0.79247909468918	16	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2023-04-23 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	51.836	31.946	41.891	176.30944345055	0	0.44	6.31	6.75	T	T	19.836	38.836	115	457.51148227684	80.663594812463	0.79348899494733	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-04-22 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	51.476	32.972	42.224	176.72935424551	0	0.45	6.22	6.67	T	T	19.476	36.476	115	457.66113711508	80.882157225614	0.78325970009896	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-04-22 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	50.792	32.846	41.819	177.33205168647	0	0.46	6.16	6.62	T	T	18.792	32.792	115	457.87565774718	81.196029805601	0.76303919444655	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-04-22 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	49.622	32.558	41.09	176.82025127647	0	0.45	6.04	6.49	T	F	17.622	31.622	115	457.69351151017	80.929481712837	0.72617512012245	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-04-22 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	49.388	32.45	40.919	176.52056855511	0	0.44	6.05	6.49	T	F	17.388	31.388	115	457.58674652735	80.773472660291	0.71847645846548	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-04-22 04:00:12	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	50.612	32.54	41.576	175.83660264742	0	0.38	6.13	6.51	T	F	18.612	33.612	115	457.34277217993	80.41759930547	0.7575509520561	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-04-22 00:00:06	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	48.956	30.704	39.83	174.72605201134	0	0.43	5.78	6.21	T	F	16.956	26.956	115	456.94572881987	79.840323180142	0.70399552049424	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-04-21 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	48.002	30.434	39.218	173.71111763717	0	0.39	5.82	6.21	T	F	16.002	26.002	115	456.58188933348	79.313350289008	0.67086724403067	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-04-21 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	50.288	31.694	40.991	172.95621956768	0	0.31	5.68	5.99	T	F	18.288	37.288	115	456.3106602306	78.921766741919	0.74750128727371	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-04-21 12:00:06	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	48.38	30.02	39.2	173.3213257324	0	0.19	5.65	5.84	T	F	16.38	34.38	115	456.44190502263	79.111116098346	0.68417388249353	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-04-21 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	48.452	29.48	38.966	171.96562836344	0	0.16	5.58	5.74	T	F	16.452	31.452	115	455.95395849721	78.408408977773	0.68668233854194	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-04-21 04:00:14	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	48.236	31.73	39.983	171.60862635026	0	0.09	5.54	5.63	T	F	16.236	29.236	115	455.82518556399	78.223533950489	0.67913155512067	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2023-04-21 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	50.756	35.294	43.025	175.79596619724	0	0.14	5.46	5.6	T	F	18.756	29.756	115	457.32826359434	80.396463967872	0.76194703008057	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-04-20 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	50.288	34.214	42.251	171.07572017866	0	0.16	5.37	5.53	T	F	18.288	34.288	115	455.63274548627	77.947700071045	0.74750128727371	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-04-20 16:00:06	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	51.332	35.978	43.655	170.18233138776	0	0.13	5.39	5.52	T	F	19.332	37.332	115	455.30954499541	77.485639870419	0.77908747826258	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-04-20 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	50.108	32.324	41.216	173.37237251787	0	0.18	5.43	5.61	T	F	18.108	32.108	115	456.46024512543	79.137595657486	0.74182488004764	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-04-20 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	52.034	30.398	41.216	173.52063128795	0	0.17	5.5	5.67	T	F	20.034	42.034	115	456.51349809548	79.214510381	0.7989912980153	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-04-20 04:00:11	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	51.386	30.128	40.757	174.40871059001	0	0.23	5.49	5.72	T	F	19.386	36.386	115	456.83206722067	79.675491800127	0.78065741393231	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-04-20 00:00:06	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	51.044	30.362	40.703	176.22638111579	0	0.22	6.22	6.44	T	F	19.044	37.044	115	457.48186021708	80.620372652178	0.7706068294256	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-04-19 20:00:07	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	51.332	32.864	42.098	174.56946064917	0	0.2	6.19	6.39	T	F	19.332	28.332	115	456.88965422682	79.758980514561	0.77908747826258	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-04-19 16:00:08	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	51.638	32.864	42.251	171.8136571248	0	0.17	6.23	6.4	T	F	19.638	37.638	115	455.89915576277	78.329701231711	0.78789862977778	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-04-19 12:00:06	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	45.086	28.688	36.887	175.59244144421	0	0.2	6.39	6.59	T	F	13.086	27.086	115	457.25557584494	80.290622926589	0.56204980841365	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-04-19 08:00:07	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	44.114	28.922	36.518	176.33076756341	0	0.21	6.33	6.54	T	F	12.114	22.114	115	457.51908596883	80.674691603792	0.52423637900175	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-04-19 04:00:10	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	46.958	29.174	38.066	176.62880131454	0	0.25	6.36	6.61	T	T	14.958	28.958	115	457.62531491181	80.82981082406	0.63301995174948	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-04-19 00:00:07	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	48.578	31.91	40.244	182.22796980796	0	0.13	7.47	7.6	T	T	16.578	30.578	115	459.60616665533	83.753098660819	0.69105138620101	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-04-18 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	50.9	33.764	42.332	177.6685566044	0	0.17	8.07	8.24	T	T	18.9	34.9	115	457.99528856901	81.371361851672	0.76629912841238	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-04-18 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	50.702	34.124	42.413	177.59551891582	0	0.22	7.78	8	T	T	18.702	37.702	115	457.96933163684	81.333301099577	0.76030363156399	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-04-18 12:00:09	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	35.006	22.658	28.832	180.13009878651	0.22047256	0.57047256	6.76	7.33047256	T	T	3.006	13.006	115	458.8672883444	82.655809979374	0.20241720011046	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-04-18 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	35.186	25.664	30.425	179.4061496127	0.24409462	0.58409462	6.93	7.51409462	T	T	3.186	24.186	115	458.61139549816	82.277704634833	0.20743632721798	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-04-18 04:00:14	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	35.006	22.658	28.832	179.84230773528	0.19291349	0.54291349	6.7	7.24291349	T	T	3.006	13.006	115	458.76561976919	82.505467768898	0.20241720011046	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-04-18 00:00:08	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	33.098	23.972	28.535	177.37946004802	0.33070884	0.71070884	5.94	6.65070884	T	T	1.098	10.098	115	457.89251807662	81.22072761646	0.15378047404705	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-04-17 20:00:07	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	32.198	22.982	27.59	177.24286568086	0.33858286	0.70858286	6.21	6.91858286	T	T	0.198	9.198	115	457.8439340962	81.149570913809	0.13376904062739	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-04-17 16:00:06	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	29.768	22.802	26.285	179.55310258031	0.62204758	1.09204758	5.97	7.06204758	T	T	-2.232	4.768	115	458.6633767357	82.354432332856	0.088900176638618	16	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-04-17 12:00:08	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	31.19	22.55	26.87	182.82067666435	0.44881914	1.47881914	6.15	7.62881914	T	T	-0.81	9.19	115	459.81420798167	84.063544643089	0.1135650833654	16	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-04-17 08:00:07	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	32.108	22.64	27.374	183.02462147527	0.393701	1.453701	6.29	7.743701	T	T	0.108	14.108	115	459.88572063467	84.170409941042	0.13187087582764	16	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-04-17 04:00:18	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	34.628	23.756	29.192	177.72588714667	0.14173236	0.99173236	6.07	7.06173236	T	T	2.628	24.628	115	458.01565995069	81.401239491805	0.19211578440261	16	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-04-17 00:00:09	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	32.63	22.082	27.356	180.77639574623	0	0.25	6.58	6.83	T	T	0.63	3.63	115	459.09533641585	82.99360022116	0.14314027308574	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-16 20:00:07	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	35.492	22.226	28.859	176.60464386448	0	0.27	6.69	6.96	T	T	3.492	11.492	115	457.61670740383	80.817235637488	0.21613535789596	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-16 16:00:07	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	40.298	33.368	36.833	174.63059624244	0	0.3	6.33	6.63	T	T	8.298	23.298	115	456.91154923471	79.790736272916	0.37688834389544	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-04-16 12:00:07	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	29.498	25.916	27.707	178.11617989262	0	0.08	6.97	7.05	T	T	-2.502	13.498	115	458.15426467859	81.604687426064	0.084704121442309	16	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2023-04-16 08:00:09	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	29.498	25.916	27.707	178.41227205384	0	0.07	6.96	7.03	T	T	-2.502	10.498	115	458.25932431398	81.759087240712	0.084704121442309	16	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2023-04-16 04:00:10	FORECAST	2023	208	-77	27.932	26.384	27.158	179.95828424848	0	0.28	7.04	7.32	T	T	-4.068	5.932	115	458.80659998644	82.566048535438	0.063236549656047	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L