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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, April 25, 2023

[ Monday, April 24, 2023 | Index | Today | Wednesday, April 26, 2023 ]

DAY 207 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/26/2023 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.05°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.00°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.53°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.512
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 11
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 24

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.05 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.22 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.76 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.98 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 168 in
SWE DAY: 114
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 453.83 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 76.06 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -78

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-04-26 04:00:11OBSERVATION2023207-7843.0500226.0000634.52504167.602721764710.0500000000000681.22000000000015.766.9800000000001TT11.0500224.05002114453.82575186667 76.0624312197680.5123354753910916 31141210WETL
2023-04-26 00:00:02FORECAST2023207-7745.53625.86235.699168.301950401.175.766.93TT13.53626.536115454.6268801053576.5145906259970.610440465657171631141210WETL
2023-04-25 12:00:01FORECAST2023207-7745.30225.0735.186169.351740801.175.766.93TT13.30226.302115455.0084043527177.0564653557620.601402236093931631141210WETL
2023-04-25 08:00:02FORECAST2023207-7744.56424.7134.637169.405467201.175.766.93TT12.56425.564115455.0279027318677.0842144513270.572560984021251631141210WETL
2023-04-25 04:00:12FORECAST2023207-7744.07824.09834.088169.2430796666701.175.766.93TT12.07825.078115454.9689609324677.0003481009520.553343604098181631141210WETL
2023-04-25 00:00:03FORECAST2023207-7844.1523.7233.935171.8641855794401.075.766.83TT12.1525.15114455.3768189318278.2629661174750.556199668131791631141210WETL
2023-04-24 20:00:01FORECAST2023207-7844.45625.23234.844168.408222401.145.766.9TT12.45626.456114454.1202223467776.4775794013120.568303651369341631141210WETL
2023-04-24 16:00:02FORECAST2023207-7844.45624.7134.583168.391592801.145.766.9TT12.45626.456114454.1141490780276.4690048762640.568303651369341631141210WETL
2023-04-24 12:00:03FORECAST2023207-7843.80824.42234.115170.0851943628301.145.766.9TT11.80825.808114454.7313510947477.3430702338230.542609897934981631141210WETL
2023-04-24 08:00:03FORECAST2023207-7844.11424.45834.286170.0474116314901.135.766.89TT12.11425.114114454.7176108068477.323552740960.554771991454481631141210WETL
2023-04-24 04:00:12FORECAST2023207-7843.21423.82833.521170.6275392108301.135.766.89TT11.21424.214114454.9284381333577.6233199157210.518897053572251631141210WETL
2023-04-24 00:00:03FORECAST2023207-7842.94423.86433.404176.1931157653601.235.766.99TT10.94418.944114456.9353460186580.508862318350.50809124808781631141210WETL
2023-04-23 20:00:03FORECAST2023207-7842.94424.47633.71175.7346582934601.155.766.91TT10.94419.944114456.7710996070380.2705131077690.50809124808781631141210WETL
2023-04-23 16:00:04FORECAST2023207-7842.63823.41433.026175.8347516369701.155.766.91TT10.63818.638114456.8069752476880.3225410387120.49583791252519162114128WETL
2023-04-23 12:00:02FORECAST2023207-7841.68423.57632.63176.1862311001501.135.766.89TT9.68417.684114456.9328809411980.5052821587610.45771378993227162114128WETL
2023-04-23 08:00:04FORECAST2023207-7841.01822.78431.901177.1215528981401.135.766.89TT9.01816.018114457.2673814774180.9919086969450.43130690024643162114128WETL
2023-04-23 04:00:07FORECAST2023207-7841.924.02632.963176.752352858601.215.766.97TT9.917.9114457.1354388377580.7997643896210.4663242470296162114128WETL
2023-04-23 00:00:04FORECAST2023207-7842.02623.19832.612177.6880274505501.145.76.84TT10.02618.026114457.469584564181.2868680998150.47135456437104162114128WETL
2023-04-22 20:00:04FORECAST2023207-7842.15223.52232.837178.1379502455101.125.646.76TT10.15216.152114457.6299773242381.5212661314380.47638945588996162114128WETL
2023-04-22 16:00:03FORECAST2023207-7841.41424.2632.837178.6639940864701.075.646.71TT9.41413.414114457.8172741489381.7954627612290.4469790314595162114128WETL
2023-04-22 12:00:03FORECAST2023207-7841.03623.84632.441178.0024288764700.945.646.58TT9.03613.036114457.5816846657781.4506512798930.43201712069723162113126WETL
2023-04-22 08:00:06FORECAST2023207-7841.3623.70232.531177.6893637551100.925.666.58TT9.3613.36114457.4700612141181.2875641141480.44483647732187162113126WETL
2023-04-22 04:00:11FORECAST2023207-7842.2624.36833.314177.0150410474200.925.686.6TT10.2614.26114457.2293295675680.9364685414840.48070811007947162113126WETL
2023-04-22 00:00:05FORECAST2023207-7840.122.51431.307175.7649592113401.045.266.3TT8.19.1114456.7819610805180.2862627577950.39542904479232162114128WETL
2023-04-21 20:00:03FORECAST2023207-7839.54224.5332.036174.70633523717015.36.3TT7.5428.542114456.4019974809279.7363203748130.37402612760657162114128WETL
2023-04-21 16:00:05FORECAST2023207-7841.55824.67433.116174.0921491676800.85.286.08TF9.55817.558114456.1810837102879.4175452727660.45269991153352162113126WETL
2023-04-21 12:00:05FORECAST2023207-7843.6125.21434.412174.352557732400.655.285.93TF11.6116.61114456.2747909578579.5526768323190.53471825999755163113127.5WETL
2023-04-21 08:00:05FORECAST2023207-7842.56625.08833.827172.9593699634400.565.275.83TF10.56613.566114455.77273447678.8301650014850.49295491714609162113126WETL
2023-04-21 04:00:13FORECAST2023207-7841.46824.58433.026172.6679023502600.445.285.72TF9.46812.468114455.6674747605478.6791470361440.44912313412597162112124WETL
2023-04-21 00:00:04FORECAST2023207-7843.66424.27833.971177.1672685972400.335.365.69TF11.6649.664114457.2837104902681.0157059615690.53687201160633163112125WETL
2023-04-20 20:00:04FORECAST2023207-7843.89823.91833.908172.3802089786600.335.295.62TF11.89814.898114455.5635016154178.5301316115150.54619164871294163112125WETL
2023-04-20 16:00:06FORECAST2023207-7846.00424.58435.294171.6515417877600.35.315.61TF14.00417.004114455.2998191984878.1529159411080.62833441822309163112125WETL
2023-04-20 12:00:04FORECAST2023207-7842.69223.933.296174.5240461178700.425.285.7TF10.69212.692114456.3364667037479.641686560270.49800030995862162112124WETL
2023-04-20 08:00:04FORECAST2023207-7842.92623.57633.251174.6616776879500.425.345.76TF10.92620.926114456.3859464274179.7131350762150.50737056201209163112125WETL
2023-04-20 04:00:11FORECAST2023207-7843.57423.55833.566175.4990809900100.465.355.81TF11.57415.574114456.6866275518280.1480834357730.53328185645389163112125WETL
2023-04-20 00:00:06FORECAST2023207-7843.44822.24432.846177.4314859157900.915.626.53TT11.44817.448114457.3780481089281.1532667012320.5282511518662163113127.5WETL
2023-04-19 20:00:06FORECAST2023207-7843.53824.06233.8175.8273078491700.855.636.48TT11.5387.538114456.8043075454680.3186716096210.53184501931973163113127.5WETL
2023-04-19 16:00:07FORECAST2023207-7846.25624.0835.168173.122180324800.855.646.49TT14.25617.256114455.8314973951178.9145426897590.63785876093708163113127.5WETL
2023-04-19 12:00:05FORECAST2023207-7838.71423.66631.19176.2760262442100.676.016.68TT6.71412.714114456.9650290083180.5519794461530.34298712539309162113126WETL
2023-04-19 08:00:07FORECAST2023207-7839.9222.85631.388176.9543283634100.695.946.63TT7.928.92114457.2076350401880.9048699811560.3884868850972162113126WETL
2023-04-19 04:00:10FORECAST2023207-7839.224.45831.829177.4275141145400.686.026.7TT7.213.2114457.376630463681.151198557240.36109295256347162113126WETL
2023-04-19 00:00:07FORECAST2023207-7842.83622.78432.81183.2750442079600.726.977.69TT10.83612.836114459.4483621118684.2054188773260.50376681778737163113127.5WETL
2023-04-18 20:00:05FORECAST2023207-7842.9822.9132.945179.036218204400.827.518.33TT10.9814.98114457.9496526699181.9895739420390.50953253865361163113127.5WETL
2023-04-18 16:00:04FORECAST2023207-7845.33825.0735.204178.9982109158200.827.278.09TT13.33818.338114457.9361414193281.9697500277520.60279641039119163113127.5WETL
2023-04-18 12:00:08FORECAST2023207-7834.57423.23428.904178.88702004050.19685050.60685056.597.1968505TT2.5748.574114457.8966065687481.9117594357380.20612029226327161113124.5WETL
2023-04-18 08:00:04FORECAST2023207-7836.57226.40231.487178.067400909570.15748040.56748046.797.3574804TT4.57219.572114457.6048393413481.4845043851530.26784235342997162113126WETL
2023-04-18 04:00:13FORECAST2023207-7834.57423.23428.904178.784938098110.185039470.605039476.537.13503947TT2.5748.574114457.860300643581.8585255081290.20612029226327161113124.5WETL
2023-04-18 00:00:08FORECAST2023207-7833.74623.8128.778174.973252391990.291338740.691338745.726.41133874TT1.7467.746114456.4978963093879.8749216273560.18323424513591161113124.5WETL
2023-04-17 20:00:07FORECAST2023207-7833.47623.25228.364174.647255997930.303149770.783149775.896.67314977TT1.4768.476114456.3807625180579.7056478640210.17612714039055161113124.5WETL
2023-04-17 16:00:06FORECAST2023207-7832.1823.88228.031174.290144788310.397638010.747638015.786.52763801TT0.186.18114456.2523374926579.5202859616010.1444781091717161113124.5WETL
2023-04-17 12:00:08FORECAST2023207-7831.08222.5526.816178.840725944510.437008111.287008115.987.26700811TT-0.9189.082114457.8801430212581.8876171734940.12084929925695161114126WETL
2023-04-17 08:00:07FORECAST2023207-7832.25222.96427.608179.446516455430.385826981.315826986.127.43582698TT0.25213.252114458.0954270089682.2036285809230.14612918963694161114126WETL
2023-04-17 04:00:18FORECAST2023207-7833.56623.66628.616176.697016291420.200787511.210787515.87.01078751TT1.56620.566114457.1156523011480.7709718617150.17847658731002161114126WETL
2023-04-17 00:00:09FORECAST2023207-7839.50623.73831.622180.7829885462300.486.446.92TT7.5061.506114458.5692084667882.9015119619030.37265775289533162112124WETL
2023-04-16 20:00:07FORECAST2023207-7841.79225.17833.485176.6945814644800.56.557.05TT9.7926.792114457.1147816232280.769705020140.46201679335338162113126WETL
2023-04-16 16:00:07FORECAST2023207-7846.14826.99636.572174.9096586424400.586.146.72TT14.14814.148114456.4750540480879.841895882340.63378694421548163113127.5WETL
2023-04-16 12:00:07FORECAST2023207-7842.4426.47434.457178.1161798926200.586.567.14TT10.4415.44114457.6222206409381.509921774540.48791065115312162113126WETL
2023-04-16 08:00:08FORECAST2023207-7841.59426.88834.241178.4122720538400.556.577.12TT9.59411.594114457.7276802624281.664235417550.45413171438994162113126WETL
2023-04-16 04:00:10FORECAST2023207-7841.23426.13233.683179.958284248480.251968640.731968646.687.41196864TT9.2349.234114458.2770395387782.470749745870.43984355312548162113126WETL
2023-04-16 00:00:09FORECAST2023207-7830.97425.21428.094180.0095770878500.396.156.54TT-1.026-2.026114458.2952289653882.4975303474390.11868087416579161112123WETL
2023-04-15 20:00:08FORECAST2023207-7830.32624.27827.302179.9283429890700.46.076.47TF-1.674-3.674114458.266420697382.4551177235990.1062451693922161112123WETL
2023-04-15 16:00:06FORECAST2023207-7831.92830.07431.001178.1178227694500.066.266.32TF-0.0719999999999993.928114457.6228060058581.5107778554070.13879833364598161111121.5WETL
2023-04-15 12:00:04FORECAST2023207-7833.63831.51432.576178.722272232220.070866180.260866186.146.40086618TF1.6383.638114457.8380085685181.825849205640.18037025708273161112123WETL
2023-04-15 08:00:07FORECAST2023207-7833.36831.13632.252180.124331500890.070866180.250866186.196.44086618TF1.368-0.632114458.335914505182.5574502030810.17333371248322161112123WETL
2023-04-15 04:00:10FORECAST2023207-7832.9931.87432.432175.56183448646005.825.82TF0.993.99114456.7091343055380.1806934454020.16377980329628161111121.5WETL