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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, April 24, 2023

[ Sunday, April 23, 2023 | Index | Today | Tuesday, April 25, 2023 ]

DAY 206 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/25/2023 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 33.06°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.71°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.89°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.120
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 18

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.47 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.29 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.16 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.45 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 170 in
SWE DAY: 113
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 454.09 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 77.11 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -79

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-04-25 04:00:11OBSERVATION2023206-7933.0600226.7099829.885169.809371666670.470000000000031.296.167.45TT1.0600218.06002113454.08555561536 77.1079828819540.1204698329489716 1114126WETL
2023-04-25 00:00:02FORECAST2023206-7832.84622.15427.5172.434472249410.366141931.186141936.167.34614193TT0.84617.846114455.5831183191478.5582345730990.11571305224911161114126WETL
2023-04-24 12:00:02FORECAST2023206-7833.87223.4528.661170.631904762830.437008111.257008116.167.41700811TT1.87218.872114454.9300234650277.6255764376380.13975789654221161114126WETL
2023-04-24 08:00:02FORECAST2023206-7832.97223.16228.067170.619115631490.429134091.249134096.167.40913409TT0.97217.972114454.925379096677.6189658597840.118497150764161114126WETL
2023-04-24 04:00:11FORECAST2023206-7832.93622.4627.698171.152798410830.43307111.25307116.167.4130711TT0.93617.936114455.1190576524177.8949003273120.11769692173054161114126WETL
2023-04-24 00:00:03FORECAST2023206-7932.77423.75628.265176.699383765360.539370371.349370376.167.50937037TT0.77412.774113456.5805038390880.6774936676440.11414309261525161114126WETL
2023-04-23 20:00:02FORECAST2023206-7933.3523.5428.445176.232168693460.559055421.269055426.167.42905542TT1.3514.35113456.4126967278780.4345993635830.12713146197051161114126WETL
2023-04-23 16:00:02FORECAST2023206-7932.39623.73828.067176.254526036970.559055421.269055426.167.42905542TT0.39613.396113456.4207312315580.4462196566650.10614881303164161114126WETL
2023-04-23 12:00:02FORECAST2023206-7932.34224.40428.373176.571368700150.539370371.249370376.167.40937037TT0.34213.342113456.5345451652880.6109294987340.10504052753416161114126WETL
2023-04-23 08:00:04FORECAST2023206-7931.06422.92826.996177.452472098140.531496351.251496356.167.41149635TT-0.93612.064113456.8505676636381.069262611350.081199359569819161114126WETL
2023-04-23 04:00:07FORECAST2023206-7931.60424.2627.932177.11416965860.543307381.333307386.167.49330738TT-0.39612.604113456.7293134626280.8932331126750.090722835982762161114126WETL
2023-04-23 00:00:04FORECAST2023206-7932.57624.5328.553178.078183450550.437008111.197008116.167.35700811TT0.57612.576113457.0745604467581.3950074258140.10990385531561161114126WETL
2023-04-22 20:00:04FORECAST2023206-7932.7224.47628.598178.551230245510.448819141.118819146.167.27881914TT0.7210.72113457.243666070981.6414190989270.1129755897268161114126WETL
2023-04-22 16:00:03FORECAST2023206-7931.8224.0827.95179.038602886470.464567181.074567186.167.23456718TT-0.188.82113457.4176805444181.8954224602420.094755214601087161114126WETL
2023-04-22 12:00:03FORECAST2023206-7931.9124.04427.977178.381072076470.452756150.942756156.167.10275615TT-0.098.91113457.1828610182481.5527688834210.096473676543943161113124.5WETL
2023-04-22 08:00:05FORECAST2023206-7932.07224.20628.139178.060626955110.437008110.937008116.167.09700811TT0.0720000000000039.072113457.0682804077181.3858645706920.099624225299049161113124.5WETL
2023-04-22 04:00:11FORECAST2023206-7931.83823.77427.806177.471912247420.381889970.961889976.167.12188997TT-0.1628.838113456.8575322276181.0793798690690.09509709578328161113124.5WETL
2023-04-22 00:00:05FORECAST2023206-7931.69422.74827.221176.071967211340.425197081.045197085.776.81519708TT-0.3065.694113456.3551121645180.3513423457590.092387291996794161114126WETL
2023-04-21 20:00:03FORECAST2023206-7931.42424.45827.941174.981953637170.389763991.039763995.786.81976399TT-0.5766.424113455.9626831121879.7852410766120.087460645852847161114126WETL
2023-04-21 16:00:04FORECAST2023206-7932.55824.1728.364174.473449167680.31496080.82496085.786.6049608TT0.55812.558113455.779238238479.5213757544730.10952413029203161113124.5WETL
2023-04-21 12:00:05FORECAST2023206-7932.01823.14427.581174.90969853240.185039470.665039475.786.44503947TT0.01800000000000110.018113455.9366312545579.7477387226130.098565822658576161113124.5WETL
2023-04-21 08:00:05FORECAST2023206-7931.58623.16227.374173.442218763440.15748040.56748045.786.3474804TF-0.4147.586113455.4064897802678.986712026760.090392623134248161113124.5WETL
2023-04-21 04:00:13FORECAST2023206-7931.5523.32427.437173.043790350260.086614220.486614225.756.23661422TF-0.457.55113455.2622121910878.780298800790.089734867427498161112123WETL
2023-04-21 00:00:04FORECAST2023206-7931.65823.84627.752177.727853397240.137795350.397795355.816.20779535TF-0.3422.658113456.9491928018481.2125991482710.091718827081492161112123WETL
2023-04-20 20:00:04FORECAST2023206-7933.54824.11628.832172.930953778660.15748040.38748045.756.1374804TF1.5487.548113455.2213256444778.7218580240850.13182432211384161112123WETL
2023-04-20 16:00:05FORECAST2023206-7932.91824.42228.67172.336700987760.129921330.379921335.756.12992133TF0.9187.918113455.0058035415278.4141991126310.11729824022876161112123WETL
2023-04-20 12:00:04FORECAST2023206-7932.23424.40428.319175.023327717870.177165450.477165455.746.21716545TF0.2347.234113455.9775985444879.8067166620590.10284905199391161112123WETL
2023-04-20 08:00:04FORECAST2023206-7933.99825.66429.831175.132718487950.173228440.493228445.796.28322844TF1.99814.998113456.0170265686479.8635015397580.14292883951943161113124.5WETL
2023-04-20 04:00:11FORECAST2023206-7932.30624.74628.526175.973467390010.228346580.528346585.86.32834658TF0.3069.306113456.319694682980.3001589117030.10430632352181161113124.5WETL
2023-04-20 00:00:06FORECAST2023206-7932.3623.52227.941177.931751515790.216535551.076535555.977.04653555TT0.3611.36113457.0221724972481.3187556339870.10540902459362161114126WETL
2023-04-19 20:00:06FORECAST2023206-7930.97423.12627.05176.378839849170.200787511.040787515.967.00078751TT-1.0260.974113456.4653972605880.5108372001110.079688029201994161114126WETL
2023-04-19 16:00:07FORECAST2023206-7933.04424.60228.823173.79730272480.169291431.019291435.997.00929143TT1.0448.044113455.5349486287879.1707453685610.12010909096111161114126WETL
2023-04-19 12:00:05FORECAST2023206-7933.74625.0729.408176.539443044210.204724521.2047245267.20472452TT1.74610.746113456.523081210980.5943304937970.13663498581332161114126WETL
2023-04-19 08:00:07FORECAST2023206-7932.28823.10827.698177.247068363410.208661531.068661536.087.14866153TT0.2886.288113456.7769593799780.9623769460510.10394061486771161114126WETL
2023-04-19 04:00:09FORECAST2023206-7933.92624.92629.426177.719073314540.251968641.141968646.087.22196864TT1.92610.926113456.9460493650481.2080284478940.1411109846394161114126WETL
2023-04-19 00:00:06FORECAST2023206-7934.23224.65629.444183.758877007960.129921331.239921336.978.20992133TT2.2327.232113459.0919359937384.3622186016180.14894547842614161114126WETL
2023-04-18 20:00:05FORECAST2023206-7934.7923.46829.129179.55990300440.173228441.343228447.518.85322844TT2.798.79113457.6035704108982.1672527174470.16396484357505161114126WETL
2023-04-18 16:00:04FORECAST2023206-7934.03424.49429.264179.681697315820.220472561.340472567.278.61047256TT2.03410.034113457.6469654581282.230783524950.14384365926488161114126WETL
2023-04-18 12:00:08FORECAST2023206-7932.57624.27828.427177.708876612480.149606380.669606386.857.51960638TT0.57610.576113456.9423986635581.2027203431110.10990385531561161113124.5WETL
2023-04-18 08:00:04FORECAST2023206-7936.66226.3331.496177.340520972530.177165450.677165457.047.71716545TT4.66219.662113456.8104537280881.0110038498370.22121562008468161113124.5WETL
2023-04-18 04:00:13FORECAST2023206-7932.57624.27828.427177.696280391480.15748040.69748046.777.4674804TT0.57610.576113456.9378887373381.1961631985580.10990385531561161113124.5WETL
2023-04-18 00:00:08FORECAST2023206-7933.58423.7228.652173.54463355560.086614220.596614226.046.63661422TT1.58410.584113455.4435523052679.0397843900760.13269020930522161113124.5WETL
2023-04-17 20:00:07FORECAST2023206-7933.51223.03628.274172.660549310690.066929170.636929176.256.88692917TT1.51211.512113455.1232963681278.5818383550120.13096232952446161113124.5WETL
2023-04-17 16:00:06FORECAST2023206-7933.13421.4727.302171.624683184830.074803190.524803196.136.65480319TT1.13411.134113454.7471419560278.0458341674110.122145596721161113124.5WETL
2023-04-17 12:00:08FORECAST2023206-7931.47820.87626.177175.744252201880.59055150.96055156.397.3505515TT-0.52215.478113456.2372416978480.1810728688350.088430006332633161113124.5WETL
2023-04-17 08:00:06FORECAST2023206-7932.921.70427.302176.665247795470.665354691.055354696.517.56535469TT0.917.9113456.5682501495780.6597430482190.1169005131961161114126WETL
2023-04-17 04:00:17FORECAST2023206-7933.63822.60428.121175.342088054520.649606651.239606656.097.32960665TT1.63823.638113456.0924596899379.9722042279540.1339963498702161114126WETL
2023-04-17 00:00:08FORECAST2023206-7930.3824.11627.248181.089602946230.251968640.741968646.77.44196864TT-1.62-0.62113458.1476258377282.9657716537120.07024048946998161113124.5WETL
2023-04-16 20:00:07FORECAST2023206-7931.2824.69227.986177.153420664480.271653690.751653696.827.57165369TT-0.722.28113456.7433871333380.9136533965480.084914355347449161113124.5WETL
2023-04-16 16:00:07FORECAST2023206-7932.66625.6129.138175.712799442440.303149770.773149776.477.24314977TT0.6664.666113456.2259238067280.1647342502940.11181660835768161113124.5WETL
2023-04-16 12:00:07FORECAST2023206-7934.4327.3230.875178.534871892620.07874021.10874026.557.6587402TT2.4310.43113457.2378216483881.6328959124550.154166457974161114126WETL
2023-04-16 08:00:08FORECAST2023206-7934.71828.18431.451178.794752853840.070866181.030866186.617.64086618TT2.7186.718113457.3306417820181.7683190699010.16197360516602161114126WETL
2023-04-16 04:00:09FORECAST2023206-7934.77226.31230.542179.829378389550.031496080.951496086.737.68149608TT2.7724.772113457.6995658976282.3078284245370.16346555492131161113124.5WETL
2023-04-16 00:00:08FORECAST2023206-7936.5923.0929.84180.009577087850.035433090.595433096.467.05543309TT4.593.59113457.7637216110682.4018539333680.21882215840294161113124.5WETL
2023-04-15 20:00:07FORECAST2023206-7934.84423.30629.075179.928342989070.035433090.615433096.376.98543309TT2.8442.844113457.734803663382.3594647515660.16546862452428161113124.5WETL
2023-04-15 16:00:06FORECAST2023206-7939.12824.99832.063178.1178227694500.266.586.84TT7.1289.128113457.0887385832381.4156509288780.31161131492728162112124WETL
2023-04-15 12:00:04FORECAST2023206-7940.17224.72832.45178.352969054320.094488240.414488246.446.85448824TT8.1727.172113457.1728160344781.5381291106730.35415983101785162112124WETL
2023-04-15 08:00:06FORECAST2023206-7941.5424.74633.143179.533227019650.094488240.394488246.56.89448824TT9.542.54113457.5940640234782.1533389791710.41271022176231162112124WETL
2023-04-15 04:00:10FORECAST2023206-7936.9525.19631.073175.5696080864600.226.126.34TF4.957.95113456.174386717380.0903582950370.23093759109637161112123WETL
2023-04-15 00:00:06FORECAST2023206-7933.20631.65832.432173.11753745384005.515.51TF1.20616.206113455.2889282630478.8184980908970.12379211259892161111121.5WETL
2023-04-14 20:00:05FORECAST2023206-7933.36830.97432.171173.22286066099005.555.55TF1.36814.368113455.3270746091878.8730584002030.12755323340286161111121.5WETL
2023-04-14 16:00:05FORECAST2023206-7930.0222.08226.051174.11108940340.027559070.067559075.545.60755907TF-1.986.02113455.6483709547679.3334342518160.064947552356095161111121.5WETL
2023-04-14 12:00:08FORECAST2023206-7932.1829.55230.866176.6093537804006.016.01TF0.189.18113456.5481837438380.6306797006110.10176581544237161111121.5WETL
2023-04-14 08:00:06FORECAST2023206-7932.12629.55230.839175.99545801885005.945.94TF0.12612.126113456.3276025995180.3115854261450.10069088131643161111121.5WETL
2023-04-14 04:00:11FORECAST2023206-7922.96420.42621.695178.059370170160.03937010.28937015.96.1893701TF-9.036-1.036113457.0678308392281.3852100842720.010436324550478161112123WETL