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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, April 23, 2023

[ Saturday, April 22, 2023 | Index | Today | Monday, April 24, 2023 ]

DAY 205 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/24/2023 04:00:10 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 39.51°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.66°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.08°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.330
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 8
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 20

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.70 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.23 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.52 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.75 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 169 in
SWE DAY: 112
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 453.41 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 76.83 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -80

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-04-24 04:00:10OBSERVATION2023205-8039.5099628.6599234.08494169.452059090910.699999999999931.22999999999996.527.7499999999999TT7.5099619.50996112453.40694242679 76.8307400003330.3297557847107916 2114128WETL
2023-04-24 00:00:02FORECAST2023205-7935.29426.74431.019174.562492696540.688976751.218976756.527.73897675TT3.29415.294113455.8113781364579.5675703669460.18175044617382161114126WETL
2023-04-23 12:00:02FORECAST2023205-7935.85227.15831.505174.475942489850.594488511.124488516.527.64448851TT3.85215.852113455.7801382917779.5226691966110.19857008349574161114126WETL
2023-04-23 08:00:02FORECAST2023205-7936.10426.0631.082175.2829574420.602362531.132362536.527.65236253TT4.10416.104113456.0711597669779.941501687960.2064635076966161114126WETL
2023-04-23 04:00:06FORECAST2023205-7936.28427.1431.712175.007181201480.66929171.19929176.527.7192917TT4.28416.284113455.9717778820879.7983355545720.21221356826762161114126WETL
2023-04-23 00:00:03FORECAST2023205-8036.15827.4131.784176.277960207990.696850771.166850776.527.68685077TT4.15815.158112455.8905402862580.3634545197770.20817877902993161114126WETL
2023-04-22 20:00:02FORECAST2023205-8035.58227.17631.379176.683774173490.673228711.083228716.527.60322871TT3.58212.582112456.0368436027980.5743106899060.19031758073473161114126WETL
2023-04-22 16:00:01FORECAST2023205-8034.77226.45630.614177.06824731720.614173561.024173566.527.54417356TT2.77211.772112456.1753141165280.7741633399840.16684751787351161114126WETL
2023-04-22 12:00:03FORECAST2023205-8034.64626.9630.803176.480575180490.492126250.902126256.527.42212625TT2.64611.646112455.9636055200780.4687193635520.16337153589836161113124.5WETL
2023-04-22 08:00:05FORECAST2023205-8034.95226.88830.92176.272784541020.476378210.906378216.527.42637821TT2.95211.952112455.8886733900680.3607658991770.17189512634754161113124.5WETL
2023-04-22 04:00:11FORECAST2023205-8035.22227.66231.442175.856223031710.535433360.985433366.527.50543336TT3.22212.222112455.738336481480.1444225443730.17964686571575161113124.5WETL
2023-04-22 00:00:05FORECAST2023205-8034.0726.1530.11174.104227564980.606299540.636299546.527.15629954TT2.079.07112455.104297630979.235582200530.14808337020386161113124.5WETL
2023-04-21 20:00:03FORECAST2023205-8034.41227.06830.74173.237835963610.606299540.676299546.527.19629954TT2.41210.412112454.7897104391278.7867852549910.15704156067247161113124.5WETL
2023-04-21 16:00:04FORECAST2023205-8037.02227.73432.378173.052436421650.488189240.538189246.527.05818924TT5.02215.022112454.7223018098878.6908022234610.2367444691829161113124.5WETL
2023-04-21 12:00:05FORECAST2023205-8036.06827.46431.766174.044022312870.460630170.510630176.527.03063017TT4.06813.068112455.0824594509879.2043817268840.20532465028429161113124.5WETL
2023-04-21 08:00:05FORECAST2023205-8035.72627.17631.451172.715463286830.397638010.437638016.526.95763801TT3.72610.726112454.59970187478.5163981192250.19469243858944161112123WETL
2023-04-21 04:00:13FORECAST2023205-8035.85227.3231.586172.657802173460.346456880.396456886.526.91645688TT3.85210.852112454.5787126859878.4865614472010.19857008349574161112123WETL
2023-04-21 00:00:03FORECAST2023205-8034.68225.95230.317177.030396852620.192913490.272913496.576.84291349TT2.6825.682112456.1616880247180.7544846599760.1643598515401161112123WETL
2023-04-20 20:00:03FORECAST2023205-8035.63627.1431.388172.188122918930.169291430.239291436.516.74929143TT3.6368.636112454.4076304671178.2435969301690.19195104369008161112123WETL
2023-04-20 16:00:05FORECAST2023205-8036.42827.69832.063171.703726306260.165354420.255354426.516.76535442TT4.42810.428112454.2309734798277.9931507502040.21688015834701161112123WETL
2023-04-20 12:00:04FORECAST2023205-8036.62627.53632.081174.197586479510.240157610.300157616.516.81015761TT4.6269.626112455.1381549959279.2839681150290.22339241594148161112123WETL
2023-04-20 08:00:04FORECAST2023205-8037.52628.45432.99174.388303207210.248031630.328031636.556.87803163TT5.52615.526112455.2072950108279.382827784480.25435346074606162112124WETL
2023-04-20 04:00:10FORECAST2023205-8037.74228.29233.017174.906045258460.232283590.312283596.566.87228359TT5.74211.742112455.3948218338379.6513073181350.26210477309596162112124WETL
2023-04-20 00:00:05FORECAST2023205-8037.68825.8831.784176.792618846170.688976750.878976756.727.59897675TT5.68813.688112456.0760584457880.6308807656670.26015567288285162113126WETL
2023-04-19 20:00:05FORECAST2023205-8034.75425.08829.921175.243758172910.645669640.875669646.697.56566964TT2.7544.754112455.5170090519879.8265125779510.16634805621312161113124.5WETL
2023-04-19 16:00:06FORECAST2023205-8037.00427.55432.279172.932382483290.681102730.911102736.77.61110273TT5.00410.004112454.6786349741678.6286596103310.23612820339387161113124.5WETL
2023-04-19 12:00:05FORECAST2023205-8036.66227.12231.892175.528336732790.47244121.12244126.657.7724412TT4.66211.662112455.6198904967779.9742015612750.22458828202076161114126WETL
2023-04-19 08:00:06FORECAST2023205-8034.6125.1629.885176.056073329130.484252231.014252236.77.71425223TT2.618.61112455.8104822374180.2482036849740.16238707901823161114126WETL
2023-04-19 04:00:09FORECAST2023205-8035.0627.15831.109176.470604146030.429134091.029134096.717.73913409TT3.0612.06112455.9600107327480.4635385604380.17496988898969161114126WETL
2023-04-19 00:00:06FORECAST2023205-8036.06826.47431.271183.002128413060.586614492.026614496.828.84661449TT4.0688.068112458.2953797895683.8690299433620.20532465028429161115127.5WETL
2023-04-18 20:00:04FORECAST2023205-8035.49225.39430.443178.626929752670.645669642.555669646.899.44566964TT3.4929.492112456.7353004746781.5852244334520.18761414369605161115127.5WETL
2023-04-18 16:00:03FORECAST2023205-8034.21426.63630.425178.53733926060.598425522.368425526.799.15842552TT2.21411.214112456.7031734015781.5385694109870.15181280564434161115127.5WETL
2023-04-18 12:00:07FORECAST2023205-8034.2527.53630.893176.843664644480.255905651.665905656.478.13590565TT2.2513.25112456.0944456251980.6574131883490.15275480580495161115127.5WETL
2023-04-18 08:00:03FORECAST2023205-8036.12229.3932.756176.529739298530.228346581.678346586.638.30834658TT4.12218.122112455.9813289846680.4942651306610.20703433419921161115127.5WETL
2023-04-18 04:00:12FORECAST2023205-8034.2527.53630.893176.79127002640.259842661.629842666.458.07984266TT2.2513.25112456.0755725558180.630179700160.15275480580495161115127.5WETL
2023-04-18 00:00:07FORECAST2023205-8033.96226.9630.461172.995251534990.311023790.791023796.537.32102379TT1.96211.962112454.7015037943478.6612010222410.14532675550121161113124.5WETL
2023-04-17 20:00:07FORECAST2023205-8034.10626.83430.47172.23853081170.409449041.099449046.497.58944904TT2.10613.106112454.4260014868778.2696668587320.14900994630478161114126WETL
2023-04-17 16:00:05FORECAST2023205-8033.33225.729.516171.12203428790.283464720.853464726.57.35346472TT1.33213.332112454.0185459277877.6925771835950.12993499997172161113124.5WETL
2023-04-17 12:00:07FORECAST2023205-8036.06824.00830.038172.184812370070.255905650.825905656.77.52590565TT4.06819.068112454.4064238642578.2418848328210.20532465028429161113124.5WETL
2023-04-17 08:00:06FORECAST2023205-8036.24824.83630.542172.871133431910.263779670.883779676.797.67377967TT4.24820.248112454.6563519221178.5969588787930.21105614058511161113124.5WETL
2023-04-17 04:00:17FORECAST2023205-8036.98625.731.343171.646291819990.358267910.628267916.827.44826791TT4.98624.986112454.2100129968777.9634644384220.23551282089621161113124.5WETL
2023-04-17 00:00:08FORECAST2023205-8033.22427.03230.128179.227889178320.228346580.698346587.267.95834658TT1.2244.224112456.950615112981.8982942054190.12741380792596161113124.5WETL
2023-04-16 20:00:07FORECAST2023205-8033.06227.71630.389175.222536600780.228346580.648346587.428.06834658TT1.0626.062112455.5093340042179.8155009495480.1236959677455161113124.5WETL
2023-04-16 16:00:06FORECAST2023205-8035.25828.4931.874173.688724350510.283464720.603464727.117.71346472TT3.2587.258112454.9535146120579.0202955917490.18069674111758161113124.5WETL
2023-04-16 12:00:06FORECAST2023205-8035.81630.16432.99178.066492809840.503937281.183937287.178.35393728TT3.81610.816112456.53420804281.2934452737560.19745746944457161114126WETL
2023-04-16 08:00:07FORECAST2023205-8037.27430.9234.097178.412150451230.480315221.100315227.248.34031522TT5.2747.274112456.6582685555181.4733837143220.24546425403933161114126WETL
2023-04-16 04:00:09FORECAST2023205-8036.19428.79632.495179.713570754970.448819141.058819147.368.41881914TT4.1945.194112457.1243874648482.1514559504840.2093269411707161114126WETL
2023-04-16 00:00:08FORECAST2023205-8032.70226.16829.435179.878233773240.35433090.64433097.157.7943309TT0.7021.702112457.1832537183982.2373161895660.11570702684958161113124.5WETL
2023-04-15 20:00:06FORECAST2023205-8032.95426.34829.651179.731457244830.362204920.662204927.067.72220492TT0.9542.954112457.1307829927482.1607817787550.12125987761434161113124.5WETL
2023-04-15 16:00:06FORECAST2023205-8033.825.71829.759178.284709169450.059055150.349055157.267.60905515TT1.84.8112456.6125410855681.4070340905620.14125676494067161112123WETL
2023-04-15 12:00:04FORECAST2023205-8036.06824.4430.254178.641084254320.102362260.652362266.887.53236226TT4.0682.068112456.7403755980181.5925959195540.20532465028429161113124.5WETL
2023-04-15 08:00:06FORECAST2023205-8034.2523.19828.724179.341383162110.086614220.716614226.857.56661422TT2.25-3.75112456.9912414011581.9574413258520.15275480580495161113124.5WETL
2023-04-15 04:00:10FORECAST2023205-8037.63427.0532.342175.7952392864600.466.657.11TT5.6345.634112455.7163141171280.1127584869620.25821406050721162112124WETL
2023-04-15 00:00:05FORECAST2023205-8041.97229.1235.546173.13564305384006.286.28TF9.97217.972112454.7525584810278.7338766429910.4335803844483162111122WETL
2023-04-14 20:00:05FORECAST2023205-8042.60229.31835.96173.24500066099006.326.32TF10.60215.602112454.7923147838978.7904948753480.46123306400265162111122WETL
2023-04-14 16:00:05FORECAST2023205-8037.3127.19432.252173.7886427337500.056.36.35TF5.3111.31112454.9897887823379.0720578501960.24672385241736161111121.5WETL
2023-04-14 12:00:08FORECAST2023205-8045.96826.34836.158176.610337780400.036.756.78TT13.96811.968112456.0103796216980.5361471763530.6088574876874163111122.5WETL
2023-04-14 08:00:06FORECAST2023205-8044.40228.2236.311175.9961468188500.026.696.71TT12.40215.402112455.7888526717880.2170818332180.54081840743327163111122.5WETL
2023-04-14 04:00:11FORECAST2023205-8036.9524.00830.479177.542061572330.240157610.270157616.656.92015761TT4.9510.95112456.3457755100581.0205697738770.23428471048767161112123WETL
2023-04-14 00:00:05FORECAST2023205-8028.43624.45826.447175.009672468670.011811030.201811036.276.47181103TF-3.564-5.564112455.4323261295179.705062227570.04731482733614161112123WETL
2023-04-13 20:00:04FORECAST2023205-8028.81422.87425.844175.1733519608600.166.296.45TF-3.186-13.186112455.4915441715679.789980582360.051619008008952161112123WETL
2023-04-13 16:00:05FORECAST2023205-8027.28422.5524.917179.814762332330.035433090.345433096.87.14543309TT-4.716-11.716112457.160565893282.2042185037990.03594091304133161112123WETL
2023-04-13 12:00:07FORECAST2023205-8031.08228.07629.579183.559784997150.535433361.155433366.427.57543336TT-0.9183.082112458.4929824560984.1608732823410.084274763045429161114126WETL
2023-04-13 08:00:06FORECAST2023205-8030.81227.7729.291184.379478867290.535433361.135433366.477.60543336TT-1.188-5.188112458.7829290511484.5901573716560.079725666557372161114126WETL
2023-04-13 04:00:12FORECAST2023205-8027.84227.24827.545183.763402734880.259842660.959842666.57.45984266TT-4.158-10.158112458.565063598284.2674764621410.041135280400729161113124.5WETL