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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, April 22, 2023

[ Friday, April 21, 2023 | Index | Today | Sunday, April 23, 2023 ]

DAY 204 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/23/2023 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 42.60°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.09°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.35°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.460
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 11
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 12

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.12 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.15 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.90 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.05 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 174 in
SWE DAY: 111
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 454.69 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 79.33 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -81

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-04-23 04:00:05OBSERVATION2023204-8142.6000228.0900435.34503174.462163913040.121.155.97.05TT10.6000211.60002111454.69090061859 79.326358433490.4596756365176216 2114128WETL
2023-04-23 00:00:02FORECAST2023204-8042.04427.4134.727175.53073040.062992161.092992165.96.99299216TT10.04411.044112455.6207555450779.9754440062270.43565651142119162114128WETL
2023-04-22 12:00:02FORECAST2023204-8039.88427.33833.611175.62204560.003937011.033937015.96.93393701TT7.8848.884112455.6537520527880.0228440208240.34533262838832162114128WETL
2023-04-22 08:00:03FORECAST2023204-8039.72227.33833.53175.62548960.019685051.049685055.96.94968505TT7.7228.722112455.6549963833780.0246318285160.33883312267302162114128WETL
2023-04-22 04:00:10FORECAST2023204-8039.61426.65433.134175.455622666670.043307111.073307115.96.97330711TT7.6148.614112455.5936098260779.9364604949880.33452646241207162114128WETL
2023-04-22 00:00:04FORECAST2023204-8138.01226.04232.027172.824142095490.011811030.651811035.96.55181103TT6.0127.012111454.0938271369578.4783761057980.27343289328703162113126WETL
2023-04-21 20:00:02FORECAST2023204-8139.1126.11432.612172.740985552580.035433090.685433095.96.58543309TT7.118.11111454.0634495314978.4353677754730.31472269706767162113126WETL
2023-04-21 16:00:02FORECAST2023204-8140.51426.7833.647172.56536720.019685050.669685055.96.56968505TT8.5149.514111453.9992739605378.3445514195320.37102882465862162113126WETL
2023-04-21 12:00:05FORECAST2023204-8139.79426.20432.999172.783130237580.019685050.669685055.96.56968505TT7.7948.794111454.0788460505278.4571643952780.34171601471412162113126WETL
2023-04-21 08:00:04FORECAST2023204-8139.23625.62832.432172.759654532030.011811030.661811035.96.56181103TT7.2367.236111454.0702699850578.4450229758820.3196267978483162113126WETL
2023-04-21 04:00:12FORECAST2023204-8139.05625.4332.243172.508546934610.051181130.671181135.96.57118113TT7.0567.056111453.9785042090878.3151721006530.31263082791604162113126WETL
2023-04-21 00:00:03FORECAST2023204-8138.01225.7931.901176.454120077030.070866180.750866185.96.65086618TT6.0123.012111455.4136469549880.359614344510.27343289328703162113126WETL
2023-04-20 20:00:03FORECAST2023204-8137.5826.632.09171.924569409160.059055150.679055155.96.57905515TT5.584.58111453.7648666294478.013329308270.25795541796834162113126WETL
2023-04-20 16:00:04FORECAST2023204-8137.88625.55631.721171.900622912240.082677210.702677215.96.60267721TT5.8865.886111453.7560994727378.0009561495920.26887160218788162113126WETL
2023-04-20 12:00:03FORECAST2023204-8137.83225.5231.676174.12670402460.062992160.672992165.96.57299216TT5.8324.832111454.5688247098979.1525711990710.26692851201827162113126WETL
2023-04-20 08:00:03FORECAST2023204-8139.63225.82632.729174.150907421840.066929170.726929175.96.62692917TT7.6329.632111454.5776359565379.1651077955030.33524274882602162113126WETL
2023-04-20 04:00:10FORECAST2023204-8137.6725.55631.613174.549252786570.070866180.740866185.96.64086618TT5.675.67111454.7225757897279.3714858292780.26114206261564162113126WETL
2023-04-20 00:00:05FORECAST2023204-8138.82226.09632.459176.181379351770.173228440.833228446.086.91322844TT6.8227.822111455.3149037047580.2180077741230.30363625144005162113126WETL
2023-04-19 20:00:05FORECAST2023204-8137.61625.82631.721172.963935800980.185039470.875039476.046.91503947TT5.6161.616111454.1448801949178.5506859023740.25922765409696162113126WETL
2023-04-19 16:00:06FORECAST2023204-8138.53426.04232.288172.777664853960.173228440.893228446.046.93322844TT6.5344.534111454.076849500778.4543377209750.29272746752927162113126WETL
2023-04-19 12:00:05FORECAST2023204-8140.9128.16634.538174.382690132760.527559341.257559346.047.29755934TT8.916.91111454.6619890246179.2851807472230.3874888200367162114128WETL
2023-04-19 08:00:06FORECAST2023204-8139.57827.69833.638174.401358564140.377952961.127952966.17.22795296TT7.5785.578111454.6687808971879.2948530851690.3330956960726162114128WETL
2023-04-19 04:00:08FORECAST2023204-8140.51429.04834.781175.004307620150.464567181.224567186.097.31456718TT8.5148.514111454.8879702771179.607354283080.37102882465862162114128WETL
2023-04-19 00:00:05FORECAST2023204-8138.42628.36433.395181.592509617620.523622331.903622336.368.26362233TT6.4264.426111457.2612258624783.0352135551980.288684073837011621151210WETL
2023-04-18 20:00:04FORECAST2023204-8138.76829.60634.187177.591747018410.523622332.393622336.418.80362233TT6.7685.768111455.8247773110280.9507185369420.301577081373961621151210WETL
2023-04-18 16:00:03FORECAST2023204-8138.53429.49834.016176.509679300090.519685322.179685326.388.55968532TT6.5348.534111455.4337532711780.3884657323310.292727467529271621151210WETL
2023-04-18 12:00:06FORECAST2023204-8140.7329.04834.889176.331729134790.259842661.559842666.327.87984266TT8.7310.73111455.3693449101180.2960639829750.379979923702151621151210WETL
2023-04-18 08:00:03FORECAST2023204-8141.16232.66636.914176.192289075130.271653691.621653696.468.08165369TT9.16214.162111455.3188547824580.2236712831860.398071759346521621151210WETL
2023-04-18 04:00:12FORECAST2023204-8140.7329.04834.889176.295774950390.27559071.50559076.317.8155907TT8.7310.73111455.3563278991780.2773967055490.379979923702151621151210WETL
2023-04-18 00:00:07FORECAST2023204-8141.61229.37235.492171.643358128670.200787510.590787516.427.01078751TT9.6129.612111453.6618774918977.8680481076650.41715273566205162113126WETL
2023-04-17 20:00:06FORECAST2023204-8142.13429.85835.996170.454275772930.161417410.751417416.437.18141741TT10.13411.134111453.2255810006177.2542381712250.43953067166921162113126WETL
2023-04-17 16:00:05FORECAST2023204-8140.87428.59834.736169.835207475650.173228440.663228446.417.07322844TT8.87411.874111452.9979111502576.9349942262390.38598357029807162113126WETL
2023-04-17 12:00:07FORECAST2023204-8142.90829.69636.302171.68915468470.110236280.680236286.597.27023628TT10.90814.908111453.6786547635977.8917047348550.47304923951511162113126WETL
2023-04-17 08:00:06FORECAST2023204-8142.38628.23835.312172.307462013060.125984320.795984326.617.40598432TT10.38616.386111453.9049767089578.2112145318180.45040800148237162113126WETL
2023-04-17 04:00:17FORECAST2023204-8143.73630.7437.238171.084229998970.228346580.608346586.487.08834658TT11.73619.736111453.456887081377.5793223640330.50911272638747163113127.5WETL
2023-04-17 00:00:08FORECAST2023204-8139.16429.58834.376178.212671800710.259842661.219842666.517.72984266TT7.1643.164111456.0486744928781.2736527525490.31682052416478162114128WETL
2023-04-16 20:00:06FORECAST2023204-8138.87628.16633.521174.042417676510.248031631.188031636.657.83803163TT6.8764.876111454.5381360371979.1089161220890.30570166878821162114128WETL
2023-04-16 16:00:06FORECAST2023204-8137.32828.14832.738172.348502289460.185039471.025039476.47.42503947TT5.3284.328111453.9199862993378.2324297979390.24914117018195162114128WETL
2023-04-16 12:00:06FORECAST2023204-8140.06429.87634.97175.761000109110.531496351.381496356.477.85149635TT8.0647.064111455.1625752642979.9998294406910.35260806904411162114128WETL
2023-04-16 08:00:06FORECAST2023204-8139.75829.04834.403176.513594287050.480315221.310315226.557.86031522TT7.7581.758111455.4351699580180.3904988140220.34027340242672162114128WETL
2023-04-16 04:00:09FORECAST2023204-8138.89428.97633.935177.759637384640.468504191.348504196.627.96850419TT6.8940.894111455.8853511698681.0380147129230.30639152038307162114128WETL
2023-04-16 00:00:07FORECAST2023204-8138.78625.77232.279177.665399882310.212598540.802598546.647.44259854TT6.7860.786111455.8513540124680.9890130975180.30226277400783162113126WETL
2023-04-15 20:00:06FORECAST2023204-8137.81425.57431.694177.479475081770.220472560.830472566.537.36047256TT5.8141.814111455.7842558401180.8923504770370.26628239318919162113126WETL
2023-04-15 16:00:06FORECAST2023204-8137.61625.6131.613177.896823100520.200787510.850787516.77.55078751TT5.6162.616111455.9348277976781.1093574060880.25922765409696162113126WETL
2023-04-15 12:00:04FORECAST2023204-8136.3022329.651178.067562802160.220472561.130472566.37.43047256TT4.302-1.698111455.9963817408981.1981643432040.21496737973861161114126WETL
2023-04-15 08:00:05FORECAST2023204-8134.3422.08228.211178.764955939970.208661531.148661536.337.47866153TT2.34-5.66111456.2475242693781.5610685737320.15775079939321161114126WETL
2023-04-15 04:00:10FORECAST2023204-8136.87826.16831.523176.043010486460.224409570.774409576.347.11440957TT4.878-0.122111455.2647823790480.146182858470.23380803917301161113124.5WETL
2023-04-15 00:00:05FORECAST2023204-8141.52227.08634.304173.68806065384006.286.28TF9.5227.522111454.4090426900678.9254253684060.4133193530894162111122WETL
2023-04-14 20:00:05FORECAST2023204-8141.77427.66234.718173.83805746099006.326.32TF9.7744.774111454.4637011682379.0030869976160.42407246953421162111122WETL
2023-04-14 16:00:04FORECAST2023204-8138.69625.19631.946174.001481933750.03937010.04937016.36.3493701TF6.6965.696111454.5232289562779.0877154117030.29884132972942162111122WETL
2023-04-14 12:00:08FORECAST2023204-8137.43620.51628.976177.254267380400.46.386.78TT5.436-1.564111455.7029384618580.7752905001490.25289900815174162112124WETL
2023-04-14 08:00:06FORECAST2023204-8138.22821.66829.948176.5703108188500.346.376.71TT6.2283.228111455.4556919618880.4199530939240.28134020575103162112124WETL
2023-04-14 04:00:11FORECAST2023204-8136.10421.99229.048175.782008696690.007874020.137874026.546.67787402TT4.1046.104111455.1701917887680.0107306114860.20869999739639161112123WETL
2023-04-14 00:00:05FORECAST2023204-8135.40223.12629.264174.898091377710.102362260.262362266.26.46236226TF3.402-1.598111454.8493819629279.5522887696480.18736199761527161112123WETL
2023-04-13 20:00:04FORECAST2023204-8133.81822.13627.977175.173351960860.066929170.226929176.226.44692917TF1.818-10.182111454.9493625467579.695004809770.14438668415957161112123WETL
2023-04-13 16:00:04FORECAST2023204-8135.18621.00228.094179.426585897320.110236280.810236286.37.11023628TT3.186-6.814111456.485377017481.9056127102820.18107721172047161113124.5WETL
2023-04-13 12:00:07FORECAST2023204-8136.84223.14429.993178.721369888620.220472560.840472566.27.04047256TT4.8423.842111456.2318412581881.5383796564710.23260435965571161113124.5WETL
2023-04-13 08:00:05FORECAST2023204-8138.42621.61430.02179.447446103830.220472560.990472566.087.07047256TT6.426-3.574111456.4928696620381.9164796254580.28868407383701162114128WETL
2023-04-13 04:00:12FORECAST2023204-8137.27422.11829.696181.142625067890.133858341.013858346.197.20385834TT5.274-5.726111457.1004251285282.800370927430.24727343287181161114126WETL
2023-04-13 00:00:04FORECAST2023204-8130.07421.18225.628179.0146750982900.266.416.67TT-1.926-11.926111456.3373440566381.6910813815120.070712774571019161112123WETL
2023-04-12 20:00:07FORECAST2023204-8129.55221.3825.466178.3688230997800.276.26.47TF-2.448-14.448111456.104925019681.3548986857580.063295628464521161112123WETL
2023-04-12 16:00:04FORECAST2023204-8136.24832.73834.493180.164457351590.216535550.676535556.176.84653555TT4.2482.248111456.7501671722382.2901460138320.21324736208783161113124.5WETL
2023-04-12 12:00:06FORECAST2023204-8132.73830.93831.838178.737932074820.027559070.507559076.086.58755907TT0.7386.738111456.2378008222681.5470010533360.1192135785556161113124.5WETL
2023-04-12 08:00:06FORECAST2023204-8138.04838.04838.048177.669908503950.015748040.695748045.846.53574804TT6.04818.048111455.8529807298980.9913573775330.27474311185591162113126WETL
2023-04-12 04:00:11FORECAST2023204-8138.01238.01238.012176.028626995970.019685050.209685056.346.54968505TF6.01231.012111455.2595712394280.1387172520490.27343289328703162112124WETL