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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, April 21, 2023

[ Thursday, April 20, 2023 | Index | Today | Saturday, April 22, 2023 ]

DAY 203 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/22/2023 04:00:09 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.79°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.65°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.22°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.120
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -4

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.41 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.24 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.71 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.95 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 176 in
SWE DAY: 110
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 454.65 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 79.95 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -82

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-04-22 04:00:09OBSERVATION2023203-8230.7900423.6499827.22001175.852666666670.410000000000081.24000000000015.716.9500000000001TT-1.20996-4.20996110454.6524978163 79.9518541476570.1199736070801316 1114126WETL
2023-04-22 00:00:03FORECAST2023203-8131.11820.35425.736173.06220510630.015748040.845748045.716.55574804TT-0.882-3.882111454.1807575751878.6015234228090.12703885759271161113124.5WETL
2023-04-21 12:00:02FORECAST2023203-8130.99221.16426.078173.104223615710.027559070.857559075.716.56755907TT-1.008-4.008111454.1960954822678.6232624777420.12429102883957161113124.5WETL
2023-04-21 08:00:02FORECAST2023203-8130.3820.55225.466173.108187332030.031496080.861496085.716.57149608TT-1.62-4.62111454.1975422628278.6253132317790.11153471170008161113124.5WETL
2023-04-21 04:00:12FORECAST2023203-8129.5719.92224.746172.6636966666700.835.716.54TT-2.43-5.43111454.0352096641278.3953977174330.096126937147638161113124.5WETL
2023-04-21 00:00:03FORECAST2023203-8229.22820.46224.845176.503916289330.007874020.887874025.716.59787402TT-2.772-7.772110454.8892582404780.2897355573930.090112267524506161113124.5WETL
2023-04-20 20:00:01FORECAST2023203-8230.45221.5626.006172.033705530340.007874020.827874025.716.53787402TT-1.548-5.548110453.2562127946977.975345841720.11298503178718161113124.5WETL
2023-04-20 16:00:02FORECAST2023203-8230.95621.12826.042172.033942060380.007874020.827874025.716.53787402TT-1.044-5.044110453.2562996946777.9754680001750.12351360419954161113124.5WETL
2023-04-20 12:00:03FORECAST2023203-8230.4720.91225.691174.2132979810200.825.716.53TT-1.53-5.53110454.0547721239179.1023793157260.11334969898788161113124.5WETL
2023-04-20 08:00:03FORECAST2023203-8232.01821.84826.933174.287930962820.011811030.871811035.716.58181103TT0.018000000000001-2.982110454.0820379590879.1410188832680.1478910245714161113124.5WETL
2023-04-20 04:00:09FORECAST2023203-8230.86621.54226.204174.598123247690.007874020.877874025.716.58787402TT-1.134-5.134110454.1953058365179.3016479869680.12158491759652161113124.5WETL
2023-04-20 00:00:05FORECAST2023203-8231.6421.18226.411176.049599433410.019685051.049685055.716.75968505TT-0.36-4.36110454.7241336207880.0540015766420.13887020618191161114126WETL
2023-04-19 20:00:03FORECAST2023203-8230.3820.89425.637172.718670306510.043307111.043307115.716.75330711TT-1.62-8.62110453.507646791878.3292377277140.11153471170008161114126WETL
2023-04-19 16:00:06FORECAST2023203-8231.31621.48826.402172.706630463990.059055151.069055155.716.77905515TT-0.684-6.684110453.5032310328578.3230149362140.13144151834257161114126WETL
2023-04-19 12:00:04FORECAST2023203-8232.10822.58627.347174.312216926490.11811031.07811035.716.7881103TT0.108-6.892110454.0909092902779.1535930845550.15009524311655161114126WETL
2023-04-19 08:00:06FORECAST2023203-8231.7322.31627.023174.685330105590.145669371.155669375.716.86566937TT-0.27-7.27110454.2271336798779.3468167897850.14098336246845161114126WETL
2023-04-19 04:00:08FORECAST2023203-8232.41423.34227.878174.414463116120.137795351.157795355.716.86779535TT0.414-4.586110454.1282524271179.2065353329350.15775221450248161114126WETL
2023-04-19 00:00:05FORECAST2023203-8232.43223.79228.112180.9631399960.917323331.817323335.947.75732333TT0.432-6.568110456.4999203973182.6096590030210.15821045623854161115127.5WETL
2023-04-18 20:00:04FORECAST2023203-8233.4424.51228.976176.987952002911.389764532.369764535.938.29976453TT1.44-5.56110455.0649748592380.541017928590.18525858773179161115127.5WETL
2023-04-18 16:00:03FORECAST2023203-8233.67424.4429.057175.780343312371.251969182.131969185.938.06196918TT1.674-3.326110454.626180643979.9143461123760.1919252145426161115127.5WETL
2023-04-18 12:00:06FORECAST2023203-8233.81824.76429.291176.722334911571.149606921.709606925.937.63960692TT1.818-3.182110454.9685762076180.4031090988010.19609964461598161115127.5WETL
2023-04-18 08:00:03FORECAST2023203-8235.67225.86230.767176.724928275131.1811031.7911036.047.831103TT3.672-0.328110454.969517714380.4044553854290.254587555021351621151210WETL
2023-04-18 04:00:12FORECAST2023203-8233.81824.65629.237176.644365387111.090551771.640551775.927.56055177TT1.818-3.182110454.9402668948280.3626347346750.19609964461598161115127.5WETL
2023-04-18 00:00:07FORECAST2023203-8236.06822.06429.066172.126797328670.283464720.783464726.056.83346472TT4.068-4.932110453.2904102331778.0234265732350.26816628339104162113126WETL
2023-04-17 20:00:06FORECAST2023203-8235.49222.92829.21170.543147671840.531496350.941496356.17.04149635TT3.492-3.508110452.7075509970377.2061707218420.24853647678065161113124.5WETL
2023-04-17 16:00:05FORECAST2023203-8236.64421.09228.868169.949450983890.401575020.841575026.086.92157502TT4.644-2.356110452.4884371265776.9001614662190.2885460922499162113126WETL
2023-04-17 12:00:07FORECAST2023203-8237.77824.54831.163171.859761474510.456693160.966693166.217.17669316TT5.778-1.222110453.1922924605977.8855192843640.33066468878548162113126WETL
2023-04-17 08:00:06FORECAST2023203-8237.7623.55830.659172.369203773240.492126251.062126256.247.30212625TT5.760.76110453.3794207410578.1486497603050.32997716710566162114128WETL
2023-04-17 04:00:16FORECAST2023203-8240.26225.37632.819171.012030104830.03937010.73937016.146.8793701TT8.2623.262110452.8803666676177.4479908984490.43006835579496162113126WETL
2023-04-17 00:00:08FORECAST2023203-8235.29421.72228.508177.840524673070.212598541.272598546.227.49259854TT3.294-8.706110455.3739543720680.9839429679760.24196970443281161114126WETL
2023-04-16 20:00:06FORECAST2023203-8235.22221.21828.22173.640730645850.165354421.305354426.37.60535442TT3.222-6.778110453.8454227900878.8060508135450.23960529522472161114126WETL
2023-04-16 16:00:06FORECAST2023203-8235.25820.42627.842171.90686234850.133858341.163858346.17.26385834TT3.258-5.742110453.2096037081677.9098409596750.2407859231471161114126WETL
2023-04-16 12:00:06FORECAST2023203-8236.9525.05231.001174.686215653410.149606381.169606386.177.33960638TT4.95-6.05110454.2274568416679.3472754815430.29966138831667162114128WETL
2023-04-16 08:00:05FORECAST2023203-8236.28424.76430.524175.521485245090.141732361.171732366.237.40173236TT4.284-10.716110454.5319472047979.7801224647270.27572329731704162114128WETL
2023-04-16 04:00:09FORECAST2023203-8235.36623.88229.624176.562866682120.141732361.241732366.287.52173236TT3.366-10.634110454.9106702074680.3203320161140.24434669248417161114126WETL
2023-04-16 00:00:07FORECAST2023203-8236.89623.95430.425177.139548991610.082677211.002677216.257.25267721TT4.896-11.104110455.1199638052480.6197451255370.29768583389776162114128WETL
2023-04-15 20:00:05FORECAST2023203-8237.07622.51429.795176.682205190290.082677211.022677216.147.16267721TT5.076-8.924110454.9540065376680.3822771352340.30429392693792162114128WETL
2023-04-15 16:00:06FORECAST2023203-8236.73424.60230.668177.383477653940.086614221.036614226.337.36661422TT4.734-8.266110455.2083998896780.7464490297150.29179510217654162114128WETL
2023-04-15 12:00:04FORECAST2023203-8236.26622.22629.246177.182617530610.326771831.196771836.037.22677183TT4.266-10.734110455.1355822429480.6421137931230.27508957431299162114128WETL
2023-04-15 08:00:05FORECAST2023203-8234.41221.03827.725177.792425522840.417323061.317323065.977.28732306TT2.412-12.588110455.3565406388880.9589438378760.21389189305059161114126WETL
2023-04-15 04:00:10FORECAST2023203-8236.73421.0228.877175.489436846040.244094620.814094626.16.91409462TT4.734-10.266110454.5202761496979.7635072966180.29179510217654162113126WETL
2023-04-15 00:00:05FORECAST2023203-8240.13620.330.218174.1403070538400.256.056.3TF8.136-6.864110454.0281011843879.0645929513220.42485686954598162112124WETL
2023-04-14 20:00:04FORECAST2023203-8239.86621.0230.443174.3144118609900.246.16.34TF7.866-10.134110454.0917110429379.15472954140.41373463813096162112124WETL
2023-04-14 16:00:04FORECAST2023203-8238.80419.54429.174174.148718365560.007874020.247874026.086.32787402TF6.804-6.196110454.0311749360879.0689472131280.37073386560613162112124WETL
2023-04-14 12:00:07FORECAST2023203-8234.14218.35626.249177.44152258040.031496080.631496086.176.80149608TT2.142-11.858110455.2294359484480.7766042381070.20569089629323161113124.5WETL
2023-04-14 08:00:06FORECAST2023203-8234.55619.5827.068176.804404418850.023622060.543622066.196.73362206TT2.556-8.444110454.9983680936380.4457154823430.2183423434343161113124.5WETL
2023-04-14 04:00:11FORECAST2023203-8234.55618.66226.609175.864134611750.023622060.523622066.176.69362206TT2.556-3.444110454.6566703519379.9578018769020.2183423434343161113124.5WETL
2023-04-14 00:00:05FORECAST2023203-8234.4320.60627.518174.623211831560.094488240.274488246.116.38448824TF2.43-9.57110454.2044631268179.3146421794320.2144452993361161112123WETL
2023-04-13 20:00:03FORECAST2023203-8233.36820.13826.753174.784433421980.094488240.284488246.126.40448824TF1.368-16.632110454.2632948105179.3981526078590.18323653361662161112123WETL
2023-04-13 16:00:04FORECAST2023203-8231.33424.3527.842178.562112129610.200787510.880787516.147.02078751TT-0.666-14.666110455.6349414434181.3591375041870.13184690536925161113124.5WETL
2023-04-13 12:00:06FORECAST2023203-8231.85625.77228.814177.121840813320.397638010.747638016.096.83763801TT-0.144-6.144110455.1135415980.6105482654870.14397814538148161113124.5WETL
2023-04-13 08:00:05FORECAST2023203-8231.31625.03428.175177.970325027530.381889970.861889976.016.87188997TT-0.684-14.684110455.4209364521681.0514120847340.13144151834257161113124.5WETL
2023-04-13 04:00:11FORECAST2023203-8231.47825.82628.652179.98614635010.574803460.974803466.127.09480346TT-0.522-15.522110456.1485913274282.1004271160480.13512095977768161113124.5WETL
2023-04-13 00:00:04FORECAST2023203-8233.823.12628.463179.014675098290.098425250.508425256.186.68842525TT1.8-15.2110455.798382585881.5945993689210.19557485602468161113124.5WETL
2023-04-12 20:00:06FORECAST2023203-8234.66423.86429.264178.368823099780.098425250.508425255.986.48842525TT2.664-17.336110455.5650786762481.2586069288370.22171483978941161113124.5WETL
2023-04-12 16:00:04FORECAST2023203-8237.426.38431.892178.663392578990.259842660.639842666.016.64984266TT5.4-6.6110455.6715347557781.4118223011430.31634975915185162113126WETL
2023-04-12 12:00:06FORECAST2023203-8240.94623.1832.063178.513507963890.181102460.721102465.866.58110246TT8.9460.946110455.6173770860581.3338562729380.45854916374308162113126WETL
2023-04-12 08:00:06FORECAST2023203-8251.20623.30637.256177.580605929080.334645850.974645855.576.54464585TT19.2067.206110455.2798285202980.848867815920.83589242151747164113129WETL
2023-04-12 04:00:11FORECAST2023203-8251.20630.07440.64176.061492595970.133858340.523858346.036.55385834TT19.20620.206110454.7284587026380.060171165050.83589242151747164113129WETL
2023-04-12 00:00:07FORECAST2023203-8233.0833.0833.08186.9397026727100.476.87.27TT1.08-0.92110458.6302294945685.7361987384280.17528640784938161112123WETL
2023-04-11 20:00:11FORECAST2023203-8231.89231.89231.892180.9112301122300.476.617.08TT-0.108-1.108110456.4812754114582.5825890578830.14484159917189161112123WETL
2023-04-11 16:00:05FORECAST2023203-8229.1229.1229.12184.4152045335600.66.667.26TT-2.88-11.88110457.7343310707484.4131702864430.088272038087766161113124.5WETL
2023-04-11 12:00:10FORECAST2023203-8223.88223.88223.882185.78317633720.031496081.451496085.446.89149608TT-8.118-11.118110458.2205123417685.129662245710.02835183648936161114126WETL
2023-04-11 08:00:04FORECAST2023203-8223.88223.88223.882186.379115550040.031496081.441496085.587.02149608TT-8.118-8.118110458.4317832317485.4421102987590.02835183648936161114126WETL
2023-04-11 04:00:16FORECAST2023203-8225.23225.23225.232179.4343099784500.426.066.48TF-6.768-9.768110455.9497641145581.8130313087290.038982445745608161112123WETL