MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, April 20, 2023

[ Wednesday, April 19, 2023 | Index | Today | Friday, April 21, 2023 ]

DAY 202 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/21/2023 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 28.68°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 15.67°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 22.18°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.097
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -10

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.62 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.32 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.31 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.63 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 173 in
SWE DAY: 109
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 452.94 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 78.21 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -83

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-04-21 04:00:11OBSERVATION2023202-8328.6800815.6700422.17506172.663696666670.621.325.316.63TT-3.31992-10.31992109452.93767189687 78.2058927893070.09658074216761216 1114126WETL
2023-04-21 00:00:02FORECAST2023202-8226.67214.43220.552176.467372398540.673228711.373228715.316.68322871TT-5.328-12.328110454.875983155380.2707695146190.067541332385309161114126WETL
2023-04-20 12:00:02FORECAST2023202-8227.5914.5421.065174.213297981020.610236551.310236555.316.62023655TT-4.41-11.41110454.0547721239179.1023793157260.079851652406467161114126WETL
2023-04-20 08:00:02FORECAST2023202-8228.83214.57621.704174.252668122220.653543661.353543665.316.66354366TT-3.168-10.168110454.0691559503179.1227619363440.099102309337756161114126WETL
2023-04-20 04:00:09FORECAST2023202-8228.34614.2721.308174.562525474040.657480671.357480675.316.66748067TT-3.654-10.654110454.1823117084479.2832113574660.091201535814234161114126WETL
2023-04-20 00:00:04FORECAST2023202-8329.01213.5521.281175.957049564830.637795621.517795625.316.82779562TT-2.988-10.988109454.1452408703279.910056657450.10215165745877161115127.5WETL
2023-04-19 20:00:02FORECAST2023202-8326.83413.38820.111172.554632681440.653543661.493543665.316.80354366TT-5.166-14.166109452.8975085042478.1495632222880.069600484148836161114126WETL
2023-04-19 16:00:03FORECAST2023202-8328.3114.88221.596172.464621999570.657480671.497480675.316.80748067TT-3.69-12.69109452.8643532105378.1030794935330.090635365278601161114126WETL
2023-04-19 12:00:04FORECAST2023202-8327.33814.2720.804173.855761844310.610236551.450236555.316.76023655TT-4.662-13.662109453.3759316109278.8220179920890.076315243295306161114126WETL
2023-04-19 08:00:05FORECAST2023202-8327.42814.4520.939174.100298350990.602362531.502362535.316.81236253TT-4.572-13.572109453.4656709219478.948508599440.077564355008271161115127.5WETL
2023-04-19 04:00:08FORECAST2023202-8328.3115.63821.974173.895413297380.618110571.508110575.316.81811057TT-3.69-11.69109453.3904865748278.8425260480270.090635365278601161115127.5WETL
2023-04-19 00:00:04FORECAST2023202-8328.20215.31421.758177.091756683850.456693161.616693165.316.92669316TT-3.798-13.798109454.558968024280.4986461638050.08895245836731161115127.5WETL
2023-04-18 20:00:03FORECAST2023202-8328.414.34221.371171.295839623620.476378211.686378215.316.99637821TT-3.6-13.6109452.4331450879577.4999154613950.092055686063296161115127.5WETL
2023-04-18 16:00:02FORECAST2023202-8329.01214.82821.92170.659470779240.405512031.585512035.316.89551203TT-2.988-11.988109452.1978256979177.171841621130.10215165745877161115127.5WETL
2023-04-18 12:00:05FORECAST2023202-8330.41614.43222.424172.870991310760.149606381.269606385.316.57960638TT-1.584-11.584109453.0139785883878.3129755562020.12829066812359161114126WETL
2023-04-18 08:00:03FORECAST2023202-8331.24415.27823.261173.470580435020.173228441.433228445.316.74322844TT-0.756-10.756109453.2344657396678.6228458450160.1457138247136161114126WETL
2023-04-18 04:00:11FORECAST2023202-8330.32614.2722.298172.263895060180.137795351.247795355.316.55779535TT-1.674-11.674109452.7903884506377.9994359603160.12648764935721161114126WETL
2023-04-18 00:00:06FORECAST2023202-8331.0114.46822.739171.079538053690.114173291.234173295.416.64417329TT-0.99-15.99109452.3532027684777.3883769667360.14063648579351161114126WETL
2023-04-17 20:00:06FORECAST2023202-8331.35214.48622.919168.254255096750.062992161.052992165.556.60299216TT-0.648-13.648109451.304970445275.933981623720.14809815568384161114126WETL
2023-04-17 16:00:05FORECAST2023202-8330.03814.03622.037168.19915383690.090551231.060551235.556.61055123TT-1.962-13.962109451.2844519795175.9056629627020.12083656215435161114126WETL
2023-04-17 12:00:06FORECAST2023202-8330.70416.7923.747170.499898579170.110236281.260236285.556.81023628TT-1.296-14.296109452.1387586864677.0896124997560.13417955050075161114126WETL
2023-04-17 08:00:05FORECAST2023202-8331.17215.63823.405170.801898342710.177165451.317165455.586.89716545TT-0.828-11.828109452.2505262591277.2452484115470.14413864538792161114126WETL
2023-04-17 04:00:16FORECAST2023202-8330.34416.53823.441171.165362262910.338582861.368582865.566.92858286TT-1.656-11.656109452.3849275649477.4326300089330.12684683777421161114126WETL
2023-04-17 00:00:07FORECAST2023202-8328.7616.73622.748176.854141888890.74803191.70803195.667.3680319TT-3.24-19.24109454.4724296392780.3753315560130.097901334599265161115127.5WETL
2023-04-16 20:00:06FORECAST2023202-8328.72417.22222.973172.833701251460.771653961.851653965.687.53165396TT-3.276-17.276109453.0002548052978.2937107058520.097304849591615161115127.5WETL
2023-04-16 16:00:05FORECAST2023202-8328.25614.0921.173171.260142337740.712598811.572598815.657.22259881TT-3.744-15.744109452.4199548493377.4815058639290.089790990880921161115127.5WETL
2023-04-16 12:00:06FORECAST2023202-8327.17616.46621.821174.078894682250.700787781.580787785.77.28078778TT-4.824-17.824109453.4578184901878.9374358277920.074105371086344161115127.5WETL
2023-04-16 08:00:05FORECAST2023202-8327.08616.64621.866174.909432142570.685039741.615039745.737.34503974TT-4.914-21.914109453.7622075052579.3672900425050.072898897893039161115127.5WETL
2023-04-16 04:00:08FORECAST2023202-8327.5916.37621.983175.885325733650.736220871.636220875.837.46622087TT-4.41-21.41109454.1190494537779.8728769350310.079851652406467161115127.5WETL
2023-04-16 00:00:06FORECAST2023202-8328.50816.39422.451176.826117193230.507874291.377874295.887.25787429TT-3.492-23.492109454.462219710380.3607897223890.093781670285792161114126WETL
2023-04-15 20:00:05FORECAST2023202-8328.56216.1622.361176.363443732670.527559341.407559345.767.16755934TT-3.438-21.438109454.2935538928580.1207756300970.094653538557412161114126WETL
2023-04-15 16:00:05FORECAST2023202-8329.0317.45623.243177.015113695320.562992431.522992435.857.37299243TT-2.97-19.97109454.531060651880.4588673793340.10246029382983161115127.5WETL
2023-04-15 12:00:04FORECAST2023202-8328.4916.89822.694175.375319563920.582677481.252677485.746.99267748TT-3.51-21.51109453.9326726655879.608587529230.093492364616167161114126WETL
2023-04-15 08:00:05FORECAST2023202-8328.77817.623.189175.357947431070.523622331.163622335.86.96362233TT-3.222-22.222109453.926319935879.599587748880.098200576808382161114126WETL
2023-04-15 04:00:09FORECAST2023202-8329.7516.84423.297174.179329595920.31496080.85496085.916.7649608TT-2.25-22.25109453.4946616671478.9893961445120.11536502112052161113124.5WETL
2023-04-15 00:00:05FORECAST2023202-8332.23415.83624.035174.4050030538400.545.856.39TF0.234-21.766109453.5774126162179.1061700324840.16854055971204161113124.5WETL
2023-04-14 20:00:04FORECAST2023202-8332.05417.52824.791174.5867830609900.565.876.43TF0.054000000000002-24.946109453.6440340356279.2002525570890.16422815909296161113124.5WETL
2023-04-14 16:00:04FORECAST2023202-8332.88217.81625.349174.3497495655600.575.846.41TF0.882-20.118109453.5571564057979.0775766330190.18465985929143161113124.5WETL
2023-04-14 12:00:07FORECAST2023202-8332.66618.6825.673177.295659924310.366141930.916141935.946.85614193TT0.666-21.334109454.6331871632880.6044909416080.17918360130027161113124.5WETL
2023-04-14 08:00:05FORECAST2023202-8333.11617.81625.466176.72517186710.318897810.838897815.966.79889781TT1.116-17.884109454.4254373862780.3084135228720.19070828132517161113124.5WETL
2023-04-14 04:00:10FORECAST2023202-8333.4417.70825.574175.789051565950.106299270.866299275.896.75629927TT1.44-12.56109454.0838854804979.8229755599990.19928063790754161113124.5WETL
2023-04-14 00:00:05FORECAST2023202-8331.17216.08823.63174.352706820.066929170.416929175.966.37692917TF-0.828-18.828109453.5582406223579.0791069530220.14413864538792161112123WETL
2023-04-13 20:00:03FORECAST2023202-8330.18216.35823.27174.318617246920.066929170.436929175.966.39692917TF-1.818-24.818109453.5457418868979.0614665839530.12363956748735161112123WETL
2023-04-13 16:00:04FORECAST2023202-8330.99220.6625.826177.276818136550.500000270.960000275.956.91000027TT-1.008-21.008109454.6263305158980.5947093149510.14025094243388161113124.5WETL
2023-04-13 12:00:06FORECAST2023202-8333.13419.59826.366174.642651571080.224409570.594409575.946.53440957TT1.134-12.866109453.6645033725879.2291717926660.19117851600547161113124.5WETL
2023-04-13 08:00:05FORECAST2023202-8331.92820.33626.132175.552076237580.3937010.7137015.876.583701TT-0.071999999999999-21.072109453.9972940104179.7001675697690.16125233030182161113124.5WETL
2023-04-13 04:00:11FORECAST2023202-8332.59421.5627.077176.306396383860.311023790.681023795.936.61102379TT0.594-22.406109454.2727437729680.0911904300190.17738106471311161113124.5WETL
2023-04-13 00:00:04FORECAST2023202-8330.81216.50223.657178.235393251380.161417410.871417415.816.68141741TT-1.188-24.188109454.9747461643281.0926028020440.13643488181071161113124.5WETL
2023-04-12 20:00:06FORECAST2023202-8331.0117.6924.35177.644989937120.169291430.839291435.646.47929143TT-0.99-26.99109454.7602511729280.7858802434150.14063648579351161113124.5WETL
2023-04-12 16:00:04FORECAST2023202-8334.66421.23627.95177.206207761060.19685050.78685055.696.4768505TT2.664-19.336109454.6006320281480.5580540474870.23369412215658161113124.5WETL
2023-04-12 12:00:05FORECAST2023202-8332.32422.96427.644177.328097329960.299212761.079212765.416.48921276TT0.324-14.676109454.6449905744880.6213311391710.17072374554589161114126WETL
2023-04-12 08:00:06FORECAST2023202-8333.6222.3727.995176.708696323480.35433090.98433095.326.3043309TT1.62-19.38109454.4194331542580.2998656167410.20414151999986161113124.5WETL
2023-04-12 04:00:10FORECAST2023202-8339.224.33231.766176.909602195970.062992160.982992165.536.51299216TT7.2-5.8109454.4926327404680.4041108591130.38531493863773162113126WETL
2023-04-12 00:00:07FORECAST2023202-8339.68622.51431.1186.945606672710.094488241.054488246.317.36448824TT7.686-9.314109458.102094011585.6401738830170.40325617881521162114128WETL
2023-04-11 20:00:10FORECAST2023202-8339.90221.48830.695180.911230112230.094488241.004488246.177.17448824TT7.902-8.098109455.9428619202782.4851840108850.4112983747474162114128WETL
2023-04-11 16:00:04FORECAST2023202-8338.10222.42430.263184.415204533560.421260071.021260076.337.35126007TT6.102-15.898109457.2006882495984.3147584364340.34572570157849162114128WETL
2023-04-11 12:00:10FORECAST2023202-8332.93624.1728.553185.417109689671.232284131.622284135.336.95228413TT0.936-10.064109457.5582901463684.8391356734870.18604497928526161115127.5WETL
2023-04-11 08:00:04FORECAST2023202-8332.77424.5328.652186.013048902521.228347121.608347125.477.07834712TT0.774-7.226109457.7705626742685.151298060860.18190887241838161115127.5WETL
2023-04-11 04:00:16FORECAST2023202-8333.6222.44228.031179.434309978450.417323060.827323065.746.56732306TT1.62-10.38109455.4093270380681.7160583548240.20414151999986161113124.5WETL
2023-04-11 00:00:06FORECAST2023202-8325.66425.66425.664189.530757345260.007874020.517874026.136.64787402TT-6.336-23.336109459.017039401886.9978471122040.055766246631657161113124.5WETL
2023-04-10 20:00:06FORECAST2023202-8327.527.527.5183.068847080010.007874020.507874026.657.15787402TT-4.5-14.5109456.7187084141483.6109673892480.078574735031561161113124.5WETL
2023-04-10 16:00:05FORECAST2023202-8326.90626.90626.906182.7427006714400.726.57.22TT-5.094-10.094109456.6017036979283.4406284649360.070530981044595161113124.5WETL
2023-04-10 12:00:06FORECAST2023202-8324.04424.04424.044185.5510724789600.586.577.15TT-7.956-9.956109457.6060354627984.9092906529630.040290937635508161113124.5WETL
2023-04-10 08:00:07FORECAST2023202-8324.04424.04424.044184.7311523781800.526.557.07TT-7.956-3.956109457.3135552117384.4800600524240.040290937635508161113124.5WETL
2023-04-10 04:00:18FORECAST2023202-8319.59819.59819.598188.2101708552400.776.587.35TT-12.402-18.402109458.5504035412986.3038497962450.014776148033459161113124.5WETL