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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, April 19, 2023

[ Tuesday, April 18, 2023 | Index | Today | Thursday, April 20, 2023 ]

DAY 201 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/20/2023 04:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 28.41°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 21.11°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 24.76°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.105
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -15

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.21 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.81 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.97 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.78 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 172 in
SWE DAY: 108
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 452.24 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 77.90 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -84

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-04-20 04:00:08OBSERVATION2023201-8428.4100821.1124.76004172.258513750.209999999999920.809999999999925.976.7799999999999TT-3.58992-14.58992108452.23593190725 77.9014894946890.1045365707078216 1113124.5WETL
2023-04-20 00:00:02FORECAST2023201-8326.81617.09621.956173.605447196370.385826980.985826985.976.95582698TT-5.184-16.184109453.2840141055878.6925739757670.079006521786368161113124.5WETL
2023-04-19 12:00:02FORECAST2023201-8325.53816.62821.083171.526368244930.346456880.946456885.976.91645688TT-6.462-17.462109452.5182972101377.6188200848320.062187043461881161113124.5WETL
2023-04-19 08:00:03FORECAST2023201-8325.62817.76221.695171.73090438030.405512031.005512035.976.97551203TT-6.372-17.372109452.5938065556277.7243437167180.063272043255147161114126WETL
2023-04-19 04:00:07FORECAST2023201-8327.30218.8623.081171.575397383140.397638010.997638015.976.96763801TT-4.698-15.698109452.5364010494177.6441128403890.086234291361405161114126WETL
2023-04-19 00:00:03FORECAST2023201-8427.39218.06822.73175.22389048180.440945121.270945125.977.24094512TT-4.608-17.608108453.3289604123379.4340641115190.087625213757695161114126WETL
2023-04-18 20:00:02FORECAST2023201-8426.92418.12222.523169.284602179060.500000271.320000275.977.29000027TT-5.076-18.076108451.1314578804276.3696093777480.080571799508012161114126WETL
2023-04-18 16:00:01FORECAST2023201-8427.64418.57223.108169.06396926660.468504191.288504195.977.25850419TT-4.356-17.356108451.0491846231976.2561654868610.09160846798747161114126WETL
2023-04-18 12:00:04FORECAST2023201-8426.617.49222.046172.216206936770.405512031.225512035.977.19551203TT-5.4-18.4108452.2202781065877.8796609954060.075944986288631161114126WETL
2023-04-18 08:00:02FORECAST2023201-8428.09419.09423.594172.751592482240.437008111.367008115.977.33700811TT-3.906-17.906108452.4182503030578.155973207880.099051318790646161114126WETL
2023-04-18 04:00:11FORECAST2023201-8426.617.49222.046171.666808588280.405512031.215512035.977.18551203TT-5.4-18.4108452.0168442520177.5962890808880.075944986288631161114126WETL
2023-04-18 00:00:05FORECAST2023201-8426.22217.67221.947170.56582712180.389763991.329763995.977.29976399TT-5.778-22.778108451.6083120766777.0289452844390.070805131174144161114126WETL
2023-04-17 20:00:05FORECAST2023201-8426.49217.11421.803167.987334945890.35433091.34433095.977.3143309TT-5.508-20.508108450.6470492690875.702996807940.074448385599221161114126WETL
2023-04-17 16:00:04FORECAST2023201-8426.81616.95221.884167.753660172250.346456881.316456885.977.28645688TT-5.184-20.184108450.559623704875.5830260023110.079006521786368161114126WETL
2023-04-17 12:00:06FORECAST2023201-8426.2417.36621.803169.988706382310.397638011.497638015.977.46763801TT-5.76-20.76108451.3937077858476.7318324556270.071043686805082161114126WETL
2023-04-17 08:00:05FORECAST2023201-8426.88816.44821.668170.013340151170.3937011.5237015.977.493701TT-5.112-19.112108451.402874364576.7445104245470.080047467267641161115127.5WETL
2023-04-17 04:00:15FORECAST2023201-8427.24817.8722.559169.647226489520.362204921.392204925.977.36220492TT-4.752-17.752108451.2665791202176.5561235551560.085407675751905161114126WETL
2023-04-17 00:00:07FORECAST2023201-8426.11416.44821.281173.132751019890.311023791.291023796.17.39102379TT-5.886-23.886108452.5590292368778.3527897306710.069386658287117161114126WETL
2023-04-16 20:00:05FORECAST2023201-8426.56416.9721.767168.9847933960.370078941.420078946.117.53007894TT-5.436-22.436108451.0196489688576.2154621985350.07544360349382161114126WETL
2023-04-16 16:00:05FORECAST2023201-8427.7717.1522.46167.840470121030.322834821.172834826.117.28283482TT-4.23-20.23108450.5921082740175.6275912855350.093649539759024161114126WETL
2023-04-16 12:00:05FORECAST2023201-8427.15818.28422.721170.56932796410.322834821.242834826.117.35283482TT-4.842-20.842108451.6096129169777.0307481773740.084043149747112161114126WETL
2023-04-16 08:00:04FORECAST2023201-8425.73616.98821.362171.434822304860.342519871.312519876.127.43251987TT-6.264-25.264108451.9308579775677.4766863314670.064593366169913161114126WETL
2023-04-16 04:00:08FORECAST2023201-8425.84416.77221.308171.960085534780.362204921.332204926.177.50220492TT-6.156-25.156108452.1254755687977.7475354512640.065935949239832161114126WETL
2023-04-16 00:00:06FORECAST2023201-8425.50215.8920.696174.05059668910.409449041.309449046.217.51944904TT-6.498-28.498108452.8974720476478.8270752488780.061757115403532161114126WETL
2023-04-15 20:00:04FORECAST2023201-8425.46615.15220.309173.436736714840.413386051.273386056.147.41338605TT-6.534-25.534108452.6712071267478.5098169688270.06132950338931161114126WETL
2023-04-15 16:00:04FORECAST2023201-8426.16817.40221.785174.064449398790.385826981.355826986.227.57582698TT-5.832-24.832108452.902573999878.834237174570.070093143891761161114126WETL
2023-04-15 12:00:03FORECAST2023201-8425.66416.62821.146172.298373663990.287401730.997401736.187.17740173TT-6.336-26.336108452.2506788000777.9220564456880.063710133744922161114126WETL
2023-04-15 08:00:04FORECAST2023201-8426.04216.68221.362172.499438169620.381889971.011889976.27.21188997TT-5.958-26.958108452.3250434775578.0258158699240.068453196028292161114126WETL
2023-04-15 04:00:09FORECAST2023201-8427.30213.65820.48172.491345622010.259842660.969842666.257.21984266TT-4.698-27.698108452.3220511432478.0216392562050.086234291361405161113124.5WETL
2023-04-15 00:00:04FORECAST2023201-8427.28415.15221.218174.406282253840.248031630.938031636.227.15803163TT-4.716-29.716108453.0284141668279.0110014701890.085958092785836161113124.5WETL
2023-04-14 20:00:04FORECAST2023201-8427.01414.79220.903174.587078260990.23622061.00622066.197.1962206TT-4.986-32.986108453.094927092479.1045194959380.08189393648637161114126WETL
2023-04-14 16:00:04FORECAST2023201-8428.07616.35822.217174.358408765560.23622061.01622066.167.1762206TT-3.924-28.924108453.0107969049878.9862417019720.098745384725684161114126WETL
2023-04-14 12:00:07FORECAST2023201-8427.71616.86222.289174.755558223990.232283591.062283596.27.26228359TT-4.284-30.284108453.1568815885279.1916838050430.092770733953913161114126WETL
2023-04-14 08:00:05FORECAST2023201-8428.36417.47422.919174.539069503870.204724521.064724526.197.25472452TT-3.636-26.636108453.0772681603379.0796847980620.10372351849049161114126WETL
2023-04-14 04:00:10FORECAST2023201-8428.61617.94223.279175.138093148950.385826981.265826986.157.41582698TT-3.384-22.384108453.2974513027479.3896512504430.10822614062515161114126WETL
2023-04-14 00:00:05FORECAST2023201-8427.5914.30620.948173.952806361970.106299270.866299276.217.07629927TT-4.41-26.41108452.8614507688178.7765202543890.090743851304616161113124.5WETL
2023-04-13 20:00:03FORECAST2023201-8427.08613.89220.489173.892135578770.11811030.90811036.197.0981103TT-4.914-30.914108452.839098056578.7451578346070.082963325888358161113124.5WETL
2023-04-13 16:00:04FORECAST2023201-8428.45416.30422.379174.176768152920.181102461.021102466.167.18110246TT-3.546-27.546108452.9439343624978.8923106417290.10531578527482161114126WETL
2023-04-13 12:00:06FORECAST2023201-8430.50617.11423.81173.378788216120.125984320.755984326.327.07598432TT-1.494-22.494108452.6498294455878.4798789155110.14649377049646161113124.5WETL
2023-04-13 08:00:05FORECAST2023201-8428.23817.29422.766173.258184129520.094488240.704488246.266.96448824TT-3.762-28.762108452.6053275087578.4175771715130.10152369800552161113124.5WETL
2023-04-13 04:00:11FORECAST2023201-8428.25618.2323.243174.499105442020.094488240.754488246.327.07448824TT-3.744-30.744108453.0625666444679.0590125887240.10183586772473161113124.5WETL
2023-04-13 00:00:03FORECAST2023201-8427.03217.67222.352177.155451827480.251968641.271968646.027.29196864TT-4.968-30.968108454.036512801180.4350435714510.082160308240228161114126WETL
2023-04-12 20:00:06FORECAST2023201-8427.7717.622.685176.503681795280.240157611.160157615.927.08015761TT-4.23-34.23108453.7981501407480.097044291730.093649539759024161114126WETL
2023-04-12 16:00:03FORECAST2023201-8432.39618.30225.349176.04430023350.181102461.101102465.957.05110246TT0.396-29.604108453.6299097645179.8589600294780.19289895233463161114126WETL
2023-04-12 12:00:05FORECAST2023201-8431.2819.65225.466175.305462843430.23622061.23622065.726.9562206TT-0.72-22.72108453.3589115322379.4762938203490.16450895103353161114126WETL
2023-04-12 08:00:06FORECAST2023201-8431.3719.90425.637174.253445040380.291338741.121338745.66.72133874TT-0.63-28.63108452.9721631545278.9319599370660.16669297339311161114126WETL
2023-04-12 04:00:10FORECAST2023201-8432.30622.20827.257176.784114950580.330708841.480708845.747.22070884TT0.306-20.694108453.9007573713880.2424436672980.19050446987066161114126WETL
2023-04-12 00:00:07FORECAST2023201-8429.31821.16425.241186.46226990890.377952962.047952965.998.03795296TT-2.682-24.682108457.397465684485.2873697020920.12150390436492161115127.5WETL
2023-04-11 20:00:09FORECAST2023201-8429.15620.40824.782180.389875543840.381889971.841889976.017.85188997TT-2.844-23.844108455.213572457882.1159196815290.11834288483889161115127.5WETL
2023-04-11 16:00:04FORECAST2023201-8430.81219.16624.989180.540299155370.177165451.667165456.037.69716545TT-1.188-30.188108455.2680790999782.1942351965990.15345172967932161115127.5WETL
2023-04-11 12:00:09FORECAST2023201-8432.70218.6825.691174.179742901180.192913491.092913495.46.49291349TT0.702-19.298108452.9450296261878.8938488086520.20117643814051161114126WETL
2023-04-11 08:00:04FORECAST2023201-8431.5519.3125.43174.973899244780.181102461.061102465.566.62110246TT-0.45-16.45108453.2371318685979.3046682455680.17111673247175161114126WETL
2023-04-11 04:00:16FORECAST2023201-8434.28619.00426.645176.3324516410801.255.676.92TT2.286-19.714108453.7354630714480.008286599890.24730330178074161114126WETL
2023-04-11 00:00:05FORECAST2023201-8432.52217.63625.079189.432728261750.062992161.002992166.417.41299216TT0.522-25.478108458.4535631592986.8461092505850.19628188303306161114126WETL
2023-04-10 20:00:06FORECAST2023201-8432.91818.91425.916182.97801593620.062992161.002992166.927.92299216TT0.918-18.082108456.148499011683.4651473214160.20714531809541161114126WETL
2023-04-10 16:00:04FORECAST2023201-8434.08819.02226.555182.742700671440.074803191.204803196.797.99480319TT2.088-12.912108456.0637487048283.3423211166580.24124543111297161114126WETL
2023-04-10 12:00:06FORECAST2023201-8437.7623.30630.533185.551072478960.137795351.157795356.767.91779535TT5.76-10.24108457.0719041908784.8101820226140.36527786455675162114128WETL
2023-04-10 08:00:07FORECAST2023201-8439.75824.92632.342184.731152378180.129921331.059921336.787.83992133TT7.758-4.242108456.7783104004784.3811836616360.44051910326124162114128WETL
2023-04-10 04:00:17FORECAST2023201-8439.34420.44429.894188.210170855240.070866181.530866186.598.12086618TT7.344-13.656108458.0198676950586.2039975539790.424653314621241621151210WETL
2023-04-10 00:00:05FORECAST2023201-8425.75425.75425.754192.3351165409701.076.367.43TT-6.246-8.246108459.4777915486888.3737145855020.064815648480637161114126WETL
2023-04-09 20:00:06FORECAST2023201-8427.46427.46427.464186.2090748902801.16.747.84TT-4.536-17.536108457.3070772862885.1547278022560.088749910073682161114126WETL
2023-04-09 16:00:05FORECAST2023201-8423.5423.5423.54183.6714738489201.16.727.82TT-8.46-25.46108456.3979579487383.8272855980820.041630007554981161114126WETL
2023-04-09 12:00:06FORECAST2023201-8430.16430.16430.164181.1606075200400.766.297.05TT-1.836-0.836108455.4926306186682.5173216837790.13897093550174161113124.5WETL
2023-04-09 08:00:06FORECAST2023201-8430.16430.16430.164177.2707813500800.746.216.95TT-1.836-0.836108454.0786495656380.4948770028890.13897093550174161113124.5WETL
2023-04-09 04:00:16FORECAST2023201-8422.7322.7322.73182.4561820996800.956.036.98TT-9.27-8.27108455.9604887861483.1928099722210.035043066008103161113124.5WETL