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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, April 18, 2023

[ Monday, April 17, 2023 | Index | Today | Wednesday, April 19, 2023 ]

DAY 200 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/19/2023 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 26.76°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 17.83°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 22.30°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.067
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -21

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.49 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.16 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.35 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.51 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 170 in
SWE DAY: 107
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 450.80 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 76.59 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -85

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-04-19 04:00:06OBSERVATION2023200-8526.7600217.8300422.29503169.890108695650.490000000000011.166.357.51TT-5.23998-21.23998107450.79908969549 76.5863063482670.06691573289384616 1114126WETL
2023-04-19 00:00:02FORECAST2023200-8425.32217.16821.245173.221199051460.724409841.394409846.357.74440984TT-6.678-22.678108452.5916775812178.398473071330.049553953122499161114126WETL
2023-04-18 12:00:02FORECAST2023200-8424.83616.5220.678170.31217386260.712598811.382598816.357.73259881TT-7.164-23.164108451.5140290044976.8983358092170.044572369217769161114126WETL
2023-04-18 08:00:02FORECAST2023200-8424.40416.98820.696170.787192079010.818898081.488898086.357.83889808TT-7.596-23.596108451.690543943677.142959688770.040489477160975161114126WETL
2023-04-18 04:00:10FORECAST2023200-8424.816.48420.642169.780479542060.700787781.370787786.357.72078778TT-7.2-23.2108451.3162006735976.6246809754640.044219966805924161114126WETL
2023-04-18 00:00:04FORECAST2023200-8524.42215.36819.895168.627737720220.732283861.502283866.357.85228386TT-7.578-26.578107450.3266650679675.9375667655040.040653334321867161115127.5WETL
2023-04-17 20:00:03FORECAST2023200-8524.92615.3520.138166.19692351330.637795621.547795626.357.89779562TT-7.074-25.074107449.4126890729274.6910063117580.045463245931005161115127.5WETL
2023-04-17 16:00:02FORECAST2023200-8524.87215.74620.309166.032701544180.622047581.532047586.357.88204758TT-7.128-25.128107449.3507385616874.606917064270.044927023137411161115127.5WETL
2023-04-17 12:00:05FORECAST2023200-8524.56616.720.633168.049520402340.751968911.661968916.358.01196891TT-7.434-25.434107450.1097690092675.6407308104120.041983588881939161115127.5WETL
2023-04-17 08:00:05FORECAST2023200-8525.08816.14220.615168.084438426430.751968911.691968916.358.04196891TT-6.912-23.912107450.1228762068375.6586508701150.047102748622584161115127.5WETL
2023-04-17 04:00:15FORECAST2023200-8525.86217.02421.443167.943147569190.66929171.58929176.357.9392917TT-6.138-23.138107450.0698326157875.5861443154310.055597965879664161115127.5WETL
2023-04-17 00:00:07FORECAST2023200-8524.814.86419.832171.427197010580.649606651.669606656.358.01960665TT-7.2-28.2107451.3722820468577.377485119560.044219966805924161115127.5WETL
2023-04-16 20:00:05FORECAST2023200-8525.30415.96220.633167.082739264220.70866181.74866186.358.0986618TT-6.696-26.696107449.7464057985275.1448614550560.049361866464058161115127.5WETL
2023-04-16 16:00:04FORECAST2023200-8525.8816.01620.948166.180607716720.535433361.545433366.357.89543336TT-6.12-26.12107449.4065353159574.6826511506690.055809001703536161115127.5WETL
2023-04-16 12:00:05FORECAST2023200-8526.3316.6121.47168.943526756620.555118411.615118416.357.96511841TT-5.67-25.67107450.4449867931876.0997646786780.061292358069266161115127.5WETL
2023-04-16 08:00:04FORECAST2023200-8525.17815.69220.435169.570080658580.594488511.684488516.358.03448851TT-6.822-28.822107450.6794669875876.4217535682520.048033798529179161115127.5WETL
2023-04-16 04:00:08FORECAST2023200-8524.6215.51220.066169.983089906190.539370371.729370376.358.07937037TT-7.38-29.38107450.8338267499776.6341269051910.042491401668973161115127.5WETL
2023-04-16 00:00:05FORECAST2023200-8524.67415.7120.192171.68781518980.464567181.684567186.378.05456718TT-7.326-32.326107451.469246928577.5117686305390.043004154658219161115127.5WETL
2023-04-15 20:00:04FORECAST2023200-8524.67416.05220.363170.98699058040.47244121.53244126.417.9424412TT-7.326-29.326107451.2083542112277.150758611310.043004154658219161115127.5WETL
2023-04-15 16:00:04FORECAST2023200-8525.82617.25821.542171.878422851160.570866451.720866456.418.13086645TT-6.174-29.174107451.5401232613977.6100042401880.055177777954834161115127.5WETL
2023-04-15 12:00:03FORECAST2023200-8525.08815.33220.21170.554318034280.377952961.417952966.417.82795296TT-6.912-29.912107451.0470531958876.9280225591940.047102748622584161114126WETL
2023-04-15 08:00:04FORECAST2023200-8525.37614.46819.922170.276059069470.255905651.345905656.427.76590565TT-6.624-30.624107450.9432241098176.7848350654970.050133782426379161114126WETL
2023-04-15 04:00:09FORECAST2023200-8524.76414.10819.436170.921750562250.27559071.46559076.437.8955907TT-7.236-33.236107451.1840439763577.117166622190.043869806600009161114126WETL
2023-04-15 00:00:04FORECAST2023200-8524.2614.07219.166172.888189617910.287401731.357401736.497.84740173TT-7.74-34.74107451.915027278.1307709137370.03919777941699161114126WETL
2023-04-14 20:00:04FORECAST2023200-8524.69213.60419.148173.18902765090.318897811.418897816.487.89889781TT-7.308-38.308107452.0265358845378.2860362222480.043176175579212161114126WETL
2023-04-14 16:00:03FORECAST2023200-8526.65415.81821.236173.028676616780.326771831.386771836.497.87677183TT-5.346-35.346107451.9671107431978.2032710462050.065493674625688161114126WETL
2023-04-14 12:00:06FORECAST2023200-8525.2515.90820.579173.362515768390.318897811.498897816.477.96889781TT-6.75-35.75107452.0908022978978.3755988421140.048789159708625161114126WETL
2023-04-14 08:00:05FORECAST2023200-8525.86215.60220.732173.320199031110.322834821.502834826.497.99283482TT-6.138-33.138107452.0751292250478.3537513742980.055597965879664161115127.5WETL
2023-04-14 04:00:10FORECAST2023200-8526.9617.34822.154172.896768240820.366141931.516141936.457.96614193TT-5.04-29.04107451.9182081344378.1351976956270.069662736741602161115127.5WETL
2023-04-14 00:00:04FORECAST2023200-8525.44814.14419.796173.207942517940.244094621.514094626.47.91409462TT-6.552-31.552107452.0335440262278.2958001098740.050915259488236161115127.5WETL
2023-04-13 20:00:03FORECAST2023200-8525.01613.53219.274173.138847634050.248031631.538031636.387.91803163TT-6.984-35.984107452.0079420700778.260134211450.046368339770168161115127.5WETL
2023-04-13 16:00:04FORECAST2023200-8526.4215.65621.038173.139509182440.283464721.553464726.397.94346472TT-5.58-33.58107452.0081872170978.2604756812130.062437763374062161115127.5WETL
2023-04-13 12:00:06FORECAST2023200-8526.85216.5221.686172.679151297430.23622061.45622066.437.8862206TT-5.148-31.148107451.8374948266778.0229151310260.068168652590149161114126WETL
2023-04-13 08:00:05FORECAST2023200-8526.58216.44821.515172.638583840710.232283591.502283596.317.81228359TT-5.418-35.418107451.8224435749678.0019868062290.064541325609097161115127.5WETL
2023-04-13 04:00:10FORECAST2023200-8525.82616.98821.407173.861073286790.283464721.583464726.347.92346472TT-6.174-37.174107452.2753288871878.6330741014620.055177777954834161115127.5WETL
2023-04-13 00:00:03FORECAST2023200-8525.53819.25622.397175.282146520370.456693161.796693166.187.97669316TT-6.462-36.462107452.8000174176279.3677589974220.05190566292152161115127.5WETL
2023-04-12 20:00:05FORECAST2023200-8526.52818.33822.433174.727233138910.425197081.635197086.147.77519708TT-5.472-40.472107452.5953576977779.0807345820480.063834126429309161115127.5WETL
2023-04-12 16:00:03FORECAST2023200-8527.0518.64422.847174.690999797970.405512031.635512036.177.80551203TT-4.95-39.95107452.5819843058779.0619993289420.070926892101535161115127.5WETL
2023-04-12 12:00:05FORECAST2023200-8526.27619.54422.91173.856291797410.543307381.383307386.287.66330738TT-5.724-31.724107452.2735602672878.630604066080.06061300914924161114126WETL
2023-04-12 08:00:06FORECAST2023200-8525.4318.521.965172.430926860120.338582861.158582866.217.36858286TT-6.57-37.57107451.7453748301377.894873686730.05071898985229161114126WETL
2023-04-12 04:00:10FORECAST2023200-8527.69820.42624.062174.747605504190.59055151.59055156.247.8305515TT-4.302-31.302107452.6028764093379.0912688968390.080552671031419161115127.5WETL
2023-04-12 00:00:06FORECAST2023200-8528.07616.95222.514183.555528108370.578740472.338740476.268.59874047TT-3.924-31.924107455.817389771283.6678017004310.086604552248605161115127.5WETL
2023-04-11 20:00:08FORECAST2023200-8527.48217.0622.271177.442596651950.527559342.107559346.38.40755934TT-4.518-30.518107453.5940791431380.4869112291080.077240482121401161115127.5WETL
2023-04-11 16:00:04FORECAST2023200-8526.85214.4520.651178.990102067560.417323062.117323066.348.45732306TT-5.148-39.148107454.1601838834181.2901776683120.068168652590149161115127.5WETL
2023-04-11 12:00:09FORECAST2023200-8527.91416.93422.424172.543034406970.200787511.100787516.147.24078751TT-4.086-30.086107451.7869868979477.9526976249520.083970664809201161114126WETL
2023-04-11 08:00:04FORECAST2023200-8528.4918.39223.441173.429180255780.19685051.16685056.217.3768505TT-3.51-25.51107452.1154897580678.4100187696820.093614471097016161114126WETL
2023-04-11 04:00:16FORECAST2023200-8530.07418.10424.089176.376436441080.405512031.425512036.437.85551203TT-1.926-31.926107453.2027623233579.9342882038470.1242864732415161114126WETL
2023-04-11 00:00:05FORECAST2023200-8528.417.49222.946188.755381212040.448819141.658819146.638.28881914TT-3.6-35.6107457.6816257074686.389869734160.092056129760117161115127.5WETL
2023-04-10 20:00:05FORECAST2023200-8529.08419.2224.152182.313934312510.437008111.917008116.888.79700811TT-2.916-28.916107455.3686039128983.0200417417530.1043887972971161115127.5WETL
2023-04-10 16:00:04FORECAST2023200-8529.320.35424.827182.226785311570.649606652.049606656.818.85960665TT-2.7-24.7107455.3370498899682.97460683470.10852073830136161115127.5WETL
2023-04-10 12:00:05FORECAST2023200-8530.50622.5526.528185.039867206180.440945121.460945127.268.72094512TT-1.494-26.494107456.3520641022284.4433253407420.13374949507338161114126WETL
2023-04-10 08:00:06FORECAST2023200-8531.4622.42426.942184.301225505410.385826981.325826987.328.64582698TT-0.54-21.54107456.0862496777384.0572547517690.15636078360197161114126WETL
2023-04-10 04:00:17FORECAST2023200-8533.20620.7526.978188.198246395680.700787781.650787787.348.99078778TT1.206-30.794107457.4830590754986.0975094737370.20388303275811161115127.5WETL
2023-04-10 00:00:04FORECAST2023200-8535.99619.27427.635192.335116540970.448819141.138819147.238.36881914TT3.996-12.004107458.9507864810988.2723530044110.29542767606486162114128WETL
2023-04-09 20:00:06FORECAST2023200-8532.2720.51626.393186.209074890280.362204921.232204927.558.78220492TT0.27-22.73107456.7718078120885.0550557686470.17742400975786161114126WETL
2023-04-09 16:00:05FORECAST2023200-8530.1118.08624.098183.671473848920.346456881.226456887.538.75645688TT-1.89-26.89107455.8592272488883.7283361364330.12505675059839161114126WETL
2023-04-09 12:00:05FORECAST2023200-8535.79825.59230.695181.160607520040.413386050.763386057.237.99338605TT3.798-9.202107454.9504531302182.4191004805870.28835673265731162113126WETL
2023-04-09 08:00:06FORECAST2023200-8535.79826.29431.046177.270781350080.409449040.739449047.157.88944904TT3.798-9.202107453.5310887272880.3978104652390.28835673265731162113126WETL
2023-04-09 04:00:16FORECAST2023200-8534.95223.14429.048182.456182099680.515748310.945748316.977.91574831TT2.952-9.048107455.4200925409383.0942113365010.25907786114798162113126WETL
2023-04-09 00:00:05FORECAST2023200-8523.5423.5423.54184.8215818799400.547.027.56TT-8.46-16.46107456.2735618347484.329201468290.033231969295911161113124.5WETL
2023-04-08 20:00:07FORECAST2023200-8528.97628.97628.976182.3303676963200.326.747.06TT-3.024-7.024107455.374553162583.0286097176660.10236597081705161112123WETL
2023-04-08 16:00:04FORECAST2023200-8535.90635.90635.906177.486477087810.011811030.011811036.776.78181103TT3.90626.906107453.6101620518780.5096696338190.29220373422475162111122WETL
2023-04-08 12:00:07FORECAST2023200-8524.54824.54824.548171.51779177381007.127.12TT-7.45219.548107451.405995763377.4241595867790.041815410339325161111121.5WETL
2023-04-08 08:00:07FORECAST2023200-8529.98429.98429.984179.14785082931007.157.15TT-2.01623.984107454.2177662826781.372136638030.1223752730052161111121.5WETL
2023-04-08 04:00:13FORECAST2023200-8529.33629.33629.336173.19650459413006.986.98TT-2.66417.336107452.0293062047578.2898958087730.10922064223777161111121.5WETL