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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, April 17, 2023

[ Sunday, April 16, 2023 | Index | Today | Tuesday, April 18, 2023 ]

DAY 199 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/18/2023 04:00:09 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 28.56°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 17.00°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 22.78°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.083
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -23

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.11 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.68 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.61 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.29 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 167 in
SWE DAY: 106
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 448.97 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 74.76 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -86

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-04-18 04:00:09OBSERVATION2023199-8628.5600217.0000622.78004166.520336250.110000000000010.680000000000016.617.29TT-3.43998-23.43998106448.96975559966 74.7625946685350.08297686390123116 1113124.5WETL
2023-04-18 00:00:02FORECAST2023199-8526.00613.62219.814164.848620927790.212598540.782598546.617.39259854TT-5.994-25.994107448.9032945158274.0010890308760.049660719616334161113124.5WETL
2023-04-17 12:00:02FORECAST2023199-8527.44615.2621.353164.414196547270.350393890.920393896.617.53039389TT-4.554-24.554107448.7387951593473.7790284657120.06681742827256161113124.5WETL
2023-04-17 08:00:03FORECAST2023199-8527.82414.28821.056164.440449654280.377952960.947952966.617.55795296TT-4.176-24.176107448.748741328273.7924448058010.072003699439882161113124.5WETL
2023-04-17 04:00:14FORECAST2023199-8528.02216.28622.154164.833394988380.362204920.932204926.617.54220492TT-3.978-23.978107448.8975321227873.9933042217040.074840313995143161113124.5WETL
2023-04-17 00:00:06FORECAST2023199-8627.08614.77420.93167.927440393320.330708841.030708846.617.64070884TT-4.914-27.914106449.5010888541775.4835673052930.062150575155602161114126WETL
2023-04-16 20:00:03FORECAST2023199-8627.5914.75621.173163.417891812190.338582861.048582866.617.65858286TT-4.41-27.41106447.7915178839273.1771458239720.068758106456955161114126WETL
2023-04-16 16:00:03FORECAST2023199-8628.00415.47621.74163.348599180990.31496081.02496086.617.6349608TT-3.996-26.996106447.7650959731273.1418011893520.074578980719533161114126WETL
2023-04-16 12:00:04FORECAST2023199-8627.98616.28622.136166.00041921680.358267911.068267916.617.67826791TT-4.014-27.014106448.7729499966974.4964978326110.074318342159446161114126WETL
2023-04-16 08:00:03FORECAST2023199-8626.5114.86420.687166.329598442660.381889971.101889976.617.71188997TT-5.49-29.49106448.8975852829674.6649551019920.055215598026856161114126WETL
2023-04-16 04:00:07FORECAST2023199-8626.38414.920.642167.067160521190.429134091.199134096.617.80913409TT-5.616-28.616106449.1764662405275.0426367877480.053783005342922161114126WETL
2023-04-16 00:00:04FORECAST2023199-8626.7815.9821.38168.985447828760.437008111.247008116.617.85700811TT-5.22-32.22106449.8993516455176.0264434156870.058386500184937161114126WETL
2023-04-15 20:00:03FORECAST2023199-8627.0516.23221.641168.295603619030.389763991.129763996.617.73976399TT-4.95-28.95106449.6397969441275.6724010378480.061698187433293161114126WETL
2023-04-15 16:00:04FORECAST2023199-8627.2316.7922.01168.668524328750.401575021.221575026.617.83157502TT-4.77-29.77106449.7801652762475.8637567494850.063985956216421161114126WETL
2023-04-15 12:00:03FORECAST2023199-8626.83415.821.317168.371923539440.330708841.110708846.617.72070884TT-5.166-30.166106449.6685347840975.7115561567580.059037459808614161114126WETL
2023-04-15 08:00:04FORECAST2023199-8627.12214.19820.66168.753194869650.374015951.174015956.617.78401595TT-4.878-30.878106449.8120169728375.9072149549270.062605537568275161114126WETL
2023-04-15 04:00:09FORECAST2023199-8626.00614.28820.147169.195790413790.43307111.28307116.617.8930711TT-5.994-32.994106449.9784028572476.1344515405650.049660719616334161114126WETL
2023-04-15 00:00:04FORECAST2023199-8627.19414.64820.921171.118928142730.401575021.221575026.617.83157502TT-4.806-33.806106450.6992039055377.1231646870990.063523219795466161114126WETL
2023-04-14 20:00:03FORECAST2023199-8626.2414.39620.318171.271206226340.448819141.238819146.617.84881914TT-5.76-37.76106450.756128152177.2015457825240.052181855596898161114126WETL
2023-04-14 16:00:03FORECAST2023199-8625.77215.36820.57171.218158493110.452756151.212756156.617.82275615TT-6.228-37.228106450.7363004682377.1742393321670.047237429374533161114126WETL
2023-04-14 12:00:06FORECAST2023199-8627.55416.722.127171.546514251710.51181131.31181136.617.9218113TT-4.446-36.446106450.8589873016877.3432876906580.068268923245713161114126WETL
2023-04-14 08:00:04FORECAST2023199-8628.47217.65423.063171.499083616210.543307381.333307386.617.94330738TT-3.528-33.528106450.8412716429377.3188649431290.081602168072153161114126WETL
2023-04-14 04:00:10FORECAST2023199-8629.13818.7723.954170.793704746510.51181131.26181136.617.8718113TT-2.862-30.862106450.5775558849276.9558100452140.09243782821707161114126WETL
2023-04-14 00:00:04FORECAST2023199-8627.7717.22222.496171.769089299970.515748311.435748316.57.93574831TT-4.23-32.23106450.9420920658877.4579124811810.071244518382061161114126WETL
2023-04-13 20:00:03FORECAST2023199-8626.85215.67421.263171.674638235120.543307381.443307386.57.94330738TT-5.148-36.148106450.9068317960177.4092672263220.059255702784945161114126WETL
2023-04-13 16:00:03FORECAST2023199-8628.18418.60823.396171.454959505380.559055421.429055426.57.92905542TT-3.816-34.816106450.824789076877.2961459551840.077223731740225161114126WETL
2023-04-13 12:00:05FORECAST2023199-8629.22817.97823.603171.300550290180.3937011.4237016.57.923701TT-2.772-32.772106450.7670949532977.2166514182050.093979911671699161114126WETL
2023-04-13 08:00:04FORECAST2023199-8627.19418.26622.73171.275328581110.377952961.367952966.487.84795296TT-4.806-36.806106450.7576688553177.2036678436490.063523219795466161114126WETL
2023-04-13 04:00:10FORECAST2023199-8627.82418.53623.18172.084829210760.381889971.381889976.537.91188997TT-4.176-38.176106451.0599020299177.6205662046410.072003699439882161114126WETL
2023-04-13 00:00:03FORECAST2023199-8626.20417.4221.812172.308627914640.555118411.405118416.387.78511841TT-5.796-36.796106451.1433493738577.7358915234250.051787522833441161114126WETL
2023-04-12 20:00:05FORECAST2023199-8624.56615.9820.273171.826322873340.492126251.252126256.377.62212625TT-7.434-42.434106450.9634542656677.4873920967290.036207372525498161114126WETL
2023-04-12 16:00:03FORECAST2023199-8625.41215.65620.534171.9875959150.51181131.29181136.387.6718113TT-6.588-41.588106451.023632074777.5704701813790.043694740252271161114126WETL
2023-04-12 12:00:05FORECAST2023199-8627.12219.25623.189170.208718734650.460630170.950630176.447.39063017TT-4.878-32.878106450.3584919902476.6549418929280.062605537568275161113124.5WETL
2023-04-12 08:00:06FORECAST2023199-8626.61818.84222.73170.220112478320.488189240.928189246.377.29818924TT-5.382-38.382106450.3627617957676.6607999689210.056467295476848161113124.5WETL
2023-04-12 04:00:09FORECAST2023199-8627.39220.44423.918171.183789788530.559055421.089055426.427.50905542TT-4.608-33.608106450.7234530301577.1565488362720.066100661668885161114126WETL
2023-04-12 00:00:06FORECAST2023199-8626.76219.09422.928179.252463093181.086614761.886614766.48.28661476TT-5.238-35.238106453.7090539031681.3284654398190.058170766531351161115127.5WETL
2023-04-11 20:00:07FORECAST2023199-8627.7719.86823.819173.547917122830.925197351.675197356.478.14519735TT-4.23-33.23106451.6045828495978.375034716670.071244518382061161115127.5WETL
2023-04-11 16:00:04FORECAST2023199-8624.36817.92421.146175.553914889151.070866721.830866726.488.31086672TT-7.632-40.632106452.3480964842179.4114792304580.034615509026901161115127.5WETL
2023-04-11 12:00:09FORECAST2023199-8628.63421.34424.989171.103834538850.704724790.904724796.417.31472479TT-3.366-33.366106450.6935604494677.1153963948690.084145650347371161113124.5WETL
2023-04-11 08:00:03FORECAST2023199-8629.91222.20826.06172.07660352050.677165720.967165726.487.44716572TT-2.088-29.088106451.056834030577.6163279946790.10632197005292161113124.5WETL
2023-04-11 04:00:15FORECAST2023199-8628.65221.81225.232173.717380109090.842520141.072520146.657.72252014TT-3.348-37.348106451.6675401110878.4625017484160.084431880674393161114126WETL
2023-04-11 00:00:05FORECAST2023199-8628.32819.5823.954185.181427764050.488189241.278189246.838.10818924TT-3.672-38.672106455.8642387771684.4175906033250.079390183267071161114126WETL
2023-04-10 20:00:05FORECAST2023199-8629.37220.67825.025178.87665208840.496063261.586063267.048.62606326TT-2.628-32.628106453.5713492873681.1333244437390.096486467698366161115127.5WETL
2023-04-10 16:00:04FORECAST2023199-8629.53421.30825.421177.236792858920.476378211.396378217.088.47637821TT-2.466-29.466106452.9689317290580.282760724390.099364466170102161114126WETL
2023-04-10 12:00:05FORECAST2023199-8631.38824.22427.806181.772150264410.582677481.292677487.268.55267748TT-0.612-31.612106454.6289299931482.638878177260.13683040153869161114126WETL
2023-04-10 08:00:06FORECAST2023199-8633.40424.3528.877181.437325794340.539370371.159370377.378.52937037TT1.404-27.596106454.5070326898282.464540565960.18736637031107161114126WETL
2023-04-10 04:00:17FORECAST2023199-8631.22624.20627.716182.970821613580.763779941.263779947.38.56377994TT-0.774-38.774106455.0644733375983.2635205737290.13321695862175161114126WETL
2023-04-10 00:00:04FORECAST2023199-8633.94423.64828.796188.369374551910.622047580.692047587.58.19204758TT1.944-23.056106457.0097130650986.0866338142210.20264638993352161113124.5WETL
2023-04-09 20:00:06FORECAST2023199-8632.19824.33228.265182.734783576550.744094890.874094897.828.69409489TT0.198-29.802106454.9788125337483.1404548402710.15589416166911161113124.5WETL
2023-04-09 16:00:05FORECAST2023199-8631.22621.99226.609179.975943388730.74803190.87803197.88.6780319TT-0.774-31.774106453.9737816346181.704359623440.13321695862175161113124.5WETL
2023-04-09 12:00:05FORECAST2023199-8638.96630.00234.484177.771314627150.350393890.350393897.57.85039389TT6.966-20.034106453.1655689927380.5598389435970.37569855398586162112124WETL
2023-04-09 08:00:06FORECAST2023199-8640.06430.30835.186173.933889655840.334645850.334645857.427.75464585TT8.064-19.936106451.7479362407378.5742756943460.41912824626742162112124WETL
2023-04-09 04:00:16FORECAST2023199-8636.53628.3132.423178.391317133810.43307110.43307117.247.6730711TT4.536-19.464106453.3933183185880.8814312345210.28564045553961162112124WETL
2023-04-09 00:00:05FORECAST2023199-8633.60224.06228.832184.821581879940.535433360.535433367.297.82543336TT1.602-15.398106455.7343575303784.2295448758010.19288459490066161113124.5WETL
2023-04-08 20:00:07FORECAST2023199-8638.55229.37233.962182.330367696320.318897810.318897817.017.32889781TT6.552-11.448106454.831926126182.9296723305990.35969225669174162112124WETL
2023-04-08 16:00:04FORECAST2023199-8648.14633.20640.676177.42659599693007.047.04TT16.14616.146106453.0387861530480.3811296817140.73409338960105164111123WETL
2023-04-08 12:00:07FORECAST2023199-8644.76226.2435.501171.51779177381007.397.39TT12.76219.762106450.8482595194877.3284978978470.60948193672753163111122.5WETL
2023-04-08 08:00:07FORECAST2023199-8647.78631.60439.695179.14785082931007.427.42TT15.78618.786106453.6707350935481.2741371761610.72183255165529164111123WETL
2023-04-08 04:00:13FORECAST2023199-8643.62829.8436.734173.19650459413007.257.25TT11.62812.628106451.4739430466278.1937088510030.56419016902946163111122.5WETL
2023-04-08 00:00:07FORECAST2023199-8638.2138.2138.21189.56680739181007.477.47TT6.217.21106457.4375769728886.7149810477920.34665134694581162111122WETL
2023-04-07 20:00:06FORECAST2023199-8641.23441.23441.234183.82049613248007.567.56TT9.23417.234106455.3724047501983.7067813662230.46650331139852162111122WETL
2023-04-07 16:00:09FORECAST2023199-8645.10445.10445.104184.83163643536007.267.26TT13.10424.104106455.7379881913384.2347981431610.62288404496813163111122.5WETL
2023-04-07 12:00:04FORECAST2023199-8637.88637.88637.886187.01550536854007.357.35TT5.88611.886106456.5243816327785.3771379441110.33446182701276162111122WETL
2023-04-07 08:00:06FORECAST2023199-8638.55238.55238.552186.49232904241007.27.2TT6.5527.552106456.3363872339685.1032356820570.35969225669174162111122WETL
2023-04-07 04:00:22FORECAST2023199-8639.77639.77639.776183.6088946343900.247.267.5TT7.7764.776106455.2957801666283.5963549280960.40761756816324162112124WETL