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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, April 16, 2023

[ Saturday, April 15, 2023 | Index | Today | Monday, April 17, 2023 ]

DAY 198 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/17/2023 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.67°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 20.64°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 26.65°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.178
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -18

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.56 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.57 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.61 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.18 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 163 in
SWE DAY: 105
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 447.22 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 73.09 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -87

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-04-17 04:00:12OBSERVATION2023198-8732.6699620.6400226.65499163.426510416670.560000000000060.570000000000066.617.1800000000001TT0.66996-18.33004105447.22331903234 73.0881464064150.1780821385204716 1113124.5WETL
2023-04-17 00:00:04FORECAST2023198-8629.60617.9623.783166.484616808690.688976750.698976756.617.30897675TT-2.394-21.394106448.9562429356774.7443080690120.10592155055171161113124.5WETL
2023-04-16 12:00:02FORECAST2023198-8630.16417.56423.864164.497193633730.700787780.710787786.617.32078778TT-1.836-20.836106448.2024657246473.7280477914230.1171901802611161113124.5WETL
2023-04-16 08:00:02FORECAST2023198-8629.08416.71822.901164.634720484420.70866180.71866186.617.3286618TT-2.916-21.916106448.2547486657473.7982952523970.096106719667451161113124.5WETL
2023-04-16 04:00:07FORECAST2023198-8629.55218.01423.783165.122249258550.759842930.769842936.617.37984293TT-2.448-21.448106448.4399431462674.0474120696890.10487395500934161113124.5WETL
2023-04-16 00:00:04FORECAST2023198-8730.34419.0424.692166.945289854390.779527980.809527986.617.41952798TT-1.656-24.656105448.5640216458574.8856506119160.12099961622312161113124.5WETL
2023-04-15 20:00:02FORECAST2023198-8731.71219.7625.736166.463450193330.66929170.73929176.617.3492917TT-0.288-22.288105448.381141524874.6390718198430.15279207553463161113124.5WETL
2023-04-15 16:00:02FORECAST2023198-8730.7419.97625.358166.80413501030.74803190.81803196.617.4280319TT-1.26-23.26105448.510470124774.8134010122140.12968386459009161113124.5WETL
2023-04-15 12:00:02FORECAST2023198-8731.3718.96825.169166.805530310680.70866180.77866186.617.3886618TT-0.63-22.63105448.5109995696674.8141151333880.14436909117255161113124.5WETL
2023-04-15 08:00:03FORECAST2023198-8730.1118.75224.431166.95584253890.724409840.804409846.617.41440984TT-1.89-23.89105448.5680243666974.891052444150.11606404558939161113124.5WETL
2023-04-15 04:00:08FORECAST2023198-8729.55218.51824.035167.029197796210.759842930.849842936.617.45984293TT-2.448-25.448105448.595845659974.9286042352870.10487395500934161113124.5WETL
2023-04-15 00:00:03FORECAST2023198-8730.75818.96824.863169.045735377060.665354690.815354696.617.42535469TT-1.242-27.242105449.3586271997175.9621595830020.13008857717057161113124.5WETL
2023-04-14 20:00:03FORECAST2023198-8730.4719.09424.782168.958581124820.645669640.785669646.617.39566964TT-1.53-29.53105449.325740688675.9174396096050.12371737670047161113124.5WETL
2023-04-14 16:00:02FORECAST2023198-8730.99219.2225.106168.844052129810.614173560.764173566.617.37417356TT-1.008-29.008105449.2825136075175.858680148560.13542920687263161113124.5WETL
2023-04-14 12:00:05FORECAST2023198-8730.68620.19225.439169.029377772460.665354690.795354696.617.40535469TT-1.314-30.314105449.3524554276575.9537659414620.12847494691858161113124.5WETL
2023-04-14 08:00:04FORECAST2023198-8731.20821.34426.276168.85219221560.641732630.791732636.617.40173263TT-0.792-27.792105449.2855863638375.8628561884030.1404902814433161113124.5WETL
2023-04-14 04:00:09FORECAST2023198-873221.23626.618168.240324383850.637795620.747795626.617.35779562TT0-26105449.0544385490775.5490644075020.16013235205107161113124.5WETL
2023-04-14 00:00:04FORECAST2023198-8731.7318.39225.061168.847738680680.74803190.91803196.57.4180319TT-0.27-26.27105449.2839052312575.8605714239220.15324421636566161113124.5WETL
2023-04-13 20:00:02FORECAST2023198-8731.49618.78825.142168.614295156510.74803190.89803196.57.3980319TT-0.504-28.504105449.1957576995675.7408260718070.14743524990006161113124.5WETL
2023-04-13 16:00:03FORECAST2023198-8731.44221.07426.258168.419420972020.712598810.872598816.57.37259881TT-0.558-28.558105449.1221337902875.6408897186780.14611589404355161113124.5WETL
2023-04-13 12:00:05FORECAST2023198-8732.37822.8227.599169.120077802240.82677211.02677216.57.5267721TT0.378-27.622105449.386673583476.0003091997150.17010967670861161114126WETL
2023-04-13 08:00:04FORECAST2023198-8731.15421.7426.447169.150432473990.885827250.985827256.487.46582725TT-0.846-29.846105449.3981236481176.0158869680770.13921316895008161113124.5WETL
2023-04-13 04:00:10FORECAST2023198-8731.85621.09226.474169.875761405460.917323330.997323336.537.52732333TT-0.144-32.144105449.671462056876.3882819992070.15643393807731161114126WETL
2023-04-13 00:00:03FORECAST2023198-8731.83820.6626.249169.061800615010.775590970.845590976.387.22559097TT-0.162-29.162105449.3646884113975.9704033556340.15597561290497161113124.5WETL
2023-04-12 20:00:05FORECAST2023198-8730.39819.90425.151168.78795163980.720472830.760472836.377.13047283TT-1.602-32.602105449.2613348135375.8299004541360.12215919890796161113124.5WETL
2023-04-12 16:00:03FORECAST2023198-8730.2919.7625.025168.850178369490.716535820.776535826.387.15653582TT-1.71-32.71105449.2848261740375.8618230381890.11984777618211161113124.5WETL
2023-04-12 12:00:04FORECAST2023198-8734.84422.92828.886167.569472723340.377952960.487952966.446.92795296TT2.844-26.156105448.8005949786175.2052790584850.24457255218994161112123WETL
2023-04-12 08:00:05FORECAST2023198-8733.87222.1928.031167.297282462010.330708840.440708846.376.81070884TT1.872-31.128105448.6974774856175.0658686309020.21332109857884161112123WETL
2023-04-12 04:00:09FORECAST2023198-8736.30225.3430.821168.004318831950.437008110.527008116.426.94700811TT4.302-26.698105448.9651857179175.4280902057950.29571424114752162113126WETL
2023-04-12 00:00:06FORECAST2023198-8735.65426.07830.866172.137293374730.665354690.795354696.47.19535469TT3.654-28.346105450.5204890793577.5513775999780.27238681322859162113126WETL
2023-04-11 20:00:06FORECAST2023198-8738.19227.17632.684167.726301931780.649606650.749606656.477.21960665TT6.192-26.808105448.859976330575.2856239151020.3684404859803162113126WETL
2023-04-11 16:00:03FORECAST2023198-8734.57423.5429.057168.089125727920.62992160.75992166.487.2399216TT2.574-31.426105448.99726423975.4715576001620.23565256490586161113124.5WETL
2023-04-11 12:00:08FORECAST2023198-8735.99625.21430.605166.784399431790.204724520.204724526.416.61472452TF3.996-28.004105448.5029812834674.8033003767280.28458443223944162112124WETL
2023-04-11 08:00:03FORECAST2023198-8735.54625.4330.488167.965007514730.287401730.287401736.486.76740173TT3.546-25.454105448.9503137231675.4079428182490.2685895408981162112124WETL
2023-04-11 04:00:15FORECAST2023198-8735.626.88831.244168.552846616190.177165450.227165456.656.87716545TT3.6-32.4105449.1725462352875.7093112897970.27048485166052162112124WETL
2023-04-11 00:00:04FORECAST2023198-8736.17625.82631.001181.579497074910.724409840.794409846.837.62440984TT4.176-32.824105454.0130719226582.4394652651490.29110720122574162113126WETL
2023-04-10 20:00:04FORECAST2023198-8736.75227.28432.018175.440772487460.980315491.090315497.048.13031549TT4.752-28.248105451.7519527938979.255711570880.3124346575944162114128WETL
2023-04-10 16:00:04FORECAST2023198-8738.08428.38233.233173.954222846570.921260340.921260347.088.00126034TT6.084-24.916105451.1990785987778.4879850667360.36412307052393162113126WETL
2023-04-10 12:00:05FORECAST2023198-8737.86828.59833.233178.313656290840.440945120.710945127.267.97094512TT5.868-29.132105452.8145317418480.7430147765120.35554024056522162113126WETL
2023-04-10 08:00:06FORECAST2023198-8738.89428.34633.62178.496201114120.401575020.621575027.377.99157502TT6.894-27.106105452.8817870356780.837678539640.39688696559943162113126WETL
2023-04-10 04:00:17FORECAST2023198-8736.12225.82630.974178.14113974450.185039470.495039477.37.79503947TT4.122-35.878105452.7509425151980.6535689200540.2891430592968162113126WETL
2023-04-10 00:00:04FORECAST2023198-8742.8928.68835.789183.963249162560.066929170.156929177.417.56692917TT10.89-23.11105454.8816363511183.681503807530.56477186738815163112125WETL
2023-04-09 20:00:06FORECAST2023198-8741.01828.83234.925177.142288185020.125984320.195984327.757.94598432TT9.018-27.982105452.3822197723180.1360215446860.48572805190121162112124WETL
2023-04-09 16:00:05FORECAST2023198-8740.7328.79634.763173.816622105720.125984320.185984327.747.92598432TT8.73-29.27105451.1477968027678.4169861106950.47353919510067162112124WETL
2023-04-09 12:00:05FORECAST2023198-8747.76831.35239.56176.92918747631007.57.5TT15.768-25.232105452.3034331986880.0256789285850.75215631513362164111123WETL
2023-04-09 08:00:06FORECAST2023198-8747.96631.13639.551173.28752056812007.427.42TT15.966-26.034105450.9504413041278.1440838726890.75876284450692164111123WETL
2023-04-09 04:00:15FORECAST2023198-8744.3329.89437.112177.67339931877007.247.24TT12.33-21.67105452.5783941483880.4111417465730.62401755720637163111122.5WETL
2023-04-09 00:00:05FORECAST2023198-8740.8227.80634.313180.23283471504007.297.29TT8.82-15.18105453.5200607657881.7392061519530.47734609039508162111122WETL
2023-04-08 20:00:06FORECAST2023198-8743.66430.54237.103180.3532352686007.017.01TT11.664-16.336105453.5642079134681.8017722992310.59688811754435163111122.5WETL
2023-04-08 16:00:04FORECAST2023198-8748.7435.0641.9178.61507119693007.047.04TT16.741.74105452.9255657768280.8993321781360.7836474724979164111123WETL
2023-04-08 12:00:07FORECAST2023198-8747.35433.42240.388172.25746457381007.397.39TT15.3549.354105450.5654675767777.6132650692880.73803687528463164111123WETL
2023-04-08 08:00:06FORECAST2023198-8747.35433.63840.496180.24550282931007.427.42TT15.3545.354105453.5247064058381.7457887516340.73803687528463164111123WETL
2023-04-08 04:00:13FORECAST2023198-8745.28431.80238.543173.87369339413007.257.25TT13.2843.284105451.169068617778.4464323057490.66180487316747163111122.5WETL
2023-04-08 00:00:07FORECAST2023198-8748.4733.841.135189.60075539181007.477.47TT16.473.47105456.9149617116386.6314218903430.77513968244441164111123WETL
2023-04-07 20:00:06FORECAST2023198-8752.23235.31243.772183.87097533248007.567.56TT20.23210.232105454.8481124181283.6333660584590.87611565867092165111123.5WETL
2023-04-07 16:00:09FORECAST2023198-8757.1136.64446.877184.90327163536007.267.26TT25.1113.11105455.2227078168984.1721679980490.953052417359165111123.5WETL
2023-04-07 12:00:04FORECAST2023198-8749.06434.08841.576187.04768216854007.357.35TT17.0648.064105455.9977302716185.2933185214190.79360710836881164111123WETL
2023-04-07 08:00:05FORECAST2023198-8747.1233.27840.199186.52814664241007.27.2TT15.123.12105455.8103495563985.0214597231810.72987796922258164111123WETL
2023-04-07 04:00:21FORECAST2023198-8748.66828.11238.39183.651403434390.244094620.244094627.267.50409462TT16.668-1.332105454.7683083231383.5188380610260.78139709852142164112126WETL
2023-04-07 00:00:05FORECAST2023198-8729.9329.9329.93189.42953778545007.067.06TT-2.07-23.07105456.8536350105386.5415729156450.11236563374871161111121.5WETL
2023-04-06 20:00:04FORECAST2023198-8731.67631.67631.676184.97946524488007.617.61TT-0.324-26.324105455.2503177337484.2119603269480.15189044348006161111121.5WETL
2023-04-06 16:00:07FORECAST2023198-8740.51440.51440.514182.8431194379900.017.587.59TT8.514-13.486105454.4741511864383.0974715068590.46441315823572162111122WETL
2023-04-06 12:00:06FORECAST2023198-8730.8330.8330.83192.6252993259500.037.667.69TT-1.17-30.17105457.993907214888.2212134667140.13171613802912161111121.5WETL
2023-04-06 08:00:06FORECAST2023198-8730.8330.8330.83190.3952721289200.037.47.43TT-1.17-23.17105457.1991928460687.0485647390490.13171613802912161111121.5WETL
2023-04-06 04:00:16FORECAST2023198-8732.68432.68432.684191.4212391191600.047.77.74TT0.684-37.316105457.5653756451187.587731184010.17847135524486161111121.5WETL