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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, April 13, 2023

[ Wednesday, April 12, 2023 | Index | Today | Friday, April 14, 2023 ]

DAY 195 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/14/2023 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 29.12°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 18.82°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 23.97°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.122
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -31

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.17 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.81 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.84 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.65 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 166 in
SWE DAY: 102
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 446.31 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 73.88 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -90

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-04-14 04:00:07OBSERVATION2023195-9029.1218.8200423.97002165.539367083330.169999999999960.809999999999965.846.65TT-2.88-30.88102446.31148684055 73.8821210536060.1222255026247816 1113124.5WETL
2023-04-14 00:00:01FORECAST2023195-8928.99417.7823.387165.231210749740.059055150.699055155.846.53905515TT-3.006-31.006103446.7681829339373.8200477906350.11990529248493161113124.5WETL
2023-04-13 12:00:02FORECAST2023195-8928.09417.5122.802165.230210325240.062992160.702992165.846.54299216TT-3.906-31.906103446.7677988956773.8195373780740.1042301638333161113124.5WETL
2023-04-13 08:00:01FORECAST2023195-8927.51817.40222.46165.13787470510.035433090.675433095.846.51543309TT-4.482-32.482103446.7323493295973.7724307303060.095008506851166161113124.5WETL
2023-04-13 04:00:08FORECAST2023195-8927.37417.1522.262165.805220101310.094488240.734488245.846.57448824TT-4.626-32.626103446.988370114174.1130050894940.092799648986856161113124.5WETL
2023-04-13 00:00:02FORECAST2023195-9028.54417.0622.802165.314391534510.074803190.584803195.846.42480319TF-3.456-32.456102446.2248386651773.7673876915190.1118721081294161113124.5WETL
2023-04-12 20:00:01FORECAST2023195-9028.0416.48422.262165.150337473970.035433090.565433095.846.40543309TF-3.96-32.96102446.1616228628673.6837425837350.10333911143174161113124.5WETL
2023-04-12 16:00:02FORECAST2023195-9028.41815.60222.01165.198125179990.047244120.577244125.846.41724412TF-3.582-32.582102446.1800398666673.7081060787030.10969319903211161113124.5WETL
2023-04-12 12:00:04FORECAST2023195-9028.56216.722.631165.501001797360.110236280.640236285.846.48023628TT-3.438-32.438102446.2967141496773.8625532906420.1121858820829161113124.5WETL
2023-04-12 08:00:04FORECAST2023195-9027.51816.37621.947165.254021918110.059055150.569055155.846.40905515TF-4.482-34.482102446.201579190873.7366055474940.095008506851166161113124.5WETL
2023-04-12 04:00:08FORECAST2023195-9027.55417.27622.415165.935102302120.074803190.624803195.846.46480319TT-4.446-34.446102446.4637821266874.0840133613820.095566704151784161113124.5WETL
2023-04-12 00:00:05FORECAST2023195-9027.73416.1621.947168.588119518480.066929170.596929175.846.43692917TT-4.266-35.266102447.4808292574675.4399515250850.098393799701944161113124.5WETL
2023-04-11 20:00:03FORECAST2023195-9027.71616.14221.929164.586575587520.051181130.671181135.846.51118113TT-4.284-36.284102445.9441846622373.3964262567260.098108373386735161113124.5WETL
2023-04-11 16:00:02FORECAST2023195-9027.17616.3421.758164.555382845980.066929170.676929175.846.51692917TT-4.824-35.824102445.9321447923673.3805348096370.089824590638221161113124.5WETL
2023-04-11 12:00:07FORECAST2023195-9028.4915.67422.082166.6178575336700.615.846.45TT-3.51-34.51102446.7261749701174.4325581777330.11093454136083161113124.5WETL
2023-04-11 08:00:03FORECAST2023195-9027.66215.90821.785166.974911634760.027559070.677559075.846.51755907TT-4.338-34.338102446.863214993674.614945836380.097255722978055161113124.5WETL
2023-04-11 04:00:14FORECAST2023195-9026.81615.56621.191167.813519632980.043307110.853307115.846.69330711TT-5.184-38.184102447.1845906627475.0436200847480.084597395116035161113124.5WETL
2023-04-11 00:00:04FORECAST2023195-9026.02415.72820.876178.26694925960.059055150.739055156.136.86905515TT-5.976-42.976102451.1336831072180.4222253957690.073902949327554161113124.5WETL
2023-04-10 20:00:03FORECAST2023195-9026.9616.37621.668170.826540812960.043307110.803307116.287.08330711TT-5.04-40.04102448.3336243846476.5872821837640.086660306229496161113124.5WETL
2023-04-10 16:00:03FORECAST2023195-9027.10416.66421.884170.856779099580.03937010.83937016.287.1193701TT-4.896-39.896102448.3451114260776.60280166330.088760456634465161113124.5WETL
2023-04-10 12:00:04FORECAST2023195-9025.91616.86221.389175.8419900067701.026.287.3TT-6.084-41.084102450.2269014211379.1687943004730.072528185596718161114126WETL
2023-04-10 08:00:05FORECAST2023195-9025.57415.81820.696176.2999845964701.026.397.41TT-6.426-41.426102450.3985905779379.405264581160.068303423013511161114126WETL
2023-04-10 04:00:16FORECAST2023195-9024.99815.40420.201176.0259149596701.026.327.34TT-7.002-44.002102450.2958736589879.2637431633870.061619170411171161114126WETL
2023-04-10 00:00:03FORECAST2023195-9025.73616.1620.948184.30713766840.027559071.047559076.47.44755907TT-6.264-44.264102453.3681985849783.5589949910750.070280415229519161114126WETL
2023-04-09 20:00:04FORECAST2023195-9025.30416.5220.912177.272354696310.019685050.949685056.847.78968505TT-6.696-45.696102450.7624430068879.907719680490.06510384656678161113124.5WETL
2023-04-09 16:00:04FORECAST2023195-9024.58414.30619.445174.041322856020.011811030.941811036.847.78181103TT-7.416-48.416102449.549942852378.240266743860.057137747233146161113124.5WETL
2023-04-09 12:00:05FORECAST2023195-9024.31415.9820.147178.1522010763100.896.657.54TT-7.686-46.686102451.0909003054680.362836774910.054355616655196161113124.5WETL
2023-04-09 08:00:04FORECAST2023195-9024.63816.10620.372174.5315917681201.036.437.46TT-7.362-47.362102449.7345656842778.4928896220180.057707351433077161114126WETL
2023-04-09 04:00:14FORECAST2023195-9028.00417.27622.64178.6606465187700.746.547.28TT-3.996-40.996102451.2803747514480.6260435143240.10274814685159161113124.5WETL
2023-04-09 00:00:04FORECAST2023195-9030.75815.63823.198180.972113915040.031496080.781496086.557.33149608TT-1.242-34.242102452.1386751584181.8244918261610.15526211339863161113124.5WETL
2023-04-08 20:00:06FORECAST2023195-9027.93216.53822.235181.38682886860.031496080.701496086.357.05149608TT-4.068-39.068102452.2921357970482.0398362344310.10157356953741161113124.5WETL
2023-04-08 16:00:04FORECAST2023195-9029.55218.73424.143180.607867996930.023622060.673622066.417.08362206TT-2.448-33.448102452.0037566180781.6354348093930.13041831688264161113124.5WETL
2023-04-08 12:00:06FORECAST2023195-9032.39617.88825.142174.4581805738100.646.797.43TT0.396-29.604102449.7069355245578.4550537630360.19369161870883161113124.5WETL
2023-04-08 08:00:06FORECAST2023195-9032.70218.3225.511182.305900429310.007874020.587874026.877.45787402TT0.702-31.298102452.6316524313482.5174209593030.20146424746175161113124.5WETL
2023-04-08 04:00:12FORECAST2023195-9031.8217.85224.836175.4668877941300.626.677.29TT-0.18-29.18102450.0861374093478.9752137704980.17956444438326161113124.5WETL
2023-04-08 00:00:06FORECAST2023195-9032.37817.6925.034191.602112991810.007874020.657874026.857.50787402TT0.378-31.622102456.0216039289387.3747028826970.19324015973607161113124.5WETL
2023-04-07 20:00:05FORECAST2023195-9032.28818.6825.484186.603051332480.015748040.705748046.897.59574804TT0.288-36.712102454.208600396984.7567107755180.19099249231197161113124.5WETL
2023-04-07 16:00:08FORECAST2023195-9031.7317.74424.737187.7036372353600.66.77.3TT-0.27-36.27102454.609727074385.3318992944180.17741692791271161113124.5WETL
2023-04-07 12:00:04FORECAST2023195-9033.90818.7726.339189.097649368540.03937010.67937016.717.3893701TT1.908-29.092102455.1161907868586.0614018673570.23386432501178161113124.5WETL
2023-04-07 08:00:05FORECAST2023195-9033.15218.28425.718188.4243146424100.726.527.24TT1.152-31.848102454.8717829501485.708903952550.2132275112164161113124.5WETL
2023-04-07 04:00:19FORECAST2023195-9033.85418.96826.411184.6503122091500.736.577.3TT1.854-30.146102453.4941267653383.7378320922360.232354567678161113124.5WETL
2023-04-07 00:00:04FORECAST2023195-9029.35415.74622.55189.8383897854500.566.547.1TT-2.646-32.646102455.3845831955686.4494760069620.12661742944102161113124.5WETL
2023-04-06 20:00:03FORECAST2023195-9030.16417.25823.711185.4980332448800.577.087.65TT-1.836-38.836102453.804728626584.1798846374410.14266067973194161113124.5WETL
2023-04-06 16:00:06FORECAST2023195-9028.99415.15222.073183.906130522640.102362260.892362266.737.62236226TT-3.006-40.006102453.2209095421883.3501037458530.11990529248493161113124.5WETL
2023-04-06 12:00:06FORECAST2023195-9028.8517.7823.315192.7922043810.133858341.183858346.527.70385834TT-3.15-40.15102456.4498309476587.9999690977310.11729173553291161114126WETL
2023-04-06 08:00:06FORECAST2023195-9029.91220.04824.98190.574239847540.133858341.173858346.277.44385834TT-2.088-34.088102455.6507041650786.8352865822540.13752896469129161114126WETL
2023-04-06 04:00:16FORECAST2023195-9028.72418.1423.432191.443737188580.133858341.183858346.567.74385834TT-3.276-48.276102455.9645183811387.2915514242730.1150380880452161114126WETL
2023-04-06 00:00:07FORECAST2023195-9028.99417.38423.189196.777850281530.110236281.050236286.737.78023628TT-3.006-42.006102457.8745835367290.0995762469050.11990529248493161114126WETL
2023-04-05 20:00:05FORECAST2023195-9029.6618.46424.062196.590166307790.11811030.98811036.627.6081103TT-2.34-44.34102457.8078150856290.0005145046890.13252436655056161113124.5WETL
2023-04-05 16:00:06FORECAST2023195-9030.63218.17624.404195.918472996510.153543390.733543396.437.16354339TT-1.368-49.368102457.5685996625489.6461413370370.15252967148545161113124.5WETL
2023-04-05 12:00:05FORECAST2023195-9029.26418.9524.107202.767323986260.15748041.29748046.387.6774804TT-2.736-49.736102459.9887049360393.2706787637840.12491543246419161114126WETL
2023-04-05 08:00:05FORECAST2023195-9030.45219.07624.764200.782608826770.263779671.093779676.377.46377967TT-1.548-42.548102459.2917144054992.2177886308560.14868171096604161114126WETL
2023-04-05 04:00:15FORECAST2023195-9030.45219.424.926205.064645932340.062992161.242992166.878.11299216TT-1.548-48.548102460.7911012663394.4919640299520.14868171096604161114126WETL
2023-04-04 20:00:07FORECAST2023195-9026.52817.49222.01212.997697328260.019685051.539685056.628.15968505TT-5.472-57.472102463.5261902995798.730011185150.080582053814062161115127.5WETL
2023-04-04 16:00:06FORECAST2023195-9032.86425.03428.949210.259910298480.082677211.142677217.018.15267721TT0.864-39.136102462.5885010844297.2638167431160.20565360848294161114126WETL
2023-04-04 12:00:05FORECAST2023195-9030.95623.61227.284211.164630914640.255905651.075905657.38.37590565TT-1.044-46.044102462.8990886049797.7479151959920.15962066025037161114126WETL
2023-04-04 08:00:05FORECAST2023195-9032.01823.32427.671209.58772245490.279527711.129527717.098.21952771TT0.018000000000001-33.982102462.3572786995496.9044090030830.18434606022206161114126WETL
2023-04-04 04:00:16FORECAST2023195-9028.14823.52225.835188.9063296867100.375.095.46TF-3.852-5.852102455.0467878484885.9612185281820.10512675404089161112123WETL
2023-04-04 00:00:05FORECAST2023195-9028.47227.3227.896199.246886410720.11811030.32811036.576.8981103TT-3.528-18.528102458.7499843375591.4045060202250.11062326945249161112123WETL
2023-04-03 20:00:06FORECAST2023195-9028.47227.3227.896197.680196187520.11811030.32811036.596.9181103TT-3.528-18.528102458.1951484932490.5761068463150.11062326945249161112123WETL
2023-04-03 16:00:07FORECAST2023195-9027.98624.90826.447198.461574984140.027559070.477559076.336.80755907TT-4.014-21.014102458.4721460417390.9891041898030.10245358425598161112123WETL
2023-04-03 12:00:04FORECAST2023195-9028.14823.52225.835188.8696142700400.375.095.46TF-3.852-5.852102455.0334651426585.9419950414520.10512675404089161112123WETL
2023-04-03 08:00:05FORECAST2023195-9024.51219.63422.073190.910802328400.45.195.59TF-7.488-17.488102455.7722566727587.0118472004220.056385147054785161112123WETL
2023-04-03 04:00:12FORECAST2023195-9019.92217.45618.689197.1588712547500.895.486.37TT-12.078-29.078102458.0100336382690.300741255470.022371990571623161113124.5WETL