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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, April 10, 2023

[ Sunday, April 9, 2023 | Index | Today | Tuesday, April 11, 2023 ]

DAY 192 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/11/2023 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.08°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.01°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 31.05°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.319
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -38

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.93 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.42 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.57 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.99 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 164 in
SWE DAY: 99
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 443.98 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 72.83 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -93

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-04-11 04:00:12OBSERVATION2023192-9336.0800626.0099631.04501164.026902916670.930000000000062.42000000000014.576.9900000000001TT4.08006-37.9199499443.98332899387 72.8252104014960.3190830957606816 21151210WETL
2023-04-11 00:00:02FORECAST2023192-9333.15225.17829.165174.743195860631.216536092.706536094.577.27653609TT1.152-40.84899448.1163417726578.3052816787270.21935827494227161115127.5WETL
2023-04-10 12:00:02FORECAST2023192-9334.0726.61830.344170.934402764151.366142472.856142474.577.42614247TT2.07-39.9399446.660252575276.3496035124260.24856473600337161115127.5WETL
2023-04-10 08:00:02FORECAST2023192-9334.30426.67230.488171.270505739341.480315762.970315764.577.54031576TT2.304-39.69699446.789311086576.5218312687150.256327181611031621151210WETL
2023-04-10 04:00:14FORECAST2023192-9333.4426.02429.732170.887740083341.405512572.895512574.577.46551257TT1.44-40.5699446.6423260926476.3256977315370.22830284105364161115127.5WETL
2023-04-10 00:00:03FORECAST2023192-9333.1725.53829.354178.677802815961.413386592.983386594.577.55338659TT1.17-41.8399449.6058097290180.3345782156670.21991135389927161115127.5WETL
2023-04-09 20:00:02FORECAST2023192-9333.58425.37629.48172.248153829451.610237093.420237094.577.99023709TT1.584-42.41699447.164087580677.0231885445910.23285074854276161115127.5WETL
2023-04-09 16:00:01FORECAST2023192-9333.47624.06228.769169.018494376861.61417413.42417414.577.9941741TT1.476-42.52499445.9224646314275.369143580820.22943512264108161115127.5WETL
2023-04-09 12:00:03FORECAST2023192-9333.49424.2628.877173.589482923821.41732363.22732364.577.7973236TT1.494-42.50699447.6767673616977.7119785633230.23000243950507161115127.5WETL
2023-04-09 08:00:03FORECAST2023192-9333.83623.79228.814169.00186489031.295276293.005276294.577.57527629TT1.836-41.16499445.9160451325675.3606432119080.2409291427072161115127.5WETL
2023-04-09 04:00:13FORECAST2023192-9333.15225.46629.309174.906822014961.314961343.124961344.577.69496134TT1.152-41.84899448.1785804891378.389491208530.21935827494227161115127.5WETL
2023-04-09 00:00:03FORECAST2023192-9335.31225.21430.263176.690681298291.287402273.127402274.577.69740227TT3.312-37.68899448.8554340565579.308572447890.291150870550471621151210WETL
2023-04-08 20:00:04FORECAST2023192-9335.04224.60229.822177.548192168811.244095162.934095164.577.50409516TT3.042-38.95899449.1797114098779.7510457197320.281609972972181621151210WETL
2023-04-08 16:00:03FORECAST2023192-9334.59224.67429.633177.059221657731.311024332.991024334.577.56102433TT2.592-39.40899448.9948882776279.4986854467360.266051334584261621151210WETL
2023-04-08 12:00:06FORECAST2023192-9335.5125.4330.47171.082301178611.69291433.37291434.577.9429143TT3.51-38.4999446.7170569267976.4253820747710.298241966770241621151210WETL
2023-04-08 08:00:05FORECAST2023192-9335.40226.43830.92179.387776729791.665355233.445355234.578.01535523TT3.402-39.59899449.8729926635380.7017159646890.294364345967841621151210WETL
2023-04-08 04:00:11FORECAST2023192-9336.48226.07831.28172.250437663181.515748853.245748854.577.81574885TT4.482-37.51899447.164961987777.024360410020.334134571691291621151210WETL
2023-04-08 00:00:04FORECAST2023192-9334.62824.81829.723187.884299177171.366142473.296142474.77.99614247TT2.628-43.37299453.0333633281385.1178559727810.267279843146651621151210WETL
2023-04-07 20:00:05FORECAST2023192-9333.9824.33229.156182.406618170431.311024333.361024334.688.04102433TT1.98-44.0299451.003702027282.2660600691250.24561282484327161115127.5WETL
2023-04-07 16:00:07FORECAST2023192-9332.923.10828.004184.047385657051.173228983.173228984.687.85322898TT0.9-46.199451.614625696583.118491183930.21169937422142161115127.5WETL
2023-04-07 12:00:03FORECAST2023192-9335.2425.46630.353185.279133891731.114173833.184173834.687.86417383TT3.24-42.7699452.0715848422783.7594316966370.288591932271351621151210WETL
2023-04-07 08:00:04FORECAST2023192-9335.625.21430.407184.23258420671.082677752.922677754.757.67267775TT3.6-41.499451.6834227854783.2148042230940.301490956948071621151210WETL
2023-04-07 04:00:16FORECAST2023192-9335.02424.85429.939180.365545206941.248032172.968032174.757.71803217TT3.024-38.97699450.2401663305581.2078130742730.280979306301231621151210WETL
2023-04-07 00:00:04FORECAST2023192-9335.07824.69229.885186.193206871841.444882672.904882674.797.69488267TT3.078-41.92299452.4097685497684.2356256264260.282873348109921621151210WETL
2023-04-06 20:00:02FORECAST2023192-9334.73625.01629.876181.870138251531.472441743.052441745.188.23244174TT2.736-44.26499450.8033960221981.9876759588160.270982439833821621151210WETL
2023-04-06 16:00:04FORECAST2023192-9334.57422.3728.472177.860636899421.405512572.635512575.247.87551257TT2.574-43.42699449.2976904401279.912373379120.26543815316921621151210WETL
2023-04-06 12:00:05FORECAST2023192-9333.60222.96428.283185.096044572241.330709382.560709385.117.67070938TT1.602-44.39899452.0037520225383.6641066311820.23342274889104161115127.5WETL
2023-04-06 08:00:05FORECAST2023192-9334.0723.82828.949183.328235615711.169291972.429291974.997.41929197TT2.07-40.9399451.3471706208982.7446804400710.24856473600337161115127.5WETL
2023-04-06 04:00:15FORECAST2023192-9332.41424.18828.301183.604906811221.240158152.560158155.157.71015815TT0.414-51.58699451.4501236859282.8884578892650.19737779382425161115127.5WETL
2023-04-06 00:00:06FORECAST2023192-9334.66422.9128.787189.043321232571.149606922.819606925.067.87960692TT2.664-44.33699453.4592114026685.7234353670620.268511203945611621151210WETL
2023-04-05 20:00:04FORECAST2023192-9333.821.30827.554188.991335283131.114173832.784173834.997.77417383TT1.8-47.299453.4401375588985.6962570682240.23976584726331161115127.5WETL
2023-04-05 16:00:05FORECAST2023192-9330.8322.26226.546190.587748507210.755905922.385905925.197.57590592TT-1.17-53.1799454.0247203408686.5315492163790.15490815680451161115127.5WETL
2023-04-05 12:00:04FORECAST2023192-9329.69625.21427.455193.863561566820.803150042.463150045.077.53315004TT-2.304-53.30499455.2168773936688.2499651368620.1285068905449161115127.5WETL
2023-04-05 08:00:04FORECAST2023192-9330.5625.62828.094193.389094464590.86614222.66614224.857.5161422TT-1.44-49.4499455.0448196799188.0007056186980.14831949892779161115127.5WETL
2023-04-05 04:00:15FORECAST2023192-9329.04824.4426.744196.600779675211.082677753.012677755.018.02267775TT-2.952-55.95299456.2054461431389.6903464038150.11490424445893161115127.5WETL
2023-04-05 00:00:04FORECAST2023192-9358.40642.00850.207189.2820175826700.224.574.79TF26.40611.40699453.5467576829885.8482453623110.96786943666048165112127WETL
2023-04-04 20:00:06FORECAST2023192-9325.6121.27223.441201.036118040351.011811572.891811574.887.77181157TT-6.39-60.3999457.7927848256592.0328843282320.05954121891548161115127.5WETL
2023-04-04 16:00:05FORECAST2023192-9327.71623.50425.61201.953529947071.090551773.220551774.948.16055177TT-4.284-53.28499458.1188862426992.5187262121310.090220144723658161115127.5WETL
2023-04-04 12:00:04FORECAST2023192-9327.12222.47824.8203.111801342360.850394163.4503941658.45039416TT-4.878-54.87899458.5295192462493.1327566227520.08057524607933161115127.5WETL
2023-04-04 08:00:05FORECAST2023192-9330.34424.45827.401201.494813167410.803150043.363150044.888.24315004TT-1.656-46.65699457.9559266721392.2757438837110.14318513440471161115127.5WETL
2023-04-04 04:00:15FORECAST2023192-9342.42233.67438.048186.566793637320.295275751.175275755.066.23527575TT10.422-21.57899452.5477602599684.4303845994520.574677759832261631141210WETL
2023-04-04 00:00:04FORECAST2023192-9339.36226.07832.72196.975300840770.925197352.705197355.017.71519735TT7.362-36.63899456.340173778989.887743015830.448497359874271621151210WETL
2023-04-03 20:00:06FORECAST2023192-9339.36226.07832.72195.408610617570.925197352.705197355.037.73519735TT7.362-36.63899455.7757292452389.0625020050210.448497359874271621151210WETL
2023-04-03 16:00:06FORECAST2023192-9338.6628.63433.647195.441417990550.763779942.453779945.037.48377994TT6.66-37.3499455.7875720706489.0797693879560.419819435907631621151210WETL
2023-04-03 12:00:03FORECAST2023192-9342.42233.67438.048186.530078220650.295275751.175275755.066.23527575TT10.422-21.57899452.5342044910584.4112405612370.574677759832261631141210WETL
2023-04-03 08:00:04FORECAST2023192-9343.37633.20638.291188.253824032170.263779671.253779675.096.34377967TT11.376-25.62499453.1692703676485.3108480805790.613082131762781631141210WETL
2023-04-03 04:00:11FORECAST2023192-9342.832.39637.598189.328815565860.295275751.575275755.056.62527575TT10.8-29.299453.5639154823685.8727189016910.590001297608651631151212.5WETL
2023-04-03 00:00:05FORECAST2023192-9349.67638.80444.24188.66745205190.566929441.626929445.97.52692944TT17.676-15.32499453.3212468194185.5269645984090.826822797166181641151215WETL
2023-04-02 20:00:04FORECAST2023192-9345.75235.3340.541185.427129564320.547244391.627244396.017.63724439TT13.752-28.24899452.1263927551783.8364992088590.703362476001991641151215WETL
2023-04-02 16:00:04FORECAST2023192-9346.14834.71840.433185.199347324870.444882131.344882136.057.39488213TT14.148-29.85299452.0420285700383.7178886545790.717429010552931641141212WETL
2023-04-02 12:00:05FORECAST2023192-9352.46636.12244.294183.7382977024701.095.876.96TT20.466-12.53499451.4997343830782.9577926086620.890968925566371651141214WETL
2023-04-02 08:00:04FORECAST2023192-9352.7937.50845.149183.2127262688700.925.946.86TT20.79-8.2199451.3041666297982.6846667447460.897135154280251651131210.5WETL
2023-04-02 04:00:16FORECAST2023192-9353.0638.33645.698182.9541846559700.885.756.63TT21.06-11.9499451.2078661602682.5503672637120.902077503540981651131210.5WETL
2023-04-02 00:00:05FORECAST2023192-9355.43637.68846.562175.7095596689500.424.955.37TF23.436-7.56499448.4835445131978.8028461251820.93831550157477165112127WETL
2023-04-01 20:00:04FORECAST2023192-9357.88440.08248.983166.3499677006200.424.885.3TF25.8840.88499444.8888531368174.0072463496740.96374602928394165112127WETL
2023-04-01 16:00:06FORECAST2023192-9359.86441.21650.54163.6440181023300.444.655.09TF27.86413.86499443.8335679980972.6307084359010.97738584085675165112127WETL
2023-04-01 12:00:07FORECAST2023192-9358.40642.00850.207165.2820175826700.224.574.79TF26.40611.40699444.4732326752873.4634326580590.96786943666048165112127WETL
2023-04-01 08:00:06FORECAST2023192-9356.60640.7348.668166.1249342520100.154.684.83TF24.6062.60699444.8013692667873.8925982246480.95181162422941165112127WETL
2023-04-01 04:00:10FORECAST2023192-9358.83839.27249.055162.81990118904003.923.92TF26.83814.83899443.5107295930572.212373168620.97098268849037165111123.5DRYL
2023-04-01 00:00:05FORECAST2023192-9340.76634.17837.472174.7108513782900.14.554.65TF8.766-11.23499448.1040357929478.2886375994320.50651631664425163112125WETL
2023-03-31 20:00:06FORECAST2023192-9340.40634.46637.436165.6074153230900.094.74.79TF8.406-8.59499444.5999890827873.6290550446710.49160359975189162111122WETL
2023-03-31 16:00:05FORECAST2023192-9341.23434.53837.886165.7773603919800.094.564.65TF9.234-6.76699444.6661483581173.7155803304780.5258861295773163111122.5WETL
2023-03-31 12:00:07FORECAST2023192-9335.94234.19635.069170.965045106400.094.584.67TF3.942-17.05899446.6720233409976.365302618260.31397958135813162111122WETL
2023-03-31 08:00:06FORECAST2023192-9338.9336.73437.832169.2260856737800.094.414.5TF6.93-8.0799446.0025785109975.4752705618280.43080769677549162111122WETL
2023-03-31 04:00:15FORECAST2023192-9342.2641.41441.837166.9585616199200.044.164.2TF10.26-0.7499445.1251994143974.3174630350070.56807440435096163111122.5WETL