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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, March 9, 2023

[ Wednesday, March 8, 2023 | Index | Today | Friday, March 10, 2023 ]

DAY 160 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/10/2023 07:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 22.05°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 15.89°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 18.97°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.078
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -10
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -140

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.13 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.58 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.80 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.38 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 160 in
SWE DAY: 68
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 422.96 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 67.67 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -124

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-03-10 07:00:12OBSERVATION2023160-12422.0499615.8918.96998159.991477916670.130000000000110.580000000000115.86.3800000000001TF-9.95004-139.9500468422.95680204778 67.6694838545320.078447049304216 1113124.5WETL
2023-03-10 03:00:12OBSERVATION2023160-12422.0499615.8918.96998159.991477916670.130000000000110.580000000000115.86.3800000000001TF-9.95004-139.9500468422.95680204778 67.6694838545320.078447049304216 1113124.5WETL
2023-03-09 11:00:02FORECAST2023160-12423.75614.19818.977159.495553406620.106299270.556299275.86.35629927TF-8.244-138.24468422.7362963029867.4245595239070.1096521400099161113124.5WETL
2023-03-09 07:00:11FORECAST2023160-12424.49414.79219.643159.090941044350.114173290.564173295.86.36417329TF-7.506-137.50668422.5561853315967.2248611685120.12560007683829161113124.5WETL
2023-03-09 03:00:09FORECAST2023160-12423.3613.9118.635158.849613220220.051181130.501181135.86.30118113TF-8.64-138.6468422.4486714165967.1058080599210.10171812071797161113124.5WETL
2023-03-08 23:00:02FORECAST2023160-12424.69214.30619.499157.253718635820.051181130.421181135.86.22118113TF-7.308-137.30868421.7360233714666.3195579578440.13014048239457161112123WETL
2023-03-08 19:00:01FORECAST2023160-12426.83414.32420.579157.421448113970.094488240.464488245.86.26448824TF-5.166-135.16668421.8110590318466.4021077432790.18648265493325161112123WETL
2023-03-08 15:00:01FORECAST2023160-12426.27614.21620.246157.118514323740.027559070.397559075.86.19755907TF-5.724-135.72468421.6755149338266.2530304331010.17052718593789161112123WETL
2023-03-08 11:00:04FORECAST2023160-12424.13414.9919.562158.58463257490.015748040.385748045.86.18574804TF-7.866-137.86668422.3305440042466.9751341460710.11762967224808161112123WETL
2023-03-08 07:00:08FORECAST2023160-12425.12415.56620.345159.157762969570.043307110.413307115.86.21330711TF-6.876-137.87668422.5859435067567.2578334309180.14043627391087161112123WETL
2023-03-08 03:00:07FORECAST2023160-12424.92616.46620.696159.438432738350.090551230.480551235.86.28055123TF-7.074-138.07468422.7108805710567.3963602996940.13565084962144161112123WETL
2023-03-07 23:00:04FORECAST2023160-12423.4515.3519.4163.279968480270.173228440.543228445.86.34322844TF-8.55-141.5568424.4119758255869.2979740354510.10348366472038161113124.5WETL
2023-03-07 19:00:03FORECAST2023160-12423.61215.15219.382163.215180515550.161417410.531417415.86.33141741TF-8.388-142.38868424.3834240389769.2658171623290.10671731173261161113124.5WETL
2023-03-07 15:00:03FORECAST2023160-12423.50415.7119.607163.223024816130.141732360.521732365.86.32173236TF-8.496-143.49668424.3868812396269.2697104482150.1045535753557161113124.5WETL
2023-03-07 11:21:23FORECAST2023160-12425.32217.31221.317163.321252472850.125984320.515984325.86.31598432TF-6.678-140.67868424.4301670586869.3184664712850.14533470964317161113124.5WETL
2023-03-07 11:00:02FORECAST2023160-12425.32217.31221.317184.321252472850.125984320.515984325.86.31598432TF-6.678-140.67868433.4406033714979.8923148860210.14533470964317161113124.5WETL
2023-03-07 07:00:16FORECAST2023160-12424.42216.5220.471184.211623842830.129921330.529921335.86.32992133TF-7.578-143.57868433.3948021707679.836360272920.12397667108264161113124.5WETL
2023-03-07 03:00:12FORECAST2023160-12425.08816.26820.678184.124854289810.106299270.516299275.86.31629927TF-6.912-140.91268433.3585421072379.7920784207410.13955780169488161113124.5WETL
2023-03-06 23:00:05FORECAST2023160-12426.47417.85222.163167.741645148640.303149770.773149775.86.57314977TT-5.526-140.52668426.3669579032571.5194949557140.17608609729961161113124.5WETL
2023-03-06 19:00:06FORECAST2023160-12425.12417.67221.398166.927663600070.318897810.608897815.86.40889781TF-6.876-143.87668426.0119442146471.1131785134710.14043627391087161113124.5WETL
2023-03-06 15:00:04FORECAST2023160-12424.816.95220.876167.116918850740.397638010.607638015.86.40763801TF-7.2-146.268426.0945523792271.2076087326990.13266423664751161113124.5WETL
2023-03-06 11:00:04FORECAST2023160-12425.10617.621.353167.410496179370.295275750.595275755.86.39527575TF-6.894-145.89468426.222617613371.3541398975130.13999657091802161113124.5WETL
2023-03-06 07:00:09FORECAST2023160-12424.65618.24821.452165.788672827290.122047310.322047315.766.08204731TF-7.344-140.34468425.5139457680170.5453923383810.1293066405821161112123WETL
2023-03-06 03:00:12FORECAST2023160-12424.51217.04220.777166.142182140870.244094620.494094625.786.27409462TF-7.488-140.48868425.6686640880670.7215207205810.12600822850316161113124.5WETL
2023-03-05 23:00:05FORECAST2023160-12424.58418.3221.452166.888327838380.102362260.312362265.786.09236226TF-7.416-138.41668425.9947695337671.0935547553870.12765005076779161112123WETL
2023-03-05 19:00:05FORECAST2023160-12424.65618.7721.713166.839444031640.098425250.248425255.86.04842525TF-7.344-141.34468425.9734236181471.0691691687060.1293066405821161112123WETL
2023-03-05 15:00:05FORECAST2023160-12423.79217.67220.732167.720513035940.125984320.365984325.826.18598432TF-8.208-146.20868426.3577505229871.5089406545630.11039478809229161112123WETL
2023-03-05 11:00:05FORECAST2023160-12422.78415.09818.941167.823714781620.15748040.30748045.756.0574804TF-9.216-148.21668426.4027114172671.5604870230.09093406861252161112123WETL
2023-03-05 07:00:18FORECAST2023160-12423.25215.29619.274167.431503660330.141732360.291732365.615.90173236TF-8.748-149.74868426.2317779026471.3646274820550.099628447935655161112123WETL
2023-03-05 03:00:10FORECAST2023160-12426.16818.2322.199167.011220098450.149606380.259606385.615.86960638TF-5.832-140.83268426.0484207484371.1548665702150.16754283025511161112123WETL
2023-03-04 23:00:05FORECAST2023160-12425.01617.72621.371160.105969669540.19685050.30685055.615.9168505TF-6.984-141.98468423.0076697166467.7260531376330.13781205676008161112123WETL
2023-03-04 19:00:03FORECAST2023160-12424.3516.84420.597160.0297874040.169291430.269291435.625.88929143TF-7.65-142.6568422.9738242595267.6884111737090.12236796232062161112123WETL
2023-03-04 15:00:06FORECAST2023160-12424.06215.85419.958160.372743377830.299212760.359212765.585.93921276TF-7.938-143.93868423.1261375306767.8578994706570.11607939832733161112123WETL
2023-03-04 11:00:05FORECAST2023160-12426.54616.12421.335163.286405564370.208661530.358661535.595.94866153TF-5.454-142.45468424.4148123651869.3011691793890.1781355774964161112123WETL
2023-03-04 07:00:15FORECAST2023160-12426.58215.8921.236163.084871884510.251968640.391968645.55.89196864TF-5.418-143.41868424.3259833365369.2011486297070.17916592011188161112123WETL
2023-03-04 03:00:18FORECAST2023160-12425.80817.56421.686162.522928814320.015748040.225748045.65.82574804TF-6.192-142.19268424.0780581041968.9224080489850.15783901545159161112123WETL
2023-03-03 23:00:04FORECAST2023160-12426.47415.20620.84154.340226277710.066929170.246929175.896.13692917TF-5.526-147.52668420.4275266328464.8888795938890.17608609729961161112123WETL
2023-03-03 19:00:06FORECAST2023160-12426.67214.97220.822154.364409202190.062992160.232992165.96.13299216TF-5.328-148.32868420.4384274787364.900729463650.18175809749915161112123WETL
2023-03-03 15:00:05FORECAST2023160-12427.89613.51420.705154.786937300780.173228440.373228445.796.16322844TF-4.104-145.10468420.6287808668665.1078407309430.21929761173911161112123WETL
2023-03-03 11:00:04FORECAST2023160-12428.54414.5421.542161.721845195760.35433090.53433096.086.6143309TT-3.456-139.45668423.724013417868.5254293036790.24084868855875161113124.5WETL
2023-03-03 07:00:08FORECAST2023160-12428.1316.14222.136161.060440149820.346456880.506456885.896.39645688TF-3.87-136.8768423.43115726668.198008562410.22694949250731161113124.5WETL
2023-03-03 03:00:07FORECAST2023160-12428.47215.92622.199161.284004991180.255905650.575905655.856.42590565TF-3.528-140.52868423.5302020936468.3086472283870.23839871283536161113124.5WETL
2023-03-02 23:00:04FORECAST2023160-12429.9315.3522.64159.841170676150.374015950.614015956.076.68401595TT-2.07-139.0768422.8899994141267.5952325735890.29056068764918162113126WETL
2023-03-02 19:00:04FORECAST2023160-12429.62416.19622.91159.581020112740.338582860.588582866.026.60858286TT-2.376-143.37668422.7743176644667.4667568903630.27918432332384162113126WETL
2023-03-02 15:00:07FORECAST2023160-12427.91415.65621.785159.120864417950.023622060.283622066.336.61362206TT-4.086-146.08668422.5695118964667.2396260096350.21988091189525161112123WETL
2023-03-02 11:00:05FORECAST2023160-12430.03814.3622.199161.852274247490.03937010.05937016.256.3093701TF-1.962-146.96268423.7817065869568.5900329955790.29462697960957162111122WETL
2023-03-02 07:00:13FORECAST2023160-12429.26414.77422.019161.805820945540.03937010.04937016.226.2693701TF-2.736-151.73668423.7611609159468.5670225268370.26608356827429162111122WETL
2023-03-02 03:00:17FORECAST2023160-12429.28215.36822.325162.44083532465006.346.34TF-2.718-151.71868424.0418094146168.8817057338830.26673114704986162111122WETL
2023-03-01 23:00:07FORECAST2023160-12428.83212.77620.804168.236490270160.011811030.271811036.316.58181103TF-3.168-148.16868426.5824234790471.7667297370520.2507839254243162112124WETL
2023-03-01 19:00:06FORECAST2023160-12428.47212.63220.552167.049978119810.011811030.251811036.26.45181103TF-3.528-146.52868426.0653379087471.1742053752630.23839871283536161112123WETL
2023-03-01 15:00:06FORECAST2023160-12426.81614.61220.714169.008367797570.011811030.401811036.376.77181103TT-5.184-147.18468426.9179743521672.1527100287020.18595398759177161112123WETL
2023-03-01 11:00:08FORECAST2023160-12428.02217.85222.937167.714435015840.133858340.513858346.026.53385834TT-3.978-132.97868426.3551022039571.5059050822560.2233993238123161113124.5WETL
2023-03-01 07:00:21FORECAST2023160-12426.90617.72622.316167.362339763950.177165450.537165455.916.44716545TF-5.094-134.09468426.2016172159271.3300998684340.18860659769994161113124.5WETL
2023-03-01 03:00:14FORECAST2023160-12427.33815.67421.506165.023772577840.023622060.063622066.156.21362206TF-4.662-137.66268425.1787005432970.1645931833960.20166026089741161111121.5WETL
2023-02-28 23:00:04FORECAST2023160-12427.19416.73621.965160.5508584140800.025.875.89TF-4.806-139.80668423.2051894735367.9459564552670.19725021638729161111121.5WETL
2023-02-28 19:00:08FORECAST2023160-12429.51619.8524.683159.190643047100.025.735.75TF-2.484-133.48468422.600584318467.2740587697280.27522141138399162111122WETL
2023-02-28 15:00:08FORECAST2023160-12434.98819.52627.257160.941158196200.115.875.98TF2.988-133.01268423.3782893571668.1389922442680.50090050787315163112125WETL
2023-02-28 11:00:04FORECAST2023160-12436.75222.38829.57162.822062731750.066929170.116929175.775.88692917TF4.752-128.24868424.2100778810969.0707599121940.57748578502089163112125WETL
2023-02-28 07:00:11FORECAST2023160-12436.75221.07428.913162.908792736780.066929170.136929175.815.94692917TF4.752-131.24868424.2483365515169.1137843281920.57748578502089163112125WETL
2023-02-28 03:00:10FORECAST2023160-12427.62621.36224.494164.256493857530.31496080.31496085.555.8649608TF-4.374-146.37468424.8417578590369.7830175901950.21065524046864161112123WETL
2023-02-27 23:00:04FORECAST2023160-12419.6719.6719.67156.3588589726500.115.675.78TF-12.33-159.3368421.3351571975165.8794844244660.046766457995894161112123WETL
2023-02-27 19:00:03FORECAST2023160-12418.7718.7718.77155.3122688241800.035.585.61TF-13.23-161.2368420.8651635694865.3655234230340.037865228541208161111121.5WETL
2023-02-27 15:00:05FORECAST2023160-12418.7718.7718.77154.5024537925700.045.515.55TF-13.23-153.2368420.5006405007464.9683807787130.037865228541208161111121.5WETL
2023-02-27 11:00:04FORECAST2023160-12418.17618.17618.176157.78346351749005.85.8TF-13.824-155.82468421.9729017606166.5803459503160.03278430006411161111121.5WETL
2023-02-27 07:00:13FORECAST2023160-12418.17618.17618.176157.52464253574005.865.86TF-13.824-150.82468421.8572083303566.4529059433620.03278430006411161111121.5WETL
2023-02-27 03:00:13FORECAST2023160-12422.40622.40622.406157.89651529059005.95.9TF-9.594-147.59468422.0234122389766.636026163580.084331666172717161111121.5WETL