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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, March 8, 2023

[ Tuesday, March 7, 2023 | Index | Today | Thursday, March 9, 2023 ]

DAY 159 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/09/2023 07:00:10 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 25.29°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 14.32°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 19.81°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.116
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -129

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.41 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.57 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.01 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.58 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 159 in
SWE DAY: 67
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 421.66 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 66.87 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -125

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-03-09 07:00:10OBSERVATION2023159-12525.2899614.3200419.805158.585640833330.409999999999970.569999999999976.016.58TT-6.71004-128.7100467421.66256219332 66.8696276408530.1164015461771216 1113124.5WETL
2023-03-09 03:00:08OBSERVATION2023159-12525.2899614.3200419.805158.585640833330.409999999999970.569999999999976.016.58TT-6.71004-128.7100467421.66256219332 66.8696276408530.1164015461771216 1113124.5WETL
2023-03-08 11:00:02FORECAST2023159-12524.90814.66619.787158.500239084090.334645850.494645856.016.50464585TT-7.092-129.09267421.6243285435466.8275568778190.10747779455713161113124.5WETL
2023-03-08 07:00:08FORECAST2023159-12523.9916.64620.318158.92803232790.330708840.490708846.016.50070884TT-8.01-130.0167421.815764752867.038349497050.088064273335871161113124.5WETL
2023-03-08 03:00:07FORECAST2023159-12523.5416.03419.787158.967499804770.346456880.506456886.016.51645688TT-8.46-130.4667421.8334158532867.0578034523030.079558647294561161113124.5WETL
2023-03-07 23:00:02FORECAST2023159-12525.28615.13420.21162.389323002490.299212760.489212766.016.49921276TT-6.714-131.71467423.3570555112568.74866563280.11630641825192161112123WETL
2023-03-07 19:00:02FORECAST2023159-12524.22414.03619.13162.384442351490.299212760.489212766.016.49921276TT-7.776-132.77667423.3548917145268.746248007840.092745797848569161112123WETL
2023-03-07 15:00:01FORECAST2023159-12522.98216.3419.661162.484076164270.311023790.501023796.016.51102379TT-9.018-134.01867423.3990582360668.7956048263070.069890429363517161113124.5WETL
2023-03-07 11:21:22FORECAST2023159-12524.09816.75420.426162.707181246060.318897810.508897816.016.51889781TT-7.902-132.90267423.4979176213568.9061524397470.090202683294953161113124.5WETL
2023-03-07 11:00:02FORECAST2023159-12524.09816.75420.426183.707181246060.318897810.508897816.016.51889781TT-7.902-132.90267432.5567771904779.4637862665430.090202683294953161113124.5WETL
2023-03-07 07:00:15FORECAST2023159-12523.86416.35820.111183.583453190420.311023790.521023796.016.53102379TT-8.136-135.13667432.5048067320479.4007259413230.085617342845928161113124.5WETL
2023-03-07 03:00:12FORECAST2023159-12524.5316.91620.723183.589754314720.318897810.528897816.016.53889781TT-7.47-133.4767432.5074538370779.4039371892340.099141217757479161113124.5WETL
2023-03-06 23:00:04FORECAST2023159-12525.89817.07821.488166.188020352790.322834820.592834826.016.60283482TT-6.102-134.10267425.0330678305770.6354041272330.13166585042277161113124.5WETL
2023-03-06 19:00:05FORECAST2023159-12524.83616.53820.687165.26330536440.177165450.407165456.016.41716545TF-7.164-136.16467424.6265649116270.1751896628260.1058522402151161112123WETL
2023-03-06 15:00:04FORECAST2023159-12523.91816.44820.183164.993106027440.125984320.325984326.016.33598432TF-8.082-138.08267424.507605442170.0408283541650.086659741672994161112123WETL
2023-03-06 11:00:04FORECAST2023159-12524.42217.02420.723165.895507209280.19685050.41685056.016.4268505TF-7.578-137.57867424.9045828470470.4897612869590.096848282247519161112123WETL
2023-03-06 07:00:09FORECAST2023159-12526.22217.16821.695165.131481326470.122047310.282047316.016.29204731TF-5.778-131.77867424.5685375235770.1096315258770.14033895170643161112123WETL
2023-03-06 03:00:11FORECAST2023159-12525.01617.13221.074164.807765586590.173228440.3632284466.36322844TF-6.984-131.98467424.4259592034969.9486939932720.10994962789228161112123WETL
2023-03-05 23:00:05FORECAST2023159-12527.12217.1522.136166.289409477360.125984320.295984326.026.31598432TF-4.878-129.87867425.0775802390970.6858998000250.16642328347221161112123WETL
2023-03-05 19:00:05FORECAST2023159-12525.48417.36621.425166.277329264420.082677210.262677216.026.28267721TF-6.516-132.51667425.0722773193970.6798830170140.12113038008208161112123WETL
2023-03-05 15:00:05FORECAST2023159-12523.8116.55620.183166.989762212450.181102460.371102466.026.39110246TF-8.19-137.1967425.384740057571.0348965910050.08458432932599161112123WETL
2023-03-05 11:00:04FORECAST2023159-12523.52215.09819.31166.868582428610.098425250.208425256.026.22842525TF-8.478-138.47867425.3316322654770.9744865381850.079231785449586161112123WETL
2023-03-05 07:00:18FORECAST2023159-12524.27814.0919.184166.587078913620.098425250.188425255.96.08842525TF-7.722-139.72267425.2081984926770.8341917170190.093851736518691161112123WETL
2023-03-05 03:00:09FORECAST2023159-12526.2416.12421.182166.20678350040.055118140.115118145.936.04511814TF-5.76-133.7667425.0413061947870.6447483574430.14083187882778161112123WETL
2023-03-04 23:00:05FORECAST2023159-12525.0716.8820.975158.900626936170.066929170.126929175.926.04692917TF-6.93-133.9367421.8035071562867.0248417310050.11120068075262161112123WETL
2023-03-04 19:00:03FORECAST2023159-12524.38616.86220.624158.920717126790.066929170.126929175.926.04692917TF-7.614-133.61467421.8124929697667.0347438757920.096092662244382161112123WETL
2023-03-04 15:00:05FORECAST2023159-12524.2616.66420.462158.44204011110.015748040.055748045.915.96574804TF-7.74-134.7467421.598268597366.7988897838640.09348201747364161111121.5WETL
2023-03-04 11:00:04FORECAST2023159-12524.9816.84420.912162.025864033330.129921330.149921335.926.06992133TF-7.02-136.0267423.1958455446968.5686725296930.10912120542254161112123WETL
2023-03-04 07:00:14FORECAST2023159-12525.10616.75420.93161.588271464350.125984320.135984325.835.96598432TF-6.894-136.89467423.0015565210268.3520903449630.11204034035559161112123WETL
2023-03-04 03:00:17FORECAST2023159-12525.0717.56421.317162.417091881160.185039470.205039475.936.13503947TF-6.93-134.9367423.3693661061968.7624212345390.11120068075262161112123WETL
2023-03-03 23:00:04FORECAST2023159-12524.38616.84420.615153.812766013650.094488240.214488246.196.40448824TF-7.614-140.61467419.5130144845164.5264571365860.096092662244382161112123WETL
2023-03-03 19:00:06FORECAST2023159-12523.21616.6119.913153.868471591540.149606380.179606386.226.39960638TF-8.784-141.78467419.5382530602464.5537097725650.073829034556887161112123WETL
2023-03-03 15:00:05FORECAST2023159-12523.43214.91819.175153.436927286960.188976480.218976486.16.31897648TF-8.568-139.56867419.3426395416764.3426460916780.077612659169922161112123WETL
2023-03-03 11:00:04FORECAST2023159-12525.21415.78220.498159.470288432310.161417410.371417416.226.59141741TT-6.786-134.78667422.0581239987967.3057307692870.1145864011843161112123WETL
2023-03-03 07:00:08FORECAST2023159-12525.4317.13221.281158.79235983080.145669370.245669376.136.37566937TF-6.57-131.5767421.7550742349366.9714835083780.11980105312305161112123WETL
2023-03-03 03:00:07FORECAST2023159-12523.86416.55620.21159.624495049410.165354420.315354426.186.49535442TF-8.136-136.13667422.1269851033367.3818068438470.085617342845928161112123WETL
2023-03-02 23:00:03FORECAST2023159-12524.00813.49618.752157.314457659940.074803190.254803196.396.64480319TT-7.992-135.99267421.0926061837266.2439549664030.088418034772056161112123WETL
2023-03-02 19:00:04FORECAST2023159-12523.32414.43218.878157.22098436630.102362260.262362266.346.60236226TT-8.676-139.67667421.050623205766.1979934484470.075702902799171161112123WETL
2023-03-02 15:00:06FORECAST2023159-12524.20614.48619.346158.980234930880.102362260.402362266.526.92236226TT-7.794-140.79467421.8391110257567.0640809739070.092379294626075161112123WETL
2023-03-02 11:00:04FORECAST2023159-12524.83613.49619.166161.6054565427100.156.456.6TF-7.164-144.16467423.0091906887868.3605933830220.1058522402151161112123WETL
2023-03-02 07:00:13FORECAST2023159-12526.04212.57819.31161.5568446446800.126.446.56TF-5.958-147.95867422.9875948491168.3365411476640.1354739414917161112123WETL
2023-03-02 03:00:17FORECAST2023159-12524.45814.50419.481162.4408353246500.136.546.67TT-7.542-147.54267423.3798914427468.7741832256180.097608241534681161112123WETL
2023-03-01 23:00:06FORECAST2023159-12524.49413.118.797168.101133435390.232283590.322283596.586.90228359TT-7.506-143.50667425.8710437237871.5894051472780.098372550082892161112123WETL
2023-03-01 19:00:06FORECAST2023159-12523.88214.37819.13166.923387251480.224409570.304409576.476.77440957TT-8.118-142.11867425.3556528437771.0018063592460.085963764378312161112123WETL
2023-03-01 15:00:06FORECAST2023159-12523.41415.8919.652168.86450281890.366141930.516141936.577.08614193TT-8.586-140.58667426.2042775174571.9707734222710.077291859551576161113124.5WETL
2023-03-01 11:00:08FORECAST2023159-12531.78416.17823.981166.460962825750.295275750.465275756.266.72527575TT-0.216-128.21667425.1528704267870.7713561593750.3457406049756162112124WETL
2023-03-01 07:00:20FORECAST2023159-12527.03218.0522.541165.709664729580.267716680.427716686.176.59771668TT-4.968-127.96867424.822902831370.3972607976220.16368258639015161112123WETL
2023-03-01 03:00:13FORECAST2023159-12525.53816.95221.245164.8345925268200.096.436.52TF-6.462-132.46267424.4377793961969.9620284197590.12247001669358161111121.5WETL
2023-02-28 23:00:04FORECAST2023159-12525.89816.84421.371160.5508584140800.046.186.22TF-6.102-134.10267422.5400862978467.8391735694750.13166585042277161111121.5WETL
2023-02-28 19:00:08FORECAST2023159-12528.23819.11223.675159.190643047100.036.056.08TF-3.762-129.76267421.9331792723367.1678141312710.20283469124205161111121.5WETL
2023-02-28 15:00:07FORECAST2023159-12527.53616.39421.965160.96123179620.062992160.172992166.146.31299216TF-4.464-135.46467422.7227771913468.041978925030.17940843506605161112123WETL
2023-02-28 11:00:03FORECAST2023159-12530.09219.72424.908162.351748913560.015748040.115748046.036.14574804TF-1.908-131.90867423.3403966543468.7300537825920.27284075064247162112124WETL
2023-02-28 07:00:11FORECAST2023159-12527.35619.8523.603162.403807439210.031496080.141496086.076.21149608TF-4.644-134.64467423.3634769099768.7558405808830.17368652619707161112123WETL
2023-02-28 03:00:09FORECAST2023159-12526.92416.91621.92161.1116304401800.025.865.88TF-5.076-141.07667422.7896843094368.1163353723840.16043255514213161111121.5WETL
2023-02-27 23:00:04FORECAST2023159-12527.4117.79822.604156.3588589726500.155.966.11TF-4.59-145.5967420.6629343804165.774376431810.17539080933551161112123WETL
2023-02-27 19:00:03FORECAST2023159-12527.10417.07822.091155.312268824180.027559070.027559075.915.93755907TF-4.896-146.89667420.1911513789465.2608410605060.16587279303152161111121.5WETL
2023-02-27 15:00:05FORECAST2023159-12528.20218.73423.468154.502453792570.035433090.055433095.825.87543309TF-3.798-138.79867419.8252404873564.8640298193530.20159070778355161111121.5WETL
2023-02-27 11:00:04FORECAST2023159-12528.3118.06823.189157.7834635174900.116.026.13TF-3.69-140.6967421.3031069832166.4746634104920.2053363458588161112123WETL
2023-02-27 07:00:13FORECAST2023159-12528.65218.06823.36157.5246425357400.126.076.19TF-3.348-136.34867421.1869730815566.347327375380.21746658871692161112123WETL
2023-02-27 03:00:13FORECAST2023159-12533.22416.50224.863157.8965152905900.056.186.23TF1.224-136.77667421.3538097665466.5302982665530.41280093623045162111122WETL
2023-02-26 23:00:03FORECAST2023159-12517.63617.63617.636153.6913073548400.096.366.45TF-14.364-156.36467419.4579727188364.4670442075680.016392170913298161111121.5WETL
2023-02-26 19:00:05FORECAST2023159-12518.2318.2318.23153.3217314349600.116.36.41TF-13.77-154.7767419.2903864666264.2863280270960.019628423026705161112123WETL
2023-02-26 15:00:05FORECAST2023159-12516.08816.08816.088153.6588685214900.156.196.34TF-15.912-166.91267419.4432694470964.4511781921940.010018610420904161112123WETL
2023-02-26 11:00:05FORECAST2023159-12523.03623.03623.036159.2148645491100.016.356.36TF-8.964-144.96467421.944004878367.1797575840070.070784720133493161111121.5WETL
2023-02-26 07:00:16FORECAST2023159-12523.03623.03623.036155.4956727224200.016.056.06TF-8.964-140.96467420.2739170382265.3507754575450.070784720133493161111121.5WETL
2023-02-26 03:00:18FORECAST2023159-12521.05621.05621.056158.7094473487800.485.946.42TF-10.944-142.94467421.7179746115266.9306266876420.043315718172624161112123WETL