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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, March 7, 2023

[ Monday, March 6, 2023 | Index | Today | Wednesday, March 8, 2023 ]

DAY 158 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/08/2023 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 28.53°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 19.76°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 24.14°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.220
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -124

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.04 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.31 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.21 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.52 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 157 in
SWE DAY: 66
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 420.50 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 66.22 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -126

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-03-08 07:00:07OBSERVATION2023158-12628.5299619.7624.14498157.490270434780.0399999999999640.309999999999966.216.52TF-3.47004-124.4700466420.49869872484 66.2244537796490.2204628921813216 1112123WETL
2023-03-08 03:00:06OBSERVATION2023158-12628.5299619.7624.14498157.490270434780.0399999999999640.309999999999966.216.52TF-3.47004-124.4700466420.49869872484 66.2244537796490.2204628921813216 1112123WETL
2023-03-07 11:21:20FORECAST2023158-12625.62816.01620.822161.258439895190.066929170.336929176.216.54692917TF-6.372-127.37266422.1885335341168.0814642593490.13459537783553161112123WETL
2023-03-07 11:00:01FORECAST2023158-12625.62816.01620.822182.258439895190.066929170.336929176.216.54692917TF-6.372-127.37266431.3154056315678.610872933170.13459537783553161112123WETL
2023-03-07 07:00:14FORECAST2023158-12624.24215.90820.075182.167607426620.094488240.364488246.216.57448824TT-7.758-128.75866431.2769677212278.5646933479820.10298847113808161112123WETL
2023-03-07 03:00:11FORECAST2023158-12624.7115.94420.327182.165529502270.090551230.360551236.216.57055123TT-7.29-128.2966431.2760882945578.5636369858440.11299676888676161112123WETL
2023-03-06 23:00:01FORECAST2023158-12627.19417.22222.208164.708076957240.153543390.423543396.216.63354339TT-4.806-129.80666423.7214057528369.7903379071690.17761349272741161112123WETL
2023-03-06 19:00:01FORECAST2023158-12625.93417.621.767164.47820398270.110236280.380236286.216.59023628TT-6.066-131.06666423.6196771202369.6762036644660.14238518260473161112123WETL
2023-03-06 15:00:01FORECAST2023158-12625.2516.23220.741164.360483921010.082677210.352677216.216.56267721TT-6.75-131.7566423.5675579510669.6177687980770.1253822264124161112123WETL
2023-03-06 11:00:04FORECAST2023158-12625.37616.93421.155164.934867011060.098425250.368425256.216.57842525TT-6.624-131.62466423.8217118703769.9029776837410.12840321036019161112123WETL
2023-03-06 07:00:08FORECAST2023158-12627.12217.5122.316164.535749818510.082677210.312677216.216.52267721TF-4.878-127.87866423.6451491899969.7047722789490.17546368349006161112123WETL
2023-03-06 03:00:11FORECAST2023158-12624.94416.3420.642163.939446866050.07874020.32874026.216.5387402TF-7.056-127.05666423.3810211627569.4088504230040.11825255549749161112123WETL
2023-03-05 23:00:04FORECAST2023158-12627.24817.45622.352165.716334918840.082677210.332677216.216.54267721TF-4.752-126.75266424.1669021209270.2913844133590.17923668394411161112123WETL
2023-03-05 19:00:04FORECAST2023158-12626.49217.65422.073165.877483282370.074803190.344803196.216.55480319TT-5.508-127.50866424.2379994524770.3715316619240.15735942279734161112123WETL
2023-03-05 15:00:04FORECAST2023158-12625.05217.5121.281165.938926742850.059055150.349055156.216.55905515TT-6.948-130.94866424.265100139170.4020953715270.12073554551161161112123WETL
2023-03-05 11:00:04FORECAST2023158-12624.20615.2619.733166.328814082850.047244120.267244126.216.47724412TF-7.794-131.79466424.4369680685270.596097551760.10224607167147161112123WETL
2023-03-05 07:00:17FORECAST2023158-12625.41214.75620.084166.045312999030.047244120.127244126.216.33724412TF-6.588-133.58866424.3120136123370.455021109510.12927552624954161112123WETL
2023-03-05 03:00:09FORECAST2023158-12625.98816.59221.29165.932524503210.047244120.127244126.216.33724412TF-6.012-130.01266424.2622765194570.398910594350.14379080531901161112123WETL
2023-03-04 23:00:05FORECAST2023158-12625.91616.53821.227158.521666034730.043307110.103307116.236.33330711TF-6.084-129.08466420.962836638766.7317302026730.14191870844985161112123WETL
2023-03-04 19:00:02FORECAST2023158-12625.91616.28621.101158.506531536030.027559070.097559076.236.32755907TF-6.084-128.08466420.9560347555866.7242809982690.14191870844985161112123WETL
2023-03-04 15:00:04FORECAST2023158-12625.48416.21420.849158.353166156870.03937010.06937016.236.2993701TF-6.516-128.51666420.8870931494966.6488037947830.1310324220329161111121.5WETL
2023-03-04 11:00:04FORECAST2023158-12625.03416.28620.66161.314613001310.015748040.055748046.236.28574804TF-6.966-130.96666422.2136022031668.1092238432910.12031919271353161111121.5WETL
2023-03-04 07:00:14FORECAST2023158-12625.59215.00820.3160.886639247470.007874020.057874026.136.18787402TF-6.408-132.40866422.0225178779567.8977845881410.1336984841509161111121.5WETL
2023-03-04 03:00:17FORECAST2023158-12625.68214.70220.192161.371108078940.015748040.115748046.186.29574804TF-6.318-130.31866422.2388109527968.1371447973840.13594842364108161112123WETL
2023-03-03 23:00:03FORECAST2023158-12625.35815.74620.552153.23023135070.086614220.186614226.476.65661422TT-6.642-134.64266418.5687051570464.1373795273780.12796858362588161112123WETL
2023-03-03 19:00:06FORECAST2023158-12624.815.47620.138152.881597571920.015748040.115748046.486.59574804TF-7.2-135.266418.4098316184863.9671634976310.11499820764089161112123WETL
2023-03-03 15:00:05FORECAST2023158-12625.39415.09820.246152.140513346780.007874020.097874026.386.47787402TF-6.606-132.60666418.0716494048563.6056353561890.12883885772779161112123WETL
2023-03-03 11:00:04FORECAST2023158-12626.25816.2521.254158.536144672330.023622060.363622066.426.78362206TT-5.742-129.74266420.9693435140866.7388567459650.15095863020802161112123WETL
2023-03-03 07:00:08FORECAST2023158-12626.47416.39421.434157.940287384240.007874020.227874026.356.57787402TF-5.526-126.52666420.7013602021466.4456937332680.15686082808101161112123WETL
2023-03-03 03:00:06FORECAST2023158-12625.37617.09621.236158.619073108530.145669370.385669376.296.67566937TT-6.624-129.62466421.0066079492466.7796779254740.12840321036019161112123WETL
2023-03-02 23:00:03FORECAST2023158-12624.67414.25219.463156.732865668940.165354420.415354426.56.91535442TT-7.326-130.32666420.157084168565.8524238328350.11220317304876161112123WETL
2023-03-02 19:00:04FORECAST2023158-12624.69214.32419.508156.465509750850.145669370.305669376.546.84566937TT-7.308-133.30866420.0363407997665.7212001771140.11259947320087161112123WETL
2023-03-02 15:00:06FORECAST2023158-12623.77414.79219.283158.216246915930.161417410.441417416.737.17141741TT-8.226-135.22666420.825521802666.5814346660460.093638248439843161112123WETL
2023-03-02 11:00:04FORECAST2023158-12623.39612.50617.951161.605456542710.023622060.263622066.696.95362206TT-8.604-138.60466422.343341300868.2529884886890.086554439951894161112123WETL
2023-03-02 07:00:13FORECAST2023158-12622.74812.45217.6161.556844644680.007874020.237874026.676.90787402TT-9.252-144.25266422.3216632408168.2289553382790.07535175398752161112123WETL
2023-03-02 03:00:16FORECAST2023158-1262313.9118.455162.4408353246500.286.747.02TT-9-14266422.7154533974868.6662513545240.079569825464863161112123WETL
2023-03-01 23:00:06FORECAST2023158-12623.7212.27217.996166.159668075430.027559070.147559076.877.01755907TT-8.28-138.2866424.3624269857170.5119200116310.092600937695457161112123WETL
2023-03-01 19:00:06FORECAST2023158-12624.76415.22419.994165.059659620820.015748040.135748046.766.89574804TT-7.236-136.23666423.8768812833569.9649737457640.11419463698501161112123WETL
2023-03-01 15:00:06FORECAST2023158-12625.57416.03420.804165.774390289260.023622060.303622066.777.07362206TT-6.426-134.42666424.1925190260870.3202562068120.13325157709943161112123WETL
2023-03-01 11:00:08FORECAST2023158-12625.57416.41220.993164.204795250450.082677210.292677216.496.78267721TT-6.426-130.42666423.4986046894169.5405016718730.13325157709943161112123WETL
2023-03-01 07:00:20FORECAST2023158-12626.79815.47621.137163.705263521790.094488240.234488246.456.68448824TT-5.202-125.20266423.2771819099169.2927026073240.16599431493517161112123WETL
2023-03-01 03:00:13FORECAST2023158-12626.09615.02620.561164.834592526820.035433090.295433096.576.86543309TT-5.904-127.90466423.7773689727869.8531699367170.14662997520537161112123WETL
2023-02-28 23:00:03FORECAST2023158-12629.01215.81822.415160.550858414080.023622060.053622066.526.57362206TF-2.988-129.98866421.8724509219467.7319841367680.23726693545187161111121.5WETL
2023-02-28 19:00:08FORECAST2023158-12629.98417.623.792159.19064304710.015748040.065748046.366.42574804TF-2.016-128.01666421.2632332623167.061164995130.27318731936198162111122WETL
2023-02-28 15:00:07FORECAST2023158-12626.16815.29620.732160.50110339310.051181130.171181136.436.60118113TF-5.832-132.83266421.8502035500267.707423136380.14854345987067161112123WETL
2023-02-28 11:00:03FORECAST2023158-12627.53615.8921.713162.225731414020.031496080.181496086.36.48149608TF-4.464-132.46466422.6197127273568.5597920071760.18805009882929161112123WETL
2023-02-28 07:00:10FORECAST2023158-12626.83416.62821.731162.125498324540.03937010.16937016.366.5293701TF-5.166-132.16666422.5750820791168.5101957616060.16702989506386161112123WETL
2023-02-28 03:00:09FORECAST2023158-12625.8815.72820.804161.1116304401800.086.156.23TF-6.12-138.1266422.1229992103768.0089246490830.14098885856138161111121.5WETL
2023-02-27 23:00:03FORECAST2023158-12626.20417.76221.983156.358858972650.110236280.230236286.236.46023628TF-5.796-142.79666419.9881522570165.6688682689390.14950641840069161112123WETL
2023-02-27 19:00:02FORECAST2023158-12626.16817.3321.749155.0617429415800.036.236.26TF-5.832-143.83266419.4010239227165.0330537609390.14854345987067161111121.5WETL
2023-02-27 15:00:05FORECAST2023158-12628.29218.96823.63154.1792982643300.046.156.19TF-3.708-136.70866419.0004859083664.6012008897640.21242520890105161111121.5WETL
2023-02-27 11:00:04FORECAST2023158-12626.81618.0522.433157.7834635174900.176.316.48TF-5.184-139.18466420.630762143666.3685785130210.16651158661027161112123WETL
2023-02-27 07:00:12FORECAST2023158-12626.81618.03222.424157.5246425357400.216.336.54TF-5.184-135.18466420.5141860935766.2413468455960.16651158661027161112123WETL
2023-02-27 03:00:13FORECAST2023158-12625.35815.92620.642157.9139320905900.126.466.58TF-6.642-139.64266420.6894976947566.4327327701940.12796858362588161112123WETL
2023-02-26 23:00:03FORECAST2023158-12625.08815.58420.336153.6913073548400.116.696.8TT-6.912-143.91266418.7786030302664.3626309919550.12157128177274161112123WETL
2023-02-26 19:00:05FORECAST2023158-12625.48415.54820.516153.3217314349600.156.616.76TT-6.516-142.51666418.6103787387964.1820680648750.1310324220329161112123WETL
2023-02-26 15:00:05FORECAST2023158-12623.55812.07417.816153.6588685214900.166.536.69TT-8.442-153.44266418.763843779864.3467784129140.089539865043154161112123WETL
2023-02-26 11:00:05FORECAST2023158-12631.04615.94423.495159.214864549110.007874020.007874026.76.70787402TF-0.954-137.95466421.2741000838467.0730987828980.31528349803322162111122WETL
2023-02-26 07:00:16FORECAST2023158-12631.04618.2324.638155.495672722420.011811030.031811036.386.41181103TF-0.954-133.95466419.5976538366565.245619456080.31528349803322162111122WETL
2023-02-26 03:00:17FORECAST2023158-12630.99213.83822.415158.709447348780.177165450.567165456.26.76716545TT-1.008-134.00866421.0472092680566.8241698906790.31307742857425162113126WETL
2023-02-25 23:00:06FORECAST2023158-12618.06818.06818.068161.327579352090.011811030.301811036.346.64181103TT-13.932-147.93266422.2193882569968.1156318630190.023969227002445161112123WETL
2023-02-25 19:00:07FORECAST2023158-12618.08618.08618.086162.992610425450.011811030.261811036.496.75181103TT-13.914-152.91466422.9608041027268.9394855683490.024086993470554161112123WETL
2023-02-25 15:00:07FORECAST2023158-12621.05621.05621.056159.0720204233800.086.236.31TF-10.944-147.94466421.2100043272867.0027264108820.051296211584111161111121.5WETL
2023-02-25 11:00:08FORECAST2023158-12621.48821.48821.488160.0345064754200.046.566.6TF-10.512-138.51266421.6414333591667.4771786972220.056766067103021161111121.5WETL
2023-02-25 07:00:23FORECAST2023158-12620.73220.73220.732160.6725148140200.116.516.62TF-11.268-140.26866421.9268363086667.7920458572340.047474886296705161112123WETL
2023-02-25 03:00:15FORECAST2023158-12620.73220.73220.732162.3234247224500.066.796.85TT-11.268-150.26866422.6632015578168.608138381020.047474886296705161111121.5WETL