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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, March 6, 2023

[ Sunday, March 5, 2023 | Index | Today | Tuesday, March 7, 2023 ]

DAY 157 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/07/2023 07:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 28.02°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 15.21°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 21.61°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.198
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -123

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.12 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.86 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.07 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.93 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 161 in
SWE DAY: 65
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 430.48 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 78.25 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -127

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-03-07 07:00:12OBSERVATION2023157-12728.0200215.2099621.61499181.779492083330.120.866.076.93TT-3.97998-122.9799865430.47762983677 78.2520049049650.1984922205359916 1113124.5WETL
2023-03-07 03:00:10OBSERVATION2023157-12728.0200215.2099621.61499181.779492083330.120.866.076.93TT-3.97998-122.9799865430.47762983677 78.2520049049650.1984922205359916 1113124.5WETL
2023-03-06 11:00:01FORECAST2023157-12723.73812.34418.041164.517515494830.11811030.85811036.076.9281103TT-8.262-127.26265422.973619482269.5865689970670.083634491600888161113124.5WETL
2023-03-06 07:00:08FORECAST2023157-12725.64613.42419.535164.184445959770.07874020.81874026.076.8887402TT-6.354-125.35465422.8255697397369.4213819053410.12652605217334161113124.5WETL
2023-03-06 03:00:10FORECAST2023157-12725.6113.74819.679163.610127027190.106299270.836299276.076.90629927TT-6.39-122.3965422.5699900268769.1367297461720.12559635510196161113124.5WETL
2023-03-05 23:00:02FORECAST2023157-12725.77213.02819.4165.380054307750.086614220.836614226.076.90661422TT-6.228-124.22865423.3564371944670.0147105747570.1298175809819161113124.5WETL
2023-03-05 19:00:01FORECAST2023157-12725.62814.37820.003165.516280138830.106299270.856299276.076.92629927TT-6.372-124.37265423.4168211954570.0823771924760.12606060791276161113124.5WETL
2023-03-05 15:00:02FORECAST2023157-12723.77415.20619.49165.654098000290.125984320.875984326.076.94598432TT-8.226-126.22665423.4778896284570.1508478294650.084327502358333161113124.5WETL
2023-03-05 11:00:04FORECAST2023157-12724.13415.1719.652166.104251269110.062992160.812992166.076.88299216TT-7.866-125.86665423.6772080326470.3745854200480.091495324883982161113124.5WETL
2023-03-05 07:00:17FORECAST2023157-12723.61214.0918.851165.81760725070.03937010.66937016.076.7393701TT-8.388-129.38865423.5503144443570.2320996914450.081242524407672161113124.5WETL
2023-03-05 03:00:09FORECAST2023157-12725.3415.9820.66165.73970359950.007874020.667874026.076.73787402TT-6.66-125.6665423.5158115390270.1933850741770.11877502344759161113124.5WETL
2023-03-04 23:00:04FORECAST2023157-12725.39415.58420.489158.312427056080.019685050.669685056.076.73968505TT-6.606-124.60665420.1947769417266.5220549739320.12011798228615161113124.5WETL
2023-03-04 19:00:02FORECAST2023157-12725.64615.0820.363158.36370504240.027559070.677559076.076.74755907TT-6.354-124.35465420.2179208441266.5472668700870.12652605217334161113124.5WETL
2023-03-04 15:00:03FORECAST2023157-12725.53814.82820.183158.1508001612800.646.076.71TT-6.462-124.46265420.1218082285366.4426001365470.12375124379904161113124.5WETL
2023-03-04 11:00:03FORECAST2023157-12725.98814.7220.354161.2301083937100.656.076.72TT-6.012-126.01265421.5068665679167.9595977854380.13559675218607161113124.5WETL
2023-03-04 07:00:13FORECAST2023157-12725.21414.5419.877160.8454864713300.566.076.63TT-6.786-127.78665421.3344569128767.7697456892860.11568266715311161113124.5WETL
2023-03-04 03:00:16FORECAST2023157-12724.87215.15220.012161.2865967526600.666.076.73TT-7.128-126.12865421.5321737152667.9874897202850.1075777375915161113124.5WETL
2023-03-03 23:00:03FORECAST2023157-12724.74614.4519.598152.725740932750.031496080.721496086.37.02149608TT-7.254-130.25465417.655130945363.7866893279870.10469701788364161113124.5WETL
2023-03-03 19:00:05FORECAST2023157-12724.81814.79219.805152.77689078270.007874020.727874026.37.02787402TT-7.182-130.18265417.6785469490963.8116297495180.10633624784822161113124.5WETL
2023-03-03 15:00:04FORECAST2023157-12724.85414.50419.679152.08585548930.023622060.623622066.36.92362206TT-7.146-128.14665417.3619391335663.4748475618030.10716275615844161113124.5WETL
2023-03-03 11:00:03FORECAST2023157-12725.59215.78220.687158.376129445270.185039470.905039476.37.20503947TT-6.408-126.40865420.2235280437366.5533758734010.12513329302056161113124.5WETL
2023-03-03 07:00:08FORECAST2023157-12726.56414.30620.435157.897417129160.086614220.756614226.267.01661422TT-5.436-123.43665420.0073546194366.3180764696580.15185715585349161113124.5WETL
2023-03-03 03:00:06FORECAST2023157-12725.62814.10819.868157.7652501104700.776.216.98TT-6.372-125.37265419.947625281266.2531421357870.12606060791276161113124.5WETL
2023-03-02 23:00:03FORECAST2023157-12725.4313.80219.616155.575971969520.011811030.691811036.517.20181103TT-6.57-124.5765418.9553172415665.1793806916530.12101919332053161113124.5WETL
2023-03-02 19:00:03FORECAST2023157-12724.67413.56819.121155.407900539180.007874020.547874026.67.14787402TT-7.326-128.32665418.8789091918665.0970918576510.10307610878432161113124.5WETL
2023-03-02 15:00:06FORECAST2023157-12725.12414.2719.697157.032171424780.141732360.851732366.617.46173236TT-6.876-128.87665419.6159657425565.8932062650580.11350903146419161113124.5WETL
2023-03-02 11:00:04FORECAST2023157-12723.0912.95618.023161.446766994760.133858340.753858346.637.38385834TT-8.91-131.9165421.6039112703868.0665884269470.071878588483823161113124.5WETL
2023-03-02 07:00:12FORECAST2023157-12722.22611.85817.042161.503666297730.110236280.710236286.647.35023628TT-9.774-136.77465421.6293884856968.094692059310.058222461242407161113124.5WETL
2023-03-02 03:00:16FORECAST2023157-12723.10811.85817.483162.440835324650.125984320.755984326.717.46598432TT-8.892-134.89265422.0484856843268.5579085620630.072187120213424161113124.5WETL
2023-03-01 23:00:06FORECAST2023157-12723.59410.70617.15165.964969693330.062992160.692992166.757.44299216TT-8.406-132.40665423.6155614252670.3053438135670.080905056723154161113124.5WETL
2023-03-01 19:00:06FORECAST2023157-12724.0813.42418.752164.947259477050.055118140.635118146.697.32511814TT-7.92-130.9265423.1644561501769.7998173500670.090392357510698161113124.5WETL
2023-03-01 15:00:06FORECAST2023157-12724.49416.39420.444165.608173825060.125984320.795984326.77.49598432TT-7.506-129.50665423.4575425551970.1280303150120.099103489729892161113124.5WETL
2023-03-01 11:00:07FORECAST2023157-12725.66416.32220.993163.647947355420.086614220.576614226.577.14661422TT-6.336-126.33665422.5868320557669.1554676453550.126992688594161113124.5WETL
2023-03-01 07:00:20FORECAST2023157-12728.11215.29621.704163.131578107520.074803190.544803196.57.04480319TT-3.888-121.88865422.3567443249168.8997222260770.20170211966348161113124.5WETL
2023-03-01 03:00:13FORECAST2023157-12726.94215.15221.047164.607034545480.047244120.807244126.477.27724412TT-5.058-124.05865423.0133894391569.6309796086090.16320304289995161113124.5WETL
2023-02-28 23:00:03FORECAST2023157-12726.79814.97220.885160.39364004140.023622060.583622066.427.00362206TT-5.202-129.20265421.1316980868567.5468459929650.15881761926441161113124.5WETL
2023-02-28 19:00:08FORECAST2023157-12726.5116.77221.641159.090787184220.007874020.507874026.356.85787402TT-5.49-128.4965420.5457592721666.9049558895950.15028004519511161113124.5WETL
2023-02-28 15:00:07FORECAST2023157-12725.48415.0820.282160.173358047990.062992160.572992166.437.00299216TT-6.516-128.51665421.0327656725467.4382319260020.12237988425133161113124.5WETL
2023-02-28 11:00:03FORECAST2023157-12725.0715.06220.066162.037543346270.066929170.426929176.476.89692917TT-6.93-129.9365421.8682578478668.3584961174380.1122188691225161112123WETL
2023-02-28 07:00:10FORECAST2023157-12726.1516.05221.101161.882386506230.070866180.410866186.536.94086618TT-5.85-128.8565421.7988703527168.2818077583310.14004482236171161112123WETL
2023-02-28 03:00:09FORECAST2023157-12725.8813.80219.841161.111630440180.023622060.293622066.396.68362206TT-6.12-134.1265421.4537758883567.9011049885440.13268555880429161112123WETL
2023-02-27 23:00:03FORECAST2023157-12725.08814.12619.607155.495619074670.035433090.355433096.446.79543309TT-6.912-138.91265418.9187915571965.1400368351960.11264775727221161112123WETL
2023-02-27 19:00:02FORECAST2023157-12724.58412.86618.725155.0617429415800.236.486.71TT-7.416-140.41665418.7214374170364.9276758928880.1010756210073161112123WETL
2023-02-27 15:00:05FORECAST2023157-12725.50215.45820.48154.179298264330.015748040.155748046.486.63574804TF-6.498-135.49865418.3193744626764.4961876050280.12283581764249161112123WETL
2023-02-27 11:00:04FORECAST2023157-12726.615.99821.299157.783463517490.114173290.534173296.46.93417329TT-5.4-136.465419.9558575331266.2620897260360.15291463387573161113124.5WETL
2023-02-27 07:00:12FORECAST2023157-12726.31216.73621.524157.524642535740.11811030.53811036.456.9881103TT-5.688-131.68865419.8388376513666.1349628236490.14459072021106161113124.5WETL
2023-02-27 03:00:12FORECAST2023157-12724.31416.59220.453157.913932090590.051181130.531181136.57.03118113TT-7.686-134.68665420.0148167039766.3261912420340.095243665079472161113124.5WETL
2023-02-26 23:00:03FORECAST2023157-12724.47617.58221.029153.691307354840.086614220.636614226.617.24661422TT-7.524-138.52465418.0966468256164.2578202513030.098712452548284161113124.5WETL
2023-02-26 19:00:05FORECAST2023157-12724.54817.02420.786153.321731434960.110236280.670236286.547.21023628TT-7.452-138.45265417.9277820657164.0774111610870.10028337438424161113124.5WETL
2023-02-26 15:00:05FORECAST2023157-12721.23612.90217.069153.658868521490.153543390.603543396.547.14354339TT-10.764-146.76465418.081831383364.2419811597490.04516898386342161113124.5WETL
2023-02-26 11:00:05FORECAST2023157-12724.9815.27820.129159.1445531767300.216.947.15TT-7.02-139.0265420.569978110466.9314212459260.11009187738729161112123WETL
2023-02-26 07:00:16FORECAST2023157-12726.09617.22221.659155.3928432516100.26.656.85TT-5.904-134.90465418.8720623079365.0897207206930.13855127757726161112123WETL
2023-02-26 03:00:17FORECAST2023157-12723.4513.2818.365157.074695503090.295275750.485275756.557.03527575TT-8.55-134.5565419.6352213677765.9140746187140.078243185189164161112123WETL
2023-02-25 23:00:06FORECAST2023157-12724.69215.9820.336161.138033606690.15748040.33748046.747.0774804TT-7.308-136.30865421.4656086887267.9141394169490.10347962256815161112123WETL
2023-02-25 19:00:06FORECAST2023157-12725.03416.48420.759162.791753631960.188976480.418976486.777.18897648TT-6.966-140.96665422.2051580203668.7315180665910.11136458569268161112123WETL
2023-02-25 15:00:07FORECAST2023157-12728.54414.93621.74159.072020423380.082677210.252677216.516.76267721TT-3.456-139.45665420.5373050245366.8957187736560.21718805669031161112123WETL
2023-02-25 11:00:08FORECAST2023157-12728.90415.69222.298160.034506475420.035433090.035433097.017.04543309TT-3.096-130.09665420.970376605667.3697864608490.23060111035734161111121.5WETL
2023-02-25 07:00:22FORECAST2023157-12729.17416.3422.757160.672514814020.051181130.111181136.967.07118113TT-2.826-130.82665421.2568661495367.6844000669160.24095684229034161112123WETL
2023-02-25 03:00:15FORECAST2023157-12728.27415.33221.803162.3234247224500.137.177.3TT-3.726-140.72665421.9960349099368.4998416058740.20743043714303161112123WETL
2023-02-24 23:00:07FORECAST2023157-12714.86414.86414.864174.1259006760200.18.088.18TT-17.136-155.13665427.1910765103674.3850309581230.0063540809503824161112123WETL
2023-02-24 19:00:10FORECAST2023157-12717.47417.47417.474170.1284364637400.117.617.72TT-14.526-153.52665425.4489439108372.3809636226970.01520982466131161112123WETL
2023-02-24 15:00:11FORECAST2023157-12722.11822.11822.118169.1821725558300.027.667.68TT-9.882-139.88265425.0339575044971.9081683406130.056668872820943161111121.5WETL
2023-02-24 11:00:10FORECAST2023157-12724.04424.04424.044165.212352295290.007874021.067874025.66.66787402TT-7.956-145.95665423.2820722380969.9314268388780.089662532309408161114126WETL
2023-02-24 07:00:20FORECAST2023157-12724.04424.04424.044165.153349378620.007874021.067874025.66.66787402TT-7.956-145.95665423.2559007407369.9021296515960.089662532309408161114126WETL
2023-02-24 03:00:32FORECAST2023157-12724.04424.04424.044165.153349378620.007874021.067874025.66.66787402TT-7.956-145.95665423.2559007407369.9021296515960.089662532309408161114126WETL