MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, March 5, 2023

[ Saturday, March 4, 2023 | Index | Today | Monday, March 6, 2023 ]

DAY 156 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/06/2023 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 24.98°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 11.66°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 18.32°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.092
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -122

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.15 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.49 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.32 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.81 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 164 in
SWE DAY: 64
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 422.00 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 69.14 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -128

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-03-06 07:00:07FORECAST2023156-12824.9811.6618.32163.831022833580.145669371.485669375.326.80566937TT-7.02-122.0264422.0011886802869.1368863784790.092462711244968161114126WETL
2023-03-06 07:00:06OBSERVATION2023156-12827.8000613.0800220.44004163.11975250.139999999999991.485.326.8TT-4.19994-119.1999464421.68311796952 68.7848458366170.1830379082214216 1114126WETL
2023-03-06 03:00:09OBSERVATION2023156-12827.8000613.0800220.44004163.11975250.139999999999991.485.326.8TT-4.19994-119.1999464421.68311796952 68.7848458366170.1830379082214216 1114126WETL
2023-03-05 11:00:01FORECAST2023156-12825.57410.8518.212165.768111984820.15748041.49748045.326.8174804TT-6.426-121.42664422.864521515770.0974533570230.10807614057181161114126WETL
2023-03-05 07:00:16FORECAST2023156-12823.21610.02216.619165.599339971660.043307111.383307115.326.70330711TT-8.784-123.78464422.789471061770.0136573547860.055915734827595161114126WETL
2023-03-05 03:00:08FORECAST2023156-12824.72811.96618.347165.70033226870.074803191.414803195.326.73480319TT-7.272-122.27264422.8343847297970.0637980443590.086366602509534161114126WETL
2023-03-04 23:00:02FORECAST2023156-12826.5112.12819.319158.225241737170.043307111.403307115.326.72330711TT-5.49-121.4964419.4787052878866.3721195477670.13636985636139161114126WETL
2023-03-04 19:00:01FORECAST2023156-12826.5113.58620.048158.2249898820.043307111.403307115.326.72330711TT-5.49-121.4964419.4785911495866.3719958403570.13636985636139161114126WETL
2023-03-04 15:00:02FORECAST2023156-12827.42814.39620.912158.150800161280.027559071.387559075.326.70755907TT-4.572-120.57264419.4449659138666.33555698290.16865856854075161114126WETL
2023-03-04 11:00:03FORECAST2023156-12825.28614.05419.67161.230108393710.043307111.403307115.326.72330711TT-6.714-122.71464420.8352974877367.8513206298470.10028462303932161114126WETL
2023-03-04 07:00:12FORECAST2023156-12824.18812.12818.158160.845486471330.047244121.307244125.326.62724412TT-7.812-123.81264420.6622314296467.6616212544160.074320000379252161114126WETL
2023-03-04 03:00:15FORECAST2023156-12824.63814.05419.346161.286596752660.098425251.408425255.326.72842525TT-7.362-122.36264420.860700985267.879190168840.08426363350453161114126WETL
2023-03-03 23:00:02FORECAST2023156-12824.38613.49618.941152.57997860730.066929171.666929175.326.98692917TT-7.614-125.61464416.9018977597163.610882641520.078579259949111161115127.5WETL
2023-03-03 19:00:04FORECAST2023156-12824.36813.83819.103152.722424166680.090551231.700551235.327.02055123TT-7.632-125.63264416.9673731489563.6802680257190.078184596643291161115127.5WETL
2023-03-03 15:00:04FORECAST2023156-12824.87214.5419.706151.934580653030.074803191.584803195.326.90480319TT-7.128-124.12864416.6049422805763.2966972033790.089812331169581161115127.5WETL
2023-03-03 11:00:03FORECAST2023156-12826.1515.820.975157.342440850810.153543391.703543395.327.02354339TT-5.85-122.8564419.0781797918165.9387837157570.12494183473251161115127.5WETL
2023-03-03 07:00:07FORECAST2023156-12826.22215.58420.903157.448147149420.129921331.609921335.326.92992133TT-5.778-120.77864419.1261859323665.9906413968550.12717235194464161115127.5WETL
2023-03-03 03:00:06FORECAST2023156-12825.89815.83620.867157.765250110470.23622061.65622065.326.9762206TT-6.102-122.10264419.2701198121566.146255316010.11735018280339161115127.5WETL
2023-03-02 23:00:03FORECAST2023156-12825.19615.72820.462155.507250101930.244094621.584094625.617.19409462TT-6.804-120.80464418.2426767428165.0397685355440.097935687017099161115127.5WETL
2023-03-02 19:00:03FORECAST2023156-12824.56614.66619.616155.354201591490.149606381.529606385.617.13960638TT-7.434-124.43464418.1728226003164.964904982330.082609021590836161115127.5WETL
2023-03-02 15:00:05FORECAST2023156-12824.42215.18819.805156.111577332740.137795351.707795355.617.31779535TT-7.578-124.57864418.5182376011265.3355422144310.079373098444376161115127.5WETL
2023-03-02 11:00:04FORECAST2023156-12823.64814.3619.004160.620234935720.106299271.636299275.617.24629927TT-8.352-126.35264420.5607977933167.5505741463170.063596854114001161115127.5WETL
2023-03-02 07:00:12FORECAST2023156-12823.1812.1117.645160.826973854640.11811031.59811035.647.2381103TT-8.82-129.8264420.6538971511167.6524933189730.055310084168084161115127.5WETL
2023-03-02 03:00:16FORECAST2023156-12823.2712.23617.753161.687774117040.153543391.673543395.677.34354339TT-8.73-128.7364421.0410104675768.0771837944910.056833972920391161115127.5WETL
2023-03-01 23:00:06FORECAST2023156-12824.92613.38819.157165.566985570750.062992161.692992165.697.38299216TT-7.074-127.07464422.7750798558869.9975955461720.091130399648744161115127.5WETL
2023-03-01 19:00:05FORECAST2023156-12824.9814.93619.958164.632249200760.062992161.572992165.77.27299216TT-7.02-126.0264422.3587989724169.5338790445590.092462711244968161115127.5WETL
2023-03-01 15:00:06FORECAST2023156-12824.96215.54820.255164.774492894160.153543391.663543395.717.37354339TT-7.038-125.03864422.4222103735869.6044055015390.0920170207266161115127.5WETL
2023-03-01 11:00:07FORECAST2023156-12825.5216.08820.804163.021506689810.11811031.40811035.657.0581103TT-6.48-123.4864421.6391385536768.7362476464110.10658307947132161114126WETL
2023-03-01 07:00:20FORECAST2023156-12826.94215.22421.083162.720415449720.066929171.386929175.586.96692917TT-5.058-121.05864421.5042876677368.5873528031320.15099882915955161114126WETL
2023-03-01 03:00:13FORECAST2023156-12826.00615.54820.777164.339948390550.212598541.612598545.627.23259854TT-5.994-121.99464422.2284210576269.3889969256320.12056289673006161115127.5WETL
2023-02-28 23:00:03FORECAST2023156-12824.8915.2620.075160.23492751090.007874021.447874025.536.97787402TT-7.11-127.1164420.3871543536567.3607052043710.090250108868424161114126WETL
2023-02-28 19:00:08FORECAST2023156-12825.05217.0621.056159.038628514760.035433091.335433095.516.84543309TT-6.948-125.94864419.8469435920666.7718820949950.094261396203894161114126WETL
2023-02-28 15:00:07FORECAST2023156-12825.12415.11620.12159.76500715710.059055151.399055155.546.93905515TT-6.876-124.87664420.1751489301967.1292856760670.096085671805452161114126WETL
2023-02-28 11:00:03FORECAST2023156-12824.69215.85420.273161.581788801790.082677211.262677215.576.83267721TT-7.308-126.30864420.9933931408768.0248655374390.085520769102822161114126WETL
2023-02-28 07:00:10FORECAST2023156-12825.30417.20421.254161.394802511980.059055151.269055155.66.86905515TT-6.696-125.69664420.9093522454967.9325817811070.10075928793708161114126WETL
2023-02-28 03:00:08FORECAST2023156-12823.93613.29818.617160.911781153150.055118141.045118145.616.65511814TT-8.064-131.06464420.6920737175667.6943108989050.069156053554682161114126WETL
2023-02-27 23:00:03FORECAST2023156-12824.65615.81820.237155.220009207990.082677211.032677215.736.76267721TT-7.344-135.34464418.1115523924564.8992790123250.084681133622544161114126WETL
2023-02-27 19:00:02FORECAST2023156-12824.11614.64819.382155.061742941580.031496080.951496085.766.71149608TT-7.884-135.88464418.0392635697964.8218968271450.072815519795774161113124.5WETL
2023-02-27 15:00:04FORECAST2023156-12825.59216.10620.849154.055219512070.023622060.833622065.796.62362206TT-6.408-132.40864417.5788488044164.330201216160.10857714749225161113124.5WETL
2023-02-27 11:00:03FORECAST2023156-12824.29615.63819.967156.980316016420.062992161.172992165.656.82299216TT-7.704-133.70464418.9136243366465.7611931319490.076620916725077161114126WETL
2023-02-27 07:00:12FORECAST2023156-12825.37617.47421.425156.699560295480.094488241.174488245.76.87448824TT-6.624-128.62464418.785940134765.6235726770360.1026742782989161114126WETL
2023-02-27 03:00:12FORECAST2023156-12825.14215.78220.462157.523940635870.074803191.144803195.846.98480319TT-6.858-129.85864419.1605993419666.0278293676370.096545756784963161114126WETL
2023-02-26 23:00:03FORECAST2023156-12824.85415.22420.039152.948033714760.015748041.105748046.057.15574804TT-7.146-134.14664417.0710265724763.7901934336580.089376128613154161114126WETL
2023-02-26 19:00:05FORECAST2023156-12825.91615.60220.759152.40757324190.03937011.04937016.057.0993701TT-6.084-134.08464416.8226195909963.5269239241950.11788139553908161114126WETL
2023-02-26 15:00:05FORECAST2023156-12823.84614.93619.391152.064380510780.007874020.877874026.116.98787402TT-8.154-139.15464416.6647038932463.3598600782340.067380101645081161113124.5WETL
2023-02-26 11:00:05FORECAST2023156-12824.54815.22419.886159.1445531767300.916.247.15TT-7.452-135.45264419.8948420811866.8239770242220.082199202289109161113124.5WETL
2023-02-26 07:00:16FORECAST2023156-12825.5216.50221.011155.392843251610.015748040.715748046.136.84574804TT-6.48-132.4864418.1904619241764.9838048990990.10658307947132161113124.5WETL
2023-02-26 03:00:17FORECAST2023156-12824.4415.54819.994154.188475816110.094488240.794488245.956.74448824TT-7.56-128.5664417.6398719591264.3952552974110.079772279273704161113124.5WETL
2023-02-25 23:00:06FORECAST2023156-12824.40417.25820.831159.259874110930.133858340.753858346.176.92385834TT-7.596-131.59664419.9469748571766.880702349020.078975426274323161113124.5WETL
2023-02-25 19:00:06FORECAST2023156-12824.72815.96220.345160.688786976850.055118140.725118146.276.99511814TT-7.272-137.27264420.5916737944167.5843658745890.086366602509534161113124.5WETL
2023-02-25 15:00:06FORECAST2023156-12825.05215.81820.435158.1184001613100.656.036.68TT-6.948-138.94864419.4302791740766.3196447222140.094261396203894161113124.5WETL
2023-02-25 11:00:08FORECAST2023156-12827.5916.01621.803159.6575779675300.766.257.01TT-4.41-130.4164420.126646507867.0764028210550.17482813941937161113124.5WETL
2023-02-25 07:00:22FORECAST2023156-12826.97817.52822.253160.145188243490.059055150.849055156.177.01905515TT-5.022-131.02264420.3466878651967.3164994556980.15226325241055161113124.5WETL
2023-02-25 03:00:15FORECAST2023156-12823.41414.50418.959162.323424722450.055118140.875118146.427.29511814TT-8.586-139.58664421.3263282057368.3911325200880.059340511371175161113124.5WETL
2023-02-24 23:00:07FORECAST2023156-12824.13412.84818.491174.1259006760200.867.328.18TT-7.866-140.86664426.5411485199974.2718616614260.073189443430405161113124.5WETL
2023-02-24 19:00:10FORECAST2023156-12825.14215.02620.084170.128436463740.019685050.819685056.97.71968505TT-6.858-141.85864424.7923832224472.2692639793380.096545756784963161113124.5WETL
2023-02-24 15:00:10FORECAST2023156-12830.0214.28822.154169.182172555830.019685050.739685056.947.67968505TT-1.98-132.9864424.3758168677671.7968226778440.28365348613106162113126WETL
2023-02-24 11:00:10FORECAST2023156-12828.3118.39223.351165.103012163680.228346581.258346585.46.65834658TT-3.69-140.6964422.5685748005769.7673445452850.20394538039916161114126WETL
2023-02-24 07:00:20FORECAST2023156-12828.3118.39223.351165.044009247010.228346581.258346585.46.65834658TT-3.69-140.6964422.5422963651869.7380746685480.20394538039916161114126WETL
2023-02-24 03:00:31FORECAST2023156-12828.3118.39223.351165.044009247010.228346581.258346585.46.65834658TT-3.69-140.6964422.5422963651869.7380746685480.20394538039916161114126WETL
2023-02-23 23:00:13FORECAST2023156-12820.96620.96620.966167.432575510870.019685051.049685055.376.41968505TT-11.034-146.03464423.6029634775170.9249351690760.026950418680407161114126WETL
2023-02-23 19:00:11FORECAST2023156-12820.96620.96620.966167.432575510870.019685051.049685055.376.41968505TT-11.034-146.03464423.6029634775170.9249351690760.026950418680407161114126WETL
2023-02-23 15:00:07FORECAST2023156-12820.96620.96620.966167.623871959590.019685051.049685055.376.41968505TT-11.034-146.03464423.6876326122271.0201614798540.026950418680407161114126WETL
2023-02-23 11:00:08FORECAST2023156-12818.96818.96818.968158.4474941673300.395.355.74TF-13.032-135.03264419.5793994617166.481304448940.012943185563616161112123WETL
2023-02-23 07:00:24FORECAST2023156-12818.96818.96818.968158.9140787506600.395.355.74TF-13.032-135.03264419.7906064571466.7106374933180.012943185563616161112123WETL
2023-02-23 03:00:26FORECAST2023156-12818.96818.96818.968158.9140787506600.395.355.74TF-13.032-135.03264419.7906064571466.7106374933180.012943185563616161112123WETL