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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, March 30, 2023

[ Wednesday, March 29, 2023 | Index | Today | Friday, March 31, 2023 ]

DAY 181 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/31/2023 04:00:10 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 34.18°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.53°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.36°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.348
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 12

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.04 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.39 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.43 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 156 in
SWE DAY: 88
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 433.99 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 67.58 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -104

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 2.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-03-31 04:00:10OBSERVATION2023181-10434.1799822.5300228.355155.7149116666700.044.394.43TF2.1799812.1799888433.98896413822 67.578553215090.3476915153998416 2111122WETL
2023-03-31 00:00:01FORECAST2023181-10330.8321.25426.04215800.044.394.43TF-1.178.8389435.5556507427368.8177928173510.23088534822256161111121.5WETL
2023-03-30 12:00:01FORECAST2023181-10330.63222.1926.41115800.044.394.43TF-1.3688.63289435.5556507427368.8177928173510.22473719161912161111121.5WETL
2023-03-30 08:00:03FORECAST2023181-10330.57822.02826.303158.029296301060.007874020.047874024.394.43787402TF-1.4228.57889435.5677307591668.832461983320.22307664976867161111121.5WETL
2023-03-30 04:00:12FORECAST2023181-10329.3922.11825.754157.509527500.044.394.43TF-2.617.3989435.3532760950668.5722888133110.18834760370029161111121.5WETL
2023-03-30 00:00:04FORECAST2023181-10431.2821.59626.438159.938992004.394.39TF-0.728.2888435.7381918752169.6915271844230.24520102336236161111121.5WETL
2023-03-29 20:00:02FORECAST2023181-10431.71222.42427.068160004.394.39TF-0.2889.71288435.7633185740169.7221309718420.25938017611765162111122WETL
2023-03-29 16:00:02FORECAST2023181-10431.42422.22626.825160004.394.39TF-0.5769.42488435.7633185740169.7221309718420.24988068140457162111122WETL
2023-03-29 12:00:02FORECAST2023181-10431.26222.22626.744159.9381064004.394.39TF-0.7389.26288435.7378271041369.6910829538860.24461939245068161111121.5WETL
2023-03-29 08:00:03FORECAST2023181-10432.0921.75826.924159.95891103004004.394.39TF0.0900000000000039.0988435.7463961367269.7015190112950.27212512316581162111122WETL
2023-03-29 04:00:18FORECAST2023181-10432.75622.24427.5159.68995395004.394.39TF0.7569.75688435.6355828960169.5666261716460.29531096031895162111122WETL
2023-03-29 00:00:03FORECAST2023181-10431.56822.7327.149162.485418711080.043307110.153307114.394.54330711TF-0.4328.56888436.7836574603570.9709754686020.25460725644944162112124WETL
2023-03-28 20:00:02FORECAST2023181-10431.3722.78427.077162.162146978160.015748040.075748044.394.46574804TF-0.6310.3788436.6513088588870.808313725380.24812028164116161111121.5WETL
2023-03-28 16:00:04FORECAST2023181-10431.42423.70227.563162.1680084300200.074.394.46TF-0.5769.42488436.6537095256770.811262447360.24988068140457162111122WETL
2023-03-28 12:00:05FORECAST2023181-10430.25422.60426.429162.438260604980.059055150.129055154.394.51905515TF-1.7467.25488436.7643575328870.9472425318950.21326104343327161112123WETL
2023-03-28 08:00:05FORECAST2023181-10431.53223.19827.365162.31719139330.03937010.10937014.394.4993701TF-0.4689.53288436.714798157570.8863194768150.25342124507594162112124WETL
2023-03-28 04:00:14FORECAST2023181-1043222.38827.194161.95203924940.023622060.073622064.394.46362206TF01088436.5652317178770.7026295420950.26906262993935162111122WETL
2023-03-28 00:00:06FORECAST2023181-10431.02823.03627.032165.106861128980.023622060.053622064.394.44362206TF-0.9728.02888437.852881141472.2925148415380.23712614412672161111121.5WETL
2023-03-27 20:00:05FORECAST2023181-10431.17222.3726.771165.131071990580.035433090.045433094.394.43543309TF-0.8286.17288437.8627230305472.3047408387450.24172239871261161111121.5WETL
2023-03-27 16:00:04FORECAST2023181-10431.62222.1926.906165.337362727380.011811030.111811034.394.50181103TF-0.3787.62288437.9465571527572.4089287751740.25639170188796162112124WETL
2023-03-27 12:00:06FORECAST2023181-10431.35221.52426.438165.059229022690.007874020.037874024.394.42787402TF-0.6487.35288437.8335165813172.2684626872030.24753495300325161111121.5WETL
2023-03-27 08:00:03FORECAST2023181-10432.4522.02827.239165.0286625858800.044.394.43TF0.459.4588437.8210887372772.2530287262050.28454548704472162111122WETL
2023-03-27 04:00:13FORECAST2023181-10431.56821.66826.618164.7047540656100.034.394.42TF-0.4326.56888437.6893332001272.0895139818660.25460725644944162111122WETL
2023-03-27 00:00:04FORECAST2023181-10431.58621.48826.537169.4005334746200.034.374.4TF-0.4142.58688439.5888600211174.4665873970770.2552013489584162111122WETL
2023-03-26 20:00:03FORECAST2023181-10432.68421.18226.933168.9518664633900.024.354.37TF0.6846.68488439.408343556674.2388597834730.29276111712714162111122WETL
2023-03-26 16:00:03FORECAST2023181-10432.43220.326.366168.9721092645900.024.354.37TF0.4323.43288439.4164924674474.2491315778720.28391809871636162111122WETL
2023-03-26 12:00:05FORECAST2023181-10431.02820.94825.988169.2487054252900.054.354.4TF-0.9727.02888439.5277966257474.3895105773380.23712614412672161111121.5WETL
2023-03-26 08:00:07FORECAST2023181-10431.47822.40626.942169.2833021342800.064.344.4TF-0.5228.47888439.5417130731374.4070726147780.25164767913448162111122WETL
2023-03-26 04:00:08FORECAST2023181-1043221.23626.618169.07850828781004.374.37TF0488439.4593174059974.3031258401820.26906262993935162111122WETL
2023-03-26 00:00:05FORECAST2023181-10432.3621.6527.005165.41134838973004.194.19TF0.36-0.6488437.9766133525272.4463021778070.28141518037781162111122WETL
2023-03-25 20:00:07FORECAST2023181-10433.72822.62228.175165.28709470085004.234.23TF1.7286.72888437.9261328673672.3835381952260.33068595615375162111122WETL
2023-03-25 16:00:05FORECAST2023181-10433.06221.93827.5165.32684685514004.224.22TF1.0626.06288437.9422846887772.4036170321330.30625994514022162111122WETL
2023-03-25 12:00:03FORECAST2023181-10433.49422.42427.959165.4956478661004.214.21TF1.494-0.50688438.0108525894272.4888898216680.32201444216367162111122WETL
2023-03-25 08:00:05FORECAST2023181-10435.11423.82829.471165.26667375368004.184.18TF3.1147.11488437.9178349347272.3732239570750.38378570211888162111122WETL
2023-03-25 04:00:13FORECAST2023181-10432.10820.42626.267165.47110334254004.214.21TF0.1080.10888438.0008842952172.4764895893390.2727396921573162111122WETL
2023-03-25 00:00:06FORECAST2023181-10432.70221.6527.176163.12345811886004.114.11TF0.702-0.29888437.0445543783371.2922190622090.29339761983283162111122WETL
2023-03-24 20:00:06FORECAST2023181-10433.33222.6427.986156.54495056542004.114.11TF1.3324.33288434.3341735487367.9928217270570.31606695353031162111122WETL
2023-03-24 16:00:04FORECAST2023181-10431.94622.51427.23157.08530329379004.194.19TF-0.0539999999999980.94688434.5585129921368.2627558122650.26723346243682162111122WETL
2023-03-24 12:00:04FORECAST2023181-10431.35221.75826.555160.64083237751004.234.23TF-0.648-5.64888436.0270160886970.0437428035690.24753495300325161111121.5WETL
2023-03-24 08:00:04FORECAST2023181-10433.29622.58627.941161.13185504147004.314.31TF1.2962.29688436.2287778357770.2903521951530.31475165286359162111122WETL
2023-03-24 04:00:16FORECAST2023181-10432.41422.56827.491161.15662001363004.214.21TF0.414-2.58688436.2389471255570.302794237060.28329137244945162111122WETL
2023-03-24 00:00:09FORECAST2023181-10433.0820.28226.681160.46763961859004.244.24TF1.085.0888435.9557909426969.9567967506280.30690955247613162111122WETL
2023-03-23 20:00:05FORECAST2023181-10433.11620.40826.762154.92030215994004.464.46TF1.1161.11688433.6578070830667.1823985073270.30821058435133162111122WETL
2023-03-23 16:00:05FORECAST2023181-10433.22421.48827.356154.57755863667004.364.36TF1.224-4.77688433.5147607386867.0116533479470.31212809756893162111122WETL
2023-03-23 12:00:04FORECAST2023181-10431.6421.43426.537158.764493157500.214.294.5TF-0.36-9.3688435.2537040718769.1028337218960.25698795999644162112124WETL
2023-03-23 08:00:06FORECAST2023181-10432.10822.5527.329158.4287824307400.214.264.47TF0.108-2.89288435.1149555747168.9347326291060.2727396921573162112124WETL
2023-03-23 04:00:17FORECAST2023181-10434.1622.76628.463160.5906590382600.24.644.84TF2.163.1688436.0063856354870.0185528140910.34693295585479162112124WETL
2023-03-23 00:00:06FORECAST2023181-10431.6421.21826.429163.698911102020.043307110.303307114.434.73330711TF-0.36-10.3688437.2794970893771.5821775207660.25698795999644162112124WETL
2023-03-22 20:00:06FORECAST2023181-10431.8221.30826.564163.148233222170.023622060.253622064.434.68362206TF-0.18-8.1888437.0546764939671.3046982914780.26298992053897162112124WETL
2023-03-22 16:00:05FORECAST2023181-10426.11420.4823.297163.899194032260.125984320.125984324.614.73598432TF-5.886-14.88688437.3611869532871.6831460426360.1110341975626161112123WETL
2023-03-22 12:00:07FORECAST2023181-10429.64223.34226.492167.428888471370.055118140.265118145.055.31511814TF-2.358-9.35888438.7940527384673.466800517850.19542210908423161112123WETL
2023-03-22 08:00:05FORECAST2023181-10429.87622.24426.06166.93512517690.062992160.222992165.045.26299216TF-2.124-4.12488438.5943834373473.2168083009990.20213343933697161112123WETL
2023-03-22 04:00:19FORECAST2023181-10428.11220.06624.089168.852870576940.015748040.265748045.255.51574804TF-3.888-14.88888439.3684858897774.1886300835310.15494621641421161112123WETL
2023-03-22 00:00:06FORECAST2023181-10433.15225.48429.318165.582825358560.035433090.035433094.654.68543309TF1.1526.15288438.0462530566572.5329362188490.30951402808788162111122WETL
2023-03-21 20:00:07FORECAST2023181-10433.85426.81630.335164.295405674710.035433090.035433094.444.47543309TF1.85411.85488437.5226683448871.8829642876020.33539350714966162111122WETL
2023-03-21 16:00:05FORECAST2023181-10433.9827.55430.767165.109889883710.086614220.086614224.474.55661422TF1.984.9888437.8541123850872.2940442810290.34012702895524162111122WETL
2023-03-21 12:00:07FORECAST2023181-10435.61825.73630.677169.422855652790.15748040.60748044.545.1474804TF3.618-7.38288439.5978357443274.4779206705880.40371312364379162113126WETL
2023-03-21 08:00:06FORECAST2023181-10430.77625.17827.977168.093685616190.161417410.511417414.294.80141741TF-1.224-9.22488439.0624899110673.8036321449720.22919934180583161113124.5WETL
2023-03-21 04:00:16FORECAST2023181-10436.33819.38227.86165.548534019910.145669370.235669374.254.48566937TF4.338-5.66288438.0323291888972.5156099505490.43260723566162112124WETL
2023-03-21 00:00:07FORECAST2023181-10421.6521.6521.65168.430300262960.019685050.099685054.074.16968505TF-10.35-19.3588439.1982381325273.9742911236240.046376319920508161112123WETL
2023-03-20 20:00:09FORECAST2023181-10422.65822.65822.658165.2158400924100.074.314.38TF-9.342-15.34288437.8971771039672.3475499893270.057387720426749161111121.5WETL
2023-03-20 16:00:05FORECAST2023181-10425.26825.26825.268168.285455399050.03937010.40937014.234.6393701TF-6.732-19.73288439.1398400675273.9008479696270.095411469292481161112123WETL
2023-03-20 12:00:07FORECAST2023181-10419.65219.65219.652170.5330594908700.494.264.75TF-12.348-28.34888440.0436060138275.0419824429320.029559960180936161112123WETL
2023-03-20 08:00:05FORECAST2023181-10419.65219.65219.652170.5330594908700.494.264.75TF-12.348-28.34888440.0436060138275.0419824429320.029559960180936161112123WETL