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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, March 19, 2023

[ Saturday, March 18, 2023 | Index | Today | Monday, March 20, 2023 ]

DAY 170 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/20/2023 04:00:13 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.39°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.93°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.16°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.416
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 17 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -60

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.22 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.69 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.40 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.09 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 153 in
SWE DAY: 77
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 425.79 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 65.13 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -115

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-03-20 04:00:13FORECAST2023170-11536.39227.93232.162152.96239784370.216535550.686535555.46.08653555TF4.392-59.60877425.7932022130365.1303491960540.41602072064047172113126WETL
2023-03-20 04:00:11OBSERVATION2023170-11539.5700829.1000234.33505152.645692083330.0900000000000320.560000000000035.45.96TF7.57008-49.4299277425.6546981877 64.9743559933840.5505851422316817 3113127.5WETL
2023-03-20 00:00:01FORECAST2023170-11536.527.48231.991156.25912565440.11811030.58811035.45.9881103TF4.5-52.577427.2283538081866.7583290208350.42052277025445172113126WETL
2023-03-19 12:00:02FORECAST2023170-11535.22226.34830.785156.279406491360.102362260.572362265.45.97236226TF3.222-53.77877427.2371454458666.7683675213430.36807013918937172113126WETL
2023-03-19 08:00:02FORECAST2023170-11534.7926.81630.803156.306397063840.102362260.572362265.45.97236226TF2.79-54.2177427.2488450167166.7817276142470.3508299291971172113126WETL
2023-03-19 04:00:12FORECAST2023170-11534.77226.54630.659156.446581133010.15748040.62748045.46.0274804TF2.772-54.22877427.3095975362966.8511256198760.35011791893411172113126WETL
2023-03-19 00:00:05FORECAST2023170-11536.527.44631.973159.322391689150.181102460.651102465.46.05110246TF4.5-60.577428.5511451647268.2777934087650.42052277025445172113126WETL
2023-03-18 20:00:02FORECAST2023170-11536.96828.47232.72159.659059399750.224409570.694409575.46.09440957TF4.968-60.03277428.6958995633368.4451840928110.44014461598425172113126WETL
2023-03-18 16:00:02FORECAST2023170-11536.39227.93232.162159.594685760370.216535550.686535555.46.08653555TF4.392-60.60877428.6682309006468.4131716060420.41602072064047172113126WETL
2023-03-18 12:00:04FORECAST2023170-11537.38228.63433.008159.218853097990.19685050.66685055.46.0668505TF5.382-59.61877428.5066025876168.2263298089140.45762742815658172113126WETL
2023-03-18 08:00:04FORECAST2023170-11536.42829.0332.729159.297298001020.177165450.647165455.46.04716545TF4.428-61.57277428.5403508688568.2653199778160.41752021075835172113126WETL
2023-03-18 04:00:11FORECAST2023170-11536.3228.9432.63159.647951282980.204724520.674724525.46.07472452TF4.32-59.6877428.6911254671568.4396599140240.41302542542543172113126WETL
2023-03-18 00:00:06FORECAST2023170-11536.75229.6633.206162.176815047010.208661530.208661535.45.60866153TF4.752-63.24877429.7745239638769.6994634848050.43106707354293172112124WETL
2023-03-17 20:00:05FORECAST2023170-11535.8729.9332.9162.377421366380.220472560.220472565.45.62047256TF3.87-65.1377429.8601688059569.7995857588280.39442593827103172112124WETL
2023-03-17 16:00:03FORECAST2023170-11535.90628.50832.207162.523624170030.244094620.244094625.45.64409462TF3.906-65.09477429.9225596725469.8725725104360.3959056776766172112124WETL
2023-03-17 12:00:05FORECAST2023170-11535.7828.52632.153162.132320798420.188976480.188976485.45.58897648TF3.78-65.2277429.7555221236669.6772601778480.39073329072239172112124WETL
2023-03-17 08:00:04FORECAST2023170-11535.9627.93231.946162.282558072690.232283590.232283595.45.63228359TF3.96-65.0477429.8196742653969.7522362497590.39812809527689172112124WETL
2023-03-17 04:00:15FORECAST2023170-11535.99628.05832.027162.432614441790.169291430.169291435.45.56929143TF3.996-64.00477429.8837247278469.8271373135180.39961154963177172112124WETL
2023-03-17 00:00:06FORECAST2023170-11536.84228.65232.747164.948458676180.15748040.15748045.45.5574804TF4.842-63.15877430.9539665870571.0851925489170.43484524383465172112124WETL
2023-03-16 20:00:09FORECAST2023170-11536.35626.70831.532164.769689499050.059055150.059055155.45.45905515TF4.356-64.64477430.8781435689870.9956579277870.41452245182996172111122WETL
2023-03-16 16:00:05FORECAST2023170-11537.47228.5833.026164.88532529430.129921330.129921335.45.52992133TF5.472-60.52877430.9271931765271.0535704250720.46144010998439172112124WETL
2023-03-16 12:00:03FORECAST2023170-11538.3928.43633.413164.91751127410.188976480.188976485.45.58897648TF6.39-59.6177430.9408430443671.0696913412380.5004706490565173112125WETL
2023-03-16 08:00:06FORECAST2023170-11536.6828.97632.828165.048349407890.165354420.165354425.45.56535442TF4.68-64.3277430.9963191719671.1352310802090.42804905486906172112124WETL
2023-03-16 04:00:10FORECAST2023170-11535.36626.76231.064164.440777598910.082677210.082677215.45.48267721TF3.366-67.63477430.7385491565370.8309819651260.37387845587292172111122WETL
2023-03-16 00:00:03FORECAST2023170-11536.08626.631.343168.308568336860.007874020.007874025.365.36787402TF4.086-62.91477432.372734340172.7720359046730.4033264854607172111122WETL
2023-03-15 20:00:05FORECAST2023170-11535.76226.72631.244166.755002602410.051181130.051181135.365.41118113TF3.762-65.23877431.7182638808571.991180216960.38999593013023172111122WETL
2023-03-15 16:00:04FORECAST2023170-11536.1426.97831.559166.730933273980.047244120.047244125.365.40724412TF4.14-64.8677431.7081038680171.9790950598550.40555966407726172111122WETL
2023-03-15 12:00:04FORECAST2023170-11535.40226.76231.082167.652386753910.102362260.102362265.365.46236226TF3.402-64.59877432.0966198080772.4420296191180.3753350786394172112124WETL
2023-03-15 08:00:04FORECAST2023170-11533.63827.03230.335167.767596461780.074803190.084803195.365.44480319TF1.638-70.36277432.1451321934272.4999501507490.30641139259709172111122WETL
2023-03-15 04:00:17FORECAST2023170-11534.68225.41230.047167.270328232780.098425250.118425255.325.43842525TF2.682-67.31877431.935641362372.2500165061110.34656580527271172112124WETL
2023-03-15 00:00:07FORECAST2023170-11534.64624.0829.363167.597264981130.192913490.292913495.325.61291349TF2.646-72.35477432.0734041672372.4143208095130.34514870546978172112124WETL
2023-03-14 20:00:06FORECAST2023170-11534.14223.0928.616167.859335214880.200787510.330787515.365.69078751TF2.142-77.85877432.1837513018372.5460771841960.32554466815988172112124WETL
2023-03-14 16:00:06FORECAST2023170-11534.64623.91829.282167.65436510390.251968640.281968645.355.63196864TF2.646-76.35477432.0974529694572.4430241406040.34514870546978172112124WETL
2023-03-14 12:00:05FORECAST2023170-11533.56625.48429.525167.336503666360.125984320.155984325.365.51598432TF1.566-79.43477431.9635352369772.2832676979160.30371902727752172112124WETL
2023-03-14 08:00:06FORECAST2023170-11532.82825.17829.003167.31756515410.125984320.125984325.365.48598432TF0.828-80.17277431.9555528669672.2737513604930.27675334629048172112124WETL
2023-03-14 04:00:17FORECAST2023170-11532.28825.30428.796166.94683286688005.355.35TF0.288-79.71277431.7992160207672.0875115490660.25779442388481172111122WETL
2023-03-14 00:00:06FORECAST2023170-11535.49224.9830.236175.456766309520.11811030.11811035.65.7181103TF3.492-76.50877435.3509982429776.3852783613360.37898437619852172112124WETL
2023-03-13 20:00:06FORECAST2023170-11536.21225.21430.713167.043473605260.11811030.11811035.615.7281103TF4.212-75.78877431.8399833571572.1360508616140.40854201081063172112124WETL
2023-03-13 16:00:04FORECAST2023170-11534.48423.84629.165166.747694215380.090551230.090551235.555.64055123TF2.484-78.51677431.7151789702971.9875106510750.33879882301543172112124WETL
2023-03-13 12:00:05FORECAST2023170-11532.3624.92628.643171.273360039210.074803190.074803195.555.62480319TF0.36-80.6477433.6145674292874.266623925560.26028283111599172111122WETL
2023-03-13 08:00:05FORECAST2023170-11532.86425.17829.021171.48910292593005.725.72TF0.864-81.13677433.7045690373974.3756074791010.27804112109363172111122WETL
2023-03-13 04:00:12FORECAST2023170-11531.124.15227.626166.645812004920.106299270.106299275.815.91629927TF-0.9-91.977431.6721679619671.9363589499460.21858120697624171112123WETL
2023-03-13 00:00:08FORECAST2023170-11536.46425.46630.965174.729499145460.346456880.386456885.796.17645688TF4.464-83.53677435.0504506930376.01614735260.41902090103135172112124WETL
2023-03-12 20:00:05FORECAST2023170-11536.89626.34831.622167.939849957220.342519870.342519875.826.16251987TF4.896-76.10477432.2176380433772.5865652818670.43711502772265172112124WETL
2023-03-12 16:00:04FORECAST2023170-11534.725.4330.065171.805464997110.598425521.078425525.876.94842552TT2.7-70.377433.8364568652374.5354742044290.34727516224011172114128WETL
2023-03-12 12:00:08FORECAST2023170-11534.3427.66231.001171.707376415950.169291430.459291435.966.41929143TF2.34-70.6677433.7955761620174.4859002836250.33319259594124172112124WETL
2023-03-12 08:00:06FORECAST2023170-11533.56626.43830.002172.509421025180.204724520.484724525.946.42472452TF1.566-80.43477434.1295482975874.8914370267390.30371902727752172112124WETL
2023-03-12 04:00:12FORECAST2023170-11535.3325.68230.506172.746307693950.059055150.539055156.096.62905515TT3.33-75.6777434.2280580516775.0112937255410.37242363137236172113126WETL
2023-03-11 23:00:04FORECAST2023170-11530.5624.27827.419175.812677220350.255905650.585905656.026.60590565TT-1.44-92.4477435.4978783688576.5660479198120.20195665032154171113124.5WETL
2023-03-11 19:00:04FORECAST2023170-11530.5624.27827.419175.917529952170.27559070.56559076.076.6355907TT-1.44-89.4477435.5411245073276.6193188159190.20195665032154171113124.5WETL
2023-03-11 15:00:06FORECAST2023170-11529.10223.9926.546175.324290533340.295275750.635275755.886.51527575TT-2.898-94.89877435.2962931745376.3180137726180.16099836269715171113124.5WETL
2023-03-11 11:00:05FORECAST2023170-11525.8819.47222.676175.978080307470.177165450.517165456.146.65716545TT-6.12-103.1277435.5660930417176.6500849005050.090984719797364171113124.5WETL
2023-03-11 07:00:16FORECAST2023170-11527.19421.99224.593175.577852656610.19685050.56685056.036.5968505TT-4.806-97.80677435.4009840164976.4467698181890.11619408016771171113124.5WETL
2023-03-11 03:00:13FORECAST2023170-11529.323.59426.447176.605263953570.173228440.593228446.366.95322844TT-2.7-88.777435.824492621876.9688995569050.16621922204895171113124.5WETL
2023-03-10 23:00:07FORECAST2023170-11531.53224.49428.013178.073803294320.200787510.570787516.597.16078751TT-0.468-93.46877436.4279227151377.7163800617220.23242920597439171113124.5WETL
2023-03-10 19:00:09FORECAST2023170-11531.26224.36827.815177.906275412180.204724520.574724526.57.07472452TT-0.738-94.73877436.3591983635177.6310397226980.22371781713923171113124.5WETL
2023-03-10 15:00:07FORECAST2023170-11533.9824.45829.219178.761332600540.059055150.599055156.687.27905515TT1.98-95.0277436.7096592763978.0668006517770.31934122430636172113126WETL
2023-03-10 11:00:08FORECAST2023170-11531.49621.70426.6182.729289138540.074803190.804803196.617.41480319TT-0.504-95.50477438.3260745011780.0950120044870.23125691589579171113124.5WETL
2023-03-10 07:00:17FORECAST2023170-11531.29823.03627.167179.367256011550.062992160.562992166.467.02299216TT-0.702-87.70277436.9575477343878.3758763306540.22486851879174171113124.5WETL
2023-03-10 03:00:17FORECAST2023170-11531.47822.92827.203181.839224775050.090551230.620551236.677.29055123TT-0.522-93.52277437.9649074947679.6391992575230.23067200791653171113124.5WETL
2023-03-09 23:00:08FORECAST2023170-11522.31622.31622.316183.9333410050400.387.17.48TT-9.684-97.68477438.8133526204680.7124060251060.043059723797634171112123WETL
2023-03-09 19:00:07FORECAST2023170-11525.2525.2525.25184.7601117955700.427.197.61TT-6.75-93.7577439.1470836913381.1368642775090.080442346156559171112123WETL
2023-03-09 15:00:04FORECAST2023170-11527.80627.80627.806179.842973764250.007874020.107874026.86.90787402TT-4.194-86.19477437.1519007716378.6186978214640.12948607659084171112123WETL
2023-03-09 11:00:07FORECAST2023170-11524.81824.81824.818181.513430682330.011811030.381811036.566.94181103TT-7.182-104.18277437.832503711979.4724798129810.073763399623144171112123WETL
2023-03-09 07:00:14FORECAST2023170-11528.18428.18428.184180.125006202920.011811030.381811036.586.96181103TT-3.816-77.81677437.2670134287578.7627235061840.1382019012199171112123WETL
2023-03-09 03:00:12FORECAST2023170-11528.4928.4928.49178.7533489241500.466.146.6TT-3.51-81.5177436.7063905387978.0627298053880.14554345832687171112123WETL