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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, March 18, 2023

[ Friday, March 17, 2023 | Index | Today | Sunday, March 19, 2023 ]

DAY 169 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/20/2023 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 40.50°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.00°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.75°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.651
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 17 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 8
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -72

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.47 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.92 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.39 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 152 in
SWE DAY: 76
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 424.88 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 64.74 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -116

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 5.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-03-20 04:00:12FORECAST2023169-11640.49624.99832.747152.3677120833300.475.926.39TF8.496-71.50476424.8767976177164.7375055703040.65139603549345173112125WETL
2023-03-19 04:00:10OBSERVATION2023169-11646.8800629.7538.31503155.9822995833300.475.926.39TF14.88006-65.1199476426.45806273314 66.5199093009690.8638329556454217 5112127WETL
2023-03-19 00:00:03FORECAST2023169-11639.39824.67432.036158.76039600.475.926.39TF7.398-72.60276427.6635613801767.8960363594850.60536497602612173112125WETL
2023-03-18 12:00:02FORECAST2023169-11639.45225.44832.45158.742093600.475.926.39TF7.452-72.54876427.6556472283167.8869527808850.60766962736588173112125WETL
2023-03-18 08:00:02FORECAST2023169-11638.22824.7131.469158.805266400.475.926.39TF6.228-73.77276427.682962260467.9183067565040.55465737821966173112125WETL
2023-03-18 04:00:11FORECAST2023169-11640.38824.45832.423159.0463677166700.475.926.39TF8.388-71.61276427.787170810568.0379956731980.64695350714302173112125WETL
2023-03-18 00:00:05FORECAST2023169-11640.62226.31233.467161.5515912005.925.92TF8.622-76.37876428.8662075322569.2840182387440.65655284230332173111122.5WETL
2023-03-17 20:00:03FORECAST2023169-11640.20826.40233.305161.6994864005.925.92TF8.208-76.79276428.9296937948969.3577111883430.63950487382157173111122.5WETL
2023-03-17 16:00:02FORECAST2023169-11640.38826.36633.377161.7051936005.925.92TF8.388-76.61276428.9321432193669.360555260550.64695350714302173111122.5WETL
2023-03-17 12:00:04FORECAST2023169-11640.40626.81633.611161.5569048005.925.92TF8.406-76.59476428.8684888888769.2866656311390.64769533992723173111122.5WETL
2023-03-17 08:00:04FORECAST2023169-11640.31626.72633.521161.566056005.925.92TF8.316-76.68476428.8724178197669.2912250743230.64398061479502173111122.5WETL
2023-03-17 04:00:14FORECAST2023169-11640.49627.8634.178161.92476106667005.925.92TF8.496-75.50476429.0263505515669.4699893043660.65139603549345173111122.5WETL
2023-03-17 00:00:06FORECAST2023169-11640.31627.4133.863164.529156005.925.92TF8.316-75.68476430.1397904375270.7705366827020.64398061479502173111122.5WETL
2023-03-16 20:00:06FORECAST2023169-11639.27226.07832.675164.6192904005.925.92TF7.272-76.72876430.1781932945670.8156289257050.59997322963544173111122.5WETL
2023-03-16 16:00:05FORECAST2023169-11640.65826.20433.431164.538012005.925.92TF8.658-74.34276430.1435640334970.7749669006660.65802093293723173111122.5WETL
2023-03-16 12:00:03FORECAST2023169-11640.53226.38433.458164.486844005.925.92TF8.532-74.46876430.1217598628770.749370815570.6528723149414173111122.5WETL
2023-03-16 08:00:06FORECAST2023169-11639.34425.89832.621164.577864005.925.92TF7.344-76.65676430.1605441649770.7949035357490.60305663217084173111122.5WETL
2023-03-16 04:00:09FORECAST2023169-11637.68826.09631.892164.22098431667005.925.92TF5.688-79.31276430.0084237068870.6164066056030.5308949409608173111122.5WETL
2023-03-16 00:00:03FORECAST2023169-11637.63425.46631.55168.40556403602005.885.88TF5.634-75.36676431.7834651275372.7147379862280.52851121182169173111122.5WETL
2023-03-15 20:00:04FORECAST2023169-11636.9526.29431.622166.6663256005.885.88TF4.95-77.0576431.0479944856971.8411853981790.49825762247267172111122WETL
2023-03-15 16:00:03FORECAST2023169-11637.86825.9731.919166.6681952005.885.88TF5.868-77.13276431.0487868279471.8421233437630.53883223334993173111122.5WETL
2023-03-15 12:00:04FORECAST2023169-11637.00426.4231.712167.37050946045005.885.88TF5.004-75.99676431.3461637523972.1946271810470.50064797785015173111122.5WETL
2023-03-15 08:00:04FORECAST2023169-11636.91425.98831.451167.479903184150.007874020.007874025.885.88787402TF4.914-80.08676431.3924359821272.2495634126590.49666408167517172111122WETL
2023-03-15 04:00:16FORECAST2023169-11636.5924.38630.488166.902714303880.015748040.015748045.845.85574804TF4.59-78.4176431.1481469160471.9597959873770.48232765932208172111122WETL
2023-03-15 00:00:06FORECAST2023169-11636.0525.73630.893166.75790276390.098425250.098425255.845.93842525TF4.05-82.9576431.0868007492171.887130802140.45849342995873172112124WETL
2023-03-14 20:00:06FORECAST2023169-11635.79825.14230.47166.962880539710.125984320.125984325.886.00598432TF3.798-88.20276431.1736283604771.9899910038210.44741643189085172112124WETL
2023-03-14 16:00:06FORECAST2023169-11636.2324.47630.353166.455783553880.027559070.027559075.875.89755907TF4.23-86.7776430.9587420416471.7355750859350.46642586420264172111122WETL
2023-03-14 12:00:05FORECAST2023169-11636.19425.03430.614166.692039274260.031496080.031496085.885.91149608TF4.194-88.80676431.0588916902571.8540857031490.46483820801605172111122WETL
2023-03-14 08:00:06FORECAST2023169-11635.13224.15229.642166.65661816146005.885.88TF3.132-88.86876431.0438803827771.8363153837860.41836041200902172111122WETL
2023-03-14 04:00:17FORECAST2023169-11635.7824.49430.137166.95096566688005.875.87TF3.78-88.2276431.1685825143871.9840112159940.4466266808039172111122WETL
2023-03-14 00:00:06FORECAST2023169-11635.65425.57430.614174.90542530187006.126.12TF3.654-88.34676434.5034755920675.9970151935690.44110452139576172111122WETL
2023-03-13 20:00:06FORECAST2023169-11636.30225.8831.091166.53551710383006.136.13TF4.302-87.69876430.9925480988771.7755668655440.46960275468675172111122WETL
2023-03-13 16:00:04FORECAST2023169-11634.724.38629.543166.31589238306006.076.07TF2.7-89.376430.8994133374271.6654204565520.39973857319398172111122WETL
2023-03-13 12:00:05FORECAST2023169-11633.63824.18828.913170.83200444218006.076.07TF1.638-89.36276432.8041192259873.9367952182060.3549975540408172111122WETL
2023-03-13 08:00:05FORECAST2023169-11634.4325.73630.083171.49874612593006.246.24TF2.43-89.5776433.0834764262174.2732731749560.3882118128878172111122WETL
2023-03-13 04:00:12FORECAST2023169-11632.75623.64828.202165.98090537571006.336.33TF0.756-99.24476430.7572575802271.4974796103250.31927369265847172111122WETL
2023-03-13 00:00:07FORECAST2023169-11634.10622.7328.418172.74510908330.035433090.035433096.316.34543309TF2.106-95.89476433.6044212702174.9030430513230.37450937784264172111122WETL
2023-03-12 20:00:04FORECAST2023169-11635.47423.03629.255166.06518015917006.346.34TF3.474-88.52676430.7930319839971.5397224677370.43323580399585172111122WETL
2023-03-12 16:00:04FORECAST2023169-11635.97825.3430.659168.424102289670.366141930.476141936.396.86614193TT3.978-81.02276431.7912868999572.7240598726280.45532489984188172112124WETL
2023-03-12 12:00:07FORECAST2023169-11637.79626.67232.234170.796156138390.129921330.289921336.486.76992133TT5.796-81.20476432.7890857870573.9187122710740.53565899354796173112125WETL
2023-03-12 08:00:06FORECAST2023169-11635.2423.73829.489171.340249542520.129921330.279921336.466.73992133TT3.24-89.7676433.0171110144474.1932598573940.42304635819389172112124WETL
2023-03-12 04:00:11FORECAST2023169-11636.0524.29630.173172.498485662950.161417410.481417416.617.09141741TT4.05-86.9576433.5014704187374.7783471798940.45849342995873172112124WETL
2023-03-11 23:00:04FORECAST2023169-11635.38423.10829.246173.987905618660.019685050.329685056.546.86968505TT3.384-98.61676434.1222359257275.5320186112070.42931114659164172112124WETL
2023-03-11 19:00:04FORECAST2023169-11636.7724.90830.839173.950378251120.027559070.287559076.596.87755907TT4.77-96.2376434.1066239648775.5130114400060.49029070495806172112124WETL
2023-03-11 15:00:06FORECAST2023169-11634.98823.41429.201172.974160340260.015748040.335748046.46.73574804TT2.988-100.01276433.6999790266475.0188897117230.4121305714334172112124WETL
2023-03-11 11:00:05FORECAST2023169-11630.84822.08226.465174.563255847710.169291430.339291436.666.99929143TT-1.152-105.15276434.3614042422675.8235409391150.24778990619596171112123WETL
2023-03-11 07:00:16FORECAST2023169-11631.4622.74827.104174.096765239360.200787510.370787516.556.92078751TT-0.54-100.5476434.1675147801675.5871598952360.26975830168657172112124WETL
2023-03-11 03:00:13FORECAST2023169-11633.78225.68229.732175.391182788850.318897810.418897816.887.29889781TT1.782-94.21876434.7049538282676.243416016110.36096356731945172112124WETL
2023-03-10 23:00:07FORECAST2023169-11633.45824.20628.832176.381082186540.232283590.372283597.117.48228359TT1.458-100.54276435.1147669685576.7460134732550.34758986495685172112124WETL
2023-03-10 19:00:08FORECAST2023169-11633.42224.11628.769176.221559114440.232283590.372283597.027.39228359TT1.422-101.57876435.048794882776.6649769250890.3461151731956172112124WETL
2023-03-10 15:00:07FORECAST2023169-11632.95425.03428.994178.390537283220.318897810.538897817.27.73889781TT0.954-105.04676435.9435086391777.7681967312760.32716315894966172113126WETL
2023-03-10 11:00:08FORECAST2023169-11631.3725.7928.58182.080873959380.468504190.728504197.137.85850419TT-0.63-102.6376437.4545078435379.6520991056220.26646759802381172113126WETL
2023-03-10 07:00:17FORECAST2023169-11632.19824.11628.157178.835603499520.311023790.501023796.987.48102379TT0.198-94.80276436.1264918528877.9949443726390.29748454811376172113126WETL
2023-03-10 03:00:16FORECAST2023169-11630.30824.06227.185181.054754911990.476378210.526378217.197.71637821TT-1.692-100.69276437.0357865290679.127407217790.22922801625652171113124.5WETL
2023-03-09 23:00:07FORECAST2023169-11629.4822.94626.213183.933341005040.381889970.381889977.628.00188997TT-2.52-95.5276438.2076732985480.6010014038480.20233935297618171112123WETL
2023-03-09 19:00:07FORECAST2023169-11631.11825.0728.094184.760111795570.346456880.416456887.718.12645688TT-0.882-94.88276438.5426749600781.0251936527520.25736279518809172112124WETL
2023-03-09 15:00:04FORECAST2023169-11633.38624.3528.868179.751457102370.03937010.10937017.317.4193701TT1.386-89.61476436.5023830312578.4619393785220.34464281001223172112124WETL
2023-03-09 11:00:07FORECAST2023169-11630.3822.26226.321181.37084292450.255905650.365905657.087.44590565TT-1.62-104.6276437.1648867109979.2889639997640.23165706096612171112123WETL
2023-03-09 07:00:14FORECAST2023169-11635.34825.6130.479179.999213637710.263779670.383779677.097.47377967TT3.348-81.65276436.6039188581378.5883620656040.42774321522321172112124WETL
2023-03-09 03:00:12FORECAST2023169-11635.49225.57430.533178.753348924150.295275750.595275756.527.11527575TT3.492-85.50876436.0926895294177.9530286947220.4340215390194172113126WETL
2023-03-08 23:00:07FORECAST2023169-11626.6926.6926.69176.262825662150.011811030.311811036.386.69181103TT-5.31-95.3176435.0658635679976.6859384616390.1264989209423171112123WETL
2023-03-08 19:00:03FORECAST2023169-11626.3326.3326.33175.625683067120.011811030.291811036.436.72181103TT-5.67-86.6776434.8021288658776.3624208811040.11838608299769171112123WETL
2023-03-08 15:00:06FORECAST2023169-11628.41828.41828.418173.33820876359006.456.45TF-3.582-84.58276433.8517418168175.2030837954880.17075357135111171111121.5WETL
2023-03-08 11:00:06FORECAST2023169-11623.88223.88223.882175.103014518980.019685050.019685056.326.33968505TF-8.118-105.11876434.5854599113376.0972240965930.07280229190834171111121.5WETL
2023-03-08 07:00:11FORECAST2023169-11621.72221.72221.722178.009496737780.019685050.019685056.616.62968505TF-10.278-114.27876435.7866843066477.5741683584490.044975387343758171111121.5WETL
2023-03-08 03:00:09FORECAST2023169-11624.42224.42224.422180.0047445399200.057.17.15TT-7.578-110.57876436.6061848088578.5911847610680.081481678802475171111121.5WETL