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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, March 17, 2023

[ Thursday, March 16, 2023 | Index | Today | Saturday, March 18, 2023 ]

DAY 168 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/18/2023 04:00:10 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 42.45°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.24°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.35°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.750
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 17 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 10
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -89

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.47 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.66 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.90 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.56 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 159 in
SWE DAY: 75
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 427.25 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 68.06 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -117

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 9.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-03-18 04:00:10OBSERVATION2023168-11742.4500824.2400233.34505159.302502916670.470000000000030.660000000000035.96.56TT10.45008-88.5499275427.25057009768 68.0620851891330.7500680788006417 4113129WETL
2023-03-18 00:00:03FORECAST2023168-11737.421.30829.354161.857221600.195.96.09TF5.4-93.675428.3543267628869.3322411901780.54044067008844173112125WETL
2023-03-17 12:00:02FORECAST2023168-11737.36421.63229.498161.854761600.195.96.09TF5.364-93.63675428.3532673703869.3310159708140.53881878070783173112125WETL
2023-03-17 08:00:01FORECAST2023168-11737.05821.09229.075161.867455200.195.96.09TF5.058-93.94275428.3587337646169.3373381471710.5250093558847173112125WETL
2023-03-17 04:00:13FORECAST2023168-11737.7622.15429.957162.2247826666700.195.96.09TF5.76-93.2475428.5125416030969.5153539315030.55661816019753173112125WETL
2023-03-17 00:00:05FORECAST2023168-11737.74222.02829.885164.823076800.195.96.09TF5.742-93.25875429.6267616542970.812404731480.55581129478696173112125WETL
2023-03-16 20:00:03FORECAST2023168-11738.19220.78629.489164.845905600.195.96.09TF6.192-92.80875429.636518720770.8238210073460.57590498942911173112125WETL
2023-03-16 16:00:02FORECAST2023168-11738.60621.63230.119164.827996800.195.96.09TF6.606-92.39475429.6288645181570.8148651059860.59421977117935173112125WETL
2023-03-16 12:00:02FORECAST2023168-11738.69622.33430.515164.788144800.195.96.09TF6.696-92.30475429.6118305651670.7949365429650.59817556563779173112125WETL
2023-03-16 08:00:05FORECAST2023168-11738.323.57630.938164.820715200.195.96.09TF6.3-92.775429.625752270370.8112237575280.58070028797316173112125WETL
2023-03-16 04:00:09FORECAST2023168-11737.5823.16230.371164.3942667166700.195.96.09TF5.58-94.4275429.4433823622670.5980299397680.54853949148805173112125WETL
2023-03-16 00:00:03FORECAST2023168-11738.28222.38830.335168.5686128360200.155.96.05TF6.282-89.71875431.2200651959772.690168217140.57990188312179173112125WETL
2023-03-15 20:00:03FORECAST2023168-11737.582330.29166.823273600.155.96.05TF5.58-91.4275430.4795058026871.8140003757130.54853949148805173112125WETL
2023-03-15 16:00:03FORECAST2023168-11736.93222.29829.615166.849546400.155.96.05TF4.932-92.06875430.4906778870171.8271743348760.51931342248779173112125WETL
2023-03-15 12:00:03FORECAST2023168-11737.88623.21630.551167.5326726604500.155.96.05TF5.886-90.11475430.7809047505972.1698763039510.56225946309719173112125WETL
2023-03-15 08:00:04FORECAST2023168-11736.12222.94629.534167.5950284063400.155.96.05TF4.122-93.87875430.807371577672.201173677210.4826528155852172112124WETL
2023-03-15 04:00:15FORECAST2023168-11736.5920.96628.778166.9786529580300.115.96.01TF4.59-92.4175430.5455675355771.8919189041390.50383649317318173112125WETL
2023-03-15 00:00:06FORECAST2023168-11735.6921.52428.607166.4462579443800.15.916.01TF3.69-96.3175430.3191038385471.6250045559040.46314067519385172112124WETL
2023-03-14 20:00:05FORECAST2023168-11735.09620.85827.977166.5073405507100.125.936.05TF3.096-100.90475430.3451019675771.6556184476450.43646506224061172112124WETL
2023-03-14 16:00:05FORECAST2023168-11735.27620.58827.932166.4623711512800.115.936.04TF3.276-99.72475430.3259623729471.6330800645540.4445237876704172112124WETL
2023-03-14 12:00:05FORECAST2023168-11734.57421.9228.247166.679890666600.125.936.05TF2.574-102.42675430.4185213847371.7421120852850.41325501398582172112124WETL
2023-03-14 08:00:06FORECAST2023168-11734.4322.44228.436166.7204797614600.135.926.05TF2.43-100.5775430.4357872156171.7624609510890.40690164838415172112124WETL
2023-03-14 04:00:16FORECAST2023168-11735.25820.55227.905167.0351960668800.125.926.04TF3.258-100.74275430.56960116971.9202777517010.44371682579524172112124WETL
2023-03-14 00:00:06FORECAST2023168-11735.81621.68628.751174.9890653018700.16.196.29TF3.816-101.18475433.9162289121275.9305953166430.46882466114956172112124WETL
2023-03-13 20:00:06FORECAST2023168-11736.12221.50628.814166.6423795038300.116.196.3TF4.122-100.87875430.40256326571.7233072870290.4826528155852172112124WETL
2023-03-13 16:00:04FORECAST2023168-11734.3420.3927.365166.3673555830600.066.186.24TF2.34-100.6675430.2855152506971.5854633179530.40294308515068172111122WETL
2023-03-13 12:00:05FORECAST2023168-11733.65620.85827.257170.8659524421800.076.176.24TF1.656-100.34475432.1898508330473.846530498430.37320963265225172111122WETL
2023-03-13 08:00:05FORECAST2023168-11734.62821.70428.166171.5619189259300.156.266.41TF2.628-101.37275432.4825269899674.1975322323350.41564348955786172112124WETL
2023-03-13 04:00:12FORECAST2023168-11732.39620.04826.222165.9885805757100.246.266.5TF0.396-108.60475430.1241776812871.3957017246110.32047689886982172112124WETL
2023-03-13 00:00:07FORECAST2023168-11732.55820.26426.411172.5689556468400.236.256.48TF0.558-107.44275432.9051032440974.7059815610190.32708400335513172112124WETL
2023-03-12 20:00:04FORECAST2023168-11733.54819.18426.366166.1464585591700.256.266.51TF1.548-101.45275430.1914439887471.4747849211850.3685781476221172112124WETL
2023-03-12 16:00:03FORECAST2023168-11733.09822.60427.851166.418758826960.106299270.346299276.326.66629927TT1.098-93.90275430.3073982798271.6112231357850.34949175811158172112124WETL
2023-03-12 12:00:07FORECAST2023168-11734.4322.76628.598170.278493620350.15748040.43748046.376.8074804TT2.43-95.5775431.9424026265573.5505016500040.40690164838415172112124WETL
2023-03-12 08:00:06FORECAST2023168-11733.51220.15626.834170.651951091410.149606380.409606386.376.77960638TT1.512-102.48875432.0997523709273.7386658082140.36703851235916172112124WETL
2023-03-12 04:00:11FORECAST2023168-11732.9920.60626.798171.685849504160.322834820.602834826.57.10283482TT0.99-100.0175432.5345895143474.2600684407010.34496494902445172113126WETL
2023-03-11 23:00:04FORECAST2023168-11730.27219.65224.962173.929220557020.311023790.541023796.487.02102379TT-1.728-110.72875433.4741889534575.3938278162610.23964459657363171113124.5WETL
2023-03-11 19:00:04FORECAST2023168-11733.1720.76826.969173.888733949010.255905650.495905656.527.01590565TT1.17-109.8375433.4572791938775.3733375000030.35252160830484172113126WETL
2023-03-11 15:00:06FORECAST2023168-11732.1822.92827.554172.930223010460.318897810.608897816.286.88889781TT0.18-111.8275433.056436269774.8885461002360.31175540480917172113126WETL
2023-03-11 11:00:05FORECAST2023168-11730.93821.8326.384173.484099901790.165354420.485354426.516.99535442TT-1.062-113.06275433.288182938675.1686104151840.26374292931747172112124WETL
2023-03-11 07:00:15FORECAST2023168-11732.6322.1927.41172.848831029410.165354420.475354426.416.88535442TT0.63-109.3775433.0223537084874.8474076481160.33003812807638172112124WETL
2023-03-11 03:00:12FORECAST2023168-11734.2522.78428.517173.557156145990.098425250.308425256.847.14842525TT2.25-104.7575433.318725944375.2055657796950.39899444308023172112124WETL
2023-03-10 23:00:07FORECAST2023168-11733.96222.33428.148174.864120336680.141732360.411732367.017.42173236TT1.962-111.03875433.8641787289575.8672779590350.38642993143116172112124WETL
2023-03-10 19:00:07FORECAST2023168-11733.72822.83828.283174.739472080220.141732360.401732366.937.33173236TT1.728-112.27275433.8122356876675.8041210460020.37630754233041172112124WETL
2023-03-10 15:00:07FORECAST2023168-11732.23419.8526.042176.067338071110.224409570.524409577.077.59440957TT0.234-114.76675434.3647353010476.4774426964160.31392616107767172113126WETL
2023-03-10 11:00:07FORECAST2023168-11732.77420.87626.825178.750516651930.255905650.495905657.067.55590565TT0.774-111.22675435.4754835465277.8414676731890.33597810309444172113126WETL
2023-03-10 07:00:16FORECAST2023168-11732.7224.47628.598176.546918954090.185039470.365039476.977.33503947TT0.72-104.2875434.5638221211476.7209038843980.33374571166063172112124WETL
2023-03-10 03:00:16FORECAST2023168-11733.20624.1728.688177.664699084180.051181130.531181136.887.41118113TT1.206-107.79475435.0269022232377.2889236770120.35404006215207172113126WETL
2023-03-09 23:00:07FORECAST2023168-11732.6322.65827.644180.6709169545400.587.217.79TT0.63-102.3775436.2658314233878.8205477991950.33003812807638172113126WETL
2023-03-09 19:00:07FORECAST2023168-11733.81824.2629.039181.81836769910.074803190.744803197.217.95480319TT1.818-103.18275436.736232400379.4066688900760.3801911380455172113126WETL
2023-03-09 15:00:04FORECAST2023168-11731.3723.2727.32179.381355847150.062992160.652992166.97.55299216TT-0.63-99.6375435.7355330762678.1628307139990.28000898152259172113126WETL
2023-03-09 11:00:07FORECAST2023168-11727.60820.24623.927179.034084485360.106299270.496299276.867.35629927TT-4.392-112.39275435.5924296808177.9858918566570.15626623507747171113124.5WETL
2023-03-09 07:00:14FORECAST2023168-11732.28823.03627.662178.086846823180.106299270.516299276.867.37629927TT0.288-93.71275435.2014501618677.5036539921990.31610337072951172113126WETL
2023-03-09 03:00:12FORECAST2023168-11731.3724.49427.932176.650337620810.15748040.61748046.376.9874804TT-0.63-97.6375434.6067221910876.7734242073280.28000898152259172113126WETL
2023-03-08 23:00:07FORECAST2023168-11730.30821.18225.745176.133605506610.110236280.490236286.366.85023628TT-1.692-98.69275434.392259123676.5110748036030.24091579062572171113124.5WETL
2023-03-08 19:00:03FORECAST2023168-11731.15422.20826.681175.496462911580.110236280.480236286.46.88023628TT-0.846-89.84675434.1274334164176.1878290174610.2718154848594172112124WETL
2023-03-08 15:00:06FORECAST2023168-11733.60225.3429.471173.3382087635900.26.426.62TT1.602-90.39875433.2271725055875.0948220698320.37089155298222172112124WETL
2023-03-08 11:00:06FORECAST2023168-11730.5621.27225.916174.8929032315900.076.426.49TF-1.44-106.4475433.8761707121375.881863138850.24991582474269172111122WETL
2023-03-08 07:00:11FORECAST2023168-11729.53419.4924.512177.7819047396900.156.636.78TT-2.466-113.46675435.0753827128977.3485302440480.21440653099722171112123WETL
2023-03-08 03:00:09FORECAST2023168-11730.93822.22626.582180.004744539920.051181130.201181137.127.32118113TT-1.062-112.06275435.9921022932978.4806469947280.26374292931747172112124WETL
2023-03-07 23:00:06FORECAST2023168-11723.48623.48623.486183.7349441237600.36.767.06TT-8.514-120.51475437.5188878314380.3875084087990.06963922070186171112123WETL
2023-03-07 19:00:08FORECAST2023168-11724.42224.42224.422183.4919679060100.36.686.98TT-7.578-119.57875437.4198765397680.2630339474830.085031048268357171112123WETL
2023-03-07 15:00:05FORECAST2023168-11729.44429.44429.444186.7130883124400.387.177.55TT-2.556-110.55675438.7275114757481.9161685952680.21143793274946171112123WETL
2023-03-07 11:21:29FORECAST2023168-11726.18626.18626.186183.5634180540400.136.997.12TT-5.814-112.81475437.448998371780.2996333654230.12070493308771171112123WETL
2023-03-07 11:00:04FORECAST2023168-11726.18626.18626.186204.5634180540400.136.997.12TT-5.814-112.81475445.7832055764191.1909362437940.12070493308771171112123WETL
2023-03-07 07:00:20FORECAST2023168-11723.64823.64823.648206.1648160861500.127.147.26TT-8.352-128.35275446.4006917163892.0321165084390.072138120016034171112123WETL
2023-03-07 03:00:15FORECAST2023168-11721.95621.95621.956202.5909262724400.076.86.87TT-10.044-111.04475445.0191684300490.1568455412320.049200011163994171111121.5WETL