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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, March 16, 2023

[ Wednesday, March 15, 2023 | Index | Today | Friday, March 17, 2023 ]

DAY 167 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/17/2023 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.67°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 17.94°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 25.30°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.315
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 17 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -109

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.19 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.78 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.97 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 162 in
SWE DAY: 74
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 427.94 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 69.49 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -118

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-03-17 04:00:12OBSERVATION2023167-11832.6699617.9400225.30499162.3881266666700.196.786.97TT0.66996-109.3300474427.93817546396 69.4920786427440.3153634606481117 2112124WETL
2023-03-17 00:00:03FORECAST2023167-11833.24218.53625.889164.98376400.196.786.97TT1.242-108.75874429.055034251670.7871145139780.34115565593951172112124WETL
2023-03-16 12:00:01FORECAST2023167-11833.1717.81625.493164.986322400.196.786.97TT1.17-108.8374429.0561314593570.7883932326490.3378650020968172112124WETL
2023-03-16 08:00:02FORECAST2023167-11832.91817.70825.313164.99311200.196.786.97TT0.918-109.08274429.0590432453670.7917867767950.32644628913429172112124WETL
2023-03-16 04:00:08FORECAST2023167-11832.21617.7824.998164.5572171166700.196.786.97TT0.216-109.78474428.872003572670.5739834071560.29550903933972172112124WETL
2023-03-16 00:00:02FORECAST2023167-11833.58417.85225.718168.7326456360200.156.786.93TT1.584-106.41674430.6551724458372.6655866036190.35694791350725172112124WETL
2023-03-15 20:00:02FORECAST2023167-11834.1618.0526.105166.971759200.156.786.93TT2.16-106.8474429.9054692783371.7820724951050.38409482840082172112124WETL
2023-03-15 16:00:02FORECAST2023167-11833.56617.72625.646166.9803200.156.786.93TT1.566-107.43474429.9091221842771.7863627932480.3561103175439172112124WETL
2023-03-15 12:00:03FORECAST2023167-11834.68218.08626.384167.6797806604500.156.786.93TT2.682-106.31874430.2073148630772.137068194760.40920199862013172112124WETL
2023-03-15 08:00:03FORECAST2023167-11833.56618.84226.204167.6983484063400.156.786.93TT1.566-108.43474430.215223411572.1463824253740.3561103175439172112124WETL
2023-03-15 04:00:15FORECAST2023167-11834.0718.17626.123167.0955521580300.116.786.89TT2.07-106.9374429.9582841858271.8441169009470.37981155587264172112124WETL
2023-03-15 00:00:06FORECAST2023167-11832.5419.00425.772166.5226163443800.116.786.89TT0.54-110.4674429.7137079163971.5570509212820.30962142628313172112124WETL
2023-03-14 20:00:05FORECAST2023167-11832.2718.01425.142166.5711037507100.156.786.93TT0.27-113.7374429.7344201303271.5813366807790.29784050029557172112124WETL
2023-03-14 16:00:05FORECAST2023167-11832.86417.85225.358166.5269215512800.146.786.92TT0.864-113.13674429.7155470613671.5592071948510.3240199675191172112124WETL
2023-03-14 12:00:04FORECAST2023167-11832.01818.66225.34166.726827466600.156.786.93TT0.018000000000001-114.98274429.8009228944771.659344316410.28703294976353172112124WETL
2023-03-14 08:00:05FORECAST2023167-11832.12619.38225.754166.7614141614600.156.786.93TT0.126-112.87474429.815689784271.6766722571960.29164201896452172112124WETL
2023-03-14 04:00:16FORECAST2023167-11832.59417.8725.232167.0951216668800.146.786.92TT0.594-114.40674429.9581005502671.8439011231050.31200178572993172112124WETL
2023-03-14 00:00:05FORECAST2023167-11832.95418.12225.538175.0693597018700.117.067.17TT0.954-115.04674433.3254731497375.8620131268320.32806793122883172112124WETL
2023-03-13 20:00:06FORECAST2023167-11833.06218.30225.682166.7327107038300.147.047.18TT1.062-114.93874429.8034348512471.6622917625670.33295222224506172112124WETL
2023-03-13 16:00:04FORECAST2023167-11833.87217.58225.727166.4055347830600.087.047.12TT1.872-113.12874429.6636840338171.4984151185070.37044074824127172111122WETL
2023-03-13 12:00:05FORECAST2023167-11832.93617.79825.367170.8889780421800.087.047.12TT0.936-112.06474431.5686824975873.7503311070210.32725670291599172111122WETL
2023-03-13 08:00:04FORECAST2023167-11833.63818.93226.285171.6105285259300.157.147.29TT1.638-114.36274431.8732450848174.1139958452140.3594648254925172112124WETL
2023-03-13 04:00:11FORECAST2023167-11832.05417.16824.611165.9907453757100.267.127.38TT0.054000000000002-118.94674429.4863427197471.2907581567390.28856547316908172112124WETL
2023-03-13 00:00:07FORECAST2023167-11831.67617.67224.674172.5723012468400.257.117.36TT-0.324-118.32474432.2783372926274.5992674457430.27266946791124172112124WETL
2023-03-12 20:00:04FORECAST2023167-11832.46816.44824.458166.1668273591700.267.137.39TT0.468-112.53274429.5616485897571.3788963013340.30645999685612172112124WETL
2023-03-12 16:00:03FORECAST2023167-11833.92619.3126.618165.9299525497800.257.197.44TT1.926-105.07474429.4603353227871.260333062120.37298907710464172112124WETL
2023-03-12 12:00:07FORECAST2023167-11833.72818.78826.258169.5466001770500.37.237.53TT1.728-108.27274431.0005846670973.0746838046260.3636732049947172112124WETL
2023-03-12 08:00:05FORECAST2023167-11831.89216.55624.224169.8623171751200.347.177.51TT-0.108-114.10874431.1343711920773.2334833045240.28169966275351172112124WETL
2023-03-12 04:00:11FORECAST2023167-11832.70218.33825.52170.1084476400300.437.237.66TT0.702-111.29874431.2385957080273.3573280783560.31678603219316172112124WETL
2023-03-11 23:00:04FORECAST2023167-11831.78416.01623.9172.1665179328400.457.147.59TT-0.216-119.21674432.107544762574.394451354270.27716659361988172112124WETL
2023-03-11 19:00:04FORECAST2023167-11831.62217.58224.602172.5610403383700.487.167.64TT-0.378-121.37874432.273599996974.5935821262770.27043454804317172112124WETL
2023-03-11 15:00:05FORECAST2023167-11831.3717.74424.557171.2843609512400.347.117.45TT-0.63-121.6374431.7356406306873.9495633052990.26012731266337172112124WETL
2023-03-11 11:00:04FORECAST2023167-11831.71217.13224.422172.6186108511500.387.337.71TT-0.288-122.28874432.2978176260174.6226487525840.2741644834419172112124WETL
2023-03-11 07:00:15FORECAST2023167-11833.09817.94225.52172.019174279200.337.277.6TT1.098-119.90274432.0454848462874.3201075543120.33458668584995172112124WETL
2023-03-11 03:00:12FORECAST2023167-11832.70217.34825.025173.0492469256100.457.487.93TT0.702-117.29874432.4788568514974.8401404893990.31678603219316172112124WETL
2023-03-10 23:00:06FORECAST2023167-11832.10816.71824.413174.0791293282900.517.658.16TT0.108-122.89274432.9110167451175.3607728716160.29087145183533172113126WETL
2023-03-10 19:00:07FORECAST2023167-11833.09816.7924.944173.9334475390900.637.448.07TT1.098-123.90274432.8499542869775.2870848162690.33458668584995172113126WETL
2023-03-10 15:00:07FORECAST2023167-11831.78414.50423.144174.6894501320900.587.678.25TT-0.216-125.21674433.166586970175.6696328934030.27716659361988172113126WETL
2023-03-10 11:00:07FORECAST2023167-11833.60217.16825.385177.1196991065300.657.538.18TT1.602-122.39874434.1803266770176.9018888190050.35778619926146172113126WETL
2023-03-10 07:00:16FORECAST2023167-11834.66419.56227.113175.4170730675900.477.568.03TT2.664-115.33674433.4707598793776.0381719584230.4083293560064172112124WETL
2023-03-10 03:00:16FORECAST2023167-11833.8920.08426.987177.4223768650200.847.48.24TT1.89-119.1174434.3061462371877.0556287524860.37128956622259172113126WETL
2023-03-09 23:00:07FORECAST2023167-11831.83819.23825.538180.6789857545401.487.198.67TT-0.162-113.16274435.6537783346478.7134828096340.27942866864074172114128WETL
2023-03-09 19:00:07FORECAST2023167-11832.46818.66225.565181.3835711208501.487.288.76TT0.468-114.53274435.9438821019279.0730581439350.30645999685612172114128WETL
2023-03-09 15:00:04FORECAST2023167-11832.59417.99625.295178.991516536660.007874021.337874027.038.36787402TT0.594-109.40674434.9568706864777.8535899122120.31200178572993172114128WETL
2023-03-09 11:00:07FORECAST2023167-11827.51816.77222.145178.24743288401.047.098.13TT-4.482-118.48274434.648621457177.4750009812980.13051994812683171114126WETL
2023-03-09 07:00:13FORECAST2023167-11832.25218.62625.439177.422389164050.007874021.137874027.018.14787402TT0.252-103.74874434.3061513477877.0556350007680.29706241572942172114128WETL
2023-03-09 03:00:11FORECAST2023167-11831.15420.44425.799175.543338898870.141732361.091732366.627.71173236TT-0.846-106.84674433.5234863823476.1021602906360.25145632612614172114128WETL
2023-03-08 23:00:07FORECAST2023167-11830.63218.93224.782175.136149056950.192913491.002913496.627.62291349TT-1.368-107.36874433.3533900210375.8958439090560.2311475952967171114126WETL
2023-03-08 19:00:03FORECAST2023167-11831.3720.2125.79174.530321993040.169291431.019291436.637.64929143TT-0.63-98.6374433.0999906598875.5890808250510.26012731266337172114128WETL
2023-03-08 15:00:05FORECAST2023167-11834.21420.5727.392173.3714679635900.866.647.5TT2.214-101.78674432.6141889812475.0029570055560.38667163898578172113126WETL
2023-03-08 11:00:06FORECAST2023167-11830.16418.524.332174.8929032315900.796.587.37TT-1.836-114.83674433.2516944073175.7726466649010.21374460316807171113124.5WETL
2023-03-08 07:00:10FORECAST2023167-11828.95816.50222.73177.7819047396900.746.927.66TT-3.042-121.04274434.4554720829777.2383213514910.1725662542408171113124.5WETL
2023-03-08 03:00:09FORECAST2023167-11830.27217.623.936179.5580005932200.777.388.15TT-1.728-120.72874435.1911559926678.1420538458920.21769164724713171113124.5WETL
2023-03-07 23:00:06FORECAST2023167-11830.52418.87824.701183.7349441237600.747.27.94TT-1.476-122.47674436.9082801854280.2753184470790.22706288137255171113124.5WETL
2023-03-07 19:00:07FORECAST2023167-11832.03620.40826.222183.4919679060100.767.17.86TT0.036000000000001-121.96474436.8088919350880.150923180010.2877987301219172113126WETL
2023-03-07 15:00:05FORECAST2023167-11836.15821.1128.634186.7130883124400.97.538.43TT4.158-117.84274438.1215053369181.803019317550.48189648194559172113126WETL
2023-03-07 11:21:28FORECAST2023167-11833.51217.74425.628183.5634180540400.747.268TT1.512-117.48874436.8381246405180.1874992953260.35360170484852172113126WETL
2023-03-07 11:00:03FORECAST2023167-11833.51217.74425.628204.5634180540400.747.268TT1.512-117.48874445.2040620818691.0724646710060.35360170484852172113126WETL
2023-03-07 07:00:19FORECAST2023167-11830.6514.9922.82206.1648160861500.737.418.14TT-1.35-130.3574445.8238991330791.9132021715810.23183233845135171113124.5WETL
2023-03-07 03:00:15FORECAST2023167-11834.89816.21425.556202.5909262724400.267.497.75TT2.898-111.10274444.43711607190.0389270146740.41970762003436172112124WETL
2023-03-06 23:00:06FORECAST2023167-11821.05621.05621.056185.8292273318400.217.457.66TT-10.944-126.94474437.7623985676481.3490482807550.026631881585516171112123WETL
2023-03-06 19:00:09FORECAST2023167-11819.59819.59819.598189.180717580100.497.68.09TT-12.402-129.40274439.1198296190183.0730044709770.017183741910901171112123WETL
2023-03-06 15:00:06FORECAST2023167-11819.11219.11219.112192.4355797703500.587.928.5TT-12.888-136.88874440.4271095385384.7538461706280.014749555451236171113124.5WETL
2023-03-06 11:00:06FORECAST2023167-11826.40226.40226.402193.9117707056100.97.728.62TT-5.598-117.59874441.0164525057485.5182812156960.10322205829039171113124.5WETL
2023-03-06 03:00:14FORECAST2023167-11832.70232.70232.702191.2449560701801.047.268.3TT0.702-104.29874439.9501616859484.1382493446950.31678603219316172114128WETL