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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, March 13, 2023

[ Sunday, March 12, 2023 | Index | Today | Tuesday, March 14, 2023 ]

DAY 164 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/14/2023 04:00:13 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.82°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 19.77°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 25.80°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.327
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -126

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.98 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.42 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.56 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.98 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 166 in
SWE DAY: 71
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 427.71 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 71.15 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -121

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-03-14 04:00:13OBSERVATION2023164-12131.8219.7700825.79504166.359575416670.980000000000021.424.565.98TF-0.18-126.1871427.71495067881 71.1544775942870.3274930131051116 2114128WETL
2023-03-14 00:00:02FORECAST2023164-12129.10218.2323.666174.482936247351.263780211.703780214.566.26378021TT-2.898-128.89871431.190457120775.2353770402550.22017861535634161115127.5WETL
2023-03-13 12:00:01FORECAST2023164-12128.50817.94223.225170.413034271021.240158151.680158154.566.24015815TT-3.492-129.49271429.4581502371773.1852664743370.19973288285384161115127.5WETL
2023-03-13 08:00:01FORECAST2023164-12128.59818.82423.711170.79334976241.342520411.782520414.566.34252041TT-3.402-129.40271429.6207867249473.3763732923120.20275532935709161115127.5WETL
2023-03-13 04:00:10FORECAST2023164-12128.00418.44623.225164.538006716641.318898351.758898354.566.31889835TT-3.996-129.99671426.9257167310570.2455064470010.18331261313898161115127.5WETL
2023-03-13 00:00:05FORECAST2023164-12127.60819.2223.414171.107568437661.311024331.751024334.566.31102433TT-4.392-130.39271429.7550393807973.534339812280.17101871701747161115127.5WETL
2023-03-12 20:00:02FORECAST2023164-12129.4820.42624.953164.646773378421.255906191.695906194.566.25590619TT-2.52-128.5271426.9729448141470.299717683530.23379027825892161115127.5WETL
2023-03-12 16:00:01FORECAST2023164-12129.96620.9325.448164.668416672481.318898351.758898354.566.31889835TT-2.034-128.03471426.9823410941470.3105060550790.251954903934741621151210WETL
2023-03-12 12:00:05FORECAST2023164-12130.39821.54225.97167.976031209491.358268451.798268454.566.35826845TT-1.602-127.60271428.4122635728171.9629917564360.268704748374691621151210WETL
2023-03-12 08:00:04FORECAST2023164-12129.6620.0324.845167.953216698091.370079481.810079484.566.37007948TT-2.34-128.3471428.4024416672971.9515681193380.2404321310671161115127.5WETL
2023-03-12 04:00:10FORECAST2023164-12129.76820.2124.989167.662013381.405512571.845512574.566.40551257TT-2.232-128.23271428.2770253319771.8057883515550.24446596663746161115127.5WETL
2023-03-11 23:00:02FORECAST2023164-12128.86819.88624.377169.434902406721.41732361.86732364.566.4273236TT-3.132-131.13271429.039143766472.6942054527220.21198485533019161115127.5WETL
2023-03-11 19:00:02FORECAST2023164-12128.9419.50824.224169.675215312091.484252771.934252774.566.49425277TT-3.06-131.0671429.1421841006972.8147924867830.21448686152355161115127.5WETL
2023-03-11 15:00:04FORECAST2023164-12129.13819.8524.494169.223151314391.318898351.768898354.566.32889835TT-2.862-130.86271428.9482979022372.5879827219590.22145509059632161115127.5WETL
2023-03-11 11:00:03FORECAST2023164-12129.98420.2125.097170.128673270051.645670182.095670184.566.65567018TT-2.016-130.01671429.3364446256673.0424397106420.252641660860411621151210WETL
2023-03-11 07:00:14FORECAST2023164-12129.53419.95824.746169.863746764721.590552042.040552044.566.60055204TT-2.466-130.46671429.2229777909972.9094232050870.23577210659905161115127.5WETL
2023-03-11 03:00:11FORECAST2023164-12131.24419.54425.394170.453155640981.618111112.088111114.566.64811111TT-0.756-128.75671429.4753149816873.2054227085320.303045869662781621151210WETL
2023-03-10 23:00:05FORECAST2023164-12130.54220.22825.385170.730046610411.944882942.474882944.567.03488294TT-1.458-131.45871429.5937269338173.3445570229480.27440963793291621151210WETL
2023-03-10 19:00:05FORECAST2023164-12130.45220.37225.412169.980728491061.736221412.296221414.566.85622141TT-1.548-131.54871429.2730899539272.9681525519760.27083709075731621151210WETL
2023-03-10 15:00:06FORECAST2023164-12130.48821.99226.24170.834844398481.933071912.473071914.567.03307191TT-1.512-131.51271429.6385218094973.3972300209180.272263323505971621151210WETL
2023-03-10 11:00:06FORECAST2023164-12130.57821.66826.123172.891606939481.606300082.166300084.566.72630008TT-1.422-132.42271430.5152574243674.4324746680630.275845133252331621151210WETL
2023-03-10 07:00:15FORECAST2023164-12130.93822.3726.654172.600692698721.720473372.340473374.566.90047337TT-1.062-130.06271430.391527419174.2858757641970.290399334931791621151210WETL
2023-03-10 03:00:15FORECAST2023164-12130.09222.74826.42172.135570630511.649607192.249607194.566.80960719TT-1.908-130.90871430.1935142812774.0516060623520.256782788534941621151210WETL
2023-03-09 23:00:06FORECAST2023164-12131.69427.48229.588170.83784846341.342520412.072520414.546.61252041TT-0.306-127.30671429.6398056943473.3987400190520.322076801781761621151210WETL
2023-03-09 19:00:06FORECAST2023164-12131.22627.4129.318171.330201875141.472441742.182441744.546.72244174TT-0.774-128.77471429.8500966154273.6463038291670.302295178853021621151210WETL
2023-03-09 15:00:03FORECAST2023164-12132.3627.87830.119170.125296352671.133858881.863858884.546.40385888TT0.36-124.6471429.3349987874573.0407439032870.351106567409451621151210WETL
2023-03-09 11:00:06FORECAST2023164-12131.80224.4428.121171.085263802191.401575562.021575564.546.56157556TT-0.198-126.19871429.7455130643373.5231244704180.326717009363891621151210WETL
2023-03-09 07:00:13FORECAST2023164-12132.70227.48230.092169.923026416951.354331441.984331444.546.52433144TT0.702-124.29871429.2483736316672.9391827320440.366371965527911621151210WETL
2023-03-09 03:00:11FORECAST2023164-12132.88227.82430.353168.442698316981.208662071.838662074.486.31866207TT0.882-126.11871428.6130442065472.1967377000040.374493925106571621151210WETL
2023-03-08 23:00:05FORECAST2023164-12133.96227.75230.857167.993856959260.972441471.712441474.46.11244147TT1.962-123.03871428.4199373638671.9719176759990.424280835657881621151210WETL
2023-03-08 19:00:03FORECAST2023164-12133.74628.32831.037167.688377630960.976378481.646378484.446.08637848TT1.746-118.25471428.2883837876471.8189842355330.414198497332211621151210WETL
2023-03-08 15:00:05FORECAST2023164-12133.78228.1330.956167.614457685851.074803731.724803734.386.10480373TT1.782-121.21871428.2565350871771.7819868790560.415875155071451621151210WETL
2023-03-08 11:00:05FORECAST2023164-12131.94625.77228.859169.814779392980.82677211.73677214.376.1067721TT-0.053999999999998-128.05471429.201996923372.8848424225570.332945751416751621151210WETL
2023-03-08 07:00:10FORECAST2023164-12131.35225.32228.337172.11199393510.889764262.019764264.396.40976426TT-0.648-129.64871430.1834709101274.0397349362640.307567399794681621151210WETL
2023-03-08 03:00:08FORECAST2023164-12131.24425.05228.148174.075032027160.870079212.300079214.466.76007921TT-0.756-129.75671431.0176437359475.0294101376070.303045869662781621151210WETL
2023-03-07 23:00:05FORECAST2023164-12132.16227.69829.93177.956546599830.940945392.340945394.526.86094539TT0.162-133.83871432.6548607708576.9937648924120.342375406036511621151210WETL
2023-03-07 19:00:06FORECAST2023164-12132.41427.0529.732177.60130330210.893701272.243701274.516.75370127TT0.414-134.58671432.5056898215476.813574197880.353501728005121621151210WETL
2023-03-07 15:00:04FORECAST2023164-12131.2827.82429.552179.982620712571.086614762.466614764.56.96661476TT-0.72-135.7271433.503065574278.0230178289780.304549745139991621151210WETL
2023-03-07 11:21:26FORECAST2023164-12130.23623.55826.897178.669032034711.051181672.361181674.56.86118167TT-1.764-131.76471432.9536366174577.3554071703470.262358679691251621151210WETL
2023-03-07 11:00:03FORECAST2023164-12130.23623.55826.897199.669032034711.051181672.361181674.56.86118167TT-1.764-131.76471441.5213436192288.1581393031160.262358679691251621151210WETL
2023-03-07 07:00:18FORECAST2023164-12129.44423.10826.276201.028926134981.055118682.495118684.517.00511868TT-2.556-137.55671442.0605641809188.8669605039140.23247419704252161115127.5WETL
2023-03-07 03:00:14FORECAST2023164-12129.15620.91225.034200.657373880730.830709112.490709114.56.99070911TT-2.844-132.84471441.913422425988.6731868266280.22209490856992161115127.5WETL
2023-03-06 23:00:05FORECAST2023164-12131.49622.35226.924183.943474464390.649606652.149606654.756.89960665TT-0.504-129.50471435.1487003083280.0427638433770.313641741294051621151210WETL
2023-03-06 19:00:08FORECAST2023164-12131.65822.02826.843184.866074240730.62992162.50992164.597.0999216TT-0.342-133.34271435.5296457338280.5146558222670.320536158457151621151210WETL
2023-03-06 15:00:05FORECAST2023164-12131.08222.24426.663187.178480139970.885827252.915827254.597.50582725TT-0.918-135.91871436.4805345315481.6997630642970.296319911604371621151210WETL
2023-03-06 11:00:05FORECAST2023164-12128.27422.1925.232186.998633305970.976378482.276378484.586.85637848TT-3.726-138.72671436.4067795060481.6074713330890.1920021091805161115127.5WETL
2023-03-06 07:00:10FORECAST2023164-12127.01419.97623.495185.986495822810.503937281.823937284.266.08393728TT-4.986-127.98671435.9910738929281.0884520433670.15358958755189161115127.5WETL
2023-03-06 03:00:13FORECAST2023164-12130.43422.53226.483183.792852020370.688976751.938976754.456.38897675TT-1.566-131.56671435.0864228397379.9657745290540.270125373676221621151210WETL
2023-03-05 23:00:06FORECAST2023164-12127.24820.40823.828181.233890685290.437008111.367008114.275.63700811TF-4.752-125.75271434.0247267236878.6599898777550.16031037571646161114126WETL
2023-03-05 19:00:06FORECAST2023164-12128.83220.89424.863180.79107490350.425197081.365197084.235.59519708TF-3.168-130.16871433.8403039727778.43445489170.21074026823821161114126WETL
2023-03-05 15:00:06FORECAST2023164-12126.3319.95823.144181.24620392440.429134091.399134094.375.76913409TF-5.67-139.6771434.0298519455178.6662630549910.1350250723589161114126WETL
2023-03-05 11:00:05FORECAST2023164-12128.25624.45826.357181.999957149750.7874021.6074024.245.847402TF-3.744-136.74471434.3432866468979.0504595580160.19141510065071161115127.5WETL
2023-03-05 07:00:21FORECAST2023164-12124.87220.76822.82183.796134710070.803150041.743150044.085.82315004TF-7.128-145.12871435.0877803788679.9674522932190.1007374381904161115127.5WETL
2023-03-05 03:00:11FORECAST2023164-12132.61228.68830.65180.126337799030.578740471.518740474.055.56874047TF0.612-124.38871433.5630663091978.0961273391950.362333052471961621151210WETL
2023-03-04 23:00:06FORECAST2023164-12132.28826.13229.21170.492867473030.177165451.347165454.15.44716545TF0.288-125.71271429.4923027950373.2253742611210.34792220796622162114128WETL
2023-03-04 19:00:04FORECAST2023164-12132.34225.73629.039172.646011597380.173228441.653228444.075.72322844TF0.342-127.65871430.4108082100974.3087093858750.350309486841621151210WETL
2023-03-04 15:00:09FORECAST2023164-12134.62828.41831.523181.379386285550.606299541.916299544.126.03629954TT2.628-126.37271434.0852770879278.7341211538010.45565285150141621151210WETL
2023-03-04 11:00:06FORECAST2023164-12135.88826.56431.226184.92039717960.818898081.848898084.135.97889808TT3.888-119.11271435.5520480927180.5424577256920.515607128433221631151212.5WETL
2023-03-04 07:00:16FORECAST2023164-12136.44629.71433.08185.735334755440.877953232.117953234.076.18795323TT4.446-115.55471435.8877512836580.9597574004630.542126086354621631151212.5WETL
2023-03-04 03:00:20FORECAST2023164-12136.24824.02630.137177.432227111710.405512031.925512034.015.93551203TT4.248-112.75271432.434645398276.7278422132640.532731442889621631151212.5WETL
2023-03-03 23:00:06FORECAST2023164-12128.61628.61628.616178.2847892500103.394.327.71TT-3.384-124.38471432.7925742306877.1603328856860.20336307491989161115127.5WETL
2023-03-03 19:00:07FORECAST2023164-12127.19427.19427.194180.1074804190203.394.317.7TT-4.806-126.80671433.555194752178.0865337493780.15874266143279161115127.5WETL
2023-03-03 15:00:06FORECAST2023164-12125.0725.0725.07170.2739782304502.384.346.72TT-6.93-123.9371429.3986456732273.1154156455470.10498131449461161115127.5WETL
2023-03-03 11:00:05FORECAST2023164-12133.96233.96233.962171.924902104530.015748042.005748044.796.79574804TT1.962-108.03871430.103750852873.9455452601590.424280835657881621151210WETL
2023-03-03 07:00:09FORECAST2023164-12133.96233.96233.962176.031428865250.015748041.955748044.586.53574804TT1.962-106.03871431.8448665060476.0182688991820.424280835657881621151210WETL
2023-03-03 03:00:07FORECAST2023164-12129.08429.08429.084172.1036588337901.674.616.28TT-2.916-118.91671430.1799201195274.0355382093980.21954196049104161115127.5WETL