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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, March 12, 2023

[ Saturday, March 11, 2023 | Index | Today | Monday, March 13, 2023 ]

DAY 163 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/13/2023 12:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 28.87°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 18.30°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 23.59°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.190
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -129

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.83 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.27 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.56 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.83 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 166 in
SWE DAY: 71
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 427.55 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 70.96 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -121

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-03-13 00:00:03FORECAST2023163-12128.86818.30223.585165.969325618380.830709111.270709114.565.83070911TF-3.132-129.13271427.546173753770.9595501286190.19043082428882161114126WETL
2023-03-12 12:00:03FORECAST2023163-12130.79419.02224.908163.084470103210.897638281.337638284.565.89763828TF-1.206-127.20671426.2933158958869.5218195314180.26201454407343162114128WETL
2023-03-12 08:00:01FORECAST2023163-12129.318.12223.711162.89660557440.830709111.270709114.565.83070911TF-2.7-128.771426.2114097811469.4283919104270.20535109753206161114126WETL
2023-03-12 04:00:09FORECAST2023163-12129.94818.9524.449162.588973446950.850394161.290394164.565.85039416TF-2.052-128.05271426.0772023613869.2754549410840.22898598348611161114126WETL
2023-03-11 23:00:02FORECAST2023163-12130.36219.32824.845163.71020844960.744094891.194094894.565.75409489TF-1.638-129.63871426.5658467037969.8331836813580.24485041329089161114126WETL
2023-03-11 19:00:02FORECAST2023163-12128.5818.9523.765163.661520812950.700787781.150787784.565.71078778TF-3.42-131.4271426.5446570818969.8089472726610.18086321854313161114126WETL
2023-03-11 15:00:02FORECAST2023163-12129.08418.78823.936163.982003282760.814961071.264961074.565.82496107TF-2.916-130.91671426.6840879381769.9685115089770.19780614892001161114126WETL
2023-03-11 11:00:03FORECAST2023163-12129.22819.41824.323163.838549834460.704724791.154724794.565.71472479TF-2.772-130.77271426.6216903279169.8970790712510.20281736247753161114126WETL
2023-03-11 07:00:13FORECAST2023163-12128.83220.24624.539163.605251999070.700787781.150787784.565.71078778TF-3.168-131.16871426.5201647484569.7809390363570.18921819382503161114126WETL
2023-03-11 03:00:11FORECAST2023163-12130.32619.0424.683164.277092339940.858268181.328268184.565.88826818TF-1.674-129.67471426.8123706693870.1154952282850.24344785500676161114126WETL
2023-03-10 23:00:05FORECAST2023163-12128.68818.71623.702162.890151273150.653543661.183543664.565.74354366TF-3.312-133.31271426.2085951081769.4251825310870.18441527939827161114126WETL
2023-03-10 19:00:03FORECAST2023163-12128.419.14823.774162.853280027130.610236551.170236554.565.73023655TF-3.6-133.671426.1925149460969.4068489819820.17503893113406161114126WETL
2023-03-10 15:00:05FORECAST2023163-12129.42617.90623.666162.977336466740.673228711.213228714.565.77322871TF-2.574-132.57471426.2466120274569.4685375062070.20983001399941161114126WETL
2023-03-10 11:00:06FORECAST2023163-12129.4818.523.99166.029457561110.830709111.390709114.565.95070911TF-2.52-133.5271427.5721907813770.9895789036460.21176696063564161114126WETL
2023-03-10 07:00:14FORECAST2023163-12129.89419.45424.674165.624043495940.685039741.305039744.565.86503974TF-2.106-131.10671427.3967050880870.7871704735270.22696001950224161114126WETL
2023-03-10 03:00:14FORECAST2023163-12130.57818.08624.332165.248944561240.622047581.222047584.565.78204758TF-1.422-130.42271427.2341804427170.5999973986440.2533561858677162114128WETL
2023-03-09 23:00:06FORECAST2023163-12132.12619.38225.754165.11753454430.614173561.344173564.545.88417356TF0.126-126.87471427.1772058511870.534447043670.31854285332293162114128WETL
2023-03-09 19:00:06FORECAST2023163-12131.71219.425.556164.95996467190.59055151.30055154.545.8405515TF-0.288-128.28871427.1088642230170.4558631532830.30042644816155162114128WETL
2023-03-09 15:00:02FORECAST2023163-12130.4719.6725.07165.386736321150.661417681.391417684.545.93141768TF-1.53-126.5371427.2939015040170.6687438196810.2490840135911162114128WETL
2023-03-09 11:00:06FORECAST2023163-12131.40618.80625.106164.971377836650.559055421.179055424.545.71905542TF-0.594-126.59471427.1138152903770.461554601520.28734275662119162114128WETL
2023-03-09 07:00:12FORECAST2023163-12132.43220.64226.537164.285559191680.519685321.149685324.545.68968532TF0.432-124.56871426.8160500067470.1197134473410.33222086703703162114128WETL
2023-03-09 03:00:10FORECAST2023163-12130.54219.3124.926163.385145823650.330708840.960708844.485.44070884TF-1.458-128.45871426.424324689769.6714004721780.25192786830501162113126WETL
2023-03-08 23:00:05FORECAST2023163-12131.20818.82425.016163.534492302120.535433361.275433364.45.67543336TF-0.792-125.79271426.4893599458469.7457209509990.27902293477857162114128WETL
2023-03-08 19:00:02FORECAST2023163-12131.53219.50825.52163.292074291340.574803461.244803464.445.68480346TF-0.468-120.46871426.3837827580169.6250923307460.29269750966098162114128WETL
2023-03-08 15:00:04FORECAST2023163-12131.22619.88625.556162.818212300090.574803461.224803464.385.60480346TF-0.774-123.77471426.1772199312369.3894130722270.27977442249641162114128WETL
2023-03-08 11:00:05FORECAST2023163-12129.96618.6824.323165.802731962620.496063261.406063264.375.77606326TF-2.034-130.03471427.4740736388970.8763692525190.22966354906587161114126WETL
2023-03-08 07:00:09FORECAST2023163-12130.54218.87824.71167.714274421780.535433361.665433364.396.05543336TT-1.458-130.45871428.2995401079471.8319466043840.251927868305011621151210WETL
2023-03-08 03:00:08FORECAST2023163-12130.16419.43624.8169.825226031130.649606652.079606654.466.53960665TT-1.836-130.83671429.2064731744972.8900863208820.23719031995382161115127.5WETL
2023-03-07 23:00:05FORECAST2023163-12129.33617.58223.459173.167709015220.374015951.774015954.526.29401595TT-2.664-136.66471430.6326030705274.5716613009820.20662496977315161115127.5WETL
2023-03-07 19:00:05FORECAST2023163-12129.08417.94223.513172.958103060840.381889971.731889974.516.24188997TT-2.916-137.91671430.5435263448174.4659916017230.19780614892001161115127.5WETL
2023-03-07 15:00:04FORECAST2023163-12128.88619.95824.422174.281657061850.594488511.974488514.56.47448851TT-3.114-138.11471431.1052052211375.1337295339270.19103892112569161115127.5WETL
2023-03-07 11:21:26FORECAST2023163-12127.73419.90423.819172.66769860310.425197081.735197084.56.23519708TT-4.266-134.26671430.4200340971974.3196367202290.15453557395515161115127.5WETL
2023-03-07 11:00:03FORECAST2023163-12127.73419.90423.819193.66769860310.425197081.735197084.56.23519708TT-4.266-134.26671439.1193424486985.0432324641440.15453557395515161115127.5WETL
2023-03-07 07:00:18FORECAST2023163-12126.58218.64422.613194.890463436560.425197081.865197084.516.37519708TT-5.418-140.41871439.61172199885.6761322323340.12295774442511161115127.5WETL
2023-03-07 03:00:14FORECAST2023163-12129.15621.0225.088195.700502716940.527559342.187559344.56.68755934TT-2.844-132.84471439.9370652822886.0959048395560.20030235948109161115127.5WETL
2023-03-06 23:00:05FORECAST2023163-12128.14820.94824.548179.65173637960.578740472.078740474.756.82874047TT-3.852-132.85271433.3648407172877.8547461207310.1670868204065161115127.5WETL
2023-03-06 19:00:08FORECAST2023163-12129.06620.08424.575180.818814639750.527559342.407559344.596.99755934TT-2.934-135.93471433.8518630361978.448579603450.19718503934671161115127.5WETL
2023-03-06 15:00:05FORECAST2023163-12128.61618.93223.774181.351770827480.440945122.470945124.597.06094512TT-3.384-138.38471434.0737861856478.7200497945540.18204245595396161115127.5WETL
2023-03-06 11:00:05FORECAST2023163-12128.63421.12824.881180.506953016130.893701272.193701274.586.77370127TT-3.366-138.36671433.7218643465678.2898121896730.18263386903379161115127.5WETL
2023-03-06 07:00:10FORECAST2023163-12127.39222.11824.755181.746175861321.094488782.414488784.266.67448878TT-4.608-127.60871434.2378232705178.9210637937610.14464842477677161115127.5WETL
2023-03-06 03:00:13FORECAST2023163-12128.20220.69624.449179.203899228040.897638282.147638284.456.59763828TT-3.798-133.79871433.1775744382477.6271103974770.16877097847854161115127.5WETL
2023-03-05 23:00:06FORECAST2023163-12128.36420.31824.341177.639814905970.665354691.595354694.275.86535469TF-3.636-124.63671432.5218678146676.8331045413810.1738884777408161115127.5WETL
2023-03-05 19:00:06FORECAST2023163-12129.49820.87625.187177.41646523850.657480671.597480674.235.82748067TF-2.502-129.50271432.4280208339976.7198509264460.21241492277879161115127.5WETL
2023-03-05 15:00:06FORECAST2023163-12126.7822.3724.575177.635202902590.535433361.505433364.375.87543336TF-5.22-139.2271432.5199304830776.8307656107740.12803727696939161115127.5WETL
2023-03-05 11:00:05FORECAST2023163-12129.7520.0324.89176.157134190290.468504191.288504194.245.52850419TF-2.25-135.2571431.8978780394476.0818924582960.2216070810113161114126WETL
2023-03-05 07:00:20FORECAST2023163-12127.73419.16623.45177.052246252980.480315221.420315224.085.50031522TF-4.266-142.26671432.2748691909676.5352365889710.15453557395515161114126WETL
2023-03-05 03:00:10FORECAST2023163-12133.49424.85429.174176.386716641820.661417681.601417684.055.65141768TF1.494-123.50671431.9946522025476.1981183088330.381345344657451621151210WETL
2023-03-04 23:00:06FORECAST2023163-12132.55825.19628.877169.059379467440.137795351.307795354.15.40779535TF0.558-125.44271428.8780026704972.505848998710.3379199180923162114128WETL
2023-03-04 19:00:04FORECAST2023163-12132.77425.17828.976171.183098047860.145669371.625669374.075.69566937TF0.774-127.22671429.78729409273.5723205042760.347776026140461621151210WETL
2023-03-04 15:00:09FORECAST2023163-12133.33225.1629.246176.893896114821.137795892.447795894.126.56779589TT1.332-127.66871432.2082398160276.4549994739830.373703518533491621151210WETL
2023-03-04 11:00:05FORECAST2023163-12131.92824.69228.31179.093751217021.303150312.333150314.136.46315031TT-0.071999999999999-123.07271433.1314826180877.571141992260.309820780133811621151210WETL
2023-03-04 07:00:15FORECAST2023163-12135.1527.46431.307179.750068175671.460630712.700630714.076.77063071TT3.15-116.8571433.4059303415777.9047455266360.461612478167261621151210WETL
2023-03-04 03:00:20FORECAST2023163-12135.6929.332.495174.272558692790.559055422.079055424.016.08905542TT3.69-113.3171431.1013505726675.1291354202150.488298165736081621151210WETL
2023-03-03 23:00:05FORECAST2023163-12134.2526.40230.326178.284789250010.468504193.858504194.328.17850419TT2.25-118.7571432.7925742306877.1603328856860.417575941455311621151210WETL
2023-03-03 19:00:07FORECAST2023163-12133.36826.36629.867180.107480419020.523622333.913622334.318.22362233TT1.368-120.63271433.555194752178.0865337493780.375397537540081621151210WETL
2023-03-03 15:00:06FORECAST2023163-12134.2525.53829.894170.273978230450.165354422.545354424.346.88535442TT2.25-114.7571429.3986456732273.1154156455470.417575941455311621151210WETL
2023-03-03 11:00:05FORECAST2023163-12134.37628.50831.442171.792697187660.440945122.430945124.797.22094512TT2.376-107.62471430.0473953287373.8790019620510.423692123678361621151210WETL
2023-03-03 07:00:09FORECAST2023163-12134.37628.6731.523175.899223948380.425197082.365197084.586.94519708TT2.376-105.62471431.7890957476475.9513668513830.423692123678361621151210WETL
2023-03-03 03:00:07FORECAST2023163-12133.51223.21628.364172.103658833790.055118141.725118144.616.33511814TT1.512-114.48871430.1799201195274.0355382093980.382197360088691621151210WETL
2023-03-02 23:00:04FORECAST2023163-12127.12227.12227.122174.5105305115202.734.867.59TT-4.878-110.87871431.2021412882375.2493144339140.13714952945414161115127.5WETL
2023-03-02 19:00:05FORECAST2023163-12127.64427.64427.644175.0923742509302.534.797.32TT-4.356-115.35671431.4483192801675.5433105893380.15189150441979161115127.5WETL
2023-03-02 15:00:07FORECAST2023163-12121.43421.43421.434161.9802888570500.524.795.31TF-10.566-128.56671425.811348743368.9730452680490.035841292542843161113124.5WETL
2023-03-02 11:00:05FORECAST2023163-12119.07619.07619.076162.25144368400.084.494.57TF-12.924-130.92471425.9298311151269.1077300065110.018069910731814161111121.5WETL
2023-03-02 07:00:14FORECAST2023163-12117.4217.4217.42162.3493279479100.084.454.53TF-14.58-143.5871425.9725820608269.156362421810.010661806256693161111121.5WETL
2023-03-02 03:00:17FORECAST2023163-12116.716.716.7165.5245708001900.334.524.85TF-15.3-152.371427.3536201725370.7375245589660.0083742547223947161112123WETL