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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, March 11, 2023

[ Friday, March 10, 2023 | Index | Today | Sunday, March 12, 2023 ]

DAY 162 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/13/2023 04:00:09 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 28.58°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 19.19°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 23.88°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.197
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -142

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.05 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.57 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.56 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.13 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 160 in
SWE DAY: 70
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 424.15 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 67.73 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -122

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-03-13 04:00:09OBSERVATION2023163-12228.5819.1899423.88497159.688000833330.0499999999999550.569999999999954.565.13TF-3.42-142.4270424.14744838405 67.7312580910090.197193321480916 1113124.5WETL
2023-03-12 04:00:08OBSERVATION2023162-12228.5819.1899423.88497159.688000833330.0499999999999550.569999999999954.565.13TF-3.42-142.4270424.14744838405 67.7312580910090.197193321480916 1113124.5WETL
2023-03-11 11:00:02FORECAST2023162-12226.94216.93421.938161.256647508120.059055150.579055154.565.13905515TF-5.058-144.05870424.8383642007868.5080103438520.14653181371052161113124.5WETL
2023-03-11 07:00:12FORECAST2023162-12226.5117.58222.046160.984982484730.059055150.579055154.565.13905515TF-5.49-144.4970424.7189054154268.3733655492330.13477062851711161113124.5WETL
2023-03-11 03:00:10FORECAST2023162-12226.52816.95221.74161.114889137290.082677210.602677214.565.16267721TF-5.472-144.47270424.7760393246368.4377444839660.13524739848119161113124.5WETL
2023-03-10 23:00:03FORECAST2023162-12226.74417.27622.01160.280841418590.055118140.655118144.565.21511814TF-5.256-146.25670424.408890706368.0246141079350.14105859359415161113124.5WETL
2023-03-10 19:00:02FORECAST2023162-12226.79817.09621.947160.420047352870.086614220.686614224.565.24661422TF-5.202-146.20270424.4702233821468.0935333348460.14253739116422161113124.5WETL
2023-03-10 15:00:02FORECAST2023162-12226.97816.95221.965160.362447213520.074803190.674803194.565.23480319TF-5.022-146.02270424.444847994568.065014531570.14754201436862161113124.5WETL
2023-03-10 11:00:05FORECAST2023162-12226.40217.0621.731162.625415163960.090551230.690551234.565.25055123TF-5.598-146.59870425.4389976643169.1871936220960.13193416475457161113124.5WETL
2023-03-10 07:00:14FORECAST2023162-12227.3218.66222.991162.87490970970.110236280.750236284.565.31023628TF-4.68-144.6870425.5482543635569.3111335065830.15737064263247161113124.5WETL
2023-03-10 03:00:14FORECAST2023162-12226.97818.42822.703162.759861874950.110236280.730236284.565.29023628TF-5.022-145.02270425.497882118369.2539765216580.14754201436862161113124.5WETL
2023-03-09 23:00:05FORECAST2023162-12226.79817.8722.334162.48474363920.102362260.842362264.565.40236226TF-5.202-143.20270425.3773653596969.117332160390.14253739116422161113124.5WETL
2023-03-09 19:00:05FORECAST2023162-12226.1517.6921.92162.42836670550.098425250.818425254.565.37842525TF-5.85-143.8570425.3526587960569.0893376420860.1254762482418161113124.5WETL
2023-03-09 15:00:02FORECAST2023162-12228.9418.46423.702162.570782274870.07874020.83874024.565.3987402TF-3.06-141.0670425.4150640149969.1600597484310.2096021663014161113124.5WETL
2023-03-09 11:00:05FORECAST2023162-12227.78817.43822.613162.551781571190.098425250.728425254.565.28842525TF-4.212-142.21270425.4067393828169.1506233790680.17150037184167161113124.5WETL
2023-03-09 07:00:12FORECAST2023162-12227.60817.56422.586162.104350465220.070866180.740866184.565.30086618TF-4.392-141.39270425.2105936666368.9284870972610.16597290576932161113124.5WETL
2023-03-09 03:00:10FORECAST2023162-12228.18416.91622.55161.894614347510.059055150.679055154.565.23905515TF-3.816-142.81670425.1185723752168.8244073266480.18406848048181161113124.5WETL
2023-03-08 23:00:04FORECAST2023162-12227.93217.79822.865161.01335578760.066929170.786929174.485.26692917TF-4.068-141.06870424.731385813668.3874257381670.1760058462883161113124.5WETL
2023-03-08 19:00:02FORECAST2023162-12229.01217.9623.486160.608726196920.070866180.760866184.485.24086618TF-2.988-135.98870424.5533186947168.1869677182320.21213782689325161113124.5WETL
2023-03-08 15:00:04FORECAST2023162-12227.7719.34623.558160.263225853970.043307110.683307114.485.16330711TF-4.23-139.2370424.4011279272768.0158938176870.1709424028024161113124.5WETL
2023-03-08 11:00:05FORECAST2023162-12226.11417.92422.019163.320426026830.114173290.934173294.485.41417329TF-5.886-143.88670425.7431792611469.5325574149460.12457196026306161113124.5WETL
2023-03-08 07:00:09FORECAST2023162-12225.46618.2321.848165.036794311020.169291431.169291434.485.64929143TF-6.534-144.53470426.4920762863270.3868850693440.10906712015994161114126WETL
2023-03-08 03:00:08FORECAST2023162-12225.28618.82422.055166.676932450680.385826981.515826984.56.01582698TT-6.714-144.71470427.2046679345671.2051635799440.1050167115241161115127.5WETL
2023-03-07 23:00:05FORECAST2023162-12225.41217.8721.641171.28336363440.385826981.565826984.486.04582698TT-6.588-149.58870429.1902220620573.5131448737840.10784041902464161115127.5WETL
2023-03-07 19:00:04FORECAST2023162-12224.96217.90621.434170.960040907870.385826981.505826984.485.98582698TT-7.038-151.03870429.051613982973.3506814781040.098001584972692161115127.5WETL
2023-03-07 15:00:04FORECAST2023162-12224.94417.83421.389171.073596901680.374015951.524015954.496.01401595TT-7.056-151.05670429.1003082756173.4077331683260.097622141811175161115127.5WETL
2023-03-07 11:21:25FORECAST2023162-12226.36618.55422.46170.299376342130.385826981.435826984.55.93582698TF-5.634-145.63470428.768033663273.0189287282830.13099786656447161114126WETL
2023-03-07 11:00:02FORECAST2023162-12226.36618.55422.46191.299376342130.385826981.435826984.55.93582698TF-5.634-145.63470437.5531508521683.7036448745510.13099786656447161114126WETL
2023-03-07 07:00:17FORECAST2023162-12225.19617.5121.353192.414669021180.43307111.57307114.516.0830711TT-6.804-150.80470438.0067455814984.2789229801060.10303270021437161115127.5WETL
2023-03-07 03:00:13FORECAST2023162-12226.49219.59823.045192.962095898610.547244391.767244394.526.28724439TT-5.508-145.50870438.2289169420984.5615702965220.13429500968391161115127.5WETL
2023-03-06 23:00:05FORECAST2023162-12226.2419.54422.892176.198226472260.374015951.804015954.586.38401595TT-5.76-144.7670431.2832613501775.9913457570730.12775691895206161115127.5WETL
2023-03-06 19:00:08FORECAST2023162-12226.11418.8622.487177.809636512990.476378212.196378214.46.59637821TT-5.886-148.88670431.9638268585176.8073310404690.12457196026306161115127.5WETL
2023-03-06 15:00:05FORECAST2023162-12225.39418.87822.136178.734158348060.523622332.433622334.326.75362233TT-6.606-150.60670432.3530351963777.2762558550540.10743372823754161115127.5WETL
2023-03-06 11:00:05FORECAST2023162-12227.519.47223.486175.122560766360.346456881.596456884.416.00645688TT-4.5-150.570430.8274101615575.4475993158290.16271217909788161115127.5WETL
2023-03-06 07:00:09FORECAST2023162-12229.2118.15823.684174.06209366990.559055421.439055424.275.70905542TF-2.79-138.7970430.3767790671374.9122832313310.21920250859994161114126WETL
2023-03-06 03:00:12FORECAST2023162-12227.48217.92422.703173.713047245130.350393891.490393894.345.83039389TF-4.518-145.51870430.2281908207474.736250038230.16217279295062161114126WETL
2023-03-05 23:00:06FORECAST2023162-12229.35417.76223.558172.728886142320.35433091.03433094.35.3343309TF-2.646-136.64670429.808525681874.240347895490.22442416482746161114126WETL
2023-03-05 19:00:05FORECAST2023162-12226.9618.28422.622172.665920166710.35433091.04433094.265.3043309TF-5.04-143.0470429.7816400609774.2086423518870.14703633389689161114126WETL
2023-03-05 15:00:06FORECAST2023162-12226.16819.09422.631173.934548957970.362204921.102204924.375.47220492TF-5.832-149.83270430.3224988547774.8479497447680.12593010095189161114126WETL
2023-03-05 11:00:05FORECAST2023162-12227.96817.0622.514173.19197722270.122047310.982047314.215.19204731TF-4.032-149.03270430.0061272670674.4736113992590.17714379250905161113124.5WETL
2023-03-05 07:00:20FORECAST2023162-12228.18416.59222.388173.689810903880.220472561.080472564.075.15047256TF-3.816-153.81670430.2182944870974.7245342168520.18406848048181161114126WETL
2023-03-05 03:00:10FORECAST2023162-12229.4819.32824.404172.659366817960.637795621.087795624.035.11779562TF-2.52-140.5270429.7788416225474.2053426663050.2290503543819161114126WETL
2023-03-04 23:00:06FORECAST2023162-12230.2918.9524.62168.059587630730.791339011.371339014.035.40133901TF-1.71-141.7170427.8030889829771.8964107216330.26003054708438162114128WETL
2023-03-04 19:00:04FORECAST2023162-12230.30818.78824.548170.126918349070.885827251.645827254.035.67582725TF-1.692-143.69270428.6939303090772.9323772784330.260742689401861621151210WETL
2023-03-04 15:00:08FORECAST2023162-12230.0220.44425.232169.298862459950.578740471.608740473.955.55874047TF-1.98-144.9870428.3376710976872.5170804655840.249469851940271621151210WETL
2023-03-04 11:00:05FORECAST2023162-12231.15421.4726.312169.918928153280.59055151.24055154.055.2905515TF-0.846-138.84670428.6045159555272.8280199528180.29530502653147162114128WETL
2023-03-04 07:00:15FORECAST2023162-12233.90822.5528.229170.62553723340.688976751.488976753.955.43897675TF1.908-136.09270428.9080927908273.1826737561880.4198254861585162114128WETL
2023-03-04 03:00:19FORECAST2023162-12236.17623.37829.777170.99751060831.039370641.539370644.125.65937064TF4.176-132.82470429.0676830322773.3695056809890.529510692352281631151212.5WETL
2023-03-03 23:00:05FORECAST2023162-12235.0629.13832.099174.688103772161.846457693.456457694.387.83645769TT3.06-136.9470430.6429403249275.2281986482260.475298741641351621151210WETL
2023-03-03 19:00:07FORECAST2023162-12233.8927.55430.722175.896718676341.870079753.450079754.387.83007975TT1.89-138.1170431.1556124138175.8388574624760.418968330892451621151210WETL
2023-03-03 15:00:05FORECAST2023162-12234.2527.33830.794168.926423188260.952756422.552756424.36.85275642TT2.25-132.7570428.1771899598972.3304411907240.436179186822891621151210WETL
2023-03-03 11:00:04FORECAST2023162-12233.9829.62431.802169.042059762550.771653962.341653964.576.91165396TT1.98-126.0270428.2270330970572.3883797207310.423257872200971621151210WETL
2023-03-03 07:00:09FORECAST2023162-12233.6229.89431.757172.775505393340.751968912.291968914.366.65196891TT1.62-124.3870429.8284287019274.2638240013990.40615933045151621151210WETL
2023-03-03 03:00:07FORECAST2023162-12231.62226.74429.183171.676079705030.692913761.932913764.486.41291376TT-0.378-132.37870429.3584259608273.7105713572750.315287408929791621151210WETL
2023-03-02 23:00:04FORECAST2023162-12235.61828.05831.838174.510530511521.06299273.10299274.627.7229927TT3.618-122.38270430.5674843406375.1385601132950.502410282722541631151212.5WETL
2023-03-02 19:00:05FORECAST2023162-12235.628.47232.036175.092374250930.940945392.870945394.587.45094539TT3.6-127.470430.8145995885975.4323511039310.501535217475871631151212.5WETL
2023-03-02 15:00:07FORECAST2023162-12232.9922.6427.815161.980288857050.283464720.543464724.95.44346472TF0.99-134.0170425.1561678131668.8669188717310.37668135097481162113126WETL
2023-03-02 11:00:05FORECAST2023162-12233.60219.72426.663162.2514436840.015748040.115748044.584.69574804TF1.602-134.39870425.2751012745169.0014991446510.40530879604926162112124WETL
2023-03-02 07:00:14FORECAST2023162-12231.31617.83424.575162.349327947910.015748040.115748044.544.65574804TF-0.684-144.68470425.3180149828669.0500938966070.30215608977943162112124WETL
2023-03-02 03:00:17FORECAST2023162-12227.46414.88221.173165.524570800190.149606380.329606384.654.97960638TF-4.536-152.53670426.7043110231470.6300479406960.16163456943785161112123WETL
2023-03-01 23:00:07FORECAST2023162-12221.97421.97421.974174.645545822560.027559070.637559074.885.51755907TF-10.026-154.02670430.624859329275.2067136023120.048648301052545161113124.5WETL
2023-03-01 19:00:06FORECAST2023162-12222.4622.4622.46172.486421060030.027559070.607559074.755.35755907TF-9.54-152.5470429.7049727625574.1182728635080.054946275892165161113124.5WETL
2023-03-01 15:00:06FORECAST2023162-12221.3821.3821.38178.7970182003200.995.076.06TF-10.62-152.6270432.3794649810577.3081590696630.041747066084185161113124.5WETL
2023-03-01 11:00:09FORECAST2023162-12223.30623.30623.306174.1075839775300.864.715.57TF-8.694-131.69470430.3961344833474.9352311281610.067421493958881161113124.5WETL
2023-03-01 07:00:21FORECAST2023162-12226.90626.90626.906174.3383129460400.974.585.55TF-5.094-131.09470430.4942716288675.051645048710.14552625321239161113124.5WETL
2023-03-01 03:00:14FORECAST2023162-12227.1427.1427.14167.3225260310900.334.54.83TF-4.86-130.8670427.4843460815971.5277606251180.15214538627289161112123WETL