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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, March 10, 2023

[ Thursday, March 9, 2023 | Index | Today | Saturday, March 11, 2023 ]

DAY 161 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/11/2023 07:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 25.10°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 20.60°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 22.85°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.126
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -147

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.39 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.93 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.90 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.83 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 161 in
SWE DAY: 69
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 423.95 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 68.14 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -123

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-03-11 07:00:11OBSERVATION2023161-12325.1000620.6000622.85006160.731305833330.389999999999990.929999999999994.95.83TF-6.89994-146.8999469423.94751708982 68.1416380266450.1257362143432616 1113124.5WETL
2023-03-11 03:00:08OBSERVATION2023161-12325.1000620.6000622.85006160.731305833330.389999999999990.929999999999994.95.83TF-6.89994-146.8999469423.94751708982 68.1416380266450.1257362143432616 1113124.5WETL
2023-03-10 11:00:03FORECAST2023161-12323.30615.9819.643162.203604712370.47244121.01244124.95.9124412TF-8.694-148.69469424.5968217663368.8711350399150.086703939804537161114126WETL
2023-03-10 07:00:13FORECAST2023161-12323.6315.51219.571162.364816538460.507874291.047874294.95.94787429TF-8.37-148.3769424.6677710846968.951104741960.092988711447722161114126WETL
2023-03-10 03:00:13FORECAST2023161-12324.40416.19620.3162.211043168040.492126251.032126254.95.93212625TF-7.596-147.59669424.6000960697468.8748245127230.1093483017561161114126WETL
2023-03-09 23:00:03FORECAST2023161-12324.40417.00620.705161.952250509150.625984591.145984594.96.04598459TF-7.596-145.59669424.4861428141768.7464861387030.1093483017561161114126WETL
2023-03-09 19:00:03FORECAST2023161-12323.68416.08819.886161.917722332860.614173561.134173564.96.03417356TF-8.316-146.31669424.470933480168.7293667456010.094068005719979161114126WETL
2023-03-09 15:00:01FORECAST2023161-12324.4418.06821.254162.174635341510.653543661.173543664.96.07354366TF-7.56-145.5669424.5840692676968.85676660530.11015644764293161114126WETL
2023-03-09 11:00:04FORECAST2023161-12324.33217.27620.804162.024277702630.523622331.043622334.95.94362233TF-7.668-145.66869424.5178658163968.7822005807620.1077447649314161114126WETL
2023-03-09 07:00:12FORECAST2023161-12324.94418.19421.569161.720878064810.559055421.079055424.95.97905542TF-7.056-145.05669424.3841999643568.6317854550660.12192114235531161114126WETL
2023-03-09 03:00:09FORECAST2023161-12323.9917.20420.597161.601366362990.566929441.026929444.95.92692944TF-8.01-147.0169424.331519560868.5725533519080.10035841743304161114126WETL
2023-03-08 23:00:04FORECAST2023161-12323.93617.9620.948160.675743924290.66929171.04929174.95.9492917TF-8.064-145.06469423.9229659220768.1141379161220.099226661530796161114126WETL
2023-03-08 19:00:02FORECAST2023161-12326.0617.99622.028160.261579113140.598425521.018425524.95.91842552TF-5.94-140.9469423.739849501467.9092174142570.15102471308741161114126WETL
2023-03-08 15:00:04FORECAST2023161-12325.17819.1322.154160.013825396760.614173560.974173564.95.87417356TF-6.822-142.82269423.6302169951567.7866915750540.12767231897643161113124.5WETL
2023-03-08 11:00:05FORECAST2023161-12323.82818.26621.047162.661261224840.795276021.145276024.96.04527602TF-8.172-146.17269424.7981605742569.0982045649990.096991110683159161114126WETL
2023-03-08 07:00:09FORECAST2023161-12323.61219.05821.335164.075591106680.956693431.326693434.96.22669343TT-8.388-146.38869425.4188956274569.8008567680230.092630981916698161114126WETL
2023-03-08 03:00:08FORECAST2023161-12324.04420.10222.073164.538135117591.039370641.479370644.96.37937064TT-7.956-145.95669425.6214180948370.0309543994270.10149953375822161114126WETL
2023-03-07 23:00:04FORECAST2023161-12323.10818.08620.597168.99206019151.011811571.481811574.936.41181157TT-8.892-150.89269427.5594175360672.2541468236950.083022241902845161114126WETL
2023-03-07 19:00:04FORECAST2023161-12322.24417.99620.12168.662532741450.960630441.420630444.936.35063044TT-9.756-151.75669427.4167828314272.0891971285480.068317778320111161114126WETL
2023-03-07 15:00:04FORECAST2023161-12322.92818.73420.831168.820781416841.011811571.461811574.936.39181157TT-9.072-152.07269427.4852950691672.1684015577820.07977808119043161114126WETL
2023-03-07 11:21:24FORECAST2023161-12325.37620.37222.874168.037141554420.917323331.367323334.936.29732333TT-6.624-147.62469427.1457561243771.776351886240.13268341797424161114126WETL
2023-03-07 11:00:02FORECAST2023161-12325.37620.37222.874189.037141554420.917323331.367323334.936.29732333TT-6.624-147.62469436.0151382728182.4230554135480.13268341797424161114126WETL
2023-03-07 07:00:17FORECAST2023161-12324.2618.521.38189.798469749731.011811571.451811574.956.40181157TT-7.74-151.7469436.3278844596582.814364779580.10615818357171161114126WETL
2023-03-07 03:00:13FORECAST2023161-12325.2521.39823.324189.903669241631.114173831.544173834.956.49417383TT-6.75-147.7569436.3710518454182.8684638962720.12947914065332161115127.5WETL
2023-03-06 23:00:05FORECAST2023161-12326.09621.77623.936173.876013862461.133858881.753858885.016.76385888TT-5.904-146.90469429.6594809101574.7074778588690.15203454460636161115127.5WETL
2023-03-06 19:00:07FORECAST2023161-12324.94421.21823.081174.790048820331.397638551.897638554.976.86763855TT-7.056-151.05669430.0496232462475.1683946423750.12192114235531161115127.5WETL
2023-03-06 15:00:05FORECAST2023161-12325.71820.89423.306175.445560385311.511811842.041811844.946.98181184TT-6.282-152.28269430.3288614883875.4992882538030.14165360993295161115127.5WETL
2023-03-06 11:00:05FORECAST2023161-12324.02619.5821.803172.968644563290.948819411.448819414.966.40881941TT-7.974-153.97469429.2712867869674.2504726254790.10111811977587161114126WETL
2023-03-06 07:00:09FORECAST2023161-12327.7719.23823.504170.263381763160.755905920.995905924.95.89590592TF-4.23-144.2369428.1085868307972.8912157556590.20390449189599161114126WETL
2023-03-06 03:00:12FORECAST2023161-12322.65818.57220.615171.523736230170.901575291.311575294.926.23157529TT-9.342-149.34269428.6512710295373.5238675467940.075092310592605161114126WETL
2023-03-05 23:00:05FORECAST2023161-12327.55418.78823.171170.243759565780.582677480.812677484.925.73267748TF-4.446-142.44669428.1001241511272.8813746060620.19667549448262161113124.5WETL
2023-03-05 19:00:05FORECAST2023161-12326.85219.7623.306170.23231193540.586614490.766614494.935.69661449TF-5.148-146.14869428.0951868115572.8756333793480.17427207265666161113124.5WETL
2023-03-05 15:00:05FORECAST2023161-12326.09619.86822.982171.429036195550.610236550.920236554.945.86023655TF-5.904-151.90469428.6105553672473.4762944098450.15203454460636161113124.5WETL
2023-03-05 11:00:05FORECAST2023161-12326.618.5922.595172.285035474750.696850770.956850774.865.81685077TF-5.4-153.469428.9782310872673.9065297607630.16664094650709161113124.5WETL
2023-03-05 07:00:19FORECAST2023161-12324.38618.55421.47172.025775098770.724409840.964409844.725.68440984TF-7.614-157.61469428.8669558605873.7761704961670.10894582460054161113124.5WETL
2023-03-05 03:00:10FORECAST2023161-12326.63619.7623.198168.825154705780.295275750.505275754.725.22527575TF-5.364-146.36469427.4871880514272.1705906575190.16771773842498161113124.5WETL
2023-03-04 23:00:06FORECAST2023161-12325.73619.11222.424162.876635914330.381889970.651889974.715.36188997TF-6.264-148.26469424.8928303347569.2051148290430.14213681131746161113124.5WETL
2023-03-04 19:00:04FORECAST2023161-12325.44819.2222.334164.200190128640.594488510.834488514.715.54448851TF-6.552-149.55269425.4734740718269.8628253372880.13453868624654161113124.5WETL
2023-03-04 15:00:07FORECAST2023161-12325.48419.6722.577165.346884634050.732283861.052283864.685.73228386TF-6.516-150.51669425.9749536083170.4336315112690.13547294764591161114126WETL
2023-03-04 11:00:05FORECAST2023161-12327.89618.62623.261166.035336033010.440945120.780945124.675.45094512TF-4.104-146.10469426.2753304805870.7767677389260.20819341670587161113124.5WETL
2023-03-04 07:00:15FORECAST2023161-12329.26419.14824.206166.457512375750.55118140.93118144.575.5011814TF-2.736-145.73669426.4592697646170.9873491745930.2580633126565162113126WETL
2023-03-04 03:00:18FORECAST2023161-12328.68819.29223.99165.395482779310.484252230.694252234.685.37425223TF-3.312-145.31269425.9961746040170.4578429607720.23634336837008161113124.5WETL
2023-03-03 23:00:04FORECAST2023161-12332.30619.14825.727163.62274647241.539370911.699370915.046.73937091TT0.306-147.69469425.2203893435869.5757279604620.387402453299471621151210WETL
2023-03-03 19:00:07FORECAST2023161-12332.28818.60825.448163.912000701641.523622871.733622874.986.71362287TT0.288-147.71269425.3472114509369.7195124217860.386579683149091621151210WETL
2023-03-03 15:00:05FORECAST2023161-12334.32218.9526.636163.931867968721.429134631.789134634.866.64913463TT2.322-142.67869425.3559187381669.7293903102960.481899477317411621151210WETL
2023-03-03 11:00:04FORECAST2023161-12334.9721.75828.364166.640571368831.224410111.734410115.166.89441011TT2.97-136.0369426.5389660043271.0786970060310.51275747018781631151212.5WETL
2023-03-03 07:00:09FORECAST2023161-12334.66422.83828.751168.213723069741.192914031.692914034.966.65291403TT2.664-134.33669427.2223251413871.8646578905420.498183859780751621151210WETL
2023-03-03 03:00:07FORECAST2023161-12332.73820.326.519167.13021347160.980315491.410315495.066.47031549TT0.738-140.26269426.7519536970671.3231451208140.40729259492175162114128WETL
2023-03-02 23:00:04FORECAST2023161-12336.71625.64631.181167.766856706121.665355232.105355235.37.40535523TT4.716-134.28469427.0284890720371.6412273355780.595011026993581631151212.5WETL
2023-03-02 19:00:04FORECAST2023161-12335.6925.66430.677168.8492526591.590552042.030552045.237.26055204TT3.69-139.3169427.4976184961272.1826533965710.546946745292861631151212.5WETL
2023-03-02 15:00:07FORECAST2023161-12334.73621.59628.166159.583430285540.23622060.35622065.555.9062206TF2.736-143.26469423.439600471767.5739439620120.50161344717289163112125WETL
2023-03-02 11:00:05FORECAST2023161-12334.719.92227.311162.155419531880.062992160.102992165.335.43299216TF2.7-144.369424.5756098301868.8472361350160.4998986525406163112125WETL
2023-03-02 07:00:13FORECAST2023161-12332.12618.3225.223162.217835232870.062992160.102992165.295.39299216TF0.126-151.87469424.6030857869768.878193409560.37919808989518162112124WETL
2023-03-02 03:00:17FORECAST2023161-12328.07619.43623.756163.985314239020.177165450.177165455.45.57716545TF-3.924-155.92469425.3793406158469.7559648416750.2144117398781161112123WETL
2023-03-01 23:00:07FORECAST2023161-12327.9519.05823.504174.30484334350.602362530.842362535.46.24236253TF-4.05-152.0569429.8426332408374.9236528493990.21004767130759161113124.5WETL
2023-03-01 19:00:06FORECAST2023161-12327.84219.23823.54172.143319267730.574803460.804803465.286.08480346TF-4.158-151.15869428.9174152032873.8352675448280.20634883715296161113124.5WETL
2023-03-01 15:00:06FORECAST2023161-12329.01216.64622.829178.797018200320.980315491.360315495.456.81031549TT-2.988-149.98869431.7492903745477.1954857290720.2484354921933161114126WETL
2023-03-01 11:00:08FORECAST2023161-12333.51221.81227.662174.107583977530.728346851.158346855.166.31834685TT1.512-131.48869429.7584088831374.8241982646680.44350048740511162114128WETL
2023-03-01 07:00:21FORECAST2023161-12332.2721.48826.879174.338312946040.7874021.2374025.066.297402TT0.27-133.7369429.8569196592674.9405301815770.38575742238397162114128WETL
2023-03-01 03:00:14FORECAST2023161-12336.1418.37427.257167.322526031090.307086780.327086785.255.57708678TF4.14-133.8669426.8355346356971.4191998550720.56815565636614163112125WETL
2023-02-28 23:00:04FORECAST2023161-12318.84218.84218.842160.55085841408004.954.95TF-13.158-153.15869423.8677700531268.0523343360890.028969055514195161111121.5WETL
2023-02-28 19:00:08FORECAST2023161-12322.47822.47822.478159.1906430471004.814.81TF-9.522-142.52269423.2654580378667.3799004446730.072086648329408161111121.5WETL
2023-02-28 15:00:08FORECAST2023161-12327.06827.06827.068160.941158196200.064.985.04TF-4.932-137.93269424.0402134053968.2455230672290.1809864918299161111121.5WETL
2023-02-28 11:00:04FORECAST2023161-12324.824.824.8162.8220627317500.094.864.95TF-7.2-135.269424.8688471308569.1780220803040.11847347018233161112123WETL
2023-02-28 07:00:11FORECAST2023161-12324.824.824.8162.9087927367800.14.915.01TF-7.2-138.269424.906960694269.2210799921450.11847347018233161112123WETL
2023-02-28 03:00:10FORECAST2023161-12321.9221.9221.92164.43335751870.015748040.325748044.614.93574804TF-10.08-156.0869425.575562615469.9788186387590.063351845348846161112123WETL