MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, February 9, 2023

[ Wednesday, February 8, 2023 | Index | Today | Friday, February 10, 2023 ]

DAY 132 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/10/2023 07:00:13 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 42.21°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.05°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.13°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.790
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 10
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 0

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.55 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.50 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.05 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 125 in
SWE DAY: 40
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 385.04 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 47.99 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -152

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 15.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-02-10 07:00:13OBSERVATION2023132-15242.2099622.0499632.12996124.6388583333301.554.56.05TT10.209960.2099640385.03524907492 47.9903538627890.7899944983316716 41151215WETL
2023-02-10 03:00:16OBSERVATION2023132-15242.2099622.0499632.12996124.6388583333301.554.56.05TT10.209960.2099640385.03524907492 47.9903538627890.7899944983316716 41151215WETL
2023-02-09 11:00:03FORECAST2023132-15236.71624.3530.533129.396996343520.141732361.691732364.56.19173236TT4.716-5.28440387.5923788860250.1532896334890.590398754811481631151212.5WETL
2023-02-09 07:00:11FORECAST2023132-15236.524.24230.371129.203433264680.094488241.644488244.56.14448824TT4.5-5.540387.4889556758450.0649034254630.581547963497631631151212.5WETL
2023-02-09 03:00:09FORECAST2023132-15236.57224.27830.425129.179316926430.086614221.636614224.56.13661422TT4.572-5.42840387.4760664475350.053893589030.584503051825651631151212.5WETL
2023-02-08 23:00:01FORECAST2023132-15236.44624.5330.488123.250441569640.094488241.434488244.55.93448824TF4.446-10.55440384.28323957347.3630789651820.579328613734461631141210WETL
2023-02-08 19:00:02FORECAST2023132-15236.57224.830.686123.308056079850.110236281.450236284.55.95023628TF4.572-10.42840384.314498145347.38907368960.584503051825651631141210WETL
2023-02-08 15:00:01FORECAST2023132-15235.85224.87230.362123.326874381390.106299271.446299274.55.94629927TF3.852-11.14840384.3247069649247.3975648575290.554764439786521631141210WETL
2023-02-08 11:00:06FORECAST2023132-15235.54624.27829.912124.746698570630.133858341.473858344.55.97385834TF3.546-11.45440385.0935477686848.0391487249950.54202140392881631141210WETL
2023-02-08 07:00:14FORECAST2023132-15235.56424.22429.894124.644792213470.141732361.481732364.55.98173236TF3.564-11.43640385.0384573600947.9930385118440.542772321739011631141210WETL
2023-02-08 03:00:17FORECAST2023132-15235.34824.02629.687124.785312871610.102362261.512362264.56.01236226TT3.348-11.65240385.1144188710248.0566232501880.533751993505451631151212.5WETL
2023-02-07 23:00:04FORECAST2023132-15233.85423.91828.886118.892779734850.125984321.865984324.56.36598432TT1.854-16.14640381.9056971835345.4058299347260.471137114595861621151210WETL
2023-02-07 19:00:04FORECAST2023132-15234.08824.11629.102118.930395336470.11811031.86811034.56.3681103TT2.088-14.91240381.9263330770445.422649782260.480936572718981621151210WETL
2023-02-07 15:00:04FORECAST2023132-15235.2424.09829.669118.543389633970.110236281.810236284.56.31023628TT3.24-13.7640381.7139277741845.2496628688490.529235025710931631151212.5WETL
2023-02-07 11:00:07FORECAST2023132-15235.1524.51229.831123.855057756210.090551231.770551234.56.27055123TT3.15-12.8540384.6110444232447.6360231207180.525467985705931631151212.5WETL
2023-02-07 07:00:12FORECAST2023132-15235.11424.1729.642123.958123839810.07874021.75874024.56.2587402TT3.114-13.88640384.6668735728347.6825839514130.523960512944281631151212.5WETL
2023-02-07 03:00:12FORECAST2023132-15234.91623.12629.021124.72656544620.098425251.968425254.56.46842525TT2.916-14.08440385.0826649651148.0300382139690.515663859153291631151212.5WETL
2023-02-06 23:00:04FORECAST2023132-15234.3422.51428.427120.835042489980.059055151.919055154.46.31905515TT2.34-14.6640382.9686480066546.2760328542140.491502564112271621151210WETL
2023-02-06 19:00:06FORECAST2023132-15234.46622.40628.436120.041329086770.031496081.711496084.46.11149608TT2.466-14.53440382.5349024381645.9199981107530.496788260901621621151210WETL
2023-02-06 15:00:04FORECAST2023132-15233.9822.44228.211120.2493004232301.784.46.18TT1.98-17.0240382.6486384037746.0132310759550.476411954209271621151210WETL
2023-02-06 11:00:06FORECAST2023132-15233.76420.73227.248122.0142434587901.944.46.34TT1.764-16.23640383.6114409255146.8060597466610.473279288658751621151210WETL
2023-02-06 07:00:11FORECAST2023132-15233.60220.37226.987122.82939827593024.426.42TT1.602-16.39840384.0546649330347.1732033987890.466464445847291621151210WETL
2023-02-06 03:00:12FORECAST2023132-15234.3420.55227.446122.1644962959701.864.416.27TT2.34-15.6640383.6932068803546.8736873507230.497559473010531621151210WETL
2023-02-05 23:00:05FORECAST2023132-15233.94420.71427.329116.949032573201.884.286.16TT1.944-19.05640380.8366710860244.5384802519070.480860432526131621151210WETL
2023-02-05 19:00:06FORECAST2023132-15233.85420.85827.356117.2350730677201.954.296.24TT1.854-19.14640380.9943196208244.6658968991340.477068823205121621151210WETL
2023-02-05 15:00:07FORECAST2023132-15233.13420.08426.609117.0564403703601.914.286.19TT1.134-19.86640380.8958813156844.5863160185450.446839265583481621151210WETL
2023-02-05 11:00:10FORECAST2023132-15233.90820.33627.122118.220508051280.007874021.677874024.195.86787402TF1.908-17.09240381.5365566984745.1054455730310.479343561731351621151210WETL
2023-02-05 07:00:18FORECAST2023132-15233.9820.28227.131118.490333322360.007874021.727874024.225.94787402TT1.98-16.0240381.6847919205445.2259582187390.482377580494641621151210WETL
2023-02-05 03:00:16FORECAST2023132-15233.45819.81426.636118.3819800684501.754.25.95TT1.458-16.54240381.6252775730345.1775560032670.460414988370851621151210WETL
2023-02-04 23:00:08FORECAST2023132-15234.14219.61626.879116.1520445004401.744.095.83TF2.142-17.85840380.3968139380744.1838676603620.489207587841971621151210WETL
2023-02-04 19:00:06FORECAST2023132-15233.6219.63426.627117.0275599603201.94.16TT1.62-19.3840380.8799621252644.5734526052990.467221202064991621151210WETL
2023-02-04 15:00:07FORECAST2023132-15233.818.526.15117.7807658010802.123.936.05TT1.8-18.240381.2947555498344.9091883045940.474794831608651621151210WETL
2023-02-04 11:00:06FORECAST2023132-15232.88219.00425.943117.2480649216701.753.875.62TF0.882-21.11840381.001477240344.6716859387240.436322446679481621151210WETL
2023-02-04 07:00:14FORECAST2023132-15232.918.96825.934117.0472370461301.73.885.58TF0.9-19.140380.8908084718544.5822167478960.437072247556281621151210WETL
2023-02-04 03:00:20FORECAST2023132-15231.58617.67224.629117.2729277233101.693.975.66TF-0.414-21.41440381.0151742783644.682764994630.3830992122751621151210WETL
2023-02-03 23:00:06FORECAST2023132-15230.3818.0524.215118.0565504297801.634.265.89TF-1.62-34.6240381.4464328673545.0322500380650.335459599934031621151210WETL
2023-02-03 19:00:08FORECAST2023132-15229.9318.44624.188118.1356419264601.734.175.9TT-2.07-33.0740381.4899123767845.0675556870980.318293641790491621151210WETL
2023-02-03 15:00:06FORECAST2023132-15228.95818.87823.918116.1749795614801.314.325.63TF-3.042-31.04240380.4094842290944.1940640553080.28255402181503162114128WETL
2023-02-03 11:00:08FORECAST2023132-15227.60818.26622.937117.1865845592301.054.295.34TF-4.392-32.39240380.9676036960444.6442923048540.23636183832174161114126WETL
2023-02-03 07:00:18FORECAST2023132-15227.64418.33822.991116.7392596342014.255.25TF-4.356-30.35640380.720983876744.4450857849690.23753732506103161114126WETL
2023-02-03 03:00:18FORECAST2023132-15228.36418.19423.279117.5978903580701.134.275.4TF-3.636-32.63640381.1941182571644.8276241239470.26170640474991162114128WETL
2023-02-02 23:00:06FORECAST2023132-15227.93218.93223.432119.451378620440.102362261.022362264.155.17236226TF-4.068-39.06840382.2119414853445.6557433356180.24705556068882161114126WETL
2023-02-02 19:00:08FORECAST2023132-15228.07619.43623.756119.188281675380.102362261.022362264.125.14236226TF-3.924-36.92440382.0677562656745.5379993528740.25188998318154162114128WETL
2023-02-02 15:00:08FORECAST2023132-15229.13823.05426.096126.753336147410.704724792.304724794.046.34472479TT-2.862-33.86240386.1754328943848.9490244575340.289025314908491621151210WETL
2023-02-02 11:00:07FORECAST2023132-15230.32621.90226.114131.248557627570.822835093.042835094.117.15283509TT-1.674-33.67440388.5791262682151.0004498468830.333380555851311621151210WETL
2023-02-02 07:00:16FORECAST2023132-15230.36221.77626.069130.357211006850.771653962.921653964.036.95165396TT-1.638-28.63840388.1046826641150.5922440107930.334766021683361621151210WETL
2023-02-02 03:00:15FORECAST2023132-15230.14620.80425.475123.315942329210.342519871.7925198745.79251987TF-1.854-33.85440384.3187764493147.3926320726580.326487568359091621151210WETL
2023-02-01 23:00:06FORECAST2023132-15231.69422.87427.284123.285596975020.385826981.255826984.035.28582698TF-0.306-32.30640384.3023135722547.3789401476360.38746580069629162114128WETL
2023-02-01 19:00:06FORECAST2023132-15232.39622.74827.572122.776315591630.334645851.264645853.95.16464585TF0.396-33.60440384.0258302187847.1492765262790.41617289146622162114128WETL
2023-02-01 15:00:07FORECAST2023132-15231.15419.61625.385125.3992943669301.594.035.62TF-0.846-32.84640385.446002129248.3346566835580.365785968372621621151210WETL
2023-02-01 11:00:09FORECAST2023132-15231.26219.41825.34138.3153697588302.895.047.93TT-0.738-31.73840392.3028538634854.261514289570.370090294709881621151210WETL
2023-02-01 07:00:17FORECAST2023132-15231.2819.425.34138.7517298723702.875.127.99TT-0.72-35.7240392.5306021880454.4643000814340.370809283212151621151210WETL
2023-02-01 03:00:15FORECAST2023132-15231.29820.67825.988139.965865203190.720472832.770472835.398.16047283TT-0.702-35.70240393.1629660662655.0293947113180.371528722915761621151210WETL
2023-01-31 23:00:06FORECAST2023132-15230.88421.16426.024143.11772949110.874016223.374016224.437.80401622TT-1.116-33.11640394.795493055556.5022345794220.355099825076361621151210WETL
2023-01-31 19:00:03FORECAST2023132-15230.8321.14625.988143.533005160890.874016223.374016224.467.83401622TT-1.17-36.1740395.0096147826356.6969170771950.352975883932051621151210WETL
2023-01-31 15:00:07FORECAST2023132-15231.42419.97625.7147.750406161480.763779943.563779944.898.45377994TT-0.576-38.57640397.1714173695758.6822382320830.376577238811591621151210WETL
2023-01-31 11:00:06FORECAST2023132-15230.45218.69824.575143.849963295210.562992433.002992435.288.28299243TT-1.548-43.54840395.1728907544756.8456058302930.338239500516371621151210WETL
2023-01-31 07:00:18FORECAST2023132-15230.41618.48224.449138.384975710930.562992433.002992435.348.34299243TT-1.584-42.58440392.3392000445754.2938506686150.336848436836571621151210WETL
2023-01-31 03:00:15FORECAST2023132-15229.9318.17624.053144.399817761460.19685052.80685055.077.8768505TT-2.07-40.0740395.4558279615157.103749490350.318293641790491621151210WETL
2023-01-30 23:00:07FORECAST2023132-15222.71222.71222.712142.217023118590.043307111.853307114.676.52330711TT-9.288-50.28840394.3302998150356.0804813651560.10819333427279161115127.5WETL
2023-01-30 19:00:05FORECAST2023132-15222.71222.71222.712142.185751846830.043307111.853307114.656.50330711TT-9.288-50.28840394.3141298289856.0658510135640.10819333427279161115127.5WETL
2023-01-30 15:00:07FORECAST2023132-15220.78620.78620.786129.7510096144801.034.045.07TF-11.214-53.21440387.7814011791650.3150283127150.074895796568929161114126WETL
2023-01-30 11:00:08FORECAST2023132-15219.2219.2219.22141.8369783311902.24.626.82TT-12.78-57.7840394.1336963055655.9027325424820.054098913626981161115127.5WETL
2023-01-30 07:00:16FORECAST2023132-15219.2219.2219.22141.1761049891202.24.66.8TT-12.78-55.7840393.7913632186255.5939308375590.054098913626981161115127.5WETL
2023-01-30 03:00:20FORECAST2023132-15227.60827.60827.608135.019866899980.015748041.365748044.555.91574804TF-4.392-41.39240390.5746641850752.7353391727710.23636183832174161114126WETL