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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, February 8, 2023

[ Tuesday, February 7, 2023 | Index | Today | Thursday, February 9, 2023 ]

DAY 131 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/09/2023 07:00:09 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 29.69°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 20.50°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 25.10°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.314
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -19

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.49 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.94 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.88 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.82 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 129 in
SWE DAY: 39
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 386.57 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 49.86 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -153

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-02-09 07:00:09OBSERVATION2023131-15329.6900620.4999825.09502128.990883750.490000000000011.944.886.82TT-2.30994-19.3099439386.57381351813 49.8644978403110.3135643869686416 21151210WETL
2023-02-09 03:00:08OBSERVATION2023131-15329.6900620.4999825.09502128.990883750.490000000000011.944.886.82TT-2.30994-19.3099439386.57381351813 49.8644978403110.3135643869686416 21151210WETL
2023-02-08 11:00:03FORECAST2023131-15324.96217.97821.47124.303062216470.27559071.72559074.886.6055907TT-7.038-24.03839384.0424981578947.7376585422890.15539482144232161115127.5WETL
2023-02-08 07:00:14FORECAST2023131-15324.58417.5121.047124.163097341630.283464721.733464724.886.61346472TT-7.416-24.41639383.9664559940547.6744644515110.14553320887997161115127.5WETL
2023-02-08 03:00:16FORECAST2023131-15324.69217.22220.957124.449613325480.346456881.796456884.886.67645688TT-7.308-24.30839384.1220896207547.8038455230790.14830698772728161115127.5WETL
2023-02-07 23:00:02FORECAST2023131-15324.33217.56420.948118.410398472540.27559072.12559074.887.0055907TT-7.668-26.66839380.8175403182145.0927566944130.13919710431699161115127.5WETL
2023-02-07 19:00:02FORECAST2023131-15324.5317.70821.119118.491164315760.291338742.141338744.887.02133874TT-7.47-26.4739380.8620691842945.1287900213560.14415944939663161115127.5WETL
2023-02-07 15:00:01FORECAST2023131-15325.1617.72621.443118.150939454860.23622062.08622064.886.9662206TT-6.84-25.8439380.6744302023244.977041554850.16073197765546161115127.5WETL
2023-02-07 11:00:06FORECAST2023131-15325.6118.6822.145123.582748405310.220472562.070472564.886.95047256TT-6.39-25.3939383.6508669424947.4126285648310.17330047460471161115127.5WETL
2023-02-07 07:00:11FORECAST2023131-15325.17819.43622.307123.736884405030.232283592.072283594.886.95228359TT-6.822-25.82239383.7347302259147.4821399561610.16122302486774161115127.5WETL
2023-02-07 03:00:11FORECAST2023131-15324.81819.3122.064124.415059069790.240157612.260157614.887.14015761TT-7.182-26.18239384.1033259784347.7882379905080.15158735872265161115127.5WETL
2023-02-06 23:00:03FORECAST2023131-15324.818.78821.794120.618961217530.27559072.14559074.887.0255907TT-7.2-26.239382.0319091730746.0802920364070.15111581191409161115127.5WETL
2023-02-06 19:00:05FORECAST2023131-15324.81818.10421.461119.951407589310.271653691.971653694.886.85165369TT-7.182-26.18239381.6655757266645.7813230367970.15158735872265161115127.5WETL
2023-02-06 15:00:04FORECAST2023131-15324.3518.51821.434120.289349223230.287401732.067401734.886.94740173TT-7.65-27.6539381.8511056096745.9326209939580.13964337686016161115127.5WETL
2023-02-06 11:00:06FORECAST2023131-15324.40418.35621.38122.045731458790.330708842.230708844.887.11070884TT-7.596-26.59639382.812798535146.7206680090020.14295250444317161115127.5WETL
2023-02-06 07:00:10FORECAST2023131-15324.38618.35621.371122.855867875930.35433092.31433094.887.1943309TT-7.614-26.61439383.2549384091147.0851180759880.14250127874884161115127.5WETL
2023-02-06 03:00:11FORECAST2023131-15324.22418.53621.38122.197263495970.303149772.163149774.887.04314977TT-7.776-26.77639382.8955678140946.7887905916170.1384834857714161115127.5WETL
2023-02-05 23:00:04FORECAST2023131-15324.18818.03221.11116.98504697320.283464722.243464724.696.93346472TT-7.812-29.81239380.0301921475344.4578498796130.13760119971824161115127.5WETL
2023-02-05 19:00:05FORECAST2023131-15323.95418.37421.164117.269021067720.334645852.324645854.697.01464585TT-8.046-30.04639380.1872837148844.5841905836420.1319596564703161115127.5WETL
2023-02-05 15:00:06FORECAST2023131-15323.61217.90620.759117.068838770360.263779672.273779674.696.96377967TT-8.388-30.38839380.0765566984344.4951211365220.12400389845745161115127.5WETL
2023-02-05 11:00:09FORECAST2023131-15324.33217.97821.155118.220395641190.263779671.943779674.696.63377967TT-7.668-27.66839380.7127494776245.0080118688880.14115337001629161115127.5WETL
2023-02-05 07:00:18FORECAST2023131-15323.8118.01420.912118.493398825330.291338742.031338744.686.71133874TT-8.19-27.1939380.8633010130645.1297870248710.12856808669012161115127.5WETL
2023-02-05 03:00:16FORECAST2023131-15323.77417.99620.885118.405891268450.291338742.081338744.646.72133874TT-8.226-27.22639380.8150550792145.0907460050980.12772970329481161115127.5WETL
2023-02-04 23:00:08FORECAST2023131-15323.43217.72620.579116.186582900440.307086782.067086784.536.59708678TT-8.568-28.56839379.5878822912744.1030189538380.11995381712124161115127.5WETL
2023-02-04 19:00:06FORECAST2023131-15323.4517.74420.597117.052553560320.291338742.201338744.576.77133874TT-8.55-29.5539380.0675463687444.4878768278670.12035459117527161115127.5WETL
2023-02-04 15:00:06FORECAST2023131-15324.00817.31220.66117.813729801080.594488512.374488514.456.82448851TT-7.992-28.99239380.4882940794144.8267450711440.13324721657784161115127.5WETL
2023-02-04 11:00:05FORECAST2023131-15323.21617.72620.471117.260168121670.448819141.968819144.426.38881914TT-8.784-30.78439380.1823880665544.5802507415840.11521757527909161115127.5WETL
2023-02-04 07:00:13FORECAST2023131-15323.23417.70820.471117.059832246130.448819141.848819144.56.34881914TT-8.766-28.76639380.0715735878444.4911146457140.11560712528172161115127.5WETL
2023-02-04 03:00:18FORECAST2023131-15323.41417.4220.417117.272927723310.500000271.870000274.566.43000027TT-8.586-29.58639380.1894440468144.5859291928660.11955398183006161115127.5WETL
2023-02-03 23:00:05FORECAST2023131-15322.42417.85220.138118.056550429780.47244121.78244124.886.6624412TT-9.576-41.57639380.6223445360744.9349610124250.098988809010977161115127.5WETL
2023-02-03 19:00:07FORECAST2023131-1532318.60820.804118.135641926460.503937281.843937284.836.67393728TT-9-4039380.6659895819644.9702210388340.11061540708929161115127.5WETL
2023-02-03 15:00:06FORECAST2023131-15324.92619.23822.082116.174979561480.456693161.446693164.956.39669316TT-7.074-37.07439379.5814479967244.0978669629360.15645721607163161114126WETL
2023-02-03 11:00:07FORECAST2023131-15325.68218.06821.875117.186584559230.381889971.151889974.966.11188997TF-6.318-37.31839380.1416923523844.5475065753420.17745469401499161114126WETL
2023-02-03 07:00:18FORECAST2023131-15325.62818.12221.875116.73925963420.362204921.182204924.846.02220492TF-6.372-35.37239379.8941335948744.348559895240.17589851083611161114126WETL
2023-02-03 03:00:18FORECAST2023131-15325.2518.19421.722117.597890358070.488189241.328189244.846.16818924TT-6.75-37.7539380.3690693063444.7306001078890.16524777891945161114126WETL
2023-02-02 23:00:06FORECAST2023131-15325.53820.73223.135118.713021573490.547244391.117244394.725.83724439TF-6.462-44.46239380.9843393883545.2278021009710.17332409766947161114126WETL
2023-02-02 19:00:08FORECAST2023131-15326.65420.87623.765118.460308898550.547244391.117244394.695.80724439TF-5.346-42.34639380.8450586561245.115023290890.20693296974148161114126WETL
2023-02-02 15:00:08FORECAST2023131-15327.60821.90224.755122.151308994611.212599081.822599084.596.41259908TT-4.392-40.39239382.8704700788246.7681290955080.23850225806925161115127.5WETL
2023-02-02 11:00:07FORECAST2023131-15327.62622.85625.241125.875870952371.586615032.486615034.617.09661503TT-4.374-41.37439384.8951405445348.4490110413760.23912216543493161115127.5WETL
2023-02-02 07:00:16FORECAST2023131-15328.38222.6425.511125.373371405051.543307922.413307924.546.95330792TT-3.618-35.61839384.6230984637148.2214945746530.265934976396261621151210WETL
2023-02-02 03:00:15FORECAST2023131-15326.45620.89423.675121.074206913460.807087051.747087054.476.21708705TT-5.544-40.54439382.2813783805146.2844147052040.20070450613513161115127.5WETL
2023-02-01 23:00:05FORECAST2023131-15325.3419.97622.658120.500043807960.251968641.211968644.465.67196864TF-6.66-40.6639381.966696320446.0270036397910.16774511468982161114126WETL
2023-02-01 19:00:06FORECAST2023131-15324.819.72422.262120.417351724630.31496081.27496084.335.6049608TF-7.2-43.239381.9213373811745.989956014570.15312317012972161114126WETL
2023-02-01 15:00:07FORECAST2023131-15327.12222.83824.98125.399294366931.027559612.017559614.376.38755961TT-4.878-40.87839384.6371410746248.2332260780720.2221009751319161115127.5WETL
2023-02-01 11:00:08FORECAST2023131-15327.3221.39824.359138.315369758831.53543394.04543394.658.6954339TT-4.68-39.6839391.5200984147254.1532471802450.22870414434564161115127.5WETL
2023-02-01 07:00:17FORECAST2023131-15327.28421.3824.332138.751729872371.523622874.043622874.728.76362287TT-4.716-43.71639391.7487138293554.3558117190980.22749544679858161115127.5WETL
2023-02-01 03:00:15FORECAST2023131-15326.2422.35224.296134.845658411560.704724793.234724794.988.21472479TT-5.76-43.7639389.693220175852.5484388531250.19403949747647161115127.5WETL
2023-01-31 23:00:05FORECAST2023131-15326.38422.62224.503135.604387264010.637795623.117795624.587.69779562TT-5.616-40.61639390.0940839126652.8984692242910.19846774920559161115127.5WETL
2023-01-31 19:00:03FORECAST2023131-15326.38422.6424.512136.017067398440.637795623.117795624.617.72779562TT-5.616-43.61639390.311793518753.0890655254370.19846774920559161115127.5WETL
2023-01-31 15:00:06FORECAST2023131-15326.99621.72224.359141.213497290391.346457423.366457425.098.45645742TT-5.004-47.00439393.0337332598655.5016680267220.21795614764968161115127.5WETL
2023-01-31 11:00:06FORECAST2023131-15327.39222.40624.899141.791889112631.429134633.049134635.448.48913463TT-4.608-50.60839393.3344844389755.7716396017430.23113230427164161115127.5WETL
2023-01-31 07:00:17FORECAST2023131-15327.37422.38824.881137.242051091521.429134633.049134635.58.54913463TT-4.626-49.62639390.956691817553.6556982729910.23052392141291161115127.5WETL
2023-01-31 03:00:15FORECAST2023131-15328.25623.79226.024142.519807730421.618111113.348111115.18.44811111TT-3.744-46.74439393.71235890356.1118096919470.261362857245011621151210WETL
2023-01-30 23:00:06FORECAST2023131-15328.2222.92825.574141.685061098971.472441742.422441744.837.25244174TT-3.78-49.7839393.2789694551855.7217548161960.260063982852911621151210WETL
2023-01-30 19:00:05FORECAST2023131-15328.2222.92825.574141.653789827211.472441742.402441744.837.23244174TT-3.78-49.7839393.2627159596655.7071541134270.260063982852911621151210WETL
2023-01-30 15:00:06FORECAST2023131-15327.35620.04823.702129.751009614480.452756151.372756154.475.84275615TF-4.644-50.64439386.9814315239350.2112314422880.22991643307269161114126WETL
2023-01-30 11:00:08FORECAST2023131-15325.17818.06821.623141.836978331190.535433362.935433364.657.58543336TT-6.822-53.82239393.3579112935255.792697540540.16326728188067161115127.5WETL
2023-01-30 07:00:16FORECAST2023131-15325.1618.06821.614141.176104989120.535433362.935433364.637.56543336TT-6.84-51.8439393.0142748660755.4842245307150.16277457117937161115127.5WETL
2023-01-30 03:00:20FORECAST2023131-15328.05821.7424.899134.874879828910.535433361.995433364.676.66543336TT-3.942-45.94239389.7086732092252.5619104673760.254260448874731621151210WETL
2023-01-29 23:00:05FORECAST2023131-15324.76424.76424.764144.742887339060.15748042.45748045.17.5574804TT-7.236-53.23639394.8620802953957.1534776026620.15217927548346161115127.5WETL
2023-01-29 19:00:04FORECAST2023131-15324.824.824.8144.603524128540.15748042.45748045.17.5574804TT-7.2-53.239394.7901956916757.0880535884110.15312317012972161115127.5WETL
2023-01-29 15:00:10FORECAST2023131-15327.12227.12227.122137.185086602230.153543391.733543395.116.84354339TT-4.878-45.87839390.9267470647553.6293196512030.2221009751319161115127.5WETL
2023-01-29 11:00:08FORECAST2023131-15324.92624.92624.926118.92901150916004.624.62TF-7.074-45.07439381.1033098138645.3242399190320.15645721607163161111121.5WETL
2023-01-29 07:00:16FORECAST2023131-15324.83624.83624.836118.70743771319004.624.62TF-7.164-44.16439380.981262850645.2253095297310.15407092648838161111121.5WETL
2023-01-29 03:00:21FORECAST2023131-15326.63626.63626.636121.269139440970.015748040.255748044.644.89574804TF-5.364-43.36439382.3881109057146.3718771419920.20636207226571161112123WETL