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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, February 7, 2023

[ Monday, February 6, 2023 | Index | Today | Wednesday, February 8, 2023 ]

DAY 130 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/08/2023 07:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 29.79°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 21.80°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 25.79°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.269
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -15

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.06 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.33 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.86 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.19 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 123 in
SWE DAY: 38
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 382.41 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 46.96 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -154

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-02-08 07:00:12OBSERVATION2023130-15429.7899621.7999425.79495122.798453478261.05999999999992.32999999999994.867.1899999999999TT-2.21004-15.2100438382.40631176582 46.9589036851680.268749652838816 21151210WETL
2023-02-08 03:00:14OBSERVATION2023130-15429.7899621.7999425.79495122.798453478261.05999999999992.32999999999994.867.1899999999999TT-2.21004-15.2100438382.40631176582 46.9589036851680.268749652838816 21151210WETL
2023-02-07 11:00:03FORECAST2023130-15427.9519.52623.738122.517507638361.460630712.730630714.867.59063071TT-4.05-17.0538382.2524800647146.8326211461120.19448579843196161115127.5WETL
2023-02-07 07:00:10FORECAST2023130-15428.32821.30824.818122.637038648481.452756692.722756694.867.58275669TT-3.672-16.67238382.3179426040646.8863403031420.20863456654607161115127.5WETL
2023-02-07 03:00:11FORECAST2023130-15428.4920.4824.485123.240833265811.633859152.903859154.867.76385915TT-3.51-16.5138382.6483141101647.1578970786930.21487909818176161115127.5WETL
2023-02-06 23:00:01FORECAST2023130-15428.70620.01224.359119.145828562671.582678022.752678024.867.61267802TT-3.294-17.29438380.3977299547445.3228027188180.22337141620294161115127.5WETL
2023-02-06 19:00:02FORECAST2023130-15428.77820.31824.548118.504959665981.405512572.575512574.867.43551257TT-3.222-17.22238380.0433899172145.037026593460.22624399288724161115127.5WETL
2023-02-06 15:00:01FORECAST2023130-15428.4920.06624.278118.778853025231.488189782.658189784.867.51818978TT-3.51-17.5138380.1948976860345.1591138731920.21487909818176161115127.5WETL
2023-02-06 11:00:05FORECAST2023130-15428.63420.44424.539120.350213118611.61417412.78417414.867.6441741TT-3.366-17.36638381.0620824563645.8609028350450.22389223338437161115127.5WETL
2023-02-06 07:00:10FORECAST2023130-15428.59820.62424.611120.978653596461.649607192.839607194.867.69960719TT-3.402-17.40238381.407931454446.1422180183640.22245679603977161115127.5WETL
2023-02-06 03:00:11FORECAST2023130-15428.50820.37224.44120.608483376781.559055962.739055964.867.59905596TT-3.492-17.49238381.2042828828345.9764704152310.21889121665803161115127.5WETL
2023-02-05 23:00:04FORECAST2023130-15427.80620.08423.945115.322844628521.602363072.652363074.867.51236307TT-4.194-20.19438378.2754128617943.6237966642510.19222783350714161115127.5WETL
2023-02-05 19:00:05FORECAST2023130-15427.73420.13823.936115.371902189511.622048122.682048124.867.54204812TT-4.266-20.26638378.3027777431543.6455110718040.18960996774462161115127.5WETL
2023-02-05 15:00:05FORECAST2023130-15427.5920.28223.936115.540410575111.649607192.699607194.867.55960719TT-4.41-20.4138378.3967477240643.7201155923260.1844402876727161115127.5WETL
2023-02-05 11:00:08FORECAST2023130-15428.56220.64224.602116.71155134591.413386592.373386594.867.23338659TT-3.438-18.43838379.048733301844.2393656993510.22102661225097161115127.5WETL
2023-02-05 07:00:17FORECAST2023130-15428.79620.73224.764116.858556908921.429134632.419134634.867.27913463TT-3.204-17.20438379.1304358255744.3046356108250.23041633479811161115127.5WETL
2023-02-05 03:00:16FORECAST2023130-15428.83220.73224.782116.757368852181.45669372.42669374.867.2866937TT-3.168-17.16838379.0742009568444.2597063034650.23188041050352161115127.5WETL
2023-02-04 23:00:08FORECAST2023130-15428.77821.63225.205114.387122893441.433071642.413071644.747.15307164TT-3.222-18.22238377.7528030063543.2100563008280.22968623605748161115127.5WETL
2023-02-04 19:00:06FORECAST2023130-15428.74221.9225.331115.300347847411.61417412.60417414.747.3441741TT-3.258-19.25838378.2628627537243.613839653260.22822992635284161115127.5WETL
2023-02-04 15:00:06FORECAST2023130-15428.90421.30825.106114.289523905871.531496892.351496894.747.09149689TT-3.096-19.09638377.6982214366143.1669499080850.23482402016418161115127.5WETL
2023-02-04 11:00:05FORECAST2023130-15427.46421.72224.593114.657583524031.295276292.055276294.746.79527629TT-4.536-19.53638377.9039855917543.329557792050.17998931768771161115127.5WETL
2023-02-04 07:00:13FORECAST2023130-15427.69821.72224.71114.456953386531.251969181.921969184.846.76196918TT-4.302-18.30238377.7918469314443.2409038140440.18830928136271161115127.5WETL
2023-02-04 03:00:18FORECAST2023130-15428.14822.60425.376114.351080530161.188977021.838977024.956.78897702TT-3.852-18.85238377.7326481356743.1941364658330.20496124946597161115127.5WETL
2023-02-03 23:00:05FORECAST2023130-15427.60822.53225.07115.002103891011.161417951.811417955.247.05141795TT-4.392-30.39238378.0964158767143.4818832994740.18508167108916161115127.5WETL
2023-02-03 19:00:07FORECAST2023130-15427.57223.01825.295114.921064686361.228347121.848347125.187.02834712TT-4.428-29.42838378.0511669424643.4460426109490.18380028552936161115127.5WETL
2023-02-03 15:00:05FORECAST2023130-15428.70624.78226.744113.525034658220.846457151.556457155.246.79645715TT-3.294-28.29438377.2702176158742.8296145303580.22677881287349161115127.5WETL
2023-02-03 11:00:07FORECAST2023130-15429.08424.76426.924115.132100147380.665354691.335354695.256.58535469TT-2.916-28.91638378.168980949343.5393889872870.2422724597889161114126WETL
2023-02-03 07:00:17FORECAST2023130-15428.99424.58426.789114.746402928190.641732631.371732635.156.52173263TT-3.006-27.00638377.9536113776143.3688173792980.2385323509172161114126WETL
2023-02-03 03:00:17FORECAST2023130-15429.8425.32227.581114.800436688520.641732631.301732635.246.54173263TT-2.16-29.1638377.9837960135443.3927048435380.27490403228601162114128WETL
2023-02-02 23:00:05FORECAST2023130-15429.17423.43226.303115.104218692250.370078941.190078944.966.15007894TT-2.826-35.82638378.1534192900943.5270538731880.24604407596493161114126WETL
2023-02-02 19:00:08FORECAST2023130-15429.24623.57626.411114.899253316810.370078941.220078944.96.12007894TT-2.754-34.75438378.0389867865543.4363973064180.24908386489707162114128WETL
2023-02-02 15:00:07FORECAST2023130-15428.88622.65825.772114.605267524470.389763991.159763994.96.05976399TF-3.114-34.11438377.8747499984143.306436814310.23408619041558161114126WETL
2023-02-02 11:00:06FORECAST2023130-15427.6823.46825.574116.179712053470.633858611.363858615.016.37385861TT-4.32-35.3238378.7528935207944.0034021086630.18766100277031161114126WETL
2023-02-02 07:00:16FORECAST2023130-15428.32823.32425.826115.996960371850.606299541.306299544.966.26629954TT-3.672-29.67238378.6511441714843.9223817652170.21185938466028161114126WETL
2023-02-02 03:00:14FORECAST2023130-15427.80620.8424.323116.023971100840.637795621.407795624.866.26779562TT-4.194-33.19438378.6661857169243.9343545884850.19222783350714161114126WETL
2023-02-01 23:00:05FORECAST2023130-15428.09420.24624.17118.6064336410.618110571.418110574.866.27811057TT-3.906-31.90638380.0995338930945.0822501436660.20291808702573161114126WETL
2023-02-01 19:00:06FORECAST2023130-15427.03221.224.116118.091757347350.622047581.392047584.766.15204758TT-4.968-33.96838379.8146219930844.8529761773830.16524539239384161114126WETL
2023-02-01 15:00:06FORECAST2023130-15426.94222.20824.575118.386095981510.562992431.362992434.866.22299243TT-5.058-34.05838379.9776060792144.9840653441160.16227475759482161114126WETL
2023-02-01 11:00:08FORECAST2023130-15428.6723.77426.222128.150876760551.354331443.124331444.98.02433144TT-3.33-33.3338385.3161571702349.3786033713690.22533291039104161115127.5WETL
2023-02-01 07:00:16FORECAST2023130-15428.34622.3725.358128.666828470591.346457423.136457424.968.09645742TT-3.654-36.65438385.5945695112649.6132303344970.21255657542364161115127.5WETL
2023-02-01 03:00:15FORECAST2023130-15430.00221.99225.997130.049307416491.354331443.414331444.968.37433144TT-1.998-35.99838386.338771895450.2430897131330.282167765685051621151210WETL
2023-01-31 23:00:05FORECAST2023130-15430.5622.40626.483130.815713061611.862205733.062205734.867.92220573TT-1.44-33.4438386.7502112646150.5930046633080.307869322736451621151210WETL
2023-01-31 19:00:03FORECAST2023130-15430.61422.22626.42131.229339940651.862205733.062205734.897.95220573TT-1.386-36.38638386.9719313327450.7820711243540.310410214664131621151210WETL
2023-01-31 15:00:06FORECAST2023130-15428.27422.9125.592131.201270741171.448819682.558819685.417.96881968TT-3.726-39.72638386.9568925182850.7692360204540.20977584080306161115127.5WETL
2023-01-31 11:00:06FORECAST2023130-15428.0422.94625.493131.032892271171.011811572.611811575.317.92181157TT-3.96-43.9638386.8666567982450.692256963550.20088711384376161115127.5WETL
2023-01-31 07:00:17FORECAST2023130-15427.9522.92825.439126.480559714791.011811572.611811575.377.98181157TT-4.05-43.0538384.4123319015348.6206869001720.19752933188692161115127.5WETL
2023-01-31 03:00:15FORECAST2023130-15427.55421.57824.566130.280672472720.992126522.702126524.997.69212652TT-4.446-41.44638386.4630629745350.3486677301880.18316166536445161115127.5WETL
2023-01-30 23:00:06FORECAST2023130-15427.69821.77624.737127.874869720990.342519871.602519875.046.64251987TT-4.302-44.30238385.1670713391649.2531890683090.18830928136271161115127.5WETL
2023-01-30 19:00:04FORECAST2023130-15427.69821.77624.737127.843598449230.342519871.582519875.046.62251987TT-4.302-44.30238385.1501734978549.2389841233090.18830928136271161115127.5WETL
2023-01-30 15:00:06FORECAST2023130-15427.2323.05425.142125.50676754150.578740471.358740474.896.24874047TT-4.77-43.7738383.8836310627248.1799936467740.17190352133305161114126WETL
2023-01-30 11:00:08FORECAST2023130-15428.54424.94426.744136.615356368121.661418223.061418224.857.91141822TT-3.456-45.45638389.8378804413353.2578409622860.22031349470185161115127.5WETL
2023-01-30 07:00:16FORECAST2023130-15428.52624.99826.762135.956046676641.661418223.061418224.837.89141822TT-3.474-43.47438389.489158004952.9534061457590.21960169561936161115127.5WETL
2023-01-30 03:00:20FORECAST2023130-15429.08424.3526.717129.764480384520.814961072.154961074.846.99496107TT-2.916-39.91638386.18566029150.1131815396160.2422724597889161115127.5WETL
2023-01-29 23:00:05FORECAST2023130-15427.1422.29824.719142.966024510631.779528522.989528525.278.25952852TT-4.86-43.8638393.1671436092956.209543490020.16885619189848161115127.5WETL
2023-01-29 19:00:04FORECAST2023130-15427.30222.47824.89142.828717854311.779528522.989528525.278.25952852TT-4.698-43.69838393.095728749556.1453589312960.1743664445828161115127.5WETL
2023-01-29 15:00:10FORECAST2023130-15428.81421.63225.223135.587143989161.236221142.266221145.287.54622114TT-3.186-39.18638389.2937828526152.783232189720.23114772692306161115127.5WETL
2023-01-29 11:00:08FORECAST2023130-15430.36222.35226.357118.9290115091600.455.035.48TF-1.638-35.63838380.2779151344845.2260765457090.29863192288234162112124WETL
2023-01-29 07:00:16FORECAST2023130-15430.3822.3726.375118.7074377131900.455.035.48TF-1.62-34.6238380.1554035104745.1272738835520.29946646600828162112124WETL
2023-01-29 03:00:21FORECAST2023130-15429.71424.00826.861121.08919094850.240157610.760157614.985.74015761TF-2.286-36.28638381.4687062906846.191737016910.26931882762874162113126WETL
2023-01-28 23:00:09FORECAST2023130-15425.89825.89825.898109.0397536270800.364.084.44TF-6.102-44.10238374.7422952282840.8618075453370.13036174317239161112123WETL
2023-01-28 19:00:07FORECAST2023130-15426.02426.02426.024109.0436595629800.364.084.44TF-5.976-44.97638374.7445091821240.8635126823520.13396552942913161112123WETL
2023-01-28 15:00:11FORECAST2023130-15424.24224.24224.242113.3001584380500.255.15.35TF-7.758-51.75838377.1441610639942.7304932025340.089127519343769161112123WETL
2023-01-28 11:00:13FORECAST2023130-15421.95621.95621.956112.9579993869800.654.014.66TF-10.044-59.04438376.9522223053742.5797688960890.049243322295613161113124.5WETL
2023-01-28 07:00:19FORECAST2023130-15421.95621.95621.956112.9250443094200.653.984.63TF-10.044-59.04438376.9337268993742.5652578118240.049243322295613161113124.5WETL
2023-01-28 03:00:15FORECAST2023130-15422.8222.8222.82118.4854726525101.244.25.44TF-9.18-60.1838380.0326063986145.0283429925040.062208896201286161114126WETL