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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, February 5, 2023

[ Saturday, February 4, 2023 | Index | Today | Monday, February 6, 2023 ]

DAY 128 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/06/2023 07:00:09 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.16°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.08°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.62°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.334
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -7

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.88 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.83 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.09 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.92 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 113 in
SWE DAY: 36
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 375.49 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 42.57 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -156

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-02-06 07:00:09OBSERVATION2023128-15630.1600425.0800827.62006113.359923913040.881.834.095.92TT-1.83996-6.8399636375.49378986087 42.5659474484490.3342449470943816 21151210WETL
2023-02-06 03:00:09OBSERVATION2023128-15630.1600425.0800827.62006113.359923913040.881.834.095.92TT-1.83996-6.8399636375.49378986087 42.5659474484490.3342449470943816 21151210WETL
2023-02-05 11:00:02FORECAST2023128-15628.0422.33425.187109.555678592910.688976751.638976754.095.72897675TF-3.96-8.9636373.3343104008740.9008937179830.257009316858551621151210WETL
2023-02-05 07:00:15FORECAST2023128-15628.54423.5426.042109.508117702740.681102731.631102734.095.72110273TF-3.456-8.45636373.3071801801640.8801666264490.274503048305261621151210WETL
2023-02-05 03:00:13FORECAST2023128-15628.9423.50426.222109.332858836930.641732631.591732634.095.68173263TF-3.06-8.0636373.2071787411240.8038077902340.288647822780411621151210WETL
2023-02-04 23:00:03FORECAST2023128-15628.65223.03625.844106.507523963570.649606651.479606654.095.56960665TF-3.348-9.34836371.5889045770639.5770141588380.27832663215927162114128WETL
2023-02-04 19:00:02FORECAST2023128-15628.47222.96425.718106.710791280330.692913761.522913764.095.61291376TF-3.528-9.52836371.7057186077439.6650113560550.27196845563291621151210WETL
2023-02-04 15:00:02FORECAST2023128-15628.38223.7226.051106.233078084170.574803461.404803464.095.49480346TF-3.618-9.61836371.4310898027939.4582679659090.26881665022808162114128WETL
2023-02-04 11:00:04FORECAST2023128-15629.35425.41227.383107.690865231530.539370371.369370374.095.45937037TF-2.646-8.64636372.268103612840.0898741761620.30379223963053162114128WETL
2023-02-04 07:00:13FORECAST2023128-15629.82224.13426.978108.044345194480.523622331.453622334.095.54362233TF-2.178-8.17836372.4705938374940.2433414153720.32132536524631162114128WETL
2023-02-04 03:00:16FORECAST2023128-15629.8423.21626.528108.252673386820.47244121.51244124.095.6024412TF-2.16-9.1636372.5898490662840.3338472382180.322008066246731621151210WETL
2023-02-03 23:00:04FORECAST2023128-15629.28223.4526.366108.448410764310.496063261.826063264.095.91606326TT-2.718-17.71836372.701839334640.4189221647720.301133095919161621151210WETL
2023-02-03 19:00:05FORECAST2023128-15629.13823.23426.186108.287655135120.51181131.78181134.095.8718113TT-2.862-17.86236372.609867804140.3490488647140.29584650570171621151210WETL
2023-02-03 15:00:04FORECAST2023128-15629.42624.76427.095108.709343559960.574803461.904803464.095.99480346TT-2.574-17.57436372.8510443124140.5323922728470.306461799252891621151210WETL
2023-02-03 11:00:06FORECAST2023128-15628.4923.95426.222111.362484365660.570866451.910866454.096.00086645TT-3.51-18.5136374.3625454875941.689943118950.272601012439721621151210WETL
2023-02-03 07:00:16FORECAST2023128-15629.08424.51226.798110.687255943190.55118141.79118144.095.8811814TT-2.916-17.91636373.9788318711941.3946906806610.293875072570431621151210WETL
2023-02-03 03:00:16FORECAST2023128-15627.82424.1725.997110.68032462030.456693161.786693164.095.87669316TT-4.176-20.17636373.974889578941.3916621784340.249693321946851621151210WETL
2023-02-02 23:00:05FORECAST2023128-15628.25624.15226.204112.023403243620.618110571.668110574.095.75811057TF-3.744-25.74436374.7374905969941.9793690196490.264435120692571621151210WETL
2023-02-02 19:00:07FORECAST2023128-15628.63424.56626.6111.804423477720.645669641.635669644.095.72566964TF-3.366-25.36636374.6133311627841.8834275177220.277687571415471621151210WETL
2023-02-02 15:00:07FORECAST2023128-15628.65223.61226.132111.334072946980.547244391.537244394.095.62724439TF-3.348-25.34836374.3464133243341.6775108884910.278326632159271621151210WETL
2023-02-02 11:00:06FORECAST2023128-15628.34624.33226.339111.251634057140.464567181.564567184.095.65456718TF-3.654-24.65436374.2995974688741.6414418453410.267561078037991621151210WETL
2023-02-02 07:00:15FORECAST2023128-15629.58824.72827.158111.315395021070.444882131.494882134.095.58488213TF-2.412-21.41236374.3358072587441.6693382555380.31250579613845162114128WETL
2023-02-02 03:00:14FORECAST2023128-15628.1326.07827.104111.027484518780.47244121.42244124.095.5124412TF-3.87-23.8736374.172256607641.5434044278560.26009018433759162114128WETL
2023-02-01 23:00:05FORECAST2023128-15629.06624.96227.014112.906378506510.456693161.406693164.095.49669316TF-2.934-22.93436375.2374290846542.366699198040.29321927974358162114128WETL
2023-02-01 19:00:05FORECAST2023128-15629.15624.83626.996112.402017428290.43307111.28307114.095.3730711TF-2.844-23.84436374.9519983650742.1453610550040.29650499600654162114128WETL
2023-02-01 15:00:06FORECAST2023128-15629.2125.01627.113112.506554181340.374015951.324015954.095.41401595TF-2.79-23.7936375.0111884074342.1912165871690.29848448090444162114128WETL
2023-02-01 11:00:07FORECAST2023128-15628.5824.96226.771113.860239287170.606299541.596299544.095.68629954TF-3.42-25.4236375.7762443965342.7859731054220.275774695447021621151210WETL
2023-02-01 07:00:16FORECAST2023128-15628.74224.83626.789114.099418035360.618110571.668110574.095.75811057TF-3.258-27.25836375.9111467106642.891243072690.281532633400471621151210WETL
2023-02-01 03:00:14FORECAST2023128-15629.15624.94427.05115.542250397250.881890241.931890244.096.02189024TT-2.844-27.84436376.7232012572143.5274464501130.296504996006541621151210WETL
2023-01-31 23:00:05FORECAST2023128-15628.65224.22426.438115.394042019330.582677481.542677484.085.62267748TF-3.348-27.34836376.6399237366943.4620031858280.278326632159271621151210WETL
2023-01-31 19:00:03FORECAST2023128-15628.43623.926.168115.634809669850.582677481.572677484.085.65267748TF-3.564-28.56436376.7751939327843.5683278387390.270705533442071621151210WETL
2023-01-31 15:00:06FORECAST2023128-15628.88622.47825.682117.881164343790.535433362.045433364.086.12543336TT-3.114-29.11436378.0332822005644.5630034665060.286698945622281621151210WETL
2023-01-31 11:00:06FORECAST2023128-15627.87821.4724.674120.25265094940.988189512.398189514.086.47818951TT-4.122-32.12236379.3536853136945.6182863063960.251511907054631621151210WETL
2023-01-31 07:00:16FORECAST2023128-15627.15821.75824.458120.717884653860.988189512.448189514.096.53818951TT-4.842-30.84236379.6117875681645.8259319848990.22784883124486161115127.5WETL
2023-01-31 03:00:14FORECAST2023128-15627.33822.94625.142118.710381344530.968504462.078504464.066.13850446TT-4.662-28.66236378.4958806041444.9313903238520.23364461627448161115127.5WETL
2023-01-30 23:00:06FORECAST2023128-15628.38222.22625.304120.738369392630.649606651.799606654.075.86960665TT-3.618-32.61836379.6231450782945.8350795204540.268816650228081621151210WETL
2023-01-30 19:00:04FORECAST2023128-15628.34622.20825.277120.724581028550.645669641.785669644.085.86566964TT-3.654-32.65436379.6155003553345.8289222323390.267561078037991621151210WETL
2023-01-30 15:00:06FORECAST2023128-15628.00423.93625.97118.55975771480.444882131.424882134.095.51488213TF-3.996-33.99636378.4119240350544.8644260299860.25578229938975162114128WETL
2023-01-30 11:00:08FORECAST2023128-15627.57223.86425.718119.602949882410.657480671.627480674.065.68748067TF-4.428-36.42836378.992733541445.3286489155510.24129961466306161115127.5WETL
2023-01-30 07:00:15FORECAST2023128-15628.20224.99826.6119.06117053490.657480671.607480674.065.66748067TF-3.798-33.79836378.6912836059845.087427497490.262568497206651621151210WETL
2023-01-30 03:00:19FORECAST2023128-15627.7724.40426.087119.327285487080.688976751.648976754.065.70897675TF-4.23-31.2336378.8394037221745.205877681710.24788173376768161115127.5WETL
2023-01-29 23:00:04FORECAST2023128-15629.2125.84427.527121.579501279980.692913762.112913764.036.14291376TT-2.79-32.7936380.0889903100346.2110298839060.298484480904441621151210WETL
2023-01-29 19:00:04FORECAST2023128-15629.33625.86227.599121.548257444420.692913762.112913764.036.14291376TT-2.664-32.66436380.0717042856646.1970533598520.303126472776921621151210WETL
2023-01-29 15:00:10FORECAST2023128-15629.37225.57427.473121.450804522180.688976752.118976754.036.14897675TT-2.628-29.62836380.0177784817246.1534649293370.304458657486671621151210WETL
2023-01-29 11:00:07FORECAST2023128-15629.67823.37826.528118.929011509160.452756151.562756154.15.66275615TF-2.322-31.32236378.6176864115845.0286271848160.315885616160551621151210WETL
2023-01-29 07:00:16FORECAST2023128-15629.6623.5426.6118.707437713190.452756151.562756154.15.66275615TF-2.34-30.3436378.4942401521144.9300814376590.315208408605551621151210WETL
2023-01-29 03:00:20FORECAST2023128-15629.7524.65627.203118.785979747660.519685321.629685324.055.67968532TF-2.25-31.2536378.5380065262144.9650079769430.318600607538041621151210WETL
2023-01-28 23:00:09FORECAST2023128-15629.73224.60227.167109.039753627080.358267910.838267913.784.61826791TF-2.268-34.26836373.0398355196340.6761717581450.31792093931796162113126WETL
2023-01-28 19:00:07FORECAST2023128-15629.6624.74627.203109.043659562980.358267910.828267913.794.61826791TF-2.34-35.3436373.0420663636140.6778720872250.31520840860555162113126WETL
2023-01-28 15:00:10FORECAST2023128-15629.73224.22426.978113.300158438050.251968640.901968644.635.53196864TF-2.268-40.26836375.4600250776342.5396803284480.31792093931796162113126WETL
2023-01-28 11:00:12FORECAST2023128-15629.13824.27826.708110.817528083160.417323060.957323063.654.60732306TF-2.862-42.86236374.0529131660841.4516192093710.2958465057017162113126WETL
2023-01-28 07:00:19FORECAST2023128-15629.15624.29626.726110.783506360180.417323060.957323063.624.57732306TF-2.844-42.84436374.0335685447641.43675021980.29650499600654162113126WETL
2023-01-28 03:00:14FORECAST2023128-15628.56226.31227.437114.283369362570.751968911.541968913.595.13196891TF-3.438-46.43836376.014843749542.9722432740340.275138510534751621151210WETL
2023-01-27 23:00:08FORECAST2023128-15629.1225.5227.32110.777647348550.456693161.006693163.364.36669316TF-2.88-50.8836374.0302369644741.4341896881460.29518868723292162114128WETL
2023-01-27 19:00:06FORECAST2023128-15629.08425.57427.329110.954237677680.456693161.006693163.44.40669316TF-2.916-50.91636374.1306288651741.5113787176040.29387507257043162114128WETL
2023-01-27 15:00:08FORECAST2023128-15629.24625.77227.509108.080155593430.358267910.988267912.973.95826791TF-2.754-51.75436372.4910976060840.2588957864310.29980746534072162113126DRYL
2023-01-27 11:00:08FORECAST2023128-15628.7624.69226.726112.007671949420.559055420.899055423.254.14905542TF-3.24-55.2436374.7285734057141.9724751201010.28217596243395162113126WETL
2023-01-27 07:00:20FORECAST2023128-15628.83224.8926.861111.766588403590.566929440.906929443.324.22692944TF-3.168-51.16836374.591872039841.8668555816010.28475632284646162113126WETL
2023-01-27 03:00:21FORECAST2023128-15629.06623.68426.375111.293986957250.23622060.92622063.394.3162206TF-2.934-50.93436374.3236502938941.6599714535970.29321927974358162113126WETL
2023-01-26 23:00:09FORECAST2023128-15627.87827.87827.878114.9118487024600.494.074.56TF-4.122-62.12236376.3687647864143.2492305554680.25151190705463162112124WETL
2023-01-26 19:00:07FORECAST2023128-15627.96827.96827.968115.2193242338500.494.164.65TF-4.032-62.03236376.5417104464343.3848814234950.25455834264926162112124WETL
2023-01-26 11:00:06FORECAST2023128-15629.73229.73229.732106.976269848270.023622060.153622063.213.36362206FF-2.268-53.26836371.8581935179739.780002455070.31792093931796162112124DRYL
2023-01-26 07:00:22FORECAST2023128-15629.73229.73229.732107.339773819280.023622060.153622063.193.34362206FF-2.268-51.26836372.0668016186639.937566331410.31792093931796162112124DRYL
2023-01-26 03:00:15FORECAST2023128-15629.01229.01229.012118.312556238430.03937011.01937013.574.5893701TF-2.988-64.98836378.274066007544.754571708050.29125597934194162114128WETL