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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, February 27, 2023

[ Sunday, February 26, 2023 | Index | Today | Tuesday, February 28, 2023 ]

DAY 150 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/28/2023 07:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 22.95°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 14.49°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 18.72°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.127
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -9
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -77

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.17 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.05 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.01 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.06 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 146 in
SWE DAY: 58
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 409.51 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 59.70 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -134

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-02-28 07:00:08OBSERVATION2023150-13422.9499614.4899618.71996145.793956956520.169999999999961.055.016.06TF-9.05004-77.0500458409.50834985343 59.7038427318680.1273656502517216 1114126WETL
2023-02-28 03:00:06OBSERVATION2023150-13422.9499614.4899618.71996145.793956956520.169999999999961.055.016.06TF-9.05004-77.0500458409.50834985343 59.7038427318680.1273656502517216 1114126WETL
2023-02-27 11:00:01FORECAST2023150-13420.94811.5716.259140.316375481320.259842661.139842665.016.14984266TF-11.052-79.05258406.8689274561857.0903731966250.087842681783695161114126WETL
2023-02-27 07:00:10FORECAST2023150-13420.44412.30816.376140.397975706250.255905651.135905655.016.14590565TF-11.556-79.55658406.9085173266157.129132130290.079509964182343161114126WETL
2023-02-27 03:00:09FORECAST2023150-13421.43412.75817.096140.402118088480.255905651.135905655.016.14590565TF-10.566-78.56658406.9105268617457.1310998438860.096476422772303161114126WETL
2023-02-26 23:00:02FORECAST2023150-13422.29812.0217.159134.799362029850.326771831.416771835.016.42677183TT-9.702-80.70258404.1731238016254.482279238070.11333073613713161114126WETL
2023-02-26 19:00:01FORECAST2023150-13422.26210.32816.295134.898026909550.346456881.436456885.016.44645688TT-9.738-80.73858404.2216673775354.5287053633180.1125891337783161114126WETL
2023-02-26 15:00:02FORECAST2023150-13422.04611.44416.745135.008246244440.362204921.452204925.016.46220492TT-9.954-80.95458404.2758814147754.5805777487330.10821202965858161114126WETL
2023-02-26 11:00:03FORECAST2023150-13421.41613.40617.411140.436495789980.31496081.40496085.016.4149608TT-10.584-81.58458406.9272032125557.1474304607870.096145957128921161114126WETL
2023-02-26 07:00:14FORECAST2023150-13422.44213.4617.951140.22586379780.381889971.461889975.016.47188997TT-9.558-80.55858406.8250044257257.0473876601380.11633186206398161114126WETL
2023-02-26 03:00:14FORECAST2023150-13423.21614.28818.752139.66066130440.362204921.422204925.016.43220492TT-8.784-78.78458406.550497427456.7791113243420.13342538075357161114126WETL
2023-02-25 23:00:04FORECAST2023150-13422.62212.54217.582142.887891387140.3937011.5437015.016.553701TT-9.378-84.37858408.112609567858.3143502296460.12016174198244161115127.5WETL
2023-02-25 19:00:04FORECAST2023150-13421.43412.0216.727143.37338782210.381889971.541889975.016.55188997TT-10.566-86.56658408.3465037212958.5460216438310.096476422772303161115127.5WETL
2023-02-25 15:00:05FORECAST2023150-13421.30811.42616.367142.678309158360.346456881.486456885.016.49645688TT-10.692-86.69258408.0115514683458.2143982805810.09418056714671161114126WETL
2023-02-25 11:00:06FORECAST2023150-13421.95612.14617.051142.949360196290.385826981.505826985.016.51582698TT-10.044-85.04458408.1422389071258.3436719208540.10642474166088161115127.5WETL
2023-02-25 07:00:19FORECAST2023150-13422.0113.3717.69142.551340265830.342519871.412519875.016.42251987TT-9.99-83.9958407.9503023803558.1538623661680.10749454730209161114126WETL
2023-02-25 03:00:13FORECAST2023150-13423.10814.9919.049142.882562891920.421260071.561260075.016.57126007TT-8.892-80.89258408.1100408961758.3118085851710.13094198267843161115127.5WETL
2023-02-24 23:00:05FORECAST2023150-13423.0914.82818.959145.600280253280.385826981.405826985.016.41582698TT-8.91-86.9158409.415649886759.6110333635820.13053119941868161114126WETL
2023-02-24 19:00:08FORECAST2023150-13422.40612.21817.312145.790582769780.377952961.407952965.016.41795296TT-9.594-90.59458409.5067352482559.702225579990.11557636325479161114126WETL
2023-02-24 15:00:09FORECAST2023150-13422.9114.5418.725146.306946461290.452756151.512756155.016.52275615TT-9.09-88.0958409.7536630638459.9498072441990.12647221497671161115127.5WETL
2023-02-24 11:00:08FORECAST2023150-13420.91212.81216.862144.476339511280.240157611.140157615.016.15015761TF-11.088-92.08858408.8767941770659.0730225338080.087226764820264161114126WETL
2023-02-24 07:00:18FORECAST2023150-13420.91212.81216.862144.417336594610.240157611.140157615.016.15015761TF-11.088-92.08858408.8484636362359.0448061891430.087226764820264161114126WETL
2023-02-24 03:00:28FORECAST2023150-13420.91212.81216.862144.417336594610.240157611.140157615.016.15015761TF-11.088-92.08858408.8484636362359.0448061891430.087226764820264161114126WETL
2023-02-23 23:00:11FORECAST2023150-13420.91212.81216.862145.978297390580.240157611.140157614.986.12015761TF-11.088-90.08858409.5965388300459.7922053554820.087226764820264161114126WETL
2023-02-23 19:00:09FORECAST2023150-13420.91212.81216.862145.978297390580.240157611.140157614.986.12015761TF-11.088-90.08858409.5965388300459.7922053554820.087226764820264161114126WETL
2023-02-23 15:00:06FORECAST2023150-13420.91212.81216.862146.104909766660.244094621.144094624.986.12409462TF-11.088-90.08858409.6570866271259.8529116769270.087226764820264161114126WETL
2023-02-23 11:00:06FORECAST2023150-13422.1913.83818.014146.93446733540.251968641.271968644.986.25196864TT-9.81-90.8158410.0533112100560.2509648617670.11111630868426161114126WETL
2023-02-23 07:00:22FORECAST2023150-13422.1913.83818.014147.401051918740.251968641.271968644.986.25196864TT-9.81-90.8158410.2758011221560.4750846622080.11111630868426161114126WETL
2023-02-23 03:00:24FORECAST2023150-13422.1913.83818.014147.401051918740.251968641.271968644.986.25196864TT-9.81-90.8158410.2758011221560.4750846622080.11111630868426161114126WETL
2023-02-22 23:00:09FORECAST2023150-13423.23414.1818.707145.533314267480.389763991.299763994.856.14976399TT-8.766-88.76658409.3835871775559.5789502486610.13384240032853161114126WETL
2023-02-22 19:00:09FORECAST2023150-13421.90214.16218.032145.583297065980.381889971.291889974.856.14188997TT-10.098-93.09858409.4075190061859.6028964605220.10536262031321161114126WETL
2023-02-22 15:00:02FORECAST2023150-13421.36212.68617.024146.283969190160.397638011.427638014.856.27763801TT-10.638-90.63858409.7426820963459.9387858836740.09515953788841161114126WETL
2023-02-22 11:00:07FORECAST2023150-13421.39813.62217.51145.81704359920.381889971.361889974.856.21188997TT-10.602-89.60258409.5193968295459.7149077422130.095816321669716161114126WETL
2023-02-22 07:00:20FORECAST2023150-13422.11812.54217.33142.736378568440.03937010.92937014.855.7793701TF-9.882-94.88258408.0395572467958.2420887140770.1096572882671161113124.5WETL
2023-02-22 03:00:14FORECAST2023150-13422.11812.54217.33142.736378568440.03937010.92937014.855.7793701TF-9.882-94.88258408.0395572467958.2420887140770.1096572882671161113124.5WETL
2023-02-21 23:00:07FORECAST2023150-13422.11812.54217.33136.788269625480.03937010.92937015.035.9593701TF-9.882-96.88258405.1493302463755.4196758243240.1096572882671161113124.5WETL
2023-02-21 19:00:09FORECAST2023150-13422.11812.54217.33136.788269625480.03937010.92937015.035.9593701TF-9.882-96.88258405.1493302463755.4196758243240.1096572882671161113124.5WETL
2023-02-21 15:00:07FORECAST2023150-13423.68413.92818.806135.384876883070.043307110.793307115.035.82330711TF-8.316-86.31658404.4610217737554.7579056368420.14455871699197161113124.5WETL
2023-02-21 11:00:09FORECAST2023150-13425.715.36820.534138.723612045840.074803190.654803195.035.68480319TF-6.3-80.358406.0945230790656.3348990735610.19946702827962161113124.5WETL
2023-02-21 07:00:22FORECAST2023150-13423.10815.81819.463142.165317507750.307086781.057086785.196.24708678TT-8.892-86.89258407.7639657822857.9698936636560.13094198267843161114126WETL
2023-02-21 03:00:21FORECAST2023150-13423.10815.81819.463142.165317507750.307086781.057086785.196.24708678TT-8.892-86.89258407.7639657822857.9698936636560.13094198267843161114126WETL
2023-02-20 23:00:03FORECAST2023150-13423.10815.81819.463144.30539877620.307086781.057086785.826.87708678TT-8.892-87.89258408.794704472158.9912828464460.13094198267843161114126WETL
2023-02-20 19:00:09FORECAST2023150-13423.10815.81819.463144.30539877620.307086781.057086785.826.87708678TT-8.892-87.89258408.794704472158.9912828464460.13094198267843161114126WETL
2023-02-20 15:00:09FORECAST2023150-13423.7215.47619.598145.438513822780.409449041.259449045.746.99944904TT-8.28-91.2858409.3381882548959.5335377507010.14544025210858161114126WETL
2023-02-20 11:00:09FORECAST2023150-13426.22215.7120.966153.111111449770.460630171.710630175.87.51063017TT-5.778-80.77858412.9773797000463.2314256094880.21550176892046161115127.5WETL
2023-02-20 07:00:23FORECAST2023150-13426.25815.65620.957153.661349797860.464567181.724567185.957.67456718TT-5.742-79.74258413.2356480328763.4983474613220.21663445021612161115127.5WETL
2023-02-20 03:00:23FORECAST2023150-13425.10618.06821.587155.384878825720.602362531.872362535.947.81236253TT-6.894-82.89458414.0422979855564.3359123012090.18212001466452161115127.5WETL
2023-02-19 23:00:03FORECAST2023150-13425.10618.06821.587155.69572357160.602362531.872362535.977.84236253TT-6.894-85.89458414.1874047434864.4872076757780.18212001466452161115127.5WETL
2023-02-19 19:00:04FORECAST2023150-13425.10618.06821.587155.794493827390.602362531.872362536.017.88236253TT-6.894-85.89458414.2334881262964.5352966089910.18212001466452161115127.5WETL
2023-02-19 15:00:07FORECAST2023150-13426.31218.48222.397157.283609934870.582677482.392677485.798.18267748TT-5.688-82.68858414.9268679289465.2611956468330.21833990057199161115127.5WETL
2023-02-19 11:00:08FORECAST2023150-13424.81818.57221.695159.118914280630.271653692.481653695.798.27165369TT-7.182-81.18258415.777843818766.1581190903750.17405890944112161115127.5WETL
2023-02-19 07:00:17FORECAST2023150-13424.54817.83421.191159.193871943040.271653692.481653695.888.36165369TT-7.452-83.45258415.812515203866.1948042976690.16671051086421161115127.5WETL
2023-02-19 03:00:16FORECAST2023150-13423.95415.00819.481157.212888073530.460630172.090630175.918.00063017TT-8.046-84.04658414.8939968674565.22668349190.1512579994729161115127.5WETL
2023-02-18 23:00:03FORECAST2023150-13424.8917.16821.029164.680007709790.696850772.636850775.858.48685077TT-7.11-88.1158418.3322682463168.8909611600590.17605265852899161115127.5WETL
2023-02-18 19:00:10FORECAST2023150-13423.91816.28620.102166.017811837690.696850772.636850775.988.61685077TT-8.082-92.08258418.941407915169.5517358302650.15035305210342161115127.5WETL
2023-02-18 15:00:10FORECAST2023150-13426.38416.7921.587166.871763908630.771653962.721653965.948.66165396TT-5.616-96.61658419.3291552768769.9741957993670.22062579921331161115127.5WETL
2023-02-18 11:00:14FORECAST2023150-13428.72415.96222.343167.93760649170.3937012.2837016.769.043701TT-3.276-90.27658419.8119356432270.5022116485720.301925899104631621151210WETL
2023-02-18 07:00:17FORECAST2023150-13427.17616.7921.983172.768770609270.3937013.0437016.429.463701TT-4.824-96.82458421.9839285278572.9056445486260.24665645559556161115127.5WETL
2023-02-18 03:00:19FORECAST2023150-13427.17616.7921.983172.768770609270.3937013.0437016.429.463701TT-4.824-96.82458421.9839285278572.9056445486260.24665645559556161115127.5WETL
2023-02-17 23:00:07FORECAST2023150-13417.67217.67217.672173.880262131620.011811032.661811036.278.93181103TT-14.328-110.32858422.479872351173.460910949740.043927174447936161115127.5WETL
2023-02-17 19:00:11FORECAST2023150-13418.12218.12218.122172.325451400870.011811032.581811036.178.75181103TT-13.878-106.87858421.7857300471772.6844163248230.048623994672219161115127.5WETL
2023-02-17 15:00:06FORECAST2023150-13423.4523.4523.45160.806677710610.019685051.819685055.727.53968505TT-8.55-99.5558416.5569156686566.9851336860530.13891633388064161115127.5WETL
2023-02-17 11:00:03FORECAST2023150-13417.72617.72617.726158.0723101815501.545.296.83TT-14.274-102.27458415.2930508437965.6463319492230.044470765315469161115127.5WETL
2023-02-17 03:00:13FORECAST2023150-13427.44627.44627.446147.443824364780.019685050.369685057.177.53968505TT-4.554-86.55458410.2961838855760.4956384743640.25589188662262162112124WETL