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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, February 21, 2023

[ Monday, February 20, 2023 | Index | Today | Wednesday, February 22, 2023 ]

DAY 144 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/22/2023 07:00:16 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 24.11°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 18.03°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 21.07°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.109
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -8
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -18

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.75 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.02 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.23 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.25 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 137 in
SWE DAY: 52
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 400.56 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 54.68 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -140

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-02-22 07:00:16OBSERVATION2023144-14024.1100618.0300221.07004136.508913333330.752.026.238.25TT-7.88994-17.8899452400.5641593471 54.6805781127530.1086949794678516 1115127.5WETL
2023-02-22 03:00:11OBSERVATION2023144-14024.1100618.0300221.07004136.508913333330.752.026.238.25TT-7.88994-17.8899452400.5641593471 54.6805781127530.1086949794678516 1115127.5WETL
2023-02-21 11:00:04FORECAST2023144-14021.95616.80819.382134.426579447030.929134362.199134366.238.42913436TT-10.044-20.04452399.517659717253.7057924244650.06760699446337161115127.5WETL
2023-02-21 07:00:18FORECAST2023144-14022.17215.3518.761135.103395793981.086614762.356614766.238.58661476TT-9.828-19.82852399.8584085039254.0222288256550.071088593926975161115127.5WETL
2023-02-21 03:00:17FORECAST2023144-14022.17215.3518.761135.103395793981.086614762.356614766.238.58661476TT-9.828-19.82852399.8584085039254.0222288256550.071088593926975161115127.5WETL
2023-02-20 23:00:02FORECAST2023144-14022.17215.3518.761136.49465000211.086614762.986614766.239.21661476TT-9.828-20.82852400.5570099647954.6738888810340.071088593926975161115127.5WETL
2023-02-20 19:00:03FORECAST2023144-14022.17215.3518.761136.49465000211.086614762.986614766.239.21661476TT-9.828-20.82852400.5570099647954.6738888810340.071088593926975161115127.5WETL
2023-02-20 15:00:02FORECAST2023144-14021.5615.58418.572136.088960675951.007874562.907874566.239.13787456TT-10.44-21.4452400.3535528971354.4836989166940.061566909100661161115127.5WETL
2023-02-20 11:00:08FORECAST2023144-14022.62216.37619.499141.63966882371.074803732.974803736.239.20480373TT-9.378-20.37852403.119178675757.0976669641090.07878053790827161115127.5WETL
2023-02-20 07:00:19FORECAST2023144-14023.84616.30420.075142.173514374171.066929713.116929716.239.34692971TT-8.154-19.15452403.3831161918257.3503952681950.10286431316313161115127.5WETL
2023-02-20 03:00:20FORECAST2023144-14025.12417.38421.254142.244327237241.137795893.107795896.239.33779589TT-6.876-17.87652403.4180997611257.3839361958450.13327470973534161115127.5WETL
2023-02-19 23:00:02FORECAST2023144-14025.12417.38421.254140.880369233591.137795893.137795896.239.36779589TT-6.876-20.87652402.74315781756.7386047795620.13327470973534161115127.5WETL
2023-02-19 19:00:03FORECAST2023144-14025.05217.2421.146140.979139489391.122047853.182047856.239.41204785TT-6.948-20.94852402.7921119317356.7852853332490.13141277113089161115127.5WETL
2023-02-19 15:00:05FORECAST2023144-14025.12416.66420.894140.018728079661.035433632.955433636.239.18543363TT-6.876-20.87652402.3155759681756.3317152337010.13327470973534161115127.5WETL
2023-02-19 11:00:07FORECAST2023144-14024.38616.6120.498141.407033153211.035433632.955433636.239.18543363TT-7.614-21.61452403.0040497284156.9876070208250.115037190829161115127.5WETL
2023-02-19 07:00:15FORECAST2023144-14024.4416.32220.381141.246797407981.047244663.047244666.239.27724466TT-7.56-20.5652402.9247111676656.9118250489650.11630841362579161115127.5WETL
2023-02-19 03:00:15FORECAST2023144-14024.72816.80820.768141.030548543341.007874563.077874566.239.30787456TT-7.272-20.27252402.8175872607656.8095852942910.12325606613111161115127.5WETL
2023-02-18 23:00:02FORECAST2023144-14025.41217.13221.272140.857405126321.153543933.153543936.049.19354393TT-6.588-22.58852402.7317742142656.7277526777390.14090294605925161115127.5WETL
2023-02-18 19:00:08FORECAST2023144-14025.55616.91621.236141.44796136751.165354963.265354966.049.30535496TT-6.444-23.44452403.0243096030857.00696697490.14482573088689161115127.5WETL
2023-02-18 15:00:08FORECAST2023144-14025.1617.09621.128141.275141117211.094488783.264488786.049.30448878TT-6.84-24.8452402.9387475225456.9252284178370.13421243384332161115127.5WETL
2023-02-18 11:00:08FORECAST2023144-14026.617.34821.974143.089715342891.251969183.501969186.049.54196918TT-5.4-22.452403.8352599402457.7846723902710.17544329087264161115127.5WETL
2023-02-18 07:00:15FORECAST2023144-14025.8816.32221.101142.582884661691.000000543.270000546.069.33000054TT-6.12-23.1252403.5852698328257.544351979730.15391788442647161115127.5WETL
2023-02-18 03:00:17FORECAST2023144-14025.8816.32221.101142.582884661691.000000543.270000546.069.33000054TT-6.12-23.1252403.5852698328257.544351979730.15391788442647161115127.5WETL
2023-02-17 23:00:06FORECAST2023144-14025.8816.32221.101143.322139628781.000000543.270000545.919.18000054TT-6.12-27.1252403.9497937398757.8949487414030.15391788442647161115127.5WETL
2023-02-17 19:00:10FORECAST2023144-14026.54617.11421.83142.72029144121.031496623.111496625.939.04149662TT-5.454-27.45452403.6530764090957.6094847062410.1737657689786161115127.5WETL
2023-02-17 15:00:05FORECAST2023144-14026.65417.20421.929142.297673516941.1811033.0411035.928.961103TT-5.346-26.34652403.4444501858957.4092066547720.17713101770325161115127.5WETL
2023-02-17 11:00:02FORECAST2023144-14026.1516.39421.272142.011765304591.011811572.701811575.98.60181157TT-5.85-26.8552403.3031839437357.273797104810.16177646574097161115127.5WETL
2023-02-17 07:00:16FORECAST2023144-14025.14220.10222.622148.016393322922.055119223.015119225.668.67511922TT-6.858-29.85852406.2486083962460.1314538072660.13374300846466161115127.5WETL
2023-02-17 03:00:12FORECAST2023144-14022.29815.15218.725143.847558017860.929134362.949134367.5810.52913436TT-9.702-27.70252404.2084598109758.1443998739690.073181965290365161115127.5WETL
2023-02-16 23:00:03FORECAST2023144-14022.29815.15218.725148.780215350950.929134362.949134367.3810.32913436TT-9.702-29.70252406.6200723283860.4970219270360.073181965290365161115127.5WETL
2023-02-16 19:00:04FORECAST2023144-14022.29815.13418.716149.025015161190.929134363.019134367.3410.35913436TT-9.702-29.70252406.7389715958660.6142814087210.073181965290365161115127.5WETL
2023-02-16 15:00:05FORECAST2023144-14021.8315.13418.482149.824439259470.913386323.233386327.3310.56338632TT-10.17-29.1752407.1267373574260.9975351321120.065637570138024161115127.5WETL
2023-02-16 11:00:03FORECAST2023144-14022.02815.33218.68151.121854580711.468504733.238504737.4410.67850473TT-9.972-30.97252407.7543834766961.620598644410.068752633114681161115127.5WETL
2023-02-16 07:00:14FORECAST2023144-14021.95615.31418.635150.749066097571.468504733.258504737.4310.68850473TT-10.044-30.04452407.57425260561.4414379456180.06760699446337161115127.5WETL
2023-02-16 03:00:11FORECAST2023144-14022.44214.57618.509151.903332678111.551181943.561181947.3510.91118194TT-9.558-29.55852408.1314395053461.9965258315770.075631578956199161115127.5WETL
2023-02-15 23:00:03FORECAST2023144-14022.78415.51219.148154.316641678771.149606923.019606925.838.84960692TT-9.216-30.21652409.2911257935163.1604320013780.081698355392075161115127.5WETL
2023-02-15 19:00:05FORECAST2023144-14022.85615.5319.193154.401087429931.153543933.013543935.888.89354393TT-9.144-30.14452409.3315765890363.2012405447550.083020925618178161115127.5WETL
2023-02-15 15:00:06FORECAST2023144-14025.26820.06622.667155.409301064352.051182212.971182215.678.64118221TT-6.732-31.73252409.8138566279863.6888850250380.13705267268557161115127.5WETL
2023-02-15 11:00:05FORECAST2023144-14025.26820.06622.667155.409301064352.051182212.971182215.678.64118221TT-6.732-31.73252409.8138566279863.6888850250380.13705267268557161115127.5WETL
2023-02-15 07:00:14FORECAST2023144-14025.17819.88622.532155.25261257332.059056233.019056235.668.67905623TT-6.822-30.82252409.738985557763.6130479809660.13468298636404161115127.5WETL
2023-02-15 03:00:17FORECAST2023144-14026.13218.66222.397153.87385993961.933071912.883071915.78.58307191TT-5.868-30.86852409.0788845496962.9465469854470.16124458599608161115127.5WETL
2023-02-14 23:00:09FORECAST2023144-14027.6821.41624.548146.398594533142.299213843.279213844.858.12921384TT-4.32-26.3252405.4594524943959.3586939853540.21111815990391161115127.5WETL
2023-02-14 19:00:07FORECAST2023144-14027.69821.39824.548146.106394831672.303150853.303150854.828.12315085TT-4.302-26.30252405.3165725599659.2193431822650.21174657674961161115127.5WETL
2023-02-14 15:00:07FORECAST2023144-14027.71621.45224.584144.453728090022.078741283.218741284.687.89874128TT-4.284-27.28452404.5064517849858.4324649968060.21237608477257161115127.5WETL
2023-02-14 11:00:09FORECAST2023144-14026.13220.44423.288144.522983582611.696851313.056851314.697.74685131TT-5.868-27.86852404.540468449258.4653954801840.16124458599608161115127.5WETL
2023-02-14 07:00:23FORECAST2023144-14026.13220.44423.288144.665457263531.69291433.05291434.677.7229143TT-5.868-29.86852404.6104293458858.5331527749130.16124458599608161115127.5WETL
2023-02-14 03:00:19FORECAST2023144-14024.76420.08422.424143.812017059421.779528522.849528524.667.50952852TT-7.236-31.23652404.1909737049458.1275192057170.12414449101233161115127.5WETL
2023-02-13 23:00:04FORECAST2023144-14024.45816.77220.615135.93053056580.870079211.910079215.157.06007921TT-7.542-32.54252400.2740417444154.4094628660370.11673435432472161115127.5WETL
2023-02-13 19:00:09FORECAST2023144-14024.72816.82620.777135.95558131460.870079211.930079215.167.09007921TT-7.272-33.27252400.2866160670854.4211995798540.12325606613111161115127.5WETL
2023-02-13 15:00:08FORECAST2023144-14024.56617.20420.885130.528724908080.47244121.29244125.146.4324412TT-7.434-35.43452397.5438103587151.8908866612240.11931315404421161114126WETL
2023-02-13 11:00:07FORECAST2023144-14024.56619.09421.83135.765412190250.19685051.35685055.166.5168505TT-7.434-29.43452400.1911399010154.3321150635450.11931315404421161114126WETL
2023-02-13 07:00:19FORECAST2023144-14024.3518.80621.578135.571036976580.185039471.345039475.246.58503947TT-7.65-28.6552400.0935043581354.2410912734260.11419519985501161114126WETL
2023-02-13 03:00:19FORECAST2023144-14023.70218.44621.074138.821648037070.519685321.779685325.166.93968532TT-8.298-32.29852401.7199802127355.767429702550.099781779354634161115127.5WETL
2023-02-12 23:00:08FORECAST2023144-14024.18817.18620.687139.60299921120.263779671.443779675.26.64377967TT-7.812-37.81252402.1089392563456.1356139298170.1104603964145161114126WETL
2023-02-12 19:00:10FORECAST2023144-14024.67417.67221.173142.243508576530.362204921.712204925.266.97220492TT-7.326-40.32652403.4176953553857.3835484092080.12193177301024161115127.5WETL
2023-02-12 15:00:09FORECAST2023144-14029.53417.31223.423137.980384633590.248031631.228031635.176.39803163TT-2.466-39.46652401.3003327784955.3715742703630.28133431805598162114128WETL
2023-02-12 11:00:09FORECAST2023144-14031.74817.99624.872137.285961354510.204724521.164724525.096.25472452TT-0.252-36.25252400.9532573772155.0452533972510.3775848969679162114128WETL
2023-02-12 07:00:20FORECAST2023144-14031.7317.99624.863138.313941097680.204724521.214724525.266.47472452TT-0.27-33.2752401.4668280465555.5284592071040.37676014255465162114128WETL
2023-02-12 03:00:23FORECAST2023144-14028.18419.34623.765144.941418867260.496063261.846063265.367.20606326TT-3.816-35.81652404.7458667431758.6644402064120.22912254665042161115127.5WETL
2023-02-11 23:00:08FORECAST2023144-14021.86621.86621.866140.960531983980.011811031.071811035.386.45181103TT-10.134-49.13452402.7828903172756.7764904931680.066195684389156161114126WETL
2023-02-11 19:00:08FORECAST2023144-14021.84821.84821.848141.198033299970.011811031.071811035.46.47181103TT-10.152-52.15252402.9005598700456.8887666691040.065916171071476161114126WETL
2023-02-11 15:00:10FORECAST2023144-14025.4325.4325.43136.0617155937900.395.55.89TF-6.57-41.5752400.3398817143754.4709311266720.14138932500217161112123WETL
2023-02-11 11:00:10FORECAST2023144-14012.63212.63212.632139.6868298022800.715.576.28TF-19.368-66.36852402.1506245502556.1751458464320.0043385824065168161113124.5WETL
2023-02-11 07:00:18FORECAST2023144-14012.63212.63212.632139.3312801939400.715.566.27TF-19.368-64.36852401.9737642223656.0075191734780.0043385824065168161113124.5WETL
2023-02-11 03:00:16FORECAST2023144-14017.38417.38417.384138.7513485459700.635.576.2TF-14.616-56.61652401.6849470419455.7343280926860.020298974976862161113124.5WETL