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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, February 20, 2023

[ Sunday, February 19, 2023 | Index | Today | Tuesday, February 21, 2023 ]

DAY 143 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/21/2023 07:00:17 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.72°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.85°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.78°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.356
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 0

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.94 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.62 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.25 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.87 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 130 in
SWE DAY: 51
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 396.49 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 51.52 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -141

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-02-21 07:00:17OBSERVATION2023143-14131.7199227.8499229.78492129.95052750.940000000000051.62000000000016.257.8700000000001TT-0.28008-0.2800851396.48542377618 51.5234899657760.3559930664916516 21151210WETL
2023-02-21 03:00:15OBSERVATION2023143-14131.7199227.8499229.78492129.95052750.940000000000051.62000000000016.257.8700000000001TT-0.28008-0.2800851396.48542377618 51.5234899657760.3559930664916516 21151210WETL
2023-02-20 11:00:04FORECAST2023143-14131.2824.92628.103136.442217738221.566929982.246929986.258.49692998TT-0.72-0.7251399.7792964274754.5467738103870.336835488688431621151210WETL
2023-02-20 07:00:18FORECAST2023143-14131.4626.16828.814137.037727068941.720473372.400473376.258.65047337TT-0.54-0.5451400.0787460256654.8258820039480.344626462282621621151210WETL
2023-02-20 03:00:19FORECAST2023143-14130.68626.49228.589136.741335233171.637796162.317796166.258.56779616TT-1.314-1.31451399.9297631371754.6869298108610.311632536192991621151210WETL
2023-02-19 23:00:01FORECAST2023143-14130.68626.49228.589134.988758705841.637796162.347796166.258.59779616TT-1.314-4.31451399.0465254145653.866795131590.311632536192991621151210WETL
2023-02-19 19:00:02FORECAST2023143-14130.68626.4228.553135.186918684931.696851312.406851316.258.65685131TT-1.314-4.31451399.146588423253.9593973925340.311632536192991621151210WETL
2023-02-19 15:00:02FORECAST2023143-14130.68626.61828.652134.67952817771.559055962.269055966.258.51905596TT-1.314-4.31451398.8902754846653.7223540969490.311632536192991621151210WETL
2023-02-19 11:00:06FORECAST2023143-14130.54226.56428.553136.01370539021.562992972.272992976.258.52299297TT-1.458-4.45851399.5635402255354.3461176448990.305647588491241621151210WETL
2023-02-19 07:00:15FORECAST2023143-14130.52426.628.562135.749471481471.645670182.345670186.258.59567018TT-1.476-3.47651399.4303812116754.2224631431250.304903060162551621151210WETL
2023-02-19 03:00:14FORECAST2023143-14130.70426.38428.544135.845068577081.720473372.420473376.258.67047337TT-1.296-3.29651399.4785670838454.2671933405760.312384206874811621151210WETL
2023-02-18 23:00:02FORECAST2023143-14130.90226.99628.949134.55967543281.708662342.158662346.258.40866234TT-1.098-6.09851398.8296825332653.6663926346440.32070354879131621151210WETL
2023-02-18 19:00:07FORECAST2023143-14130.5627.08628.823135.010208103121.822835632.262835636.258.51283563TT-1.44-7.4451399.0573589488753.8768170767690.306392920479241621151210WETL
2023-02-18 15:00:08FORECAST2023143-14130.3826.9628.67135.281998586721.905512842.325512846.258.57551284TT-1.62-7.6251399.1945821629754.0038408999960.29897606113141621151210WETL
2023-02-18 11:00:07FORECAST2023143-14129.87627.01428.445136.319047837031.952756962.412756966.258.66275696TT-2.124-7.12451399.7173043618154.4890823345860.278655476716881621151210WETL
2023-02-18 07:00:15FORECAST2023143-14129.73226.67228.202137.056715505222.019686132.449686136.258.69968613TT-2.268-7.26851400.0882868389254.834786506250.27297547097441621151210WETL
2023-02-18 03:00:17FORECAST2023143-14129.73226.67228.202137.056715505222.019686132.449686136.258.69968613TT-2.268-7.26851400.0882868389254.834786506250.27297547097441621151210WETL
2023-02-17 23:00:05FORECAST2023143-14129.73226.67228.202137.34597117542.019686132.449686136.18.54968613TT-2.268-11.26851400.2335675883554.9704680374170.27297547097441621151210WETL
2023-02-17 19:00:09FORECAST2023143-14129.58826.8728.229136.663551884311.921260882.281260886.18.38126088TT-2.412-12.41251399.8906463516454.650476095730.267353396054491621151210WETL
2023-02-17 15:00:04FORECAST2023143-14130.3826.79828.589135.538535598221.685040282.045040286.18.14504028TT-1.62-10.6251399.324017235154.1237925252440.29897606113141621151210WETL
2023-02-17 11:00:02FORECAST2023143-14129.96626.61828.292136.067013524821.665355231.855355236.17.95535523TT-2.034-11.03451399.5903936920954.371071502890.282234430827041621151210WETL
2023-02-17 07:00:16FORECAST2023143-14126.70823.23424.971133.729142837160.51181131.03181135.966.9918113TT-5.292-13.29251398.4092899247753.2789328400020.16830552076379161114126WETL
2023-02-17 03:00:12FORECAST2023143-14128.9942325.997137.915371498591.996064072.086064077.889.96606407TT-3.006-8.00651400.5192413363755.2377599612390.24479577329537161115127.5WETL
2023-02-16 23:00:03FORECAST2023143-14128.9942325.997142.314654488311.996064072.086064077.689.76606407TT-3.006-10.00651402.7125322899557.3118948909580.24479577329537161115127.5WETL
2023-02-16 19:00:04FORECAST2023143-14128.97622.98225.979142.558620097062.062993242.152993247.659.80299324TT-3.024-10.02451402.8334471568957.4273803556290.24412854849395161115127.5WETL
2023-02-16 15:00:05FORECAST2023143-14129.40822.53225.97143.444139913422.267717762.377717767.6410.01771776TT-2.592-8.59251403.271701763657.8469624109030.260408805244831621151210WETL
2023-02-16 11:00:03FORECAST2023143-14128.61621.86625.241141.436921208491.669292241.849292247.739.57929224TT-3.384-11.38451402.2768876060356.8968044563310.23099194315857161115127.5WETL
2023-02-16 07:00:14FORECAST2023143-14128.68821.77625.232141.046985779771.669292241.899292247.699.58929224TT-3.312-10.31251402.0830394539956.7126007481530.23358732065123161115127.5WETL
2023-02-16 03:00:11FORECAST2023143-14128.74222.69425.718141.737767811151.704725332.114725337.629.73472533TT-3.258-10.25851402.4263159797457.0390077354330.23554439997081161115127.5WETL
2023-02-15 23:00:03FORECAST2023143-14129.3923.16226.276146.184957394221.440945661.890945666.188.07094566TT-2.61-10.6151404.6219355956959.1496404158240.259719484674481621151210WETL
2023-02-15 19:00:05FORECAST2023143-14129.31823.23426.276146.284491752141.437008651.857008656.258.10700865TT-2.682-10.68251404.670793451859.1970613470310.256971636900851621151210WETL
2023-02-15 15:00:05FORECAST2023143-14126.94223.19825.07141.148387304980.492126251.002126255.966.96212625TT-5.058-15.05851402.1334675512856.7604904262250.17534632698334161114126WETL
2023-02-15 11:00:05FORECAST2023143-14126.94223.19825.07141.148387304980.492126251.002126255.966.96212625TT-5.058-15.05851402.1334675512856.7604904262250.17534632698334161114126WETL
2023-02-15 07:00:13FORECAST2023143-14126.74423.28825.016140.91404924710.51181131.01181135.986.9918113TT-5.256-14.25651402.0169089713156.649830508950.16937675280402161114126WETL
2023-02-15 03:00:16FORECAST2023143-14126.94223.2725.106140.940898983180.586614491.056614495.967.01661449TT-5.058-15.05851402.030267415456.6625073079750.17534632698334161114126WETL
2023-02-14 23:00:08FORECAST2023143-14129.04825.53827.293130.648698351670.744094891.074094895.136.20409489TT-2.952-11.95251396.8422865976151.8469281948780.24680331461275161114126WETL
2023-02-14 19:00:07FORECAST2023143-14129.04825.53827.293130.399002509070.740157881.100157885.096.19015788TT-2.952-11.95251396.7147298329851.7312050508750.24680331461275161114126WETL
2023-02-14 15:00:07FORECAST2023143-14129.13826.25827.698130.378886630420.751968911.171968915.026.19196891TT-2.862-12.86251396.7044501434351.7218845310340.25016867731692162114128WETL
2023-02-14 11:00:09FORECAST2023143-14125.68222.65824.17132.45649195880.661417681.361417685.066.42141768TT-6.318-12.31851397.7633861849552.686342763710.13960833075098161114126WETL
2023-02-14 07:00:23FORECAST2023143-14125.722.67624.188132.609437444590.665354691.355354695.046.39535469TT-6.3-14.351397.8411204635352.7574871769960.14008131413301161114126WETL
2023-02-14 03:00:19FORECAST2023143-14125.75421.45223.603130.673302563340.358267911.068267915.036.09826791TF-6.246-14.24651396.8548512460151.85833405060.14150677218934161114126WETL
2023-02-13 23:00:03FORECAST2023143-14125.73618.12221.929127.957928054130.330708841.040708845.526.56070884TT-6.264-15.26451395.463439748350.6026823713540.14103053451392161114126WETL
2023-02-13 19:00:09FORECAST2023143-14125.91618.19422.055128.055423800710.346456881.056456885.536.58645688TT-6.084-16.08451395.5135647686750.647657155380.14584179144302161114126WETL
2023-02-13 15:00:08FORECAST2023143-14126.22219.97623.099126.328478677380.381889970.821889975.516.33188997TT-5.778-17.77851394.6238587949549.8522317313640.15427069992329161113124.5WETL
2023-02-13 11:00:07FORECAST2023143-14127.01420.71423.864133.895796328250.417323061.157323065.536.68732306TT-4.986-11.98651398.4937164457553.3566334953060.17754967778922161114126WETL
2023-02-13 07:00:19FORECAST2023143-14126.74420.44423.594133.850847250710.425197081.155197085.616.76519708TT-5.256-11.25651398.4709487996953.3356741016320.16937675280402161114126WETL
2023-02-13 03:00:18FORECAST2023143-14126.99620.1223.558134.041357744550.385826981.255826985.536.78582698TT-5.004-14.00451398.5674285053653.4245192696120.17699721244038161114126WETL
2023-02-12 23:00:08FORECAST2023143-14126.45619.1322.793136.629877541510.259842661.179842665.576.74984266TT-5.544-19.54451399.8737093267954.6346959373910.16092895444467161114126WETL
2023-02-12 19:00:10FORECAST2023143-14125.3419.52622.433138.249317179170.259842661.349842665.636.97984266TT-6.66-22.6651400.6865930581655.3946478931380.13082716677048161114126WETL
2023-02-12 15:00:09FORECAST2023143-14123.39618.64421.02135.582281343530.19685050.99685055.526.5168505TT-8.604-26.60451399.3460806193954.1442526559730.088140269925299161114126WETL
2023-02-12 11:00:09FORECAST2023143-14123.86419.421.632135.208351763970.224409571.024409575.46.42440957TT-8.136-26.13651399.1574082685353.9694152663670.097323709368992161114126WETL
2023-02-12 07:00:20FORECAST2023143-14123.84619.421.623136.236053994170.224409571.224409575.426.64440957TT-8.154-23.15451399.6755221815554.4502160200710.096958036544764161114126WETL
2023-02-12 03:00:22FORECAST2023143-14124.6219.74222.181140.139867384990.366141931.756141935.327.07614193TT-7.38-22.3851401.6313411952256.2845628927520.11360460142371161115127.5WETL
2023-02-11 23:00:08FORECAST2023143-14125.98818.93222.46140.810403527410.11811031.52811035.286.8081103TT-6.012-29.01251401.9653339751756.6009008810750.14779674163416161115127.5WETL
2023-02-11 19:00:08FORECAST2023143-14125.9718.91422.442141.04790484340.11811031.52811035.36.8281103TT-6.03-32.0351402.083496572856.7130347637010.14730637138052161115127.5WETL
2023-02-11 15:00:09FORECAST2023143-14131.85618.7725.313136.0617155937901.035.236.26TT-0.144-25.14451399.5877250723654.3685914035640.36199620128572162114128WETL
2023-02-11 11:00:10FORECAST2023143-14123.1813.17218.176139.686829802280.043307111.383307115.276.65330711TT-8.82-36.8251401.4053618211656.0710424584350.08412570914589161114126WETL
2023-02-11 07:00:17FORECAST2023143-14123.3613.17218.266139.331280193940.043307111.373307115.276.64330711TT-8.64-34.6451401.2278281454755.9035869449410.087461469910826161114126WETL
2023-02-11 03:00:16FORECAST2023143-14127.33816.53821.938138.7513485459701.395.186.57TT-4.662-31.66251400.9379113718655.6306758860510.18767910731487161114126WETL
2023-02-10 23:00:10FORECAST2023143-14118.3218.3218.32144.2892706680901.345.286.62TT-13.68-44.6851403.6890490136758.2479984588790.025376725213441161114126WETL
2023-02-10 19:00:10FORECAST2023143-14119.3119.3119.31141.9389795700301.155.296.44TT-12.69-38.6951402.5261927287657.1341570461280.033168454993988161114126WETL
2023-02-10 15:00:10FORECAST2023143-14120.8420.8420.84139.1185801069500.825.246.06TF-11.16-36.1651401.1215456803955.803459885360.048980520560027161113124.5WETL
2023-02-10 11:00:10FORECAST2023143-14117.00617.00617.006145.1961555907701.25.526.72TT-14.994-42.99451404.1358966995258.6789785369980.017450356951856161114126WETL
2023-02-10 07:00:18FORECAST2023143-14117.00617.00617.006142.9421670959801.25.286.48TT-14.994-40.99451403.0233902846557.6090367976590.017450356951856161114126WETL
2023-02-10 03:00:23FORECAST2023143-14128.32828.32828.328143.150416081401.165.46.56TT-3.672-23.67251403.1264434820257.7077181178670.22077275857983161114126WETL