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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, February 17, 2023

[ Thursday, February 16, 2023 | Index | Today | Saturday, February 18, 2023 ]

DAY 140 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/18/2023 07:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 29.62°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 21.46°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 25.54°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.311
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 8

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.45 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.45 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.83 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.28 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 127 in
SWE DAY: 48
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 392.87 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 50.07 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -144

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-02-18 07:00:12OBSERVATION2023140-14429.6200421.4599225.53998127.438978260870.449999999999930.449999999999935.836.2799999999999TF-2.379967.6200448392.87238298104 50.0672550740160.3105620813908816 2112124WETL
2023-02-18 03:00:15OBSERVATION2023140-14429.6200421.4599225.53998127.438978260870.449999999999930.449999999999935.836.2799999999999TF-2.379967.6200448392.87238298104 50.0672550740160.3105620813908816 2112124WETL
2023-02-17 11:00:01FORECAST2023140-14426.22219.99423.108128.231932316520.303149770.303149775.836.13314977TF-5.7784.22248393.2849142016450.4316844990130.18321930900455161112123WETL
2023-02-17 07:00:15FORECAST2023140-14428.02219.09423.558128.240338560160.161417410.161417415.835.99141741TF-3.9786.02248393.2892830674350.4355508126510.24618741287656161112123WETL
2023-02-17 03:00:10FORECAST2023140-14426.76219.09422.928128.59405710320.295275752.075275755.837.90527575TT-5.2388.76248393.4730320067950.5982935464490.20096812360578161115127.5WETL
2023-02-16 23:00:01FORECAST2023140-14426.76219.09422.928132.219182840020.295275751.875275755.837.70527575TT-5.2386.76248395.3467190784952.2724201350420.20096812360578161115127.5WETL
2023-02-16 19:00:02FORECAST2023140-14426.67218.91422.793132.169327584220.271653691.851653695.837.68165369TT-5.3286.67248395.3210676564752.2493196920330.19794054688937161115127.5WETL
2023-02-16 15:00:02FORECAST2023140-14427.12219.25623.189132.12040258960.263779671.843779675.837.67377967TT-4.8787.12248395.2958917123452.2266523550510.21335284715394161115127.5WETL
2023-02-16 11:00:02FORECAST2023140-14427.08618.60822.847132.50143840880.350393891.930393895.837.76039389TT-4.9147.08648395.4918833864652.4032434277120.21209474723153161115127.5WETL
2023-02-16 07:00:12FORECAST2023140-14426.9618.33822.649131.914981599930.31496081.89496085.837.7249608TT-5.046.9648395.1901515221952.1315015665220.20772563108139161115127.5WETL
2023-02-16 03:00:10FORECAST2023140-14426.6918.73422.712131.654720215790.244094621.824094625.837.65409462TT-5.316.6948395.0561030535952.0110007170620.19854385282138161115127.5WETL
2023-02-15 23:00:02FORECAST2023140-14426.8717.85222.361136.796488013670.381889970.381889975.836.21188997TF-5.133.8748397.688038578154.4023270025280.2046375787299161112123WETL
2023-02-15 19:00:03FORECAST2023140-14427.10418.08622.595137.070045934290.425197080.445197085.836.27519708TF-4.8964.10448397.8271049606154.5301795508560.2127232552019161112123WETL
2023-02-15 15:00:04FORECAST2023140-14428.11219.09423.603135.785341221560.161417410.161417415.835.99141741TF-3.8885.11248397.1731707366453.9302945125210.24961340466713162112124WETL
2023-02-15 11:00:04FORECAST2023140-14428.11219.09423.603135.785341221560.161417410.161417415.835.99141741TF-3.8885.11248397.1731707366453.9302945125210.24961340466713162112124WETL
2023-02-15 07:00:12FORECAST2023140-14427.9519.20223.576135.481040377260.173228440.183228445.836.01322844TF-4.055.9548397.0179641501153.7884068315190.24346485362099161112123WETL
2023-02-15 03:00:15FORECAST2023140-14427.84218.8623.351135.339087954990.15748040.15748045.835.9874804TF-4.1584.84248396.9455212343153.7222448116670.23941165405521161112123WETL
2023-02-14 23:00:07FORECAST2023140-14428.02219.5823.801124.57401172590.106299270.106299275.055.15629927TF-3.9786.02248391.3749521314748.755147876050.24618741287656161112123WETL
2023-02-14 19:00:06FORECAST2023140-14427.89619.07623.486124.361164577580.070866180.070866185.055.12086618TF-4.1045.89648391.2632679447448.6579556580390.24143364088728161111121.5WETL
2023-02-14 15:00:05FORECAST2023140-14428.32819.2223.774124005.055.05TF-3.6725.32848391.0736211061848.4931290171660.25793786884523162111122WETL
2023-02-14 11:00:09FORECAST2023140-14429.67819.5824.629124.371953134740.03937010.03937015.055.0893701TF-2.3227.67848391.2689303201348.6628810648550.31302842920492162111122WETL
2023-02-14 07:00:20FORECAST2023140-14429.91219.50824.71124.579366556620.023622060.023622065.055.07362206TF-2.0885.91248391.377761115348.7575935640910.32307007302799162111122WETL
2023-02-14 03:00:18FORECAST2023140-14431.06419.50825.286124.50814514857005.065.06TF-0.9366.06448391.3403973720148.7250669984910.37428222167529162111122WETL
2023-02-13 23:00:03FORECAST2023140-14432.4520.19226.321121.17854006753005.555.55TF0.455.4548389.5860742681947.2094717104580.43888956442842162111122WETL
2023-02-13 19:00:08FORECAST2023140-14432.32420.10226.213121.24754645211005.565.56TF0.3244.32448389.6225835453147.24078229720.43292034477502162111122WETL
2023-02-13 15:00:07FORECAST2023140-14431.22619.70625.466121.14185093846005.545.54TF-0.7742.22648389.5666605080947.1928263178650.38169094807958162111122WETL
2023-02-13 11:00:06FORECAST2023140-14430.41618.84224.629126.93185909227005.565.56TF-1.5843.41648392.6081202973949.8344786040690.3451331375869162111122WETL
2023-02-13 07:00:18FORECAST2023140-14430.3818.8624.62126.83941390799005.645.64TF-1.624.3848392.559909893549.7920688946660.34353850962416162111122WETL
2023-02-13 03:00:18FORECAST2023140-14431.33419.79625.565126.45000667095005.565.56TF-0.6664.33448392.3567086879349.613508430980.38665446953294162111122WETL
2023-02-12 23:00:07FORECAST2023140-14431.60421.43426.519128.8111848715700.045.565.6TF-0.3960.60448393.5857433227850.6982459459660.39914297889815162111122WETL
2023-02-12 19:00:08FORECAST2023140-14430.14620.58825.367129.06032437377005.665.66TF-1.854-0.85448393.7149954127750.8129850187880.33324225025926162111122WETL
2023-02-12 15:00:08FORECAST2023140-14430.27220.49825.385128.35101506798005.555.55TF-1.728-1.72848393.3467948062650.4864603871220.33877139389294162111122WETL
2023-02-12 11:00:09FORECAST2023140-14430.00220.91225.457127.82919683233005.435.43TF-1.998-1.99848393.0754964888150.2465250106330.32696734725196162111122WETL
2023-02-12 07:00:19FORECAST2023140-14430.70421.95626.33127.7197187694005.455.45TF-1.2960.70448393.0185321427150.1962163964280.35798713397549162111122WETL
2023-02-12 03:00:22FORECAST2023140-14430.00220.78625.394127.4195058380200.035.325.35TF-1.9983.00248392.8622420737450.0583127474520.32696734725196162111122WETL
2023-02-11 23:00:07FORECAST2023140-14428.81420.55224.683128.74817411274005.315.31TF-3.186-4.18648393.5530407551350.669235413740.27718029828319162111122WETL
2023-02-11 19:00:07FORECAST2023140-14428.23820.98424.611128.94385672483005.335.33TF-3.762-6.76248393.6545828708850.7593401327760.25445195293666162111122WETL
2023-02-11 15:00:09FORECAST2023140-14428.99421.59625.295128.43490287142005.265.26TF-3.006-7.00648393.3903753415850.5250546475490.28448099056664162111122WETL
2023-02-11 11:00:09FORECAST2023140-14428.36419.54423.954128.657196993180.007874020.007874025.295.29787402TF-3.636-6.63648393.505814418550.6273550836030.25933913058738162111122WETL
2023-02-11 07:00:16FORECAST2023140-14428.41819.54423.981128.402904459710.007874020.007874025.295.29787402TF-3.582-5.58248393.3737529488450.5103324168480.26144836370392162111122WETL
2023-02-11 03:00:16FORECAST2023140-14428.61620.6624.638128.12182379925005.215.21TF-3.384-7.38448393.2276803447450.3810475741170.26925677678065162111122WETL
2023-02-10 23:00:09FORECAST2023140-14429.13821.12825.133132.317319114010.177165450.3071654555.30716545TF-2.862-11.86248395.3972024599952.3178978146880.29038682565838162112124WETL
2023-02-10 19:00:10FORECAST2023140-14429.94819.88624.917132.2676146880.188976480.298976485.025.31897648TF-2.052-10.05248395.3716350213852.2948630795730.32462668532984162112124WETL
2023-02-10 15:00:10FORECAST2023140-14430.05619.25624.656132.030032023870.137795350.237795355.035.26779535TF-1.944-11.94448395.2493803767852.1847883485620.3293148315068162112124WETL
2023-02-10 11:00:09FORECAST2023140-14429.42620.46224.944134.719417413860.192913490.472913495.085.55291349TF-2.574-14.57448396.6289772360453.4336247426960.30236739380069162112124WETL
2023-02-10 07:00:18FORECAST2023140-14429.31821.59625.457132.459652252320.098425250.208425255.15.30842525TF-2.682-12.68248395.4703992889852.3838715659060.29784873350495162112124WETL
2023-02-10 03:00:22FORECAST2023140-14430.03822.35226.195132.877150639020.208661530.208661535.225.42866153TF-1.962-7.96248395.6849511491252.5774888594360.32853158359672162112124WETL
2023-02-09 23:00:07FORECAST2023140-14430.7421.97426.357136.554658814980.066929170.066929175.285.34692917TF-1.26-12.2648397.5650213711354.2893558501060.3596056192909162111122WETL
2023-02-09 19:00:09FORECAST2023140-14430.70421.99226.348136.736017106550.066929170.066929175.325.38692917TF-1.296-13.29648397.6572844390454.3740732475990.35798713397549162111122WETL
2023-02-09 15:00:09FORECAST2023140-14430.3822.15426.267136.040473270340.031496080.031496085.25.23149608TF-1.62-12.6248397.3032066900154.0493162699340.34353850962416162111122WETL
2023-02-09 11:00:11FORECAST2023140-14428.43621.0224.728139.261782812760.149606380.379606385.295.66960638TF-3.564-18.56448398.9378185560755.5567918435530.26215339116216162112124WETL
2023-02-09 07:00:13FORECAST2023140-14428.02220.76824.395139.3480384030.149606380.379606385.275.64960638TF-3.978-21.97848398.9814042463255.5972760410010.24618741287656161112123WETL
2023-02-09 03:00:13FORECAST2023140-14426.94222.38824.665141.173905687020.342519870.662519875.245.90251987TF-5.058-25.05848399.9017936989156.4556981077210.20710583238685161113124.5WETL
2023-02-08 23:00:07FORECAST2023140-14428.25621.77625.016135.287033308550.303149770.303149775.235.53314977TF-3.744-31.74448396.9189495172853.6979871441370.25514715853267162112124WETL
2023-02-08 19:00:07FORECAST2023140-14428.25621.7424.998135.093933739180.303149770.303149775.235.53314977TF-3.744-28.74448396.8203495790453.608022012390.25514715853267162112124WETL
2023-02-08 15:00:06FORECAST2023140-14429.33621.72225.529138.909089429270.374015950.374015955.756.12401595TF-2.664-35.66448398.7595001773155.39131907090.29859970433035162112124WETL
2023-02-08 11:00:08FORECAST2023140-14430.41621.0225.718137.695658890830.326771830.416771835.295.70677183TF-1.584-34.58448398.1447797084254.8228077758950.3451331375869162112124WETL
2023-02-08 07:00:18FORECAST2023140-14430.41621.0225.718137.461369014740.326771830.416771835.35.71677183TF-1.584-35.58448398.0258707412354.7131810953750.3451331375869162112124WETL
2023-02-08 03:00:21FORECAST2023140-14433.4421.4727.455136.76634406120.326771830.366771835.315.67677183TF1.44-32.5648397.6727086344254.3882424928450.48616740629589162112124WETL
2023-02-07 23:00:06FORECAST2023140-14421.30821.30821.308130.3592375847600.375.425.79TF-10.692-51.69248394.3875406027351.41205910590.067427730606839161112123WETL
2023-02-07 19:00:07FORECAST2023140-14421.32621.32621.326130.2729922057200.375.395.76TF-10.674-50.67448394.3429536158551.3722365227770.067711446732151161112123WETL
2023-02-07 15:00:07FORECAST2023140-14421.77621.77621.776127.286439467500.035.525.55TF-10.224-44.22448392.7929299401749.9972135000930.075106909069218161111121.5WETL
2023-02-07 11:00:10FORECAST2023140-14427.82427.82427.824137.17795588470.043307110.563307115.446.00330711TF-4.176-23.17648397.8819356806554.5806306201180.23873971606973161113124.5WETL
2023-02-07 07:00:14FORECAST2023140-14427.82427.82427.824137.313487499050.043307110.563307115.446.00330711TF-4.176-23.17648397.9507801088654.6440094697150.23873971606973161113124.5WETL
2023-02-07 03:00:14FORECAST2023140-14421.88421.88421.884133.04863243223005.695.69TF-10.116-33.11648395.7730095161552.6570576697130.076969956459005161111121.5WETL