MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, February 16, 2023

[ Wednesday, February 15, 2023 | Index | Today | Friday, February 17, 2023 ]

DAY 139 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/17/2023 07:00:14 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 29.28°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 19.42°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 24.35°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.284
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 5

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.80 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.03 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.83 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 127 in
SWE DAY: 47
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 392.09 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 49.97 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -145

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-02-17 07:00:14FORECAST2023139-14529.28219.41824.35127.4423304166700.85.035.83TF-2.7185.28247392.0935482016449.9693155241560.28390514110411162113126WETL
2023-02-17 07:00:12OBSERVATION2023139-14529.9318.8099624.36998127.442330416670.200000000000052.585.037.61TT-2.078.9347392.09354820164 49.9693155241560.3112635797965316 21151210WETL
2023-02-17 03:00:09OBSERVATION2023139-14529.9318.8099624.36998127.442330416670.200000000000052.585.037.61TT-2.078.9347392.09354820164 49.9693155241560.3112635797965316 21151210WETL
2023-02-16 11:00:02FORECAST2023139-14528.45419.86824.16113102.385.037.41TT-3.5467.45447393.9449366235551.6067866976840.250715638762751621151210WETL
2023-02-16 07:00:12FORECAST2023139-14528.00419.4923.747130.5361562502.385.037.41TT-3.9967.00447393.7045026813351.3926724783380.23357835754405161115127.5WETL
2023-02-16 03:00:09FORECAST2023139-14528.25619.6723.963130.5361562502.385.037.41TT-3.7447.25647393.7045026813351.3926724783380.24309437362857161115127.5WETL
2023-02-15 23:00:01FORECAST2023139-14528.72419.88624.30513500.85.035.83TF-3.2763.72447396.0066289355853.4608949063040.26130844575032162113126WETL
2023-02-15 19:00:02FORECAST2023139-14528.65219.86824.26135.085434654310.015748040.815748045.035.84574804TF-3.3483.65247396.050435855853.5006452726080.25846141777316162113126WETL
2023-02-15 15:00:02FORECAST2023139-14529.31819.20224.2613500.85.035.83TF-2.6824.31847396.0066289355853.4608949063040.28539446756269162113126WETL
2023-02-15 11:00:04FORECAST2023139-14529.31819.20224.2613500.85.035.83TF-2.6824.31847396.0066289355853.4608949063040.28539446756269162113126WETL
2023-02-15 07:00:12FORECAST2023139-14529.33619.47224.404134.588969958910.007874020.807874025.035.83787402TF-2.6645.33647395.7957388972953.2697408123120.28614052191469162113126WETL
2023-02-15 03:00:15FORECAST2023139-14529.0320.9324.98134.5404133333300.85.035.83TF-2.974.0347395.7708110677253.247168506320.27358523625891162113126WETL
2023-02-14 23:00:06FORECAST2023139-14528.5820.98424.78212400.025.035.05TF-3.424.5847390.2861856866348.3954870251420.25563052053825162111122WETL
2023-02-14 19:00:05FORECAST2023139-14528.52620.8424.68312400.025.035.05TF-3.4744.52647390.2861856866348.3954870251420.25351800865216162111122WETL
2023-02-14 15:00:04FORECAST2023139-14529.28220.91225.09712400.025.035.05TF-2.7184.28247390.2861856866348.3954870251420.28390514110411162111122WETL
2023-02-14 11:00:08FORECAST2023139-14528.5821.12824.854124.1161819024500.025.035.05TF-3.424.5847390.34744390648.4484343529930.25563052053825162111122WETL
2023-02-14 07:00:20FORECAST2023139-14528.38221.07424.728124.4371955540100.025.035.05TF-3.6183.38247390.5166080285248.5947915203330.24792973528335161111121.5WETL
2023-02-14 03:00:17FORECAST2023139-14528.07620.85824.467124.5081451485700.035.035.06TF-3.9242.07647390.5539776308448.627151335210.23627598424779161111121.5WETL
2023-02-13 23:00:03FORECAST2023139-14528.00420.28224.143121.1810000675300.035.525.55TF-3.9960.003999999999997847388.7942819972147.1144799129570.23357835754405161111121.5WETL
2023-02-13 19:00:07FORECAST2023139-14527.6820.15623.918121.2493176521100.045.525.56TF-4.32-1.3247388.8305642669947.1454405996560.22165247683509161111121.5WETL
2023-02-13 15:00:07FORECAST2023139-14527.30221.1124.206121.1418509384600.025.525.54TF-4.698-1.69847388.7734877442247.0967399011360.20818832079193161111121.5WETL
2023-02-13 11:00:06FORECAST2023139-14528.18421.224.692126.9318590922700.045.525.56TF-3.8160.18447391.826527067949.7352695223960.24035434125915161111121.5WETL
2023-02-13 07:00:17FORECAST2023139-14528.61621.18224.899126.8394139079900.095.555.64TF-3.3840.61647391.7781331159549.6929087863950.25704394493307162111122WETL
2023-02-13 03:00:17FORECAST2023139-14528.20220.4824.341126.4500066709500.095.475.56TF-3.7980.20247391.5741582768449.5145549262760.24103777053192161111121.5WETL
2023-02-12 23:00:07FORECAST2023139-14527.89620.94824.422128.811184871570.03937010.18937015.415.5993701TF-4.104-4.10447392.8078721281850.5980474357110.22956408189364161112123WETL
2023-02-12 19:00:08FORECAST2023139-14528.32820.6624.494129.0603243737700.185.485.66TF-3.672-3.67247392.9376163104950.7126562196860.24585118366879161112123WETL
2023-02-12 15:00:08FORECAST2023139-14528.43620.76824.602128.3510150679800.175.385.55TF-3.564-4.56447392.568013879950.3865030647070.2500176145798162112124WETL
2023-02-12 11:00:09FORECAST2023139-14528.00419.3123.657127.8291968323300.125.315.43TF-3.996-4.99647392.2956826675950.1468420361860.23357835754405161112123WETL
2023-02-12 07:00:19FORECAST2023139-14528.09419.5823.837127.719718769400.075.385.45TF-3.906-2.90647392.2385014451750.0965910951060.23695305725967161111121.5WETL
2023-02-12 03:00:21FORECAST2023139-14528.68819.81424.251127.419505838020.031496080.111496085.245.35149608TF-3.312-0.31247392.0816163440949.9588458027350.25988292334886162112124WETL
2023-02-11 23:00:07FORECAST2023139-14529.319.56224.431128.7481741127400.075.245.31TF-2.7-5.747392.7750450543650.5690698877980.28464933981779162111122WETL
2023-02-11 19:00:07FORECAST2023139-14529.10219.47224.287128.9438567248300.075.265.33TF-2.898-7.89847392.8769737642150.6590722155370.27651477539656162111122WETL
2023-02-11 15:00:09FORECAST2023139-14529.3919.4924.44128.43490287142005.265.26TF-2.61-8.6147392.611760336350.4250533049710.28838422019298162111122WETL
2023-02-11 11:00:09FORECAST2023139-14528.79618.62623.711128.6015670615900.015.285.29TF-3.204-8.20447392.6986460079450.5016612595870.26417147639198162111122WETL
2023-02-11 07:00:16FORECAST2023139-14528.83218.71623.774128.3486219659200.015.285.29TF-3.168-7.16847392.5667657698950.3854034161820.26560895181449162111122WETL
2023-02-11 03:00:15FORECAST2023139-14529.40818.84224.125128.1218237992500.025.195.21TF-2.592-8.59247392.4484459223250.281210638750.28913395649344162111122WETL
2023-02-10 23:00:09FORECAST2023139-14527.57217.79822.685131.051106906590.133858340.173858344.965.13385834TF-4.428-14.42847393.9714106266251.6303894521670.21775573864684161112123WETL
2023-02-10 19:00:09FORECAST2023139-14528.43616.722.568130.854914263690.110236280.150236284.985.13023628TF-3.564-12.56447393.8697617075751.5397938993060.2500176145798162112124WETL
2023-02-10 15:00:09FORECAST2023139-14528.09416.82622.46131.013837196130.102362260.172362264.965.13236226TF-3.906-14.90647393.9521047997651.6131769213090.23695305725967161112123WETL
2023-02-10 11:00:09FORECAST2023139-14526.8715.83621.353133.337718833830.27559070.34559075.015.3555907TF-5.13-17.1347395.1523938186952.6887187835120.19340622631011161112123WETL
2023-02-10 07:00:18FORECAST2023139-14528.23815.85422.046131.794087177880.106299270.216299274.995.20629927TF-3.762-14.76247394.3558956116551.9737752853510.24240778839019161112123WETL
2023-02-10 03:00:22FORECAST2023139-14528.8516.19622.523131.4907172507700.065.165.22TF-3.15-11.1547394.1989923010651.8335082371990.26632917227437162111122WETL
2023-02-09 23:00:07FORECAST2023139-14529.3917.72623.558135.9815962844700.15.185.28TF-2.61-15.6147396.509373508653.9179775514530.28838422019298162112124WETL
2023-02-09 19:00:09FORECAST2023139-14529.35417.72623.54136.1553178733100.15.225.32TF-2.646-16.64647396.5982180907153.9989564521280.28688750043773162112124WETL
2023-02-09 15:00:08FORECAST2023139-14529.64219.36424.503135.8022477417400.065.145.2TF-2.358-16.35847396.4176100559253.8344024900020.29896281019701162111122WETL
2023-02-09 11:00:11FORECAST2023139-14529.26420.42624.845138.034115384820.228346580.278346585.245.51834658TF-2.736-19.73647397.5565710008854.8763695935270.28316187383376162112124WETL
2023-02-09 07:00:13FORECAST2023139-14529.15619.9424.548138.107151249360.228346580.278346585.225.49834658TF-2.844-22.84447397.5937334828254.9105378859090.27872196408633162112124WETL
2023-02-09 03:00:12FORECAST2023139-14526.97819.90423.441138.413635437290.322834820.392834825.175.56283482TF-5.022-25.02247397.7496051909655.0539688482270.19704052393883161112123WETL
2023-02-08 23:00:07FORECAST2023139-14528.63418.12223.378132.196189636300.15.135.23TF-3.366-33.36647394.5636772710352.1598147041170.25775217627462162112124WETL
2023-02-08 19:00:07FORECAST2023139-14528.61618.69823.657132.0001731992600.15.135.23TF-3.384-30.38447394.4624146204952.0691070505010.25704394493307162112124WETL
2023-02-08 15:00:06FORECAST2023139-14529.19216.62822.91135.215038713800.25.555.75TF-2.808-37.80847396.1168726481153.5609582703020.28019816700781162112124WETL
2023-02-08 11:00:08FORECAST2023139-14527.55417.74422.649134.90655322950.047244120.417244124.965.37724412TF-4.446-38.44647395.9587028879553.4174238278360.21711013910307161112123WETL
2023-02-08 07:00:18FORECAST2023139-14527.5917.7822.685134.669857907170.047244120.417244124.975.38724412TF-4.41-39.4147395.8372580414753.3073472948080.21840244219818161112123WETL
2023-02-08 03:00:21FORECAST2023139-14527.89616.7922.343134.140315834600.3555.35TF-4.104-39.10447395.5652933443653.0612533824180.22956408189364161112123WETL
2023-02-07 23:00:06FORECAST2023139-14526.72618.89622.811130.359237584760.153543390.563543395.235.79354339TF-5.274-46.27447393.612722034151.3110543480280.18862446520756161113124.5WETL
2023-02-07 19:00:06FORECAST2023139-14526.65418.80622.73130.272992205720.149606380.559606385.25.75960638TF-5.346-45.34647393.5679652943551.271276475210.1862610985951161113124.5WETL
2023-02-07 15:00:07FORECAST2023139-14527.30217.94222.622127.28643946750.031496080.191496085.365.55149608TF-4.698-38.69847392.0120403233449.8978168411490.20818832079193161112123WETL
2023-02-07 11:00:09FORECAST2023139-14531.6419.88625.763136.741623635350.519685320.819685325.145.95968532TF-0.36-24.3647396.8977769437354.2724464365480.38828565163616162113126WETL
2023-02-07 07:00:14FORECAST2023139-14531.71219.86825.79136.877155249710.519685320.819685325.145.95968532TF-0.288-24.28847396.9669601105754.3357082280590.39165351102158162113126WETL
2023-02-07 03:00:13FORECAST2023139-14531.20819.36425.286133.0486324322300.25.495.69TF-0.792-27.79247395.0034657451752.5546709233870.36826263709203162112124WETL
2023-02-06 23:00:05FORECAST2023139-14519.25619.25619.256133.0861097921100.475.445.91TF-12.744-36.74447395.0227790530552.5720449434380.036277254513667161112123WETL
2023-02-06 19:00:08FORECAST2023139-14519.14819.14819.148130.8375902301900.335.165.49TF-12.852-34.85247393.8607835582651.5317958069370.035237354868339161112123WETL
2023-02-06 15:00:06FORECAST2023139-14517.36617.36617.366132.8271255505400.285.655.93TF-14.634-41.63447394.8892784600652.4520077685790.021321851735546161112123WETL
2023-02-06 11:00:08FORECAST2023139-14515.87215.87215.872132.0299966138100.125.65.72TF-16.128-38.12847394.4778247335652.0829058637950.0136739066574161112123WETL
2023-02-06 07:00:13FORECAST2023139-14515.65615.65615.656132.9375935420500.125.695.81TF-16.344-38.34447394.9462329834252.5032017913150.012777516261149161112123WETL
2023-02-06 03:00:13FORECAST2023139-14514.6314.6314.63131.7701006315700.355.125.47TF-17.37-41.3747394.3434941408651.9626819063470.0091796231662319161112123WETL