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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, February 15, 2023

[ Tuesday, February 14, 2023 | Index | Today | Thursday, February 16, 2023 ]

DAY 138 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/17/2023 07:00:14 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 26.62°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 12.85°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 19.73°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.227
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -7

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.56 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.30 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.86 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 127 in
SWE DAY: 46
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 391.31 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 49.87 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -146

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-02-17 07:00:14FORECAST2023138-14626.61812.84819.733127.4423304166701.564.35.86TF-5.382-7.38246391.3099958782749.8694577900620.22713575523688161115127.5WETL
2023-02-16 07:00:10OBSERVATION2023138-14630.0900212.1400621.11504130.536156251.583.144.37.44TT-1.90998-3.9099846392.92708363081 51.2911911836890.364401059434716 21151210WETL
2023-02-16 03:00:08OBSERVATION2023138-14630.0900212.1400621.11504130.536156251.583.144.37.44TT-1.90998-3.9099846392.92708363081 51.2911911836890.364401059434716 21151210WETL
2023-02-15 11:00:02FORECAST2023138-14626.34812.81219.5813501.564.35.86TF-5.652-7.65246395.2379746072653.357126571980.21782840509997161115127.5WETL
2023-02-15 07:00:11FORECAST2023138-14626.67212.90219.787134.5404133333301.564.35.86TF-5.328-7.32846395.0012589267453.143632643190.22902371896601161115127.5WETL
2023-02-15 03:00:14FORECAST2023138-14626.34812.27219.31134.5404133333301.564.35.86TF-5.652-7.65246395.0012589267453.143632643190.21782840509997161115127.5WETL
2023-02-14 23:00:03FORECAST2023138-14626.70811.71419.21112400.784.35.08TF-5.292-7.29246389.4957523248.297473287680.2302872285026161113124.5WETL
2023-02-14 19:00:01FORECAST2023138-14626.74411.46219.10312400.784.35.08TF-5.256-7.25646389.4957523248.297473287680.23155462017771161113124.5WETL
2023-02-14 15:00:03FORECAST2023138-14626.47412.4719.47212400.784.35.08TF-5.526-7.52646389.4957523248.297473287680.222144242941161113124.5WETL
2023-02-14 11:00:07FORECAST2023138-14626.54612.41619.481124.1161819024500.784.35.08TF-5.454-7.45446389.5572437634448.350357728360.22463214857506161113124.5WETL
2023-02-14 07:00:19FORECAST2023138-14626.29412.34419.319124.4371955540100.784.35.08TF-5.706-7.70646389.7270519325448.4965413740170.21599363980435161113124.5WETL
2023-02-14 03:00:17FORECAST2023138-14626.02412.00219.013124.5081451485700.794.35.09TF-5.976-8.97646389.764563809548.5288628845610.20695485784735161113124.5WETL
2023-02-13 23:00:03FORECAST2023138-14625.57411.9318.752121.1810000675301.284.35.58TF-6.426-11.42646387.9981686113547.0180060966920.19239666450025161114126WETL
2023-02-13 19:00:06FORECAST2023138-14625.44811.69618.572121.2493176521101.294.35.59TF-6.552-11.55246388.0345890160547.0489291436110.18843512860317161114126WETL
2023-02-13 15:00:06FORECAST2023138-14625.39411.76818.581121.1418509384601.274.35.57TF-6.606-11.60646387.9772951898847.00028766140.1867528060828161114126WETL
2023-02-13 11:00:06FORECAST2023138-14625.73611.2118.473126.9318590922701.294.35.59TF-6.264-11.26446391.0419581338849.6356827290150.1975640987243161114126WETL
2023-02-13 07:00:17FORECAST2023138-14625.55611.37218.464126.8394139079901.374.35.67TF-6.444-11.44446390.9933799350749.593371152870.19182764011631161114126WETL
2023-02-13 03:00:17FORECAST2023138-14625.48410.83218.158126.4500066709501.294.35.59TF-6.516-10.51646390.78862851749.4152246829040.18956184105229161114126WETL
2023-02-12 23:00:06FORECAST2023138-14624.7110.32817.519128.5744004283801.334.265.59TF-7.29-15.2946391.9031834714950.388716840820.16625277408932161114126WETL
2023-02-12 19:00:07FORECAST2023138-14625.21411.40818.311129.0603243737701.434.265.69TF-6.786-14.78646392.1572775478350.6119454458560.18121236011752161114126WETL
2023-02-12 15:00:07FORECAST2023138-14624.7111.04817.879128.3510150679801.324.265.58TF-7.29-16.2946391.7862679560950.2861651818610.16625277408932161114126WETL
2023-02-12 11:00:08FORECAST2023138-14625.39411.58818.491127.8291968323301.24.265.46TF-6.606-15.60646391.5128999164550.0467795458140.1867528060828161114126WETL
2023-02-12 07:00:18FORECAST2023138-14625.44811.64218.545127.719718769401.214.275.48TF-6.552-13.55246391.4555009920149.9965864974330.18843512860317161114126WETL
2023-02-12 03:00:20FORECAST2023138-14625.50211.60618.554127.2628135568701.094.265.35TF-6.498-12.49846391.2157749712549.7872202306720.19012674488982161114126WETL
2023-02-11 23:00:06FORECAST2023138-14625.5211.91218.716128.7481741127401.094.255.34TF-6.48-18.4846391.9940873456750.4685230087450.19069267972727161114126WETL
2023-02-11 19:00:06FORECAST2023138-14625.41211.1218.266128.9438567248301.14.265.36TF-6.588-19.58846392.0964041214750.5584225553610.18731254673331161114126WETL
2023-02-11 15:00:08FORECAST2023138-14625.21412.23618.725128.4349028714201.044.255.29TF-6.786-20.78646391.8301809652750.3246712343670.18121236011752161114126WETL
2023-02-11 11:00:09FORECAST2023138-14626.09611.98419.04128.6015670615901.084.245.32TF-5.904-19.90446391.9173974305750.4011914682730.20934309492671161114126WETL
2023-02-11 07:00:16FORECAST2023138-14626.11411.91219.013128.3486219659201.094.235.32TF-5.886-18.88646391.7850150942450.2850667942410.20994267374175161114126WETL
2023-02-11 03:00:15FORECAST2023138-14625.26810.88618.077128.12182379925014.245.24TF-6.732-20.73246391.666244775950.1809936012920.18286360658975161114126WETL
2023-02-10 23:00:09FORECAST2023138-14625.23213.119.166130.1605712756600.924.115.03TF-6.768-24.76846392.7314490706151.1181497689490.18176173739793161113124.5WETL
2023-02-10 19:00:09FORECAST2023138-14624.99812.41618.707130.1088625415800.934.125.05TF-7.002-24.00246392.7045004255951.0943358653350.17470096429246161113124.5WETL
2023-02-10 15:00:09FORECAST2023138-14623.23412.23617.735130.3029442674700.954.115.06TF-8.766-25.76646392.805630226351.1837301433260.12715560602311161113124.5WETL
2023-02-10 11:00:09FORECAST2023138-14622.8211.08416.952131.4116584499401.014.15.11TF-9.18-27.1846393.3823909601151.695032401070.11744008804746161114126WETL
2023-02-10 07:00:17FORECAST2023138-14622.38811.62417.006131.0887633474101.034.15.13TF-9.612-25.61246393.2145863115151.5460138497390.10787362792459161114126WETL
2023-02-10 03:00:22FORECAST2023138-14623.75612.5618.158131.4907172507701.034.225.25TF-8.244-23.24446393.4234558858451.7315323977080.14018158049883161114126WETL
2023-02-09 23:00:06FORECAST2023138-14624.6213.78419.202135.9815962844700.974.345.31TF-7.38-28.3846395.7426332440853.8137149863480.16366761535752161113124.5WETL
2023-02-09 19:00:09FORECAST2023138-14624.49413.78419.139136.1553178733100.964.395.35TF-7.506-28.50646395.8318160778753.8946067424510.16009236795979161113124.5WETL
2023-02-09 15:00:08FORECAST2023138-14624.27814.0919.184135.8022477417400.994.245.23TF-7.722-28.72246395.650520426953.7302299941620.15408277500343161113124.5WETL
2023-02-09 11:00:10FORECAST2023138-14623.19813.4618.329136.4991460715600.944.385.32TF-8.802-31.80246396.0082099607754.0547824969720.12628928467662161113124.5WETL
2023-02-09 07:00:13FORECAST2023138-14622.69412.90217.798136.5633383080900.944.365.3TF-9.306-35.30646396.0411253865754.0846981900850.11459001852181161113124.5WETL
2023-02-09 03:00:11FORECAST2023138-14623.0913.33418.212136.2110176131700.794.485.27TF-8.91-34.9146395.8604021246953.9205482061650.12371495861893161113124.5WETL
2023-02-08 23:00:06FORECAST2023138-14623.59411.7517.672132.196189636300.974.295.26TF-8.406-45.40646393.7895292950652.057475291480.1360457648884161113124.5WETL
2023-02-08 19:00:07FORECAST2023138-14624.7111.64218.176132.0001731992600.884.385.26TF-7.29-42.2946393.6878811144151.966868493550.16625277408932161113124.5WETL
2023-02-08 15:00:06FORECAST2023138-14623.39611.76817.582135.215038713801.344.445.78TF-8.604-49.60446395.3486380428653.4570813984130.13110502369341161114126WETL
2023-02-08 11:00:08FORECAST2023138-14623.912.23618.068134.482898017180.043307111.103307114.265.36330711TF-8.1-49.146394.97161550753.116927487910.14392865636746161114126WETL
2023-02-08 07:00:17FORECAST2023138-14623.93612.23618.086134.24090625840.043307111.093307114.285.37330711TF-8.064-50.06446394.8468453938453.0045983589410.14487585580391161114126WETL
2023-02-08 03:00:21FORECAST2023138-14624.33211.8418.086134.14031583460.035433091.045433094.335.37543309TF-7.668-49.66846394.7949587503152.9579204566740.15557103354763161114126WETL
2023-02-07 23:00:06FORECAST2023138-14624.31413.85619.085128.692816984960.224409570.974409574.75.67440957TF-7.686-55.68646391.9651334759750.4430971869090.15507390011261161113124.5WETL
2023-02-07 19:00:06FORECAST2023138-14624.20613.8219.013128.653579238160.224409570.964409574.685.64440957TF-7.794-54.79446391.9446081859950.4250767062260.15211308973013161113124.5WETL
2023-02-07 15:00:07FORECAST2023138-14625.50214.03619.769126.9215905104400.754.85.55TF-6.498-49.49846391.0365627511549.6309824921130.19012674488982161113124.5WETL
2023-02-07 11:00:09FORECAST2023138-14626.67214.50420.588132.1039530485300.924.555.47TF-5.328-39.32846393.7417045015652.0148356447240.22902371896601161113124.5WETL
2023-02-07 07:00:13FORECAST2023138-14626.67214.41420.543132.2424276386300.924.555.47TF-5.328-39.32846393.8134995449152.0788532166850.22902371896601161113124.5WETL
2023-02-07 03:00:13FORECAST2023138-14627.21215.42221.317133.0486324322300.894.835.72TF-4.788-41.78846394.230992144752.4518943672550.24837919166284161113124.5WETL
2023-02-06 23:00:04FORECAST2023138-14625.95215.92620.939133.0861097921101.354.595.94TF-6.048-39.04846394.2503789827752.4692492228810.2045827875325161114126WETL
2023-02-06 19:00:08FORECAST2023138-14625.86216.21421.038130.8375902301901.244.285.52TF-6.138-37.13846393.0839595048651.4301580197570.20164051533563161114126WETL
2023-02-06 15:00:06FORECAST2023138-14625.4316.9721.2132.8271255505401.394.575.96TF-6.57-41.5746394.1163701224452.3493445757780.18787332107992161114126WETL
2023-02-06 11:00:07FORECAST2023138-14626.9616.12421.542132.0299966138101.144.615.75TF-5.04-37.0446393.7033498973151.9806519537870.23907104280137161114126WETL
2023-02-06 07:00:13FORECAST2023138-14626.9615.94421.452132.9375935420501.144.75.84TF-5.04-37.0446394.1735414847152.4004820429260.23907104280137161114126WETL
2023-02-06 03:00:13FORECAST2023138-14626.94214.95420.948131.7701006315701.024.485.5TF-5.058-39.05846393.5685078772651.8605618884040.2384286799525161114126WETL
2023-02-05 23:00:06FORECAST2023138-14618.91418.91418.914124.3944674683600.754.134.88TF-13.086-41.08646389.7044578343548.4770785023480.050841505713304161113124.5WETL
2023-02-05 19:00:07FORECAST2023138-14619.07619.07619.076124.7267720699100.754.224.97TF-12.924-40.92446389.8801119083748.6284878525850.052827109694391161113124.5WETL
2023-02-05 15:00:08FORECAST2023138-14620.37220.37220.372121.4737141093700.484.314.79TF-11.628-26.62846388.1541712928447.1505288339860.070994020987876161112123WETL
2023-02-05 11:00:19FORECAST2023138-14618.71618.71618.716121.3138890385500.43.844.24TF-13.284-15.28446388.0690064969547.0781603934710.048495603367913161112123WETL
2023-02-05 07:00:21FORECAST2023138-14618.71618.71618.716121.1516832709500.363.914.27TF-13.284-14.28446387.9825377601947.0047375293820.048495603367913161112123WETL
2023-02-05 03:00:18FORECAST2023138-14625.44825.44825.448123.727072527640.023622060.693622063.864.55362206TF-6.552-7.55246389.3512289502548.1732877430540.18851508052067161113124.5WETL