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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, February 14, 2023

[ Monday, February 13, 2023 | Index | Today | Wednesday, February 15, 2023 ]

DAY 137 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/15/2023 07:00:10 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 22.96°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 9.14°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 16.05°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.132
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -9
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -8

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.80 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.68 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.82 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.50 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 135 in
SWE DAY: 45
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 394.23 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 53.04 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -147

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-02-15 07:00:10OBSERVATION2023137-14722.960049.1416.05002134.540413333330.799999999999951.684.826.5TT-9.03996-8.0399645394.22877692441 53.0397025953040.1318835765622516 1115127.5WETL
2023-02-15 03:00:13OBSERVATION2023137-14722.960049.1416.05002134.540413333330.799999999999951.684.826.5TT-9.03996-8.0399645394.22877692441 53.0397025953040.1318835765622516 1115127.5WETL
2023-02-14 11:00:04FORECAST2023137-14722.9289.96816.448124.116181902450.019685050.899685054.825.71968505TF-9.072-8.07245388.7640351478748.2519077035430.13115926434534161113124.5WETL
2023-02-14 07:00:18FORECAST2023137-14722.7849.87816.331124.437195554010.019685050.899685054.825.71968505TF-9.216-8.21645388.9344898155848.397917166880.12793778063182161113124.5WETL
2023-02-14 03:00:16FORECAST2023137-14722.4429.91416.178124.508145148570.031496080.911496084.825.73149608TF-9.558-8.55845388.9721445088548.4302002272570.12050769317912161113124.5WETL
2023-02-13 23:00:02FORECAST2023137-14722.9469.71616.331121.181000067530.031496081.401496084.826.22149608TT-9.054-11.05445387.1990242394146.9211649825010.13156584339588161114126WETL
2023-02-13 19:00:03FORECAST2023137-147239.46416.232121.249317652110.03937011.40937014.826.2293701TT-9-1145387.2355833049346.9520502463380.13279078100512161114126WETL
2023-02-13 15:00:01FORECAST2023137-14723.2710.88617.078121.141850938460.023622061.393622064.826.21362206TT-8.73-10.7345387.1780713480346.9034682058840.13903276854775161114126WETL
2023-02-13 11:00:05FORECAST2023137-14722.76611.9317.348126.931859092270.043307111.413307114.826.23330711TT-9.234-11.23445390.2544021661449.5357167858910.12753898285932161114126WETL
2023-02-13 07:00:17FORECAST2023137-14722.56812.16417.366126.839413907990.090551231.490551234.826.31055123TT-9.432-11.43245390.20563901949.4934545567640.12320904159828161114126WETL
2023-02-13 03:00:16FORECAST2023137-14722.51411.53417.024126.450006670950.090551231.410551234.826.23055123TT-9.486-10.48645390.0001080653649.3155162665340.12204618476598161114126WETL
2023-02-12 23:00:05FORECAST2023137-14722.4611.8417.15128.574400428380.153543391.413543394.826.23354339TT-9.54-13.5445391.1189063859750.2878788847790.12089103354823161114126WETL
2023-02-12 19:00:06FORECAST2023137-14722.56811.9317.249129.060324373770.181102461.511102464.826.33110246TT-9.432-14.43245391.3739678566850.5108512430310.12320904159828161115127.5WETL
2023-02-12 15:00:07FORECAST2023137-14721.95612.57817.267128.351015067980.165354421.395354424.826.21535442TT-10.044-15.04445391.0015457464150.1854452897020.11047859183858161114126WETL
2023-02-12 11:00:07FORECAST2023137-14722.40612.34417.375127.829196832330.11811031.27811034.826.0981103TT-9.594-14.59445390.7271369319949.946336094610.11974357444256161114126WETL
2023-02-12 07:00:17FORECAST2023137-14722.8212.32617.573127.71971876940.070866181.300866184.826.12086618TT-9.18-13.1845390.669519476749.8962011593390.1287379655569161114126WETL
2023-02-12 03:00:19FORECAST2023137-14722.65812.32617.492127.262813556870.07874021.16874024.825.9887402TF-9.342-12.34245390.4288807640449.6870778598910.12516429527404161114126WETL
2023-02-11 23:00:06FORECAST2023137-14722.38812.05617.222128.748174112740.066929171.156929174.825.97692917TF-9.612-17.61245391.2101563520350.3675933246830.1193627950397161114126WETL
2023-02-11 19:00:06FORECAST2023137-14721.84812.59617.222128.943856724830.066929171.176929174.825.99692917TF-10.152-19.15245391.3128626712450.4573896988650.10833334155133161114126WETL
2023-02-11 15:00:07FORECAST2023137-14722.15411.0316.592128.4349028714201.114.825.93TF-9.846-19.84645391.0456259424850.2239069862170.1144900525729161114126WETL
2023-02-11 11:00:08FORECAST2023137-14721.75810.0415.899128.601567061590.007874021.137874024.825.95787402TF-10.242-20.24245391.1331744608550.3003391654410.10656859095849161114126WETL
2023-02-11 07:00:16FORECAST2023137-14721.95610.63416.295128.348621965920.011811031.141811034.825.96181103TF-10.044-19.04445391.0002881146250.1843481677880.11047859183858161114126WETL
2023-02-11 03:00:14FORECAST2023137-14721.9388.76215.35128.121823799250.019685051.059685054.825.87968505TF-10.062-20.06245390.8810656104650.0803950146080.11011895751648161114126WETL
2023-02-10 23:00:08FORECAST2023137-14721.21811.10216.16130.160571275660.043307110.963307114.715.67330711TF-10.782-23.78245391.9503253820351.0164782634050.096413312850454161113124.5WETL
2023-02-10 19:00:08FORECAST2023137-14721.90210.70616.304130.108862541580.03937010.97937014.715.6893701TF-10.098-23.09845391.9232741373350.9926914015820.10940220196113161113124.5WETL
2023-02-10 15:00:09FORECAST2023137-14721.75811.60616.682130.302944267470.074803190.994803194.715.70480319TF-10.242-23.24245392.0247889623751.081984227630.10656859095849161114126WETL
2023-02-10 11:00:08FORECAST2023137-14721.5612.54217.051131.411658449940.066929171.036929174.715.74692917TF-10.44-24.4445392.6037455564651.5927093172320.10275916288549161114126WETL
2023-02-10 07:00:17FORECAST2023137-14721.70413.20817.456131.088763347410.106299271.036299274.735.76629927TF-10.296-22.29645392.4353020371151.4438584379120.10551972073778161114126WETL
2023-02-10 03:00:21FORECAST2023137-14722.85612.41617.636131.490717250770.062992161.062992164.835.89299216TF-9.144-21.14445392.6449668257851.6291683128280.12954160570717161114126WETL
2023-02-09 23:00:06FORECAST2023137-14722.58613.78418.185135.981596284470.098425251.028425254.925.94842525TF-9.414-27.41445394.9729738236653.7090554697640.12359837517572161114126WETL
2023-02-09 19:00:09FORECAST2023137-14722.60413.7318.167136.155317873310.098425251.028425254.965.98842525TF-9.396-27.39645395.0624961969453.7898597495160.12398856686513161114126WETL
2023-02-09 15:00:08FORECAST2023137-14721.90214.0917.996135.802247741740.062992161.062992164.815.87299216TF-10.098-27.09845394.8805103118853.6256608897590.10940220196113161114126WETL
2023-02-09 11:00:10FORECAST2023137-14722.35213.13617.744136.499146071560.047244121.107244124.855.95724412TF-9.648-28.64845395.2395616517853.9498626591650.11860379353892161114126WETL
2023-02-09 07:00:12FORECAST2023137-14722.06412.77617.42136.563338308090.047244121.127244124.815.93724412TF-9.936-31.93645395.2726023941553.9797461246730.11265402969001161114126WETL
2023-02-09 03:00:11FORECAST2023137-14721.8313.5517.69136.211017613170.066929171.086929174.825.90692917TF-10.17-32.1745395.091191077453.8157731866530.10797872488311161114126WETL
2023-02-08 23:00:06FORECAST2023137-14719.59813.60416.601132.19618963630.098425251.268425254.635.89842525TF-12.402-43.40245393.0124339603551.9547462492470.070216147587719161114126WETL
2023-02-08 19:00:07FORECAST2023137-14719.59814.5417.069132.000173199260.102362261.232362264.675.90236226TF-12.402-41.40245392.9103987817851.8642406909830.070216147587719161114126WETL
2023-02-08 15:00:06FORECAST2023137-14719.50813.4616.484135.21503871380.19685051.74685054.676.4168505TT-12.492-47.49245394.5774785924353.3528090434680.068939162300886161115127.5WETL
2023-02-08 11:00:08FORECAST2023137-14720.22814.57617.402134.009858849850.326771831.286771834.675.95677183TF-11.772-46.77245393.9541228542952.7937363970190.079667959563711161114126WETL
2023-02-08 07:00:17FORECAST2023137-14720.4814.64817.564133.775380122020.326771831.266771834.75.96677183TF-11.52-47.5245393.8326214128752.6851086339590.083706412005037161114126WETL
2023-02-08 03:00:20FORECAST2023137-14720.69614.59417.645133.751305035360.31496081.20496084.785.9849608TF-11.304-48.30445393.8201421641752.6739579636690.087288306578447161114126WETL
2023-02-07 23:00:06FORECAST2023137-14721.18214.97218.077126.650717908070.188976480.908976485.186.08897648TF-10.818-53.81845390.1060697781249.4072137976930.095762404117691161113124.5WETL
2023-02-07 19:00:06FORECAST2023137-14721.09215.18818.14126.67291774380.188976480.898976485.166.05897648TF-10.908-52.90845390.1177864452249.4173582727690.094149239918079161113124.5WETL
2023-02-07 15:00:06FORECAST2023137-14722.5516.21419.382126.921590510440.15748040.93748045.256.1874804TF-9.45-49.4545390.2489862419549.5310220289170.12282056565819161113124.5WETL
2023-02-07 11:00:09FORECAST2023137-14723.50417.25820.381132.103953048530.299212761.069212765.046.10921276TF-8.496-40.49645392.964427086951.9121542256330.14460117969983161114126WETL
2023-02-07 07:00:13FORECAST2023137-14723.50417.27620.39132.242427638630.299212761.069212765.046.10921276TF-8.496-40.49645393.0364954704451.9761003115910.14460117969983161114126WETL
2023-02-07 03:00:13FORECAST2023137-14723.46817.58220.525133.048632432230.19685051.04685055.316.3568505TT-8.532-42.53245393.4555775602252.3487265172220.14373488598286161114126WETL
2023-02-06 23:00:04FORECAST2023137-14723.68418.46421.074133.086109792110.47244121.35244125.236.5824412TT-8.316-39.31645393.4750382084352.3660621354610.14898518451698161114126WETL
2023-02-06 19:00:07FORECAST2023137-14723.75619.65221.704130.837590230190.326771831.236771834.926.15677183TT-8.244-37.24445392.3041779042751.3281332742310.15076332668323161114126WETL
2023-02-06 15:00:05FORECAST2023137-14723.66619.25621.461132.827125550540.283464721.563464725.046.60346472TT-8.334-41.33445393.3405191456552.2462905206760.14854284111594161115127.5WETL
2023-02-06 11:00:07FORECAST2023137-14724.5317.56421.047132.029996613810.122047311.422047314.976.39204731TT-7.47-38.4745392.9259264578851.8780087397120.17298451192804161114126WETL
2023-02-06 07:00:13FORECAST2023137-14724.5317.58221.056132.937593542050.122047311.422047315.066.48204731TT-7.47-38.4745393.3979081724152.2973712169170.17298451192804161114126WETL
2023-02-06 03:00:13FORECAST2023137-14724.18819.27421.731131.770100631570.35433091.06433095.086.1443309TF-7.812-39.81245392.7905710633651.7580530761520.16391331455918161114126WETL
2023-02-05 23:00:06FORECAST2023137-14724.18819.47221.83124.394467468360.322834820.842834824.685.52283482TF-7.812-33.81245388.9118096964848.3784774593480.16391331455918161113124.5WETL
2023-02-05 19:00:07FORECAST2023137-14724.2619.5821.92124.726772069910.318897810.838897814.775.60889781TF-7.74-33.7445389.0881325258148.5297068206530.16579698806082161113124.5WETL
2023-02-05 15:00:08FORECAST2023137-14726.8717.49222.181121.473714109370.066929170.636929174.795.42692917TF-5.13-21.1345387.3556208588547.0535259468650.243292764406161113124.5WETL
2023-02-05 11:00:17FORECAST2023137-14728.90419.14824.026121.313889038550.129921330.399921334.484.87992133TF-3.096-8.09645387.2701318210746.9812457996850.31512350597204162112124WETL
2023-02-05 07:00:21FORECAST2023137-14728.90419.14824.026121.151683270950.106299270.356299274.554.90629927TF-3.096-7.09645387.1833338780146.9079126337790.31512350597204162112124WETL
2023-02-05 03:00:18FORECAST2023137-14730.75824.78227.77123.476172915290.535433360.665433364.55.16543336TF-1.242-7.24245388.4237824630447.9610821278190.38744021119479162113126WETL
2023-02-04 23:00:09FORECAST2023137-14726.70826.70826.708115.5889191580700.064.254.31TF-5.292-10.29245384.184896213144.4075169101290.23797695407684161111121.5WETL
2023-02-04 19:00:07FORECAST2023137-14726.6926.6926.69116.4540960170300.064.424.48TF-5.31-10.3145384.65403001244.7945373443560.23739025805429161111121.5WETL
2023-02-04 15:00:08FORECAST2023137-14727.527.527.5116.52557540108004.474.47TF-4.5-5.545384.6927429316744.8265432227310.26456056836157162111122WETL
2023-02-04 11:00:07FORECAST2023137-14727.06827.06827.068117.68975825751004.294.29TF-4.932-16.93245385.3222707815445.3484848995150.24987592069709162111122WETL
2023-02-04 07:00:16FORECAST2023137-14727.06827.06827.068117.48950723423004.254.25TF-4.932-14.93245385.2141182528345.2586169331930.24987592069709162111122WETL
2023-02-04 03:00:21FORECAST2023137-14728.90428.90428.904117.85814435593004.334.33TF-3.096-17.09645385.4131709825745.4240811423390.31512350597204162111122WETL