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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, February 13, 2023

[ Sunday, February 12, 2023 | Index | Today | Tuesday, February 14, 2023 ]

DAY 136 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/14/2023 07:00:16 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.53°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 16.04°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 23.78°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.380
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 0

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.76 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.88 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.30 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.18 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 124 in
SWE DAY: 44
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 388.08 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 48.25 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -148

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-02-14 07:00:16OBSERVATION2023136-14831.5300216.0399423.78498124.325538750.759999999999990.879999999999996.37.18TT-0.46998-0.4699844388.07941181396 48.2481819515530.3804800125027216 2113126WETL
2023-02-14 03:00:15OBSERVATION2023136-14831.5300216.0399423.78498124.325538750.759999999999990.879999999999996.37.18TT-0.46998-0.4699844388.07941181396 48.2481819515530.3804800125027216 2113126WETL
2023-02-13 11:00:01FORECAST2023136-14829.22815.18822.208126.672863448281.248032171.368032176.37.66803217TT-2.772-2.77244389.3266831796149.3171257751840.29021280916755162114128WETL
2023-02-13 07:00:16FORECAST2023136-14829.17415.1722.172126.324866091791.275591241.395591246.37.69559124TT-2.826-2.82644389.1422409504249.1583414787190.28821953765396162114128WETL
2023-02-13 03:00:15FORECAST2023136-14829.64216.01622.829125.907927306161.204725061.324725066.37.62472506TT-2.358-2.35844388.921044260148.9682425685380.30570454601193162114128WETL
2023-02-12 23:00:01FORECAST2023136-14829.7515.99822.874127.59868886091.177165991.257165996.37.55716599TT-2.25-5.2544389.8165872173849.7400854251680.30980527198522162114128WETL
2023-02-12 19:00:03FORECAST2023136-14829.44415.76422.604127.922065068291.251969181.331969186.37.63196918TT-2.556-5.55644389.9874316751549.8879976105630.29824969596898162114128WETL
2023-02-12 15:00:04FORECAST2023136-14829.08415.7122.397127.318928461491.149606921.229606926.37.52960692TT-2.916-5.91644389.6686723834749.6121978228740.2849118287439162114128WETL
2023-02-12 11:00:06FORECAST2023136-14829.44415.83622.64127.10668985751.082677751.162677756.37.46267775TT-2.556-5.55644389.5563875158449.5152229299850.29824969596898162114128WETL
2023-02-12 07:00:17FORECAST2023136-14830.05615.9823.018127.306181457641.137795891.227795896.37.52779589TT-1.944-4.94444389.6619302874749.6063724043110.32155174245091162114128WETL
2023-02-12 03:00:19FORECAST2023136-14830.16416.50223.333126.796006407191.011811571.091811576.37.39181157TT-1.836-3.83644389.3919111898549.3733392661370.32574130598932162114128WETL
2023-02-11 23:00:05FORECAST2023136-14829.87616.57423.225128.268640279681.02362261.09362266.37.3936226TT-2.124-9.12444390.1703767894450.046623708190.31461948350626162114128WETL
2023-02-11 19:00:05FORECAST2023136-14829.51614.39621.956128.448279206291.027559611.107559616.37.40755961TT-2.484-10.48444390.2651386380950.1288854922660.3009509810009162114128WETL
2023-02-11 15:00:06FORECAST2023136-14829.33613.98221.659128.434902871421.043307651.113307656.37.41330765TT-2.664-10.66444390.2580839389350.1227591054840.29421858788634162114128WETL
2023-02-11 11:00:07FORECAST2023136-14829.42614.25221.839128.535595932831.074803731.134803736.37.43480373TT-2.574-10.57444390.3111837227450.168880599050.29757610207555162114128WETL
2023-02-11 07:00:15FORECAST2023136-14829.46214.12621.794128.279193230821.082677751.132677756.37.43267775TT-2.538-9.53844390.1759448026550.0514554173560.29892398264252162114128WETL
2023-02-11 03:00:14FORECAST2023136-14829.28214.82822.055127.967971311240.976378481.036378486.37.33637848TT-2.718-10.71844390.011673253449.909002613940.29221250834316162114128WETL
2023-02-10 23:00:08FORECAST2023136-14829.94816.01622.982129.862431457130.881890240.921890246.197.11189024TT-2.052-14.05244391.0096141381250.7774592150890.31738473690878162113126WETL
2023-02-10 19:00:08FORECAST2023136-14829.76816.59223.18129.818419837690.885827250.935827256.197.12582725TT-2.232-14.23244390.9864846697850.7572476177250.31049105005593162113126WETL
2023-02-10 15:00:09FORECAST2023136-14829.94816.26823.108129.763829813010.881890240.921890246.197.11189024TT-2.052-14.05244390.9577923292750.7321804278860.31738473690878162113126WETL
2023-02-10 11:00:08FORECAST2023136-14829.96616.48423.225130.926371472080.94488240.97488246.197.1648824TT-2.034-15.03444391.5679615161951.2665723860330.31807765248807162113126WETL
2023-02-10 07:00:16FORECAST2023136-14830.72217.04223.882130.342403861540.921260340.931260346.217.14126034TT-1.278-13.27844391.2616867092150.9979887845990.34772931120301162113126WETL
2023-02-10 03:00:20FORECAST2023136-14830.61416.723.657131.043477352580.968504460.998504466.317.30850446TT-1.386-13.38644391.629325634851.3204686644310.34343054177574162114128WETL
2023-02-09 23:00:06FORECAST2023136-14830.217.74423.972135.247710467690.86614220.92614226.47.3261422TT-1.8-18.844393.8203196723653.2632965713410.32714276262018162113126WETL
2023-02-09 19:00:08FORECAST2023136-14829.71417.70823.711135.428504376370.858268180.928268186.447.36826818TT-2.286-19.28644393.9140149197653.3471858934750.30843569988557162113126WETL
2023-02-09 15:00:07FORECAST2023136-14829.9317.58223.756135.355602996920.933071371.003071376.297.29307137TT-2.07-18.0744393.8762394387953.3133558953950.31669246020658162114128WETL
2023-02-09 11:00:09FORECAST2023136-14829.73217.22223.477136.126370427670.893701271.063701276.337.39370127TT-2.268-20.26844394.2752760736453.6712622812740.30912015461414162114128WETL
2023-02-09 07:00:12FORECAST2023136-14829.42616.71823.072136.182750160250.893701271.083701276.297.37370127TT-2.574-22.57444394.3044339668253.697462217980.29757610207555162114128WETL
2023-02-09 03:00:11FORECAST2023136-14828.63416.722.667135.710632195280.724409841.024409846.37.32440984TT-3.366-23.36644394.0601398640953.4781507039150.26865032400801162114128WETL
2023-02-08 23:00:06FORECAST2023136-14829.08415.27822.181131.343559268380.870079211.170079216.117.28007921TT-2.916-31.91644391.786486904251.4586316632520.2849118287439162114128WETL
2023-02-08 19:00:07FORECAST2023136-14830.25415.40422.829131.073456605820.783464991.133464996.157.28346499TT-1.746-29.74644391.6450319923851.3342681057390.32924951674711162114128WETL
2023-02-08 15:00:06FORECAST2023136-14828.27417.0622.667133.546501882521.14173291.55173296.157.7017329TT-3.726-35.72644392.9365691288152.4753042688710.255985274671231621151210WETL
2023-02-08 11:00:07FORECAST2023136-14828.63419.07623.855131.552124613280.732283860.962283866.157.11228386TT-3.366-36.36644391.8956478526351.5547051017120.26865032400801162113126WETL
2023-02-08 07:00:17FORECAST2023136-14828.68820.06624.377131.357107183780.724409840.944409846.187.12440984TT-3.312-37.31244391.793579499651.4648712162450.27057684863525162113126WETL
2023-02-08 03:00:20FORECAST2023136-14828.74218.62623.684131.397140849980.700787780.910787786.247.15078778TT-3.258-38.25844391.81453647151.4833098357470.272510241034162113126WETL
2023-02-07 23:00:05FORECAST2023136-14826.2421.07423.657124.978093110270.555118410.715118416.667.37511841TT-5.76-43.7644388.4268988793948.5448531346810.19066865689947161113124.5WETL
2023-02-07 19:00:06FORECAST2023136-14826.2421.03823.639124.992238756670.55118140.71118146.647.3511814TT-5.76-42.7644388.4344251005348.5512884034760.19066865689947161113124.5WETL
2023-02-07 15:00:06FORECAST2023136-14826.40221.52423.963125.613962099520.586614490.836614496.677.50661449TT-5.598-40.59844388.7649473343348.8343053600750.19546364205371161113124.5WETL
2023-02-07 11:00:09FORECAST2023136-14830.03820.5725.304129.759551014760.622047580.872047586.427.29204758TT-1.962-32.96244390.955543238650.7302157573740.32085566298665162113126WETL
2023-02-07 07:00:13FORECAST2023136-14829.91220.55225.232129.899399819090.622047580.872047586.427.29204758TT-2.088-33.08844391.0290401586850.7944376284460.3160008243992162113126WETL
2023-02-07 03:00:13FORECAST2023136-14829.89420.2125.052131.472008295590.692913760.942913766.77.64291376TT-2.106-35.10644391.8537226392751.5177958734880.31530983149767162113126WETL
2023-02-06 23:00:04FORECAST2023136-14831.24421.57826.411128.900861494460.877953230.897953236.697.58795323TT-0.756-31.75644390.5036900234550.3362620607870.36877470013421162113126WETL
2023-02-06 19:00:07FORECAST2023136-14831.40621.68626.546127.932568223090.909449310.909449316.47.30944931TT-0.594-29.59444389.992978295449.8928033023010.37539036288075162113126WETL
2023-02-06 15:00:05FORECAST2023136-14830.81221.97426.393130.341810079521.106299811.316299816.487.79629981TT-1.188-34.18844391.2613750557750.997715838970.35132665470796162114128WETL
2023-02-06 11:00:07FORECAST2023136-14830.3822.76626.573131.032536209231.015748581.475748586.277.74574858TT-1.62-31.6244391.6235931891251.3154326549430.33939000070274162114128WETL
2023-02-06 07:00:12FORECAST2023136-14830.39822.76626.582131.943040133851.019685591.479685596.367.83968559TT-1.602-31.60244392.1000932946351.7348783460570.34010937674895162114128WETL
2023-02-06 03:00:13FORECAST2023136-14830.48822.98226.735128.656025812050.665354690.895354696.377.26535469TT-1.512-32.51244390.3746737477350.2240541020570.34371494328704162113126WETL
2023-02-05 23:00:06FORECAST2023136-14831.7321.43426.582120.990225165990.425197080.525197086.156.67519708TT-0.27-27.2744386.2943247891746.7378373365850.3947958551441162113126WETL
2023-02-05 19:00:07FORECAST2023136-14831.8221.61426.717121.325428529590.429134090.529134096.246.76913409TT-0.18-27.1844386.4744126859746.8891737348480.39858099118421162113126WETL
2023-02-05 15:00:07FORECAST2023136-14836.39220.80428.598120.760679908820.413386050.593386056.256.84338605TT4.392-16.60844386.1709131944146.6342620383680.59552700357121163113127.5WETL
2023-02-05 11:00:16FORECAST2023136-14835.85222.0128.931120.053957629240.267716680.267716685.966.22771668TF3.852-6.14844385.7905023599346.3156766240820.57255062355871163112125WETL
2023-02-05 07:00:20FORECAST2023136-14835.88822.02828.958120.133289241730.248031630.248031636.036.27803163TF3.888-5.11244385.8332386047846.3514160523810.57409097839239163112125WETL
2023-02-05 03:00:18FORECAST2023136-14834.30426.72630.515118.702448561990.125984320.125984325.986.10598432TF2.304-6.69644385.0611146534645.7076971553740.50557864430932163112125WETL
2023-02-04 23:00:09FORECAST2023136-14834.93427.10431.019115.588919158070.062992160.062992165.735.79299216TF2.934-6.06644383.3712338393144.3134665557830.53296185295102163111122.5WETL
2023-02-04 19:00:07FORECAST2023136-14835.0627.08631.073116.454096017030.062992160.062992165.95.96299216TF3.06-5.9444383.8421537380944.6999910267990.53842396944158163111122.5WETL
2023-02-04 15:00:08FORECAST2023136-14837.11227.78832.45116.52557540108005.955.95TF5.112-1.88844383.8810140467144.7319560473420.62564424947713163111122.5WETL
2023-02-04 11:00:06FORECAST2023136-14836.39225.77231.082117.6897582575100.075.75.77TF4.392-12.60844384.5129386533645.2532347970.59552700357121163111122.5WETL
2023-02-04 07:00:15FORECAST2023136-14836.39225.77231.082117.4895072342300.075.665.73TF4.392-10.60844384.4043743631945.1634805226140.59552700357121163111122.5WETL
2023-02-04 03:00:21FORECAST2023136-14835.58226.36630.974117.8581443559300.075.745.81TF3.582-15.41844384.6041849322945.3287355476430.56096428147869163111122.5WETL
2023-02-03 23:00:07FORECAST2023136-14832.7232.7232.72120.0630878295700.16.086.18TF0.72-38.2844385.795421272546.3197895484880.43690096148692162112124WETL
2023-02-03 19:00:08FORECAST2023136-14832.30632.30632.306118.3953609398700.025.95.92TF0.306-34.69444384.8950350151345.5697865945820.41917722864236162111122WETL
2023-02-03 15:00:07FORECAST2023136-14825.66425.66425.664119.0491848042300.235.685.91TF-6.336-51.33644385.248481479945.863517667250.17650711642074161112123WETL
2023-02-03 11:00:09FORECAST2023136-14823.48623.48623.486119.0622679193700.25.265.46TF-8.514-59.51444385.2555480090145.8693992744730.12168750575171161112123WETL
2023-02-03 07:00:19FORECAST2023136-14823.23423.23423.234118.2875010137300.185.155.33TF-8.766-57.76644384.8366712832445.5213681445360.11621512862375161112123WETL
2023-02-03 03:00:19FORECAST2023136-14823.68423.68423.684119.6253023330300.025.545.56TF-8.316-56.31644385.5594350682946.1226639873960.12611204811878161111121.5WETL