Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, February 11, 2023

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DAY 134 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/12/2023 07:00:14 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.27°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 20.48°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.37°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.551 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 4 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 10 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.35 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.95 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.30 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 122 in SWE DAY: 42 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 385.22 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 46.99 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -150 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 5.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-02-12 07:00:14	OBSERVATION	2023	134	-150	36.26996	20.48	28.37498	121.98958541667	0	0.35	5.95	6.3	T	F	4.26996	10.26996	42	385.22054096819	46.992894086693	0.55145278135717	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-02-12 03:00:16	OBSERVATION	2023	134	-150	36.26996	20.48	28.37498	121.98958541667	0	0.35	5.95	6.3	T	F	4.26996	10.26996	42	385.22054096819	46.992894086693	0.55145278135717	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-02-11 11:00:04	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	31.496	18.698	25.097	123	0	0.35	5.95	6.3	T	F	-0.504	5.496	42	385.76567298564	47.449177777234	0.31819986652144	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-02-11 07:00:14	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	31.622	18.662	25.142	122.76058125	0	0.35	5.95	6.3	T	F	-0.378	5.622	42	385.6366298566	47.340976832487	0.32389036892535	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-02-11 03:00:13	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	31.64	18.032	24.836	122.76058125	0	0.35	5.95	6.3	T	F	-0.36	5.64	42	385.6366298566	47.340976832487	0.32470670649749	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-02-10 23:00:03	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	31.424	18.32	24.872	125	0	0.24	5.95	6.19	T	F	-0.576	2.424	42	386.84058278436	48.355072848044	0.31496718606855	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-02-10 19:00:03	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	31.118	17.456	24.287	125	0	0.24	5.95	6.19	T	F	-0.882	2.118	42	386.84058278436	48.355072848044	0.3013880322084	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-02-10 15:00:04	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	31.01	17.096	24.053	125	0	0.24	5.95	6.19	T	F	-0.99	2.01	42	386.84058278436	48.355072848044	0.29665904284505	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-02-10 11:00:07	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	30.344	18.662	24.503	125.87435501437	0	0.24	5.95	6.19	T	F	-1.656	1.344	42	387.30879645682	48.752244945396	0.26827626116144	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-02-10 07:00:15	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	30.884	18.356	24.62	125.59908501206	0	0.26	5.95	6.21	T	F	-1.116	1.884	42	387.16150258957	48.627130477144	0.29118520866189	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-02-10 03:00:18	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	31.208	18.752	24.98	125.93298528934	0	0.36	5.95	6.31	T	F	-0.792	1.208	42	387.34015555298	48.778902111225	0.30535455757398	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-02-09 23:00:05	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	30.362	18.608	24.485	130.18600359859	0	0.45	5.95	6.4	T	F	-1.638	-2.638	42	389.60252153835	50.720795271012	0.26902505974039	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-02-09 19:00:07	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	30.11	18.482	24.296	130.35586041929	0	0.49	5.95	6.44	T	F	-1.89	-2.89	42	389.6923692537	50.798684092898	0.25863815088075	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-02-09 15:00:06	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	30.524	18.95	24.737	129.79003934609	0	0.34	5.95	6.29	T	F	-1.476	-2.476	42	389.39292113069	50.539322554641	0.27581103635179	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-02-09 11:00:08	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	29.588	17.744	23.666	130.2906657448	0	0.38	5.95	6.33	T	F	-2.412	-4.412	42	389.65788836592	50.76878568791	0.23780108713801	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-02-09 07:00:12	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	29.228	17.42	23.324	130.15118231044	0	0.34	5.95	6.29	T	F	-2.772	-4.772	42	389.58409762984	50.70483091587	0.22398422873087	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-02-09 03:00:10	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	29.192	17.654	23.423	130.17304347412	0	0.35	5.95	6.3	T	F	-2.808	-4.808	42	389.59566453992	50.714853377485	0.22262804016235	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-02-08 23:00:05	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	28.238	17.888	23.063	124.40055074106	0	0.37	5.74	6.11	T	F	-3.762	-12.762	42	386.51897870457	48.08317382272	0.18842730522502	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-02-08 19:00:06	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	27.536	18.464	23	124.49843221975	0	0.41	5.74	6.15	T	F	-4.464	-12.464	42	386.57152550104	48.127548865675	0.16545304162946	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-02-08 15:00:05	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	26.078	19.292	22.685	124.62518054616	0	0.41	5.74	6.15	T	F	-5.922	-14.922	42	386.63954979793	48.185023699853	0.12377134218725	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-02-08 11:00:07	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	26.024	19.184	22.604	125.89007618057	0	0.41	5.74	6.15	T	F	-5.976	-13.976	42	387.31720556677	48.759392514848	0.12238284936349	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-02-08 07:00:16	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	25.646	19.508	22.577	125.87909158964	0	0.44	5.74	6.18	T	F	-6.354	-15.354	42	387.31133004354	48.754398388258	0.11296826629319	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-02-08 03:00:19	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	25.106	19.382	22.244	126.2942702754	0.02362206	0.45362206	5.81	6.26362206	T	F	-6.894	-16.894	42	387.53329008372	48.943234078546	0.10043066925793	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-02-07 23:00:05	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	26.546	19.688	23.117	120.63604396444	0	0.52	6.14	6.66	T	T	-5.454	-19.454	42	384.48809163281	46.383122326019	0.13626603187532	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-02-07 19:00:06	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	26.528	19.886	23.207	120.63702256298	0	0.49	6.15	6.64	T	T	-5.472	-18.472	42	384.48862209739	46.383562579173	0.13577010125698	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-02-07 15:00:05	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	27.392	20.876	24.134	120.97836988158	0.05905515	0.62905515	6.1	6.72905515	T	T	-4.608	-16.608	42	384.67357430705	46.537181956189	0.16097375388261	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-02-07 11:00:08	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	27.986	20.966	24.476	125.41372478249	0.09842525	0.43842525	6.08	6.51842525	T	T	-4.014	-14.014	42	387.06226038695	48.542919797856	0.179963564619	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-02-07 07:00:12	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	27.986	20.84	24.413	125.55413524347	0.09842525	0.43842525	6.08	6.51842525	T	T	-4.014	-14.014	42	387.1374406934	48.60670658663	0.179963564619	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-02-07 03:00:12	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	26.672	20.858	23.765	126.62378514206	0.09055123	0.52055123	6.27	6.79055123	T	T	-5.328	-16.328	42	387.70928657601	49.093217400983	0.13977213976964	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-02-06 23:00:04	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	29.498	20.804	25.151	123.18458212327	0.01574804	0.54574804	6.16	6.70574804	T	T	-2.502	-14.502	42	385.86510643413	47.532631892038	0.23430375141569	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-02-06 19:00:07	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	29.588	20.786	25.187	121.94711741975	0	0.42	5.98	6.4	T	F	-2.412	-13.412	42	385.19759827146	46.973736746216	0.23780108713801	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-02-06 15:00:05	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	29.246	21.974	25.61	122.15875021721	0.03543309	0.43543309	6.08	6.51543309	T	T	-2.754	-16.754	42	385.31190514896	47.069220776808	0.22466407618764	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-02-06 11:00:06	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	28.292	23.306	25.799	123.14292214628	0.17716545	0.20716545	6.24	6.44716545	T	F	-3.708	-13.708	42	385.84266849028	47.513793686611	0.19319020500539	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-02-06 07:00:11	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	28.508	23.252	25.88	124.02732370493	0.17716545	0.21716545	6.32	6.53716545	T	F	-3.492	-14.492	42	386.31849518607	47.914049055645	0.20080238380011	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-02-06 03:00:12	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	28.724	23.144	25.934	124.15567305953	0.19291349	0.39291349	6.17	6.56291349	T	T	-3.276	-14.276	42	386.38746107171	47.97219529112	0.20859141477451	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-02-05 23:00:05	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	31.01	22.172	26.591	117.54036455602	0.01181103	0.10181103	6.06	6.16181103	T	F	-0.99	-14.99	42	382.80341365999	44.994852794882	0.30119527468114	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-02-05 19:00:06	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	30.902	22.082	26.492	117.83098293582	0.01181103	0.11181103	6.14	6.25181103	T	F	-1.098	-15.098	42	382.96213306619	45.124804566387	0.29643497155128	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-02-05 15:00:07	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	33.152	25.538	29.345	117.87407434544	0.01968505	0.17968505	6.09	6.26968505	T	F	1.152	-11.848	42	382.98565719698	45.144079829672	0.40170115099253	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-02-05 11:00:13	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	38.138	27.518	32.828	118.66164220838	0	0.2	5.76	5.96	T	F	6.138	-0.862	42	383.4151469327	45.496670982603	0.64959518512109	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-02-05 07:00:19	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	38.138	27.518	32.828	118.87595162967	0	0.19	5.84	6.03	T	F	6.138	0.138	42	383.53186911802	45.592715921712	0.64959518512109	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-02-05 03:00:17	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	37.796	28.202	32.999	118.58193833628	0	0.13	5.85	5.98	T	F	5.796	-0.204	42	383.37172054288	45.460961725288	0.63337160020734	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-02-04 23:00:09	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	38.462	31.01	34.736	115.65197570044	0	0	5.73	5.73	T	F	6.462	1.462	42	381.76922295977	44.15236489692	0.66471781952495	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2023-02-04 19:00:06	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	38.516	30.992	34.754	116.52276796032	0	0	5.9	5.9	T	F	6.516	0.516	42	382.24673540088	44.540447652707	0.66721332851312	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2023-02-04 15:00:07	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	39.776	30.146	34.961	117.23100500108	0	0	5.95	5.95	T	F	7.776	2.776	42	382.6343300901	44.856607064376	0.72315810557112	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-02-04 11:00:06	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	37.958	28.544	33.251	118.35021905751	0.07480319	0.25480319	5.52	5.77480319	T	F	5.958	-8.042	42	383.2454191191	45.357179305534	0.64108825069598	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-02-04 07:00:14	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	37.958	28.526	33.242	118.14996803423	0.07480319	0.25480319	5.48	5.73480319	T	F	5.958	-6.042	42	383.13620995685	45.267530959157	0.64108825069598	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-02-04 03:00:21	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	37.382	28.922	33.152	118.45858115593	0.07480319	0.25480319	5.56	5.81480319	T	F	5.382	-9.618	42	383.30449245794	45.40570632726	0.61341163869112	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-02-03 23:00:06	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	34.754	28.094	31.424	120.42844702957	0.09842525	0.38842525	5.79	6.17842525	T	F	2.754	-28.246	42	384.37553066751	46.289748234457	0.48185116161997	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-02-03 19:00:08	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	34.772	30.398	32.585	118.72618173987	0.02362206	0.12362206	5.8	5.92362206	T	F	2.772	-24.228	42	383.45030464081	45.525590556995	0.48276217496735	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-02-03 15:00:06	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	30.848	24.458	27.653	118.82244095727	0.20472452	0.35472452	5.53	5.88472452	T	F	-1.152	-31.152	42	383.5027308415	45.568730592365	0.29406781084547	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-02-03 11:00:08	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	29.264	22.028	25.646	118.76955352555	0.16535442	0.18535442	5.24	5.42535442	T	F	-2.736	-33.736	42	383.47392804777	45.545027222922	0.22882470556405	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-02-03 07:00:19	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	29.282	22.028	25.655	118.01902675575	0.14566937	0.14566937	5.15	5.29566937	T	F	-2.718	-31.718	42	383.0647696064	45.208931293362	0.22951756423213	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-02-03 03:00:19	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	29.39	22.19	25.79	119.63327273303	0.02362206	0.26362206	5.3	5.56362206	T	F	-2.61	-31.61	42	383.94383036146	45.932456971796	0.23369926900046	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-02-02 23:00:06	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	30.542	23	26.771	122.23887045414	0.02362206	0.44362206	4.97	5.41362206	T	F	-1.458	-35.458	42	385.35516357281	47.105379918811	0.28082173690255	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-02-02 19:00:09	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	29.768	23.018	26.393	121.95004031225	0.02362206	0.44362206	4.94	5.38362206	T	F	-2.232	-34.232	42	385.19917739948	46.975055212112	0.24866206335057	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-02-02 15:00:08	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	32.09	23.09	27.59	126.75284414741	0	0.7	5.54	6.24	T	F	0.090000000000003	-29.91	42	387.77817787496	49.151986943952	0.35055921884385	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-02-02 11:00:07	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	33.35	22.946	28.148	131.21943122757	0	0.82	6.23	7.05	T	T	1.35	-26.65	42	390.1485659052	51.195072912331	0.41145560114463	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-02-02 07:00:17	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	33.224	22.946	28.085	130.33202060685	0	0.77	6.08	6.85	T	T	1.224	-21.776	42	389.67976124958	50.787750673253	0.40524148687694	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-02-02 03:00:16	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	31.514	18.158	24.836	127.53887317545	0.20472452	0.78472452	5.35	6.13472452	T	F	-0.486	-30.486	42	388.19727047678	49.510242446394	0.32385006583729	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-02-01 23:00:06	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	21.956	21.956	21.956	126.63905237726	0.04724412	0.69724412	4.8	5.49724412	T	F	-10.044	-38.044	42	387.71743735685	49.100168857011	0.047236824350423	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-02-01 19:00:06	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	23.216	23.216	23.216	126.02706261121	0.05118113	0.64118113	4.73	5.37118113	T	F	-8.784	-38.784	42	387.39046416385	48.821682282162	0.065300951613296	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-02-01 15:00:07	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	24.116	24.116	24.116	125.75399758146	0.02362206	0.03362206	5.52	5.55362206	T	F	-7.884	-33.884	42	387.24440722488	48.69753224959	0.081183659878218	16	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2023-02-01 11:00:09	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	25.79	25.79	25.79	138.29578815883	0	0	7.83	7.83	T	T	-6.21	-31.21	42	393.84932087192	54.467702245801	0.11816750490217	16	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2023-02-01 07:00:17	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	25.79	25.79	25.79	138.73244347237	0	0	7.89	7.89	T	T	-6.21	-35.21	42	394.07550894135	54.671058268051	0.11816750490217	16	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2023-02-01 03:00:15	FORECAST	2023	134	-150	21.902	21.902	21.902	141.42016213845	0	0.89	7.34	8.23	T	T	-10.098	-42.098	42	395.46224022192	55.926334131818	0.046562406002533	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L