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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, February 10, 2023

[ Thursday, February 9, 2023 | Index | Today | Saturday, February 11, 2023 ]

DAY 133 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/11/2023 07:00:13 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.68°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.88°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.78°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.364
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 3

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.35 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.84 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.56 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.40 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 123 in
SWE DAY: 41
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 384.83 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 47.24 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -151

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-02-11 07:00:13OBSERVATION2023133-15131.6799623.8800227.77999122.760581250.349999999999910.839999999999915.566.3999999999999TT-0.320042.6799641384.82849456546 47.2417696744180.3640662348136416 2113126WETL
2023-02-11 03:00:12OBSERVATION2023133-15131.6799623.8800227.77999122.760581250.349999999999910.839999999999915.566.3999999999999TT-0.320042.6799641384.82849456546 47.2417696744180.3640662348136416 2113126WETL
2023-02-10 11:00:04FORECAST2023133-15128.63420.28224.458125.874355014370.240157610.730157615.566.29015761TF-3.366-0.36641386.5070274871148.6513227934630.23480849663922161113124.5WETL
2023-02-10 07:00:14FORECAST2023133-15128.5821.61425.097125.599085012060.259842660.749842665.566.30984266TF-3.42-0.4241386.3591728383548.5263585945130.23276838698552161113124.5WETL
2023-02-10 03:00:17FORECAST2023133-15128.45421.39824.926125.932985289340.358267910.848267915.566.40826791TT-3.546-0.54641386.5385059745448.6779479866560.22804659186266161113124.5WETL
2023-02-09 23:00:02FORECAST2023133-15129.7521.7425.745130.186003598590.311023790.941023795.566.50102379TT-2.25-4.2541388.8094853056450.6175530531670.27909997600601162113126WETL
2023-02-09 19:00:04FORECAST2023133-15129.7521.84825.799130.355860419290.350393890.980393895.566.54039389TT-2.25-4.2541388.8996750918350.6953517633790.27909997600601162113126WETL
2023-02-09 15:00:03FORECAST2023133-15129.80422.69426.249129.790039346090.200787510.830787515.566.39078751TT-2.196-4.19641388.599086901250.4362907787610.2813417079346162113126WETL
2023-02-09 11:00:07FORECAST2023133-15129.0321.54225.286130.29066574480.240157610.870157615.566.43015761TT-2.97-4.9741388.8650629274150.6654879337070.25006672264201162113126WETL
2023-02-09 07:00:11FORECAST2023133-15128.65221.14624.899130.151182310440.248031630.828031635.566.38803163TT-3.348-5.34841388.7909912530950.6016071832380.23549071953393161113124.5WETL
2023-02-09 03:00:10FORECAST2023133-15128.7621.39825.079130.173043474120.255905650.835905655.566.39590565TT-3.24-5.2441388.8026022010550.6116180391690.23960690061557161113124.5WETL
2023-02-08 23:00:05FORECAST2023133-15128.45422.0125.232124.400550741060.27559070.64559075.566.2055907TF-3.546-11.54641385.7142027176847.9830592467280.22804659186266161113124.5WETL
2023-02-08 19:00:05FORECAST2023133-15127.75222.40625.079124.498432219750.295275750.685275755.566.24527575TF-4.248-11.24841385.7669495718548.0273804238890.20274551110727161113124.5WETL
2023-02-08 15:00:04FORECAST2023133-15128.11222.6425.376124.625180546160.299212760.689212765.566.24921276TF-3.888-11.88841385.8352328528348.0847855553530.2155051917211161113124.5WETL
2023-02-08 11:00:06FORECAST2023133-15128.9423.66626.303125.890076180570.27559070.68559075.566.2455907TF-3.06-11.0641386.5154686124748.6584617885940.24655346488456161113124.5WETL
2023-02-08 07:00:15FORECAST2023133-15128.423.7226.06125.879091589640.303149770.723149775.566.28314977TF-3.6-11.641386.5095707197748.6534736529090.22603954669016161113124.5WETL
2023-02-08 03:00:18FORECAST2023133-15128.4923.926.195126.141651020860.334645850.784645855.566.34464585TT-3.51-12.5141386.6505002007748.7727324633670.22939016144067161113124.5WETL
2023-02-07 23:00:05FORECAST2023133-15127.84223.2725.556120.636043964440.389763990.799763995.966.75976399TT-4.158-17.15841383.6755835934646.2851045704630.20589245873979161113124.5WETL
2023-02-07 19:00:05FORECAST2023133-15127.8623.1825.52120.637022562980.374015950.784015955.966.74401595TT-4.14-16.1441383.6761160776446.2855442721350.20652530076611161113124.5WETL
2023-02-07 15:00:05FORECAST2023133-15128.02223.73825.88120.662087026520.464567180.814567185.966.77456718TT-3.978-14.97841383.689753936646.2968064806840.21227243397703161113124.5WETL
2023-02-07 11:00:08FORECAST2023133-15129.13823.84626.492124.904053834050.251968640.561968645.966.52196864TT-2.862-12.86241385.985393229548.2111403350930.25431738515479162113126WETL
2023-02-07 07:00:12FORECAST2023133-15129.89423.82826.861125.044618353490.259842660.569842665.956.51984266TT-2.106-13.10641386.0610404185448.2748554602860.28509710636141162113126WETL
2023-02-07 03:00:12FORECAST2023133-15128.81423.95426.384126.143806669850.326771830.666771836.136.79677183TT-3.186-14.18641386.6516568622348.7737118518080.24167960188469161113124.5WETL
2023-02-06 23:00:04FORECAST2023133-15128.97623.82826.402123.079333399190.468504190.808504195.986.78850419TT-3.024-15.02441385.0009339306947.3856583062530.24795559167693161113124.5WETL
2023-02-06 19:00:06FORECAST2023133-15129.64223.95426.798121.947117419750.3937010.6937015.816.503701TT-2.358-14.35841384.3877914864746.8749831431190.27464270832294162113126WETL
2023-02-06 15:00:05FORECAST2023133-15129.3925.80827.599121.965305220150.397638010.687638015.896.57763801TT-2.61-16.6141384.3976548849146.883177303950.26438075285625162113126WETL
2023-02-06 11:00:06FORECAST2023133-15131.51425.19628.355122.15509973960.031496080.361496086.016.37149608TF-0.486-13.48641384.5005548804846.9687036313580.36148007464899162112124WETL
2023-02-06 07:00:11FORECAST2023133-15131.44225.12428.283123.013157071250.03937010.38937016.076.4593701TF-0.558-13.55841384.9651451717747.3557778699730.35814136151368162112124WETL
2023-02-06 03:00:12FORECAST2023133-15131.15425.23228.193123.08769730010.200787510.500787515.976.47078751TT-0.846-13.84641385.0054567760447.3894351225350.34489686311037162113126WETL
2023-02-05 23:00:05FORECAST2023133-15131.44225.84428.643117.482107797150.094488240.374488245.886.25448824TF-0.558-16.55841381.9525398158444.8725894560420.35814136151368162112124WETL
2023-02-05 19:00:06FORECAST2023133-15131.40625.84428.625117.772015728680.098425250.428425255.916.33842525TF-0.594-16.59441382.1114976820845.0020413151220.35647604349007162112124WETL
2023-02-05 15:00:07FORECAST2023133-15133.18827.33830.263117.796477429950.161417410.421417415.936.35141741TF1.188-15.81241382.1249047924245.0129677228020.44157364567676162112124WETL
2023-02-05 11:00:11FORECAST2023133-15136.1429.19232.666118.893767808380.188976480.458976485.66.05897648TF4.14-9.8641382.7254580545245.5036717442910.58666533879991163112125WETL
2023-02-05 07:00:19FORECAST2023133-15136.2329.22832.729119.109258029670.181102460.481102465.656.13110246TF4.23-8.7741382.8432005732145.600169561980.59100558377232163112125WETL
2023-02-05 03:00:17FORECAST2023133-15136.57229.06632.819118.782280736280.129921330.419921335.666.07992133TF4.572-9.42841382.6645169099845.4537640754130.60739271859641163112125WETL
2023-02-04 23:00:09FORECAST2023133-15138.69629.44434.07115.8941381004400.315.525.83TF6.696-8.30441381.0797690855244.1649113856820.70396800027293164112126WETL
2023-02-04 19:00:06FORECAST2023133-15138.6629.44434.052116.7674887603200.295.716TF6.66-9.3441381.5602106372244.5538276069680.70242372587957164112126WETL
2023-02-04 15:00:07FORECAST2023133-15138.85828.99433.926117.5284682010800.595.466.05TF6.858-8.14241381.9779673038644.8932853837840.71087131860349164113129WETL
2023-02-04 11:00:06FORECAST2023133-15132.93627.84230.389118.19197618590.181102460.631102465.175.80110246TF0.936-17.06441382.3415564592345.1897041359110.4292747863067162113126WETL
2023-02-04 07:00:14FORECAST2023133-15132.93627.8630.398117.991327642480.181102460.631102465.135.76110246TF0.936-15.06441382.2316696810545.1000221726670.4292747863067162113126WETL
2023-02-04 03:00:20FORECAST2023133-15131.69426.61829.156118.258741878020.181102460.681102465.165.84110246TF-0.306-18.30641382.3781088078145.219554069310.36987261689393162113126WETL
2023-02-03 23:00:06FORECAST2023133-15129.8425.10627.473119.917496633430.291338740.761338745.426.18133874TF-2.16-34.1641383.2842434106945.9624869688490.28704496108761162113126WETL
2023-02-03 19:00:08FORECAST2023133-15131.71223.95427.833118.696010184110.098425250.598425255.45.99842525TF-0.288-30.28841382.6173477928745.415152610240.37071536544847162113126WETL
2023-02-03 15:00:06FORECAST2023133-15127.21221.2924.251117.195385565750.149606380.609606385.175.77960638TF-4.788-32.78841381.795213512844.744637254790.18729441338942161113124.5WETL
2023-02-03 11:00:08FORECAST2023133-15126.6919.9423.315117.302102506170.015748040.395748044.965.35574804TF-5.31-34.3141381.853783160244.7922516146280.17038152696537161112123WETL
2023-02-03 07:00:18FORECAST2023133-15126.90619.88623.396116.739259634200.364.895.25TF-5.094-32.09441381.5446980897644.5412455723520.17725800584926161112123WETL
2023-02-03 03:00:18FORECAST2023133-15130.05620.60625.331119.450269751880.240157610.730157614.915.64015761TF-1.944-31.94441383.0293956227545.7529646300380.29623542983962162113126WETL
2023-02-02 23:00:06FORECAST2023133-15131.17223.43227.302122.021111063840.322834820.972834824.525.49283482TF-0.828-36.82841384.4279160235446.9083214371470.34571930375114162113126WETL
2023-02-02 19:00:09FORECAST2023133-15131.02823.68427.356121.726169182890.322834820.972834824.495.46283482TF-0.972-34.97241384.2679329859246.7754634222060.33916045954614162113126WETL
2023-02-02 15:00:08FORECAST2023133-15130.4722.126.285126.7533361474101.914.436.34TT-1.53-32.5341386.9784595324649.0508107629260.314216830285141621151210WETL
2023-02-02 11:00:07FORECAST2023133-15131.56821.43426.501131.2485576275702.414.747.15TT-0.432-31.43241389.3730362041851.1046493808650.363991062983071621151210WETL
2023-02-02 07:00:17FORECAST2023133-15131.5521.2926.42130.3572110068502.314.646.95TT-0.45-26.4541388.9003920646350.6959704690160.363153411909641621151210WETL
2023-02-02 03:00:15FORECAST2023133-15129.53421.48825.511125.489636635150.244094621.394094624.646.03409462TT-2.466-33.46641386.3003565508448.4766913755940.27426091887597162114128WETL
2023-02-01 23:00:06FORECAST2023133-15129.9322.0125.97126.016944731890.255905650.895905654.655.54590565TF-2.07-31.0741386.5835754834348.7160810659520.29085791492517162113126WETL
2023-02-01 19:00:06FORECAST2023133-15130.48823.32426.906125.43237568850.259842660.899842664.525.41984266TF-1.512-32.51241386.269578667148.4507109084090.31500914297589162113126WETL
2023-02-01 15:00:07FORECAST2023133-15133.49424.27828.886125.497613824580.011811031.041811034.595.63181103TF1.494-28.50641386.3046439523148.4803110253690.45658292331137162114128WETL
2023-02-01 11:00:09FORECAST2023133-15132.91825.86229.39138.2957881588301.546.397.93TT0.918-28.08241393.0724531774554.3602647156990.428398771605551621151210WETL
2023-02-01 07:00:17FORECAST2023133-15132.9925.86229.426138.7324434723701.526.477.99TT0.99-32.0141393.2995023966954.5634009839590.431904903953991621151210WETL
2023-02-01 03:00:15FORECAST2023133-15129.96621.54225.754141.420162138450.173228441.593228446.748.33322844TT-2.034-35.03441394.6915132810255.8173378028710.292389690734551621151210WETL
2023-01-31 23:00:06FORECAST2023133-15127.84227.84227.842143.410788464540.027559071.537559076.297.82755907TT-4.158-34.15841395.7163810290556.7499982117090.20903403170733161115127.5WETL
2023-01-31 19:00:04FORECAST2023133-15127.82427.82427.824143.826406893360.027559071.537559076.327.85755907TT-4.176-37.17641395.9297077524956.9451472483780.20839302318178161115127.5WETL
2023-01-31 15:00:07FORECAST2023133-15125.28625.28625.286147.7504061614802.116.348.45TT-6.714-42.71441397.9327385571858.7947237467730.12990046392503161115127.5WETL
2023-01-31 11:00:07FORECAST2023133-15119.34619.34619.346143.8499632952101.996.298.28TT-12.654-53.65441395.9417919321256.9562122364760.031070256211926161115127.5WETL
2023-01-31 07:00:18FORECAST2023133-15119.3119.3119.31138.3849757109301.996.358.34TT-12.69-52.6941393.1188488135654.4017423445750.030757482771088161115127.5WETL
2023-01-31 03:00:15FORECAST2023133-15122.33422.33422.334144.3998177614601.826.067.88TT-9.666-46.66641396.2236560179957.2146237217790.067653064405802161115127.5WETL