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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, February 1, 2023

[ Tuesday, January 31, 2023 | Index | Today | Thursday, February 2, 2023 ]

DAY 124 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/02/2023 07:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 35.38°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.98°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.18°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.619
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -36

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.03 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.75 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.78 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 105 in
SWE DAY: 32
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 367.49 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 38.75 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -160

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 2.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-02-02 07:00:11OBSERVATION2023124-16035.3800422.9800229.18003105.4328600.035.755.78TF3.38004-35.6199632367.49463189592 38.7460100754340.6190603774224616 3111122.5WETL
2023-02-02 03:00:11OBSERVATION2023124-16035.3800422.9800229.18003105.4328600.035.755.78TF3.38004-35.6199632367.49463189592 38.7460100754340.6190603774224616 3111122.5WETL
2023-02-01 11:00:03FORECAST2023124-16031.87420.55226.21310700.035.755.78TF-0.126-39.12632368.4099457378639.4198641939510.46516478530168162111122WETL
2023-02-01 07:00:13FORECAST2023124-16031.5521.18226.366106.7993270833300.035.755.78TF-0.45-39.4532368.2929427277639.3334384528650.45085089305478162111122WETL
2023-02-01 03:00:11FORECAST2023124-16031.44223.01827.23106.7993270833300.035.755.78TF-0.558-39.55832368.2929427277639.3334384528650.44609283426434162111122WETL
2023-01-31 23:00:02FORECAST2023124-16031.92822.49627.21210800.025.755.77TF-0.071999999999999-38.07232368.9921108130539.8511479678090.46755533075793162111122WETL
2023-01-31 19:00:02FORECAST2023124-16031.40622.15426.7810800.025.755.77TF-0.594-38.59432368.9921108130539.8511479678090.44450850344731162111122WETL
2023-01-31 15:00:02FORECAST2023124-16030.93822.67626.80710800.025.755.77TF-1.062-39.06232368.9921108130539.8511479678090.42400186343284162111122WETL
2023-01-31 11:00:04FORECAST2023124-16031.02822.06426.546108.091925420200.025.755.77TF-0.972-38.97232369.0455524066639.8908443273970.42793127389362162111122WETL
2023-01-31 07:00:15FORECAST2023124-16031.51422.92827.221108.4429153942300.035.755.78TF-0.486-38.48632369.2494885533440.042491046550.44926405410699162111122WETL
2023-01-31 03:00:13FORECAST2023124-16030.90222.29826.6108.31835291667005.755.75TF-1.098-38.09832369.1771346714939.9886591621110.4224321892201162111122WETL
2023-01-30 23:00:05FORECAST2023124-16031.51422.78427.149111.044832046300.015.755.76TF-0.486-39.48632370.7556272512341.1704963583340.44926405410699162111122WETL
2023-01-30 19:00:03FORECAST2023124-16031.62222.94627.284111.0894049438500.025.755.77TF-0.378-39.37832370.7813419820141.1898786450660.45402690351314162111122WETL
2023-01-30 15:00:04FORECAST2023124-16031.69423.61227.653111005.755.75TF-0.306-40.30632370.72976007741.1510033685470.45720585629753162111122WETL
2023-01-30 11:00:06FORECAST2023124-16031.04622.2826.663111005.755.75TF-0.954-40.95432370.72976007741.1510033685470.42871802732242162111122WETL
2023-01-30 07:00:14FORECAST2023124-16031.53223.34227.437110.79374166667005.755.75TF-0.468-40.46832370.6107152782941.0613478474410.45005737377388162111122WETL
2023-01-30 03:00:17FORECAST2023124-16031.67621.32626.501110.79374166667005.755.75TF-0.324-40.32432370.6107152782941.0613478474410.45641085328514162111122WETL
2023-01-29 23:00:03FORECAST2023124-16030.68620.82225.754110005.725.72TF-1.314-42.31432370.15201424140.716721566510.41304083419479162111122WETL
2023-01-29 19:00:03FORECAST2023124-16030.70420.80425.754110005.725.72TF-1.296-42.29632370.15201424140.716721566510.41382162778974162111122WETL
2023-01-29 15:00:08FORECAST2023124-16030.50620.55225.529110005.725.72TF-1.494-43.49432370.15201424140.716721566510.40525229603179162111122WETL
2023-01-29 11:00:06FORECAST2023124-16031.2821.52426.402110005.725.72TF-0.72-41.7232370.15201424140.716721566510.43897048677817162111122WETL
2023-01-29 07:00:14FORECAST2023124-16031.87421.07426.474109.77996416667005.725.72TF-0.126-41.12632370.0246923614840.6212974682250.46516478530168162111122WETL
2023-01-29 03:00:19FORECAST2023124-16031.17221.86626.519109.77996416667005.725.72TF-0.828-41.82832370.0246923614840.6212974682250.43423306268282162111122WETL
2023-01-28 23:00:07FORECAST2023124-16030.86622.11826.492103.235012772360.03937010.03937015.35.3393701TF-1.134-45.13432366.2047896220737.8051561339360.42086374571762162111122WETL
2023-01-28 19:00:05FORECAST2023124-16030.79420.5725.682103.270335647730.047244120.047244125.35.34724412TF-1.206-46.20632366.225576407837.8202381984180.41773064763622162111122WETL
2023-01-28 15:00:09FORECAST2023124-16030.219.61624.908105.10594336960.448819140.448819145.35.74881914TF-1.8-49.832367.3032311400938.6057526116820.3920990307789162112124WETL
2023-01-28 11:00:11FORECAST2023124-16030.50621.43425.97104.00919639848005.35.3TF-1.494-48.49432366.6599535330738.1360071184770.40525229603179162111122WETL
2023-01-28 07:00:17FORECAST2023124-16030.5621.41625.988103.98548787914005.275.27TF-1.44-49.4432366.6460279216338.125866092380.40758507119475162111122WETL
2023-01-28 03:00:13FORECAST2023124-16028.16619.11223.639104.01049462854005.285.28TF-3.834-51.83432366.6607160468738.1365624368880.30840710359938162111122WETL
2023-01-27 23:00:06FORECAST2023124-16029.17418.24823.711103.137034404830.220472560.360472564.695.05047256TF-2.826-56.82632366.1471216056637.7633282782730.34896645185009162112124WETL
2023-01-27 19:00:06FORECAST2023124-16029.06618.44623.756103.308198798260.220472560.360472564.735.09047256TF-2.934-56.93432366.2478560223237.8364063193910.34452676664012162112124WETL
2023-01-27 15:00:06FORECAST2023124-16029.0318.75223.891100.8086952777500.064.64.66TF-2.97-55.9732364.7724785973836.7722376406350.34305157903914162111122WETL
2023-01-27 11:00:07FORECAST2023124-16029.7519.6724.71103.37224546176004.684.68TF-2.25-55.2532366.285537786437.8637585211490.37298181719089162111122WETL
2023-01-27 07:00:19FORECAST2023124-16030.12819.97625.052103.19576966493004.764.76TF-1.872-52.87232366.1816936733437.7884017158290.38902137435801162111122WETL
2023-01-27 03:00:21FORECAST2023124-16030.7421.27226.006103.44735507656004.834.83TF-1.26-54.2632366.3297206132137.895840683370.41538423433526162111122WETL
2023-01-26 23:00:08FORECAST2023124-16027.5920.04823.819107.159155078890.464567180.534567184.555.08456718TF-4.41-62.4132368.5026992381539.4884378946510.28620002486609162113126WETL
2023-01-26 19:00:06FORECAST2023124-16027.5920.0323.81107.471529202980.464567180.534567184.645.17456718TF-4.41-63.4132368.6846378142939.623101819550.28620002486609162113126WETL
2023-01-26 11:00:05FORECAST2023124-16026.85220.44423.648104.29982120436004.654.65TF-5.148-61.14832366.8305889426938.2603648390110.25890782625487162111122WETL
2023-01-26 07:00:21FORECAST2023124-16026.8720.42623.648104.66573371346004.634.63TF-5.13-60.1332367.0452491901738.4170603125280.25955713457542162111122WETL
2023-01-26 03:00:14FORECAST2023124-16027.24818.9523.099105.065691416130.114173290.114173294.534.64417329TF-4.752-65.75232367.2796537299938.5884907622180.27338392461787162112124WETL
2023-01-25 23:00:08FORECAST2023124-16027.93216.57422.253105.079215787540.066929170.066929174.374.43692917TF-4.068-73.06832367.2875758417738.594290437960.29929434434445162111122WETL
2023-01-25 19:00:08FORECAST2023124-16028.11216.50222.307104.985054707170.066929170.066929174.354.41692917TF-3.888-73.88832367.232413869438.5539150603250.3062933839572162111122WETL
2023-01-25 15:00:06FORECAST2023124-16027.39215.47621.434105.26717528249004.474.47TF-4.608-78.60832367.3976478832738.6749125981020.27874545792075162111122WETL
2023-01-25 11:00:11FORECAST2023124-16023.48615.33219.409105.34270088909004.534.53TF-8.514-79.51432367.4418620703338.7073181702040.15345604721927161111121.5WETL
2023-01-25 07:00:17FORECAST2023124-16023.77415.4419.607105.46869637105004.534.53TF-8.226-78.22632367.515603447838.761391591660.16117855750751161111121.5WETL
2023-01-25 03:00:20FORECAST2023124-16022.71216.12419.418110.41494616670.507874290.617874294.535.14787429TF-9.288-79.28832370.3919258001140.89680454780.13393122225622161113124.5WETL
2023-01-24 23:00:09FORECAST2023124-16022.67615.54819.112105.37568244511004.184.18TF-9.324-78.32432367.4611674663738.7214712938470.1330665111889161111121.5WETL
2023-01-24 19:00:11FORECAST2023124-16022.58616.37619.481105.07483181336004.124.12TF-9.414-78.41432367.2850078902438.5924104316360.13092152316241161111121.5WETL
2023-01-24 15:00:09FORECAST2023124-16022.51416.17819.346105.70039170377004.184.18TF-9.486-77.48632367.6511461931238.8608701629530.1292227742192161111121.5WETL
2023-01-24 11:00:09FORECAST2023124-16021.23613.38817.312104.75366291536004.134.13TF-10.764-86.76432367.0968025729338.454734714030.10158101823615161111121.5WETL
2023-01-24 07:00:29FORECAST2023124-16021.213.35217.276104.65716728412004.124.12TF-10.8-87.832367.0402260292138.4133903355410.10086995703087161111121.5WETL
2023-01-24 03:00:19FORECAST2023124-16023.0917.90620.498110.406510690360.263779670.463779674.394.85377967TF-8.91-79.9132370.3870511348940.8931419206960.14324321461157161112123WETL
2023-01-23 23:00:09FORECAST2023124-16022.8216.93419.877115.517276263310.507874290.687874294.244.92787429TF-9.18-72.1832373.3213880887743.1250699228540.1365484221856161113124.5WETL
2023-01-23 19:00:08FORECAST2023124-16023.41417.0620.237116.348179395820.570866450.750866454.285.03086645TF-8.586-73.58632373.7948600863443.4903514385610.15156425826418161113124.5WETL
2023-01-23 15:00:08FORECAST2023124-16024.086.49415.287119.047594138380.527559340.947559344.345.28755934TF-7.92-82.9232375.3261842200644.6816792485370.16965605367692161113124.5WETL
2023-01-23 11:00:10FORECAST2023124-16026.877.86217.366122.756227431210.31496081.11496084.275.3849608TF-5.13-81.1332377.4129695496246.3297923255220.25955713457542162114128WETL
2023-01-23 07:00:29FORECAST2023124-16026.877.7917.33122.540847422370.31496081.11496084.275.3849608TF-5.13-80.1332377.2923157635246.2337200996090.25955713457542162114128WETL
2023-01-23 03:00:15FORECAST2023124-16028.8329.03218.932120.340489847450.685039740.985039744.395.37503974TF-3.168-78.16832376.0559077922345.2547521537460.33498123954607162113126WETL
2023-01-22 23:00:05FORECAST2023124-1608.5468.5468.546100.9929906671100.083.523.6FF-23.454-90.45432364.8815824504836.850482251020.003542728927976161111121.5DRYL
2023-01-22 19:00:07FORECAST2023124-1605.7565.7565.75699.966188167428003.563.56FF-26.244-98.24432364.2730589671836.4149891570380.0013253209750393161111121.5DRYL
2023-01-22 15:00:11FORECAST2023124-1608.5828.5828.58299.890773423827003.553.55FF-23.418-91.41832364.2283026344336.3830468530010.0035858571095022161111121.5DRYL
2023-01-22 11:00:10FORECAST2023124-16016.86216.86216.862100.3216537365800.043.493.53FF-15.138-79.13832364.4839014571136.5656277545360.039111610248044161111121.5DRYL
2023-01-22 07:00:11FORECAST2023124-16016.86216.86216.862100.3110227993600.043.513.55FF-15.138-80.13832364.4775985350136.5611206965010.039111610248044161111121.5DRYL
2023-01-22 03:00:24FORECAST2023124-16017.72617.72617.726106.5251016276600.263.994.25TF-14.274-71.27432368.1329582032439.2154007850920.048006456982686161112123WETL