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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, December 9, 2023

[ Friday, December 8, 2023 | Index | Today | Sunday, December 10, 2023 ]

DAY 70 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/10/2023 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.54°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 17.21°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 24.37°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.420
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 74

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 2.59 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 4.22 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 13.03 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 17.25 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 57 in
SWE DAY: 23
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 328.42 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 18.79 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 150

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 2
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 12.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-12-10 07:00:03OBSERVATION20247015031.5399217.2099424.3749357.2210141666672.594.2213.0317.25TT-0.4600873.5399223328.41888436737 18.7924616349860.4199634537672216 22151212.5WETL
2023-12-10 03:00:04OBSERVATION20247015031.5399217.2099424.3749357.2210141666672.594.2213.0317.25TT-0.4600873.5399223328.41888436737 18.7924616349860.4199634537672216 22151212.5WETL
2023-12-09 11:00:02FORECAST20247015029.06615.90822.48762.2824676207632.2905524183.92055241813.0316.950552418TT-2.93471.06623331.8611836518420.6691334253840.331793968684161622151212.5WETL
2023-12-09 07:00:03FORECAST20247015029.76816.28623.02761.8843763549592.1606310883.79063108813.0316.820631088TT-2.23271.76823331.5920419711820.5203667216540.356118203108521622151212.5WETL
2023-12-09 03:00:04FORECAST20247015030.30818.57224.4461.3934653381942.0338593663.66385936613.0316.693859366TT-1.69272.30823331.2597717414920.3371853143490.375242310124751622151212.5WETL
2023-12-08 23:00:01FORECAST20247015030.93816.93423.93650.7843854663061.8610246273.10102462713.0316.131024627TT-1.06270.93823323.9769156501916.4529685665640.397944395856921622151212.5WETL
2023-12-08 19:00:01FORECAST20247015029.7517.58223.66650.7476177910911.8287411453.06874114513.0316.098741145TT-2.2569.7523323.9513328075216.439758420230.355486614506761622151212.5WETL
2023-12-08 15:00:01FORECAST20247015030.61418.42824.52150.992917743631.9043317373.14433173713.0316.174331737TT-1.38670.61423324.1219666157416.527924782540.386220507907231622151212.5WETL
2023-12-08 11:00:02FORECAST20247015031.44217.45624.44950.6271814817341.7846466333.02464663313.0316.054646633TT-0.55871.44223323.8675168374416.3964995509680.416362346219951622151212.5WETL
2023-12-08 07:00:04FORECAST20247015030.70418.78824.74650.4255489777871.7956702613.03567026113.0316.065670261TT-1.29669.70423323.7271360991716.3241185568070.389467242419511622151212.5WETL
2023-12-08 03:00:07FORECAST20247015032.01819.20225.6150.8426676612831.8759852653.19598526513.0316.225985265TT0.01800000000000173.01823324.0174633389116.4739122049920.437636225581561622151212.5WETL
2023-12-07 23:00:02FORECAST20247015030.00217.5123.75642.2018730454411.8043316833.00433168313.0316.034331683TT-1.99866.00223317.9399443841513.4176611689750.364364210669881622151212.5WETL
2023-12-07 19:00:02FORECAST20247015031.118.60824.85441.4965107213821.7543316562.92433165613.0315.954331656TT-0.967.123317.4379126736413.1725657466350.403841805508851622151212.5WETL
2023-12-07 15:00:02FORECAST20247015030.21818.12224.1741.3957871946921.7456702342.92567023413.0315.955670234TT-1.78267.21823317.3661507027513.137621637290.372032114199531622151212.5WETL
2023-12-07 11:00:02FORECAST20247015030.2916.91623.60344.5206865284921.4137802912.60378029113.0315.633780291TT-1.7166.2923319.5840029400414.2280992144140.374599571458151622151212.5WETL
2023-12-07 07:00:05FORECAST20247015029.49815.78222.6445.1163822745491.4917330892.64173308913.0315.671733089TT-2.50264.49823320.0047953211814.4374586753990.346686701501461622151212.5WETL
2023-12-07 03:00:05FORECAST20247015031.40618.42824.91745.1565487490931.3216542572.65165425713.0315.681654257TT-0.59468.40623320.0331455344514.4515923376520.415040155391291622151212.5WETL
2023-12-06 23:00:02FORECAST20247015030.05617.2423.64848.5700424888191.6188985122.97889851213.0916.068898512TT-1.94466.05623322.4319133116115.6605317292960.366276244023631622151212.5WETL
2023-12-06 19:00:02FORECAST20247015030.68618.37424.5348.8878946249171.7027568253.02275682513.0916.112756825TT-1.31464.68623322.6542211842715.7738855655410.388817270133431622151212.5WETL
2023-12-06 15:00:03FORECAST20247015032.03619.65225.84447.7328640990261.763780482.9037804813.0915.99378048TT0.03600000000000169.03623321.8455256151615.3626087350680.4383042834141622151212.5WETL
2023-12-06 11:28:57FORECAST20247015031.85618.93225.39450.4368150518151.897638822.9376388213.0916.02763882TT-0.14468.85623323.7349816704416.3281613963140.43163192625011622151212.5WETL
2023-12-06 11:00:03FORECAST20247015031.40619.2225.31312.7126440431261.69291432.592914312.9815.5729143TT-0.59469.40623296.164871030473.76503858348880.415040155391291622153237.5WETL
2023-12-06 07:00:07FORECAST20247015031.47819.81425.64612.9786214674141.858268722.6582687213.0715.72826872TT-0.52269.47823296.368649208563.84645651288680.417685483969831622153237.5WETL
2023-12-06 03:00:07FORECAST20247015031.80218.17624.98910.8451226702881.625985132.2959851312.9515.24598513TT-0.19867.80223294.730189132923.19638505578360.429633926966041622153237.5WETL
2023-12-05 23:00:02FORECAST20247015029.7517.36623.55856.5300999383291.271654231.9916542312.4514.44165423TT-2.2558.7523327.9455507809318.5387947599760.355486614506761622151212.5WETL
2023-12-05 19:00:03FORECAST20247015029.64218.01423.82856.9833259456221.248032172.0480321712.514.54803217TT-2.35857.64223328.256141929318.7051267292090.351705461738041622151212.5WETL
2023-12-05 15:00:03FORECAST20247015030.79418.06824.43155.665090473161.283465261.8734652612.2114.08346526TT-1.20660.79423327.3517753101118.2220661891870.392721708291041622151212.5WETL
2023-12-05 11:00:05FORECAST20247015029.42617.49223.45957.4011178340571.440945662.2009456612.314.50094566TT-2.57458.42623328.5421338986918.8586857413710.344187303361111622151212.5WETL
2023-12-05 07:00:08FORECAST20247015030.86620.62425.74556.7806355006851.429134632.2191346312.4814.69913463TT-1.13464.86623328.1172844348418.6307079289690.395330702650751622151212.5WETL
2023-12-04 23:00:03FORECAST20247015031.9120.08425.99763.4237371951121.25984321.759843212.7314.4898432TT-0.0959.9123332.6312668414921.0967180510320.433631675941731622151212.5WETL
2023-12-04 19:00:03FORECAST20247015031.69419.70625.764.5217844106171.2354337382.01543373812.5314.545433738TT-0.30657.69423333.3700811595221.5096325055240.425643379774411622151212.5WETL
2023-12-04 15:00:03FORECAST20247015031.5520.10225.82665.8963664817581.255906192.1559061912.3714.52590619TT-0.4558.5523334.2920606382722.0286321397610.420334542070291622151212.5WETL
2023-12-04 11:00:03FORECAST20247015028.27419.81424.04470.6683574005331.657481212.8174812112.2315.04748121TT-3.72651.27423337.4679287544823.8483042004390.305182385207791622151212.5WETL
2023-12-04 07:00:06FORECAST20247015026.94219.52623.23471.1457048221461.704725332.8447253311.7214.56472533TT-5.05851.94223337.7835015131524.0318452924460.262713317434451622151212.5WETL
2023-12-04 03:00:05FORECAST20247015028.43620.87624.65669.2035494495131.637796162.5377961611.7714.30779616TT-3.56454.43623336.497157201723.2867976580290.310548564350651622151212.5WETL
2023-12-03 23:00:03FORECAST20247015030.77622.6426.70871.6303015112351.551181942.4711819411.6814.15118194TT-1.22455.77623338.1034755972324.2184538990260.392070206939841622151212.5WETL
2023-12-03 19:00:03FORECAST20247015030.1121.57825.84471.1952753237431.480315762.3003157611.7514.05031576TT-1.8954.1123337.8162504788924.0509209616790.36819160162411622151212.5WETL
2023-12-03 15:00:03FORECAST20247015030.23623.14426.6973.1939941110871.779528522.6995285211.4814.17952852TT-1.76457.23623339.1332835912724.8225195620530.372673450600151622151212.5WETL
2023-12-03 11:00:03FORECAST20247015028.70620.6624.68374.4632763446041.69291432.512914311.2713.7829143TT-3.29451.70623339.9661981304625.3149969592130.319581913816331622151212.5WETL
2023-12-03 07:00:05FORECAST20247015029.76822.06425.91672.5544016352131.685040282.5150402811.2713.78504028TT-2.23257.76823338.7125586144424.5750870166030.356118203108521622151212.5WETL
2023-12-03 03:00:15FORECAST20247015029.35419.424.37773.0624404481660.751968912.1419689111.5713.71196891TT-2.64653.35423339.0468032016824.7715868680640.341694688938321622151212.5WETL
2023-12-02 23:00:04FORECAST20247015025.3415.06220.20155.7274517013820.523622331.8836223311.5413.42362233TT-6.6641.3423327.3946260840418.244868212390.215962958185751612151210WETL
2023-12-02 19:00:03FORECAST20247015026.76216.80821.78553.4945021872760.547244391.8872443911.513.38724439TT-5.23847.76223325.8560439247417.4315068544690.257214682963541622151212.5WETL
2023-12-02 15:00:03FORECAST20247015028.99419.16624.0854.0118162532570.960630442.1906304412.1314.32063044TT-3.00653.99423326.2132688797417.6193711381070.329336690065241622151212.5WETL
2023-12-02 11:00:03FORECAST20247015028.14816.39422.27151.83500361967201.0512.3813.43TT-3.85251.14823324.7069241327716.8311845877550.301037346938871622141210WETL
2023-12-02 07:00:07FORECAST20247015027.93217.20422.56853.44083228142301.0412.0113.05TT-4.06855.93223325.8189559401417.4120361785050.293991226519841622141210WETL
2023-12-02 03:00:07FORECAST20247015027.35619.16623.26154.62281163767700.8812.3513.23TT-4.64448.35623326.6345801930617.8416991482370.27558413190537162213127.5WETL
2023-12-01 23:00:04FORECAST20247015030.66821.41626.04245.87375463363201.0212.8113.83TT-1.33256.66823320.5388756171814.7043217306030.388167608825021622141210WETL
2023-12-01 19:00:04FORECAST20247015028.68817.7823.23444.04095852027600.9912.5913.58TT-3.31257.68823319.2446656527614.0598410778330.31897627214534162213127.5WETL
2023-12-01 15:00:04FORECAST20247015028.5817.7823.1846.26507306418700.8912.7313.62TT-3.4249.5823320.8144214158114.8425026468470.31535260258914162213127.5WETL
2023-12-01 11:00:03FORECAST20247015026.79820.91223.85554.85075857473700.8913.3414.23TT-5.20241.79823326.7915934033117.9247667940190.25830961021708162213127.5WETL
2023-12-01 07:00:05FORECAST20247015029.42620.3924.90857.55211959432501.1413.314.44TT-2.57456.42623328.6454248093818.9142407927570.344187303361111622141210WETL
2023-12-01 03:00:09FORECAST20247015026.85217.8722.36162.69403608461301.2312.7613.99TT-5.14845.85223332.1391510301220.8231439197950.259956512255251622141210WETL
2023-11-30 23:00:05FORECAST20247015029.19219.09424.14355.6719977021501.4111.8413.25TT-2.80850.19223327.3565218643718.2245915330170.336111603646211622141210WETL
2023-11-30 19:00:04FORECAST20247015027.93217.40222.66750.9519315205650.094488240.9544882413.0413.99448824TT-4.06855.93223324.0934634681416.5131879568910.29399122651984162213127.5WETL
2023-11-30 15:00:03FORECAST20247015029.37217.623.48656.2042557133870.114173291.3641732913.5814.94417329TT-2.62861.37223327.7220320270518.4193728909590.342317201322111622141210WETL
2023-11-30 11:00:04FORECAST20247015028.97616.66422.8252.21487867167400.5413.4614TT-3.02459.97623324.9703962566116.9682898124250.32872351439856162213127.5WETL
2023-11-30 07:00:06FORECAST20247015032.86417.52825.19668.5253876138791.279528252.6995282513.0515.74952825TT0.86467.86423336.0464946564723.027716302620.469194399271581622151212.5WETL
2023-11-30 03:00:07FORECAST20247015031.1921.23626.21369.8864958809361.342520412.9725204112.8915.86252041TT-0.8168.1923336.9502154438523.5482698436970.407127705460061622151212.5WETL
2023-11-29 23:00:04FORECAST20247015023.01821.48822.25360.4293090920280.244094621.7740946212.1613.93409462TT-8.98243.01823330.6059810981519.9782910194530.157525004811951612151210WETL
2023-11-29 19:00:03FORECAST20247015023.01821.48822.25369.8097385528110.244094621.6340946211.9713.60409462TT-8.98245.01823336.8993347711423.518854478990.157525004811951612151210WETL
2023-11-29 15:00:04FORECAST20247015020.06616.53818.30260.06970515858801.6211.2712.89TT-11.93450.06623330.3617248133419.844731405220.0997435055364991612151210WETL
2023-11-29 11:00:04FORECAST20247015024.76421.41623.0969.2819626920660.007874022.677874029.412.07787402TT-7.23654.76423336.5492155263823.3167901941430.200408494625031612151210WETL
2023-11-29 07:00:06FORECAST20247015025.3416.55620.94866.8446942121650.007874022.387874028.911.28787402TT-6.6648.3423334.9262627795422.3880436191210.215962958185751612151210WETL
2023-11-29 03:00:05FORECAST20247015024.04423.4523.74761.71711132668501.6610.0111.67TT-7.95651.04423331.478876152820.4579187019670.181939426935581612151210WETL