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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, December 8, 2023

[ Thursday, December 7, 2023 | Index | Today | Saturday, December 9, 2023 ]

DAY 69 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/09/2023 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 25.49°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 16.70°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 21.09°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.254
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 94

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.44 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.79 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 11.94 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 14.73 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 54 in
SWE DAY: 24
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 327.39 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 17.75 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 149

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 15.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-12-09 07:00:03OBSERVATION20246914925.4899416.721.0949754.2206920833330.439999999999942.789999999999911.9414.73TT-6.5100694.4899424327.38727650742 17.751164711510.2536034683359816 23151215WETL
2023-12-09 03:00:04OBSERVATION20246914925.4899416.721.0949754.2206920833330.439999999999942.789999999999911.9414.73TT-6.5100694.4899424327.38727650742 17.751164711510.2536034683359816 23151215WETL
2023-12-08 11:00:01FORECAST20246914922.62215.29618.95944.2255357728040.0484252232.39842522311.9414.338425223TT-9.37891.62224320.4316615087114.1712619087920.176487358899721613151212.5WETL
2023-12-08 07:00:03FORECAST20246914921.7415.3518.54543.8464327653770.0543307382.40433073811.9414.344330738TT-10.2690.7424320.1643525633414.0380647585390.156114325732511613151212.5WETL
2023-12-08 03:00:06FORECAST20246914923.77416.39420.08444.1660749649810.1314961342.48149613411.9414.421496134TT-8.22692.77424320.3897521754514.1503578125930.20550491577451613151212.5WETL
2023-12-07 23:00:02FORECAST20246914922.56814.10818.33834.6914616046290.1409449582.36094495811.9414.300944958TT-9.43287.56824313.6303158852310.880294061580.175193808620721613151212.5WETL
2023-12-07 19:00:02FORECAST20246914923.28816.55619.92234.558426387490.1118110842.33181108411.9414.271811084TT-8.71288.28824313.53424224110.8352500304430.192933643236341613151212.5WETL
2023-12-07 15:00:02FORECAST20246914924.00815.72819.86834.5861366580350.11811032.338110311.9414.2781103TT-7.99289.00824313.5542563609410.8446303602080.211726950493931613151212.5WETL
2023-12-07 11:00:02FORECAST20246914923.23414.4518.84238.9072956195740.1307087322.35070873211.9414.290708732TT-8.76688.23424316.6580977400712.3203102191050.191566365257781613151212.5WETL
2023-12-07 07:00:05FORECAST20246914922.20812.95617.58239.0316280309020.1232284132.31322841311.9414.253228413TT-9.79287.20824316.7469011261312.3631472246960.166724027190861613151212.5WETL
2023-12-07 03:00:05FORECAST20246914922.5515.31418.93239.8337317594620.1578741012.48787410111.9414.427874101TT-9.4588.5524317.319123451712.6400048457230.174763961615421613151212.5WETL
2023-12-06 23:00:02FORECAST20246914923.50414.5419.02241.6303563954990.1303150312.58031503111.9414.520315031TT-8.49687.50424318.5966165902913.2632906950540.198461973549971613151212.5WETL
2023-12-06 19:00:02FORECAST20246914923.39616.26819.83241.6052274097480.122047312.5420473111.9414.48204731TT-8.60486.39624318.5787887500613.2545429538680.195685982533321613151212.5WETL
2023-12-06 15:00:03FORECAST20246914924.51217.43820.97540.5580668994860.0893701272.35937012711.9414.299370127TT-7.48888.51224317.8348647277212.8907677066160.225495882466891613151212.5WETL
2023-12-06 11:28:57FORECAST20246914924.0816.4320.25542.5146755653170.098425252.2584252511.9414.19842525TT-7.9289.0824319.2232756090713.5716739954170.213663334679491613151212.5WETL
2023-12-06 11:00:03FORECAST20246914924.51216.53820.5255.6541873652360.098425252.0084252511.9413.94842525TT-7.48889.51224291.871554707131.65029645689680.225495882466891613154250WETL
2023-12-06 07:00:06FORECAST20246914924.67416.84420.7595.24677427346160.114173292.0041732911.9413.94417329TT-7.32689.67424291.554703604541.5297217181790.230026762060111613154250WETL
2023-12-06 03:00:07FORECAST20246914924.24216.28620.2643.871645991462701.7511.9413.69TT-7.75888.24224290.482821980281.12464665330870.218057654722831613154250WETL
2023-12-05 23:00:02FORECAST20246914922.80215.06218.93250.22229337989201.9411.313.24TT-9.19880.80224324.6259694008116.3034606739790.180842575659361613151212.5WETL
2023-12-05 19:00:02FORECAST20246914922.40615.63819.02250.62992423247202.0711.313.37TT-9.59480.40624324.9087660864416.4501062094230.171349262336671613151212.5WETL
2023-12-05 15:00:03FORECAST20246914923.05416.7919.92249.41521440096901.5711.312.87TT-8.94682.05424324.0651883390716.0137507616650.187051709052631613151212.5WETL
2023-12-05 11:00:04FORECAST20246914923.05414.86418.95950.1080300543480.070866181.8308661811.313.13086618TT-8.94681.05424324.546645883616.2623930859730.187051709052631613151212.5WETL
2023-12-05 07:00:08FORECAST20246914924.2617.49220.87650.0435726291250.086614221.9466142211.3913.33661422TT-7.7486.2624324.5018883002116.239233815440.218549101864691613151212.5WETL
2023-12-04 23:00:02FORECAST20246914924.11616.48420.356.9783092905610.015748041.6157480411.6813.29574804TT-7.88480.11624329.2754213507618.7615567995030.214635375442821613151212.5WETL
2023-12-04 19:00:03FORECAST20246914924.18817.4220.80458.2593913010180.0763779941.90637799411.4713.376377994TT-7.81278.18824330.1480912621619.2342268361270.216587134242821613151212.5WETL
2023-12-04 15:00:03FORECAST20246914923.77415.7119.74259.5376369751030.122047312.2020473111.1413.34204731TT-8.22678.77424331.0160034618219.7079106470590.20550491577451613151212.5WETL
2023-12-04 11:00:02FORECAST20246914924.2618.8621.5661.8070487324390.11811032.438110311.0213.4581103TT-7.7475.2624332.5499790482720.5539327610080.218549101864691613151212.5WETL
2023-12-04 07:00:06FORECAST20246914923.75618.03220.89461.6568174069610.122047312.3420473110.5912.93204731TT-8.24476.75624332.448705458320.4977291296230.205030828182551613151212.5WETL
2023-12-04 03:00:05FORECAST20246914924.9819.3122.14560.2152716182990.082677211.9026772110.8412.74267721TT-7.0277.9824331.4749669644619.9598551704320.238722249304281613151212.5WETL
2023-12-03 23:00:03FORECAST20246914925.37620.24622.81163.1257022829360.122047311.9220473110.7512.67204731TT-6.62477.37624333.4372503723921.0484605970480.250236770739171623151215WETL
2023-12-03 19:00:02FORECAST20246914924.54819.29221.9262.8659655485240.110236281.7802362810.8612.64023628TT-7.45275.54824333.2627184515920.9508825767850.226498364471531613151212.5WETL
2023-12-03 15:00:03FORECAST20246914925.62819.9422.78463.3402974912460.192913491.9329134910.5412.47291349TT-6.37278.62824333.5813622878221.1291427248460.257714476616881623151215WETL
2023-12-03 11:00:03FORECAST20246914926.34819.20222.77564.2902867608750.094488241.6744882410.4912.16448824TT-5.65275.34824334.2183870857521.48699594650.279700183237611623151215WETL
2023-12-03 07:00:05FORECAST20246914926.31221.34423.82862.9503028913310.098425251.5884252510.5812.16842525TT-5.68880.31224333.3194021451120.9825573245920.278579663775341623151215WETL
2023-12-03 03:00:15FORECAST20246914924.74620.44422.59568.4505578328530.244094621.9340946211.113.03409462TT-7.25475.74624336.9900639626223.067157862370.232056695868451613151212.5WETL
2023-12-02 23:00:03FORECAST20246914922.85619.5821.21851.9943622083060.437008111.8370081111.1312.96700811TT-9.14467.85624325.8532267462916.9425306981920.182162136137141613151212.5WETL
2023-12-02 19:00:03FORECAST20246914924.31421.12822.72149.567721009560.437008111.8270081111.0812.90700811TT-7.68673.31424324.1712423076916.068429698030.220027256710991613151212.5WETL
2023-12-02 15:00:03FORECAST20246914925.01620.80422.9148.0529595454310.555118411.9751184111.4513.42511841TT-6.98477.01624323.1160438891315.5266821854840.239756921773111613151212.5WETL
2023-12-02 11:00:03FORECAST20246914923.66618.6821.17351.8350036196720.448819141.6788191411.8213.49881914TT-8.33474.66624325.7430878631316.8848941384690.202670139450251613151212.5WETL
2023-12-02 07:00:07FORECAST20246914924.65619.59822.12753.4408322814230.417323061.6973230611.4213.11732306TT-7.34479.65624326.8509019683317.4671842331220.2295208330151613151212.5WETL
2023-12-02 03:00:07FORECAST20246914924.18820.37222.2854.6228116376770.389763991.6497639911.6513.29976399TT-7.81273.18824327.6634327304517.897897966590.216587134242821613151212.5WETL
2023-12-01 23:00:04FORECAST20246914926.0620.7523.40545.8737546336320.161417411.7814174112.1213.90141741TT-5.9478.0624321.5908478766714.7525796479160.270797747562541623151215WETL
2023-12-01 19:00:04FORECAST20246914925.57418.6822.12744.0409585202760.141732361.7217323611.9313.65173236TT-6.42680.57424320.3015465777514.1063871268110.256102417121561623151215WETL
2023-12-01 15:00:03FORECAST20246914924.31420.10222.20846.2650730641870.153543391.7735433911.9213.69354339TT-7.68673.31424321.8653485881914.8911238692620.220027256710991613151212.5WETL
2023-12-01 11:00:03FORECAST20246914926.81620.9323.87354.8507585747370.405512031.8955120312.414.29551203TT-5.18466.81624327.8198504227117.9811674715420.294462267073671623151215WETL
2023-12-01 07:00:05FORECAST20246914926.04219.52622.78457.5521195943250.322834822.2928348212.2214.51283482TT-5.95879.04224329.6666506371518.973014503730.270246071460111623151215WETL
2023-12-01 03:00:09FORECAST20246914922.71217.56420.13862.6940360846130.444882132.2248821311.8414.06488213TT-9.28870.71224333.1471258910420.8863379320980.1786566304131613151212.5WETL
2023-11-30 23:00:04FORECAST20246914924.13419.86822.00155.671997702150.334645852.5346458510.7913.32464585TT-7.86673.13424328.3826362292318.281717369580.215122356247231613151212.5WETL
2023-11-30 19:00:04FORECAST20246914926.34818.53622.44250.0186133455910.362204921.8622049212.1113.97220492TT-5.65280.34824324.4845552454816.230267505440.279700183237611623151215WETL
2023-11-30 15:00:03FORECAST20246914924.94420.28222.61355.1573726531720.377952962.4579529612.4414.89795296TT-7.05683.94424328.030106893718.0932788473960.237690020698421613151212.5WETL
2023-11-30 11:00:03FORECAST20246914925.03416.35820.69652.2148786716740.07874021.778740212.2914.0687402TT-6.96683.03424326.0055606927517.0223407978630.240275172676441613151212.5WETL
2023-11-30 07:00:06FORECAST20246914927.21217.90622.55958.9200473745330.492126252.6121262511.9314.54212625TT-4.78887.21224330.5970199794619.4787920790690.307226956989241623151215WETL
2023-11-30 03:00:07FORECAST20246914927.6822.51425.09759.0521546276690.559055422.7390554211.8514.58905542TT-4.3288.6824330.6866990952119.5277620882830.322617962911331623151215WETL
2023-11-29 23:00:03FORECAST20246914925.48421.9223.70257.4265802819630.665354692.7353546911.0213.75535469TT-6.51672.48424329.581105470218.9267158127030.25342736818431623151215WETL
2023-11-29 19:00:03FORECAST20246914925.6121.32623.46866.8070097427470.594488512.6844885110.7513.43448851TT-6.3973.6124335.8985895177722.4403803424880.257176539584721623151215WETL
2023-11-29 15:00:04FORECAST20246914926.620.71423.65760.0697051585880.582677482.7526774810.2112.96267748TT-5.481.624331.3764410771119.9056851120040.287604397078381623151215WETL
2023-11-29 11:00:04FORECAST20246914930.225.21427.70769.1958671552691.043307653.413307658.7312.14330765TT-1.882.224337.4835215998623.3524649277160.410191123513911623151215WETL
2023-11-29 07:00:06FORECAST20246914928.36422.02825.19666.759837460071.019685593.579685597.7711.34968559TT-3.63675.36424335.8671952573422.4224393635490.345663384599411623151215WETL
2023-11-29 03:00:05FORECAST20246914928.14820.58824.36861.7171113266850.480315223.460315228.2811.74031522TT-3.85279.14824332.489355297120.5202825558090.338318833494621623151215WETL
2023-11-28 23:00:03FORECAST2024691492321.14622.07361.4627061881480.125984322.415984329.511.91598432TT-97224332.3177944198320.425150959520.185710222634551613151212.5WETL
2023-11-28 19:00:04FORECAST20246914927.9521.68624.81860.6368485936230.161417411.521417419.2610.78141741TT-4.0565.9524331.7601036695620.1168871756160.331639828887781623151215WETL
2023-11-28 15:00:04FORECAST20246914927.48221.5624.52165.804449893370.102362262.132362269.3711.50236226TT-4.51863.48224335.2305521791922.0596620736020.316067248073641623151215WETL
2023-11-28 11:00:03FORECAST20246914926.22225.05225.63767.25428284411601.619.711.31TT-5.77868.22224336.1960734098722.6106258121890.275787956434981623151215WETL
2023-11-28 07:00:06FORECAST20246914926.31225.05225.68261.42888483279901.559.3210.87TT-5.68862.31224332.2949782704420.4125099506920.278579663775341623151215WETL
2023-11-28 03:00:06FORECAST20246914934.3433.99834.16967.3296049846101.39.0610.36TT2.3475.3424336.2461373544622.6393196056770.562093952535231633141214WETL