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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, December 7, 2023

[ Wednesday, December 6, 2023 | Index | Today | Friday, December 8, 2023 ]

DAY 68 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/08/2023 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 29.17°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.33°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 26.25°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.378
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 120

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.19 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 6.91 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.38 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 14.29 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 44 in
SWE DAY: 25
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 321.03 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 13.99 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 148

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 15.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-12-08 07:00:03OBSERVATION20246814829.1700423.3299426.2499943.582591.18999999999996.90999999999997.3814.29TT-2.82996120.1700425321.03226161234 13.9914174346230.3782241005593716 23151215WETL
2023-12-08 03:00:06OBSERVATION20246814829.1700423.3299426.2499943.582591.18999999999996.90999999999997.3814.29TT-2.82996120.1700425321.03226161234 13.9914174346230.3782241005593716 23151215WETL
2023-12-07 11:00:01FORECAST20246814825.35819.5822.46938.2870906335391.0602367936.7802367937.3814.160236793TT-6.642116.35825317.2830753431612.1478458621520.244859302556791613151212.5WETL
2023-12-07 07:00:05FORECAST20246814825.44819.29222.3738.4366404027771.0295281156.7495281157.3814.129528115TT-6.552116.44825317.3896492391612.1993918153690.247692370381651613151212.5WETL
2023-12-07 03:00:04FORECAST20246814825.71819.61622.66739.0906171076481.1712604756.8912604757.3814.271260475TT-6.282116.71825317.8552184312.4251566393150.256295384618491623151215WETL
2023-12-06 23:00:01FORECAST20246814826.63621.2923.96340.9827436426831.2311030277.0111030277.3814.391103027TT-5.364114.63625319.1978850288613.0816050934240.286667117268261623151215WETL
2023-12-06 19:00:01FORECAST20246814826.02420.98423.50440.9836157980611.2000006486.9800006487.3814.360000648TT-5.976114.02425319.1985024299113.0819087869040.2662302264361623151215WETL
2023-12-06 15:00:02FORECAST20246814827.10422.96425.03440.1441868971231.0515753716.8315753717.3814.211575371TT-4.896115.10425318.6036352492512.7900838795490.302780288678971623151215WETL
2023-12-06 11:28:57FORECAST20246814827.75222.89225.32242.0694031566120.937008386.717008387.3814.09700838TT-4.248115.75225319.9660743298613.4607817774210.325734122102041623151215WETL
2023-12-06 11:00:03FORECAST20246814827.5922.06424.8275.19283272547660.799213036.469213037.3813.84921303TT-4.41115.5925292.674790207941.51981122851380.319928910161041623154260WETL
2023-12-06 07:00:06FORECAST20246814827.71621.48824.6024.71755654437580.692913766.452913767.3813.83291376TT-4.284115.71625292.306099379561.3789705520890.324440356362261623154260WETL
2023-12-06 03:00:07FORECAST20246814826.9620.87623.9183.87164599146270.673228716.313228717.3813.69322871TT-5.04114.9625291.648790513491.12916087070650.297779319742251623154260WETL
2023-12-05 23:00:02FORECAST20246814826.4219.74223.08150.2222933798920.716535825.856535827.3813.23653582TT-5.58109.4225325.662440175416.35551461330.279369822317271623151215WETL
2023-12-05 19:00:02FORECAST20246814826.22220.62423.42350.6299242324720.795276025.985276027.3813.36527602TT-5.778109.22225325.9441642728316.502528341150.272760817776561623151215WETL
2023-12-05 15:00:03FORECAST20246814826.5120.8423.67549.4152144009690.586614495.486614497.3812.86661449TT-5.49109.5125325.1037860379716.0650732896330.282399389736031623151215WETL
2023-12-05 11:00:04FORECAST20246814826.22219.43622.82949.702992831270.688976755.678976757.3813.05897675TT-5.778109.22225325.3031155386916.1685384196090.272760817776561623151215WETL
2023-12-05 07:00:07FORECAST20246814827.62622.53225.07949.5970883197320.704724795.874724797.3813.25472479TT-4.374112.62625325.2297778059716.130450014050.321215219492051623151215WETL
2023-12-04 23:00:02FORECAST20246814827.08621.34424.21556.8907783600450.484252235.814252237.4713.28425223TT-4.914107.08625330.2347547198618.7873122375520.302153115788731623151215WETL
2023-12-04 19:00:03FORECAST20246814826.31221.36223.83757.8228457379480.7019688835.8319688837.4713.301968883TT-5.688105.31225330.8676895930919.1317113750130.275755288291571623151215WETL
2023-12-04 15:00:02FORECAST20246814826.27620.69623.48658.7702602603570.775590975.745590977.4713.21559097TT-5.724106.27625331.5095123652819.4829003204920.274555565621181623151215WETL
2023-12-04 11:00:02FORECAST20246814825.41220.82223.11761.1386007201531.043307655.873307657.4713.34330765TT-6.588102.41225333.1071966045420.3657078902140.246557050196631613151212.5WETL
2023-12-04 07:00:05FORECAST20246814826.11420.76823.44160.9332519993641.02362265.62362267.1912.8136226TT-5.886104.11425332.9690484264420.2888869357570.269188853366361623151215WETL
2023-12-04 03:00:04FORECAST20246814826.56421.07423.81959.7359765611440.822835095.272835097.3912.66283509TT-5.436103.56425332.1621460053519.8420301682750.284224674978011623151215WETL
2023-12-03 23:00:02FORECAST20246814826.34821.81224.0862.3673279788980.803150045.193150047.3612.55315004TT-5.652103.34825333.9323180103920.8264664001080.276957578664061623151215WETL
2023-12-03 19:00:02FORECAST20246814825.80820.5723.18962.1576687393530.70866185.16866187.3612.5286618TT-6.192101.80825333.7917086848420.7477144563750.259197233885761623151215WETL
2023-12-03 15:00:03FORECAST20246814825.23222.11823.67562.182125433340.728346855.038346857.2412.27834685TT-6.768104.23225333.8081145830520.756898051670.240922443681581613151212.5WETL
2023-12-03 11:00:03FORECAST20246814824.99820.85822.92863.732370191080.728346854.778346857.2912.06834685TT-7.00299.99825334.8459638479521.3405269249460.233703242061341613151212.5WETL
2023-12-03 07:00:05FORECAST20246814827.91423.50425.70962.3948942770890.728346854.608346857.4612.06834685TT-4.086104.91425333.9507999574120.8368248570920.331581871492031623151215WETL
2023-12-03 03:00:14FORECAST20246814825.80822.123.95466.9915476685961.153543935.133543937.6612.79354393TT-6.192101.80825337.0146181325722.5771308556420.259197233885761623151215WETL
2023-12-02 23:00:03FORECAST20246814825.95221.68623.81948.9414395513130.921260344.591260347.9412.53126034TT-6.04895.95225324.775308712215.8949711390970.263875219163231623151215WETL
2023-12-02 19:00:03FORECAST20246814827.12222.8224.97146.6523393898170.897638284.407638288.0612.46763828TT-4.878100.12225323.182650262215.0772266849320.3034080433741623151215WETL
2023-12-02 15:00:03FORECAST20246814828.36424.06226.21344.4877013254430.673228714.463228718.4112.87322871TT-3.636103.36425321.6680446643614.3102718969670.348038451279391623151215WETL
2023-12-02 11:00:03FORECAST20246814828.90423.21626.0648.9352631651430.598425524.208425528.8413.04842552TT-3.096101.90425324.7710238927415.8927555226040.368168116227831623151215WETL
2023-12-02 07:00:07FORECAST20246814828.72423.73826.23150.7501002143110.618110574.268110578.4312.69811057TT-3.276105.72425326.027165305616.5459113118470.361414714388531623151215WETL
2023-12-02 03:00:07FORECAST20246814826.92421.99224.45852.0531649318110.492126254.002126258.9112.91212625TT-5.07699.92425326.9255182704817.0175079229510.296534983450911623151215WETL
2023-12-01 23:00:03FORECAST20246814827.9524.6226.28544.723879430940.858268184.658268189.0813.73826818TT-4.05102.9525321.833704417714.393651793190.332887025301921623151215WETL
2023-12-01 19:00:04FORECAST20246814829.01224.3526.68143.0227723710140.846457154.856457158.6513.50645715TT-2.988106.01225320.6382931598513.7947483000470.372239947219381623151215WETL
2023-12-01 15:00:03FORECAST20246814826.94221.79424.36845.1572941607620.744094894.754094898.7913.54409489TT-5.05899.94225322.1374512388614.5468556457910.297156854128331623151215WETL
2023-12-01 11:00:03FORECAST20246814826.07822.20824.14352.0182963687730.480315224.770315229.1213.89031522TT-5.92291.07825326.9015180410617.0048600488620.268003428371151623151215WETL
2023-12-01 07:00:05FORECAST20246814829.1221.52425.32255.335118796960.822835094.902835099.2914.19283509TT-2.88104.1225329.1750165508418.2149386458320.376326107181581623151215WETL
2023-12-01 03:00:08FORECAST20246814827.2320.7523.9959.2817482801370.791339014.411339019.2113.62133901TT-4.7799.2325331.8553767259219.6729669084760.307186705930461623151215WETL
2023-11-30 23:00:04FORECAST20246814828.97621.43425.20553.0469844265981.078740744.408740748.5812.98874074TT-3.02499.97625327.608676953717.3786523843810.370881057227271623151215WETL
2023-11-30 19:00:04FORECAST20246814830.77620.37225.57447.2147719196790.503937284.093937289.5213.61393728TT-1.224104.77625323.5748254029715.2775115803510.440455571166711623151215WETL
2023-11-30 15:00:03FORECAST20246814832.75622.08227.41952.224788653690.870079214.790079219.7314.52007921TT0.756109.75625327.0436168762717.0797837719020.519086909947871633151217.5WETL
2023-11-30 11:00:03FORECAST20246814830.48820.6625.57451.5481699084790.456693164.036693169.9513.98669316TT-1.512109.48825326.5777197173616.8344837843140.429138767596441623151215WETL
2023-11-30 07:00:05FORECAST20246814832.59423.41428.00454.9884632734520.925197354.605197359.4414.04519735TT0.594110.59425328.9382986509518.0878115545990.512639782245081633151217.5WETL
2023-11-30 03:00:07FORECAST20246814834.50226.45630.47954.8084283239581.066929714.526929719.514.02692971TT2.502111.50225328.8152773589218.0218485609490.587911847112071633151217.5WETL
2023-11-29 23:00:03FORECAST20246814832.59424.9828.78751.4404020103660.858268184.738268188.3513.08826818TT0.59497.59425326.5034403786516.7954682308450.512639782245081633151217.5WETL
2023-11-29 19:00:03FORECAST20246814831.47823.21627.34761.2110185738270.799213034.599213038.2412.83921303TT-0.52299.47825333.1558984705420.392811889260.468226387002421623151215WETL
2023-11-29 15:00:03FORECAST20246814831.65826.25828.95855.1538094672781.039370644.859370647.5212.37937064TT-0.342105.65825329.0512332899318.1484290258460.475377596082671623151215WETL
2023-11-29 11:00:04FORECAST20246814833.1727.4130.2960.616950506061.633859154.503859156.611.10385915TT1.17103.1725332.7561158410220.1706610045240.535536283437481633151217.5WETL
2023-11-29 07:00:05FORECAST20246814831.38824.20627.79757.9617615645051.362205464.122205466.2110.33220546TT-0.61298.38825330.9618943080819.1831344048220.464654478563881623151215WETL
2023-11-29 03:00:05FORECAST20246814830.68623.48627.08657.3043048118361.1811034.9611036.311.261103TT-1.314101.68625330.5157512349118.9399753538780.43691339274121623151215WETL
2023-11-28 23:00:03FORECAST20246814830.5623.6327.09560.0228451308910.688976754.238976757.5511.78897675TT-1.4499.5625332.355704347819.9489349704360.431962889347571623151215WETL
2023-11-28 19:00:04FORECAST20246814829.40824.67427.04159.0342116138030.732283863.502283867.1210.62228386TT-2.59289.40825331.6880503989719.5809425570230.387289333706181623151215WETL
2023-11-28 15:00:04FORECAST20246814829.10224.5326.81664.8297705073010.893701274.193701277.2111.40370127TT-2.89887.10225335.578178866421.7554563231670.375644103463451623151215WETL
2023-11-28 11:00:03FORECAST20246814830.72225.01627.86967.2542828441160.7874023.7074027.611.307402TT-1.27892.72225337.1886612196622.6773815934960.438329673705221623151215WETL
2023-11-28 07:00:06FORECAST20246814831.02823.52227.27561.4288848327990.763779943.643779947.2310.87377994TT-0.97287.02825333.302362111520.4743924166470.45039815715921623151215WETL
2023-11-28 03:00:06FORECAST20246814835.02422.80228.91367.353319384610.720472832.430472837.9310.36047283TT3.02492.02425337.2542356422222.7151922470230.608069727131633151217.5WETL
2023-11-27 23:00:04FORECAST20246814824.0820.33622.20850.73366258889301.587.138.71TT-7.9277.0825326.0158139513316.539976303650.206569384763331613151212.5WETL
2023-11-27 19:00:05FORECAST20246814826.70824.63825.67354.89023366751401.527.138.65TT-5.29273.70825328.8711834736518.0518161073810.289119456748171623151215WETL
2023-11-27 15:00:04FORECAST20246814836.4133.09834.75457.5940563038640.086614222.666614228.1310.79661422TT4.41104.4125330.7124653002919.0470723468950.660074682824521633151217.5WETL
2023-11-27 11:00:04FORECAST20246814833.90833.3533.62975.237864609210.271653693.611653698.9212.53165369TT1.90893.90825342.4222003855125.7631151517930.56469108241941633151217.5WETL
2023-11-27 07:00:07FORECAST20246814833.83633.22433.5367.71006626240.271653693.231653698.211.43165369TT1.836107.83625337.4903094575622.8514912162890.561859544688861633151217.5WETL
2023-11-27 03:00:07FORECAST20246814834.30433.8934.09769.06564320650502.928.2911.21TT2.304105.30425338.3854012449123.3708053886710.580201527924631633151217.5WETL